8/5- Isaias Breaks Records...and the Heat

Good Wednesday all-

And a quiet Wednesday too! The next few days look very nice, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s, abundant sunshine, and light winds. It's a perfect day for storm cleanup, but please do so safely and RUN YOUR GENERATORS OUTSIDE...or else you're in big trouble. The next chance of rain comes Friday as a low pressure system moves up the East coast, but it doesn't look like anything especially widespread or more than a minor nuisance before a very nice weekend sets up as well.

I'll have a post on Isaias later tonight- including some pictures, so keep an eye out for that!!!

Irene, Sandy, Isaias- Today is One for the History Books

Good evening everyone-

Well, I was concerned about this storm early today as you know. I did not expect it to be necessarily this bad. As of 10:45 PM, this is the second biggest power outage event in Connecticut state history, trailing only the Halloween nor'easter of 2011. Roughly 700,000 people have lost power, and unfortunately when the numbers are that big, there is no way that these won't be prolonged. In fact, it is extremely likely that some will have no power for a week or more. 

The peak gust in Connecticut today was in West Haven, which measured a wind gust to 75mph- hurricane force! The storm in terms of wind was by far the worst since Gloria- Irene only had a peak gust of 50-60! But today was amazing for so many reasons that it's hard to begin to explain. 

In about a six hour timeframe, Connecticut has been ravaged by one of the worst storms in its' history. That is a fact. What contributed to this, and how so much damage occurred in essentially a 6-hour window, is something that will be studied relentlessly for years to come- there is no doubt about that. My thoughts and prayers go out to those who have lost family today in CT- which we know at least one person has died (in my hometown no less)- and to those who have severe damage to their houses, have no power, etc.

This has been an amazing day of weather for me personally as well. It's amazing what can happen when mother nature decides to unleash her wrath. 18 of 24 hours today were extremely ordinary, typical weather. 

But those other six hours will go down in history, and the memories of the events that took place in that timeframe will last for a lifetime. 700,000 is a number so high for power outages, it's truly hard to fathom. Hopefully the restoration goes smoothly and it's not too long, but I'm concerned.

Also, when paired with Fay earlier in the year, this is only the third time in history that multiple tropical cyclones have hit Connecticut in the same year- the others are 1954 (Carol and Edna) and 1985 (Henri and Gloria)

I'll write lots more tomorrow, but I leave you with this: today's storm had a maximum sustained wind of 70mph at its' closest approach to CT- barely below hurricane strength. It's nothing in the tropical world though. In 1938, a 120 mph sustained wind hurricane hit Connecticut directly. When that next happens- and it's not if but when- the damage we saw today will look like nothing. Let's hope it's a long way off.

And by the way, it's only very early August- barely the beginning of the season. We have a long few months to go. This is not going to be the last threat to the northeast this year. We'll be watching. 

Isaias To Pound CT Today, Biggest Storm in 8 Years

Good Tuesday all-

There are so many warnings, I could not list them all without taking up the entire page. The one that matters though is:

A **TROPICAL STORM WARNING** is up for all of Connecticut- an extremely rare event.

Well, that escalated quickly. Early yesterday, all the model tracks jumped about 50 miles west, which takes us out of the heaviest rain, but unfortunately that is very bad news as it puts us directly in line for the maximum wind of the storm. For now, Tropical Storm Isaias is a 70mph tropical storm, and it should be roughly that intensity when it arrives in New England later this afternoon. The worst of the weather today will occur between 1 and 9 PM, with winds gusting to 60-70 mph likely, especially along the shore. Expect widespread power outages, isolated downpours, and tornadoes. 

Folks, I cannot stress this enough- this is not Fay. This storm will be much more impactful- in fact, it is likely that the weather itself will be as bad, or worse than, it was during Irene and Sandy. Not to say the impact will necessarily be that bad, but the wind will be stronger. The good news is that the surge should be minimal, but that doesn't help if you lose power for an extended period inland, which some of you will. I know this isn't exactly the news you want to hear, but this is the truth.

This is a serious, serious event. Please prepare like you would for an Irene/Sandy type event. That's the level of trouble we are looking at here. Be safe all.

I'm Back...Tracking Isaias

Hi everyone-

First off, I cannot apologize enough for my year and a half absence from the blog. Life has been crazy for all of us for the last several months, and school has been busy...but still, that's no excuse. I promise I will update more often. Like, hopefully most days. 

Anyway, onto the main topic in the weather world right now, which is newly formed Tropical Storm Isaias (pronunced Ee-Sy-Ee-Us), currently located over Hispainola. Models are suggesting that this system will make a very close run on southern New England on Tuesday, and every possibility remains on the table from a few clouds, to a heavy rain and wind storm, to the biggest hurricane to hit New England since Bob in 1991. Hopefully we will have a better idea on the final result later today, but right now the center is very poorly defined as it is in the process of transitioning to an area north of the big islands. This is quite similar to what we saw Dorian do last year, but there are plenty of key differences to note: the first is that the environment is not quite as promising for strengthening due to shear, and it will move much faster. That said, a significant hurricane is likely to be over the Bahamas by Saturday. It will then be swept to the north and ultimately pass, most likely, within the 40/70 benchmark. This would result in at least a torrential rain event. The bigger problems, though, come if it can ride a bit farther west, which the Euro ensemble members are favoring, which would result in a Gloria-type track riding the coast all the way up and slamming the region as a category two hurricane. That's not exactly likely...but it's not impossible either, so we have to keep a very close eye on this. If nothing else, please review your hurricane plans as the already insanely active 2020 hurricane season continues to churn out storm after storm at record pace (we're nearly 3 weeks ahead of 2005, believe it or not!). In fact, Isaias is by far the earliest 9th named storm on record! It's actually quite likely that 2020 will go down as the second most active atlantic season ever recorded and exhaust the entire name list, requiring the use of the greek alphabet for only the second time ever. The 2005 record of 28 named storms, while unlikely, is not unreachable either considering the peak of the hurricane season is Aug/Sept/Oct. Should we get 5 named storms in each, then 2 in November, we would add another 17 named storms to the current 9...which is 26, and would get us to the fifth letter of the greek alphabet (Epsilon). That said, any of these months have had as many as 8 tropical systems form in them, so even if two have 6, we would tie the record...or if a third forms in November (there were 3 in November and 1 in December in 2005). So while a reach to be sure...not impossible!

At this time, the odds of the following in central Connecticut are as follows:

Nothing at all: 10%

A glancing blow, with showery weather and a few gusts: 20%

Heavy Rain, wind (like Hanna in 2008): 45%

A major strike that rivals Irene, Sandy, Gloria, etc: 25%

Why is the heavy rain and wind the most likely scenario? Because the wind field is huge! In fact, so big that even if it passed over the 40/70 benchmark (about 200 mi SE of Cape Cod)- we would still be feeling tropical storm force winds! So that suggests to me that at least some pretty gusty wind and rain is quite likely.

We have to watch this. It's the biggest threat to SNE from a hurricane since Sandy. But we'll see how it goes!