Good evening everyone-
I'm here with an update on what is going to be a massive and potentially damaging storm to Connecticut on Sunday evening.
This has come up very quickly on models- as recently as 36 hours ago, there was no indication of this, but now the system is seemingly getting more significant with each passing run.
Right now, we have two distinct model camps- the GFS/Canadian model and the European/UK model. Based on the fact that this is a very similar setup to what delivered Hurricane Sandy to New Jersey...and the success of the European model in the past...I'm more inclined to believe the more western camp of models. Should the eastern models varify (and most meteorologists, including myself, believe this to be rather unlikely)--you can cut all the wind values I am about to post roughly in half. I am fairly comfortable with my forecast though- the GFS was in the western camp earlier today, and the 18z run is notorious for producing garbage solutions, so here we go.
Timing: Rain should arrive sometime early Sunday afternoon and last for roughly a full day, ending early to mid-afternoon on Monday.
MAJOR THREATS
1. Heavy Rain- This is going to happen even if the eastern outliers are correct. Extremely intense rainfall is going to happen Sunday night, with 3-6" of rain widespread...with locally higher amounts possible. The ground is already saturated thanks to the biggest rainstorm CT has seen in six years Tuesday...but this may surpass it too!
2. Strong to Damaging Wind- This is highly, highly dependent on track. If it goes east, as I was saying, you can cut these numbers by one third to one half. For now, I think most areas on the shoreline will experience near or above Tropical Storm conditions, or a sustained wind of 40mph, for at least a few hours. Inland, it's likely to be more in the 25-35mph range as a general rule. The real fun, however, is in the gusts. Computer models have been massively aggressive on these, especially the European run this afternoon (which puts the storm over NYC). Using a general compromise of the data I've been looking at, I would expect peak gusts to be between 45 and 65mph. It wouldn't shock me if a shoreline town hit 70mph. The Euro is significantly more agressive than this, showing hurricane force gusts for more than half of the entire state, which...yeah that would be pretty darn bad. For reference, the peak wind gust in CT during Hurricane Irene was 65mph, and the peak wind gust during Sandy in our state was 85mph. Thus...something between the two seems most likely at the moment.
3. Storm Surge- Again, this is highly dependent on the exact track our system takes, but if it passes to our west ala the Euro, water would be given the chance to pile into LIS from east to west, ultimately causing a fairly significant amount of coastal flooding and damage. Fortunately, the difference is that this storm is NOT coming at an astronomical high tide by any stretch. Regardless of track though, thanks to the weaker system and smaller size, this will NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN SANDY/IRENE UNLESS SOMETHING MAJOR CHANGES.
In summary, what do I think the actual impact will be perceived as? Ultimately, a Euro-type storm would produce Sandy/Irene type impacts with massive power outages, trees down, and coastal flooding and erosion- Cosey Beach are you listening? One very trustworthy local meteorologist put it best this afternoon. He was asked on twitter "Will this be as bad as Sandy?". His response was, essentially, as a whole, not even close. In individual local areas though...yes, it could be. I couldn't agree more. This storm will not have the 1000 mile windfield or the devastating storm surge we saw five years ago on the Jersey/NYC/CT shoreline. That said, we look to be perfectly in the windfield, set up for some coastal flooding, and get another half foot of rain into an already saturated ground. The damage could be significant. My advice...prepare for this system as you would prepare for a hurricane. There is a scenario in which you could be out of power for several days...and you'd always rather be safe than sorry.
I'll have a full update tomorrow morning with the latest on this major, major storm.
^^^The 12z Euro putting a storm with the minimum pressure equivalent of a category 1 hurricane directly into Manhattan. This is the worst possible outcome for tropical systems in CT, and would result in a historic event, with extreme power outages and significant damage.
^^^18z GFS, much farther east than the Euro, however the run before this showed...
^^^12z GFS, showing nearly the exact same thing as the Euro.
Which one is right? Take your pick. The worst of the three would be the Euro- the 12z GFS is actually "too direct" of a hit for extreme wind in CT, as the strongest wind would be over Cape Cod and eastern MA if it verified.
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Friday, October 20, 2017
10/20- Major Rainstorm for Tuesday
Happy Friday everyone-
There is no change to the forecast I gave earlier this week for the next three days. However, there is one issue in the forecast now- and that is Tuesday. It truly looks like a total washout starting mid afternoon, with heavy rain pretty much all day thanks to a low that will develop along a cold front and ride the coastline all the way up into southern New England. As a general rule, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain can be expected, with highs then proceeding to go from the mid 70s to the low 60s- quite a significant dropoff and near the average temperature for this time of year.
^^A very wet Tuesday afternoon and evening
If the World Series is played at Yankee Stadium next weekend, the weather looks dry with average temperatures- generally the mid to upper 50s around gametime. A early look at Halloween suggests fiendishly below average temperatures with highs in the upper 40s or low 50s with dry conditions.
There is no change to the forecast I gave earlier this week for the next three days. However, there is one issue in the forecast now- and that is Tuesday. It truly looks like a total washout starting mid afternoon, with heavy rain pretty much all day thanks to a low that will develop along a cold front and ride the coastline all the way up into southern New England. As a general rule, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain can be expected, with highs then proceeding to go from the mid 70s to the low 60s- quite a significant dropoff and near the average temperature for this time of year.
^^A very wet Tuesday afternoon and evening
If the World Series is played at Yankee Stadium next weekend, the weather looks dry with average temperatures- generally the mid to upper 50s around gametime. A early look at Halloween suggests fiendishly below average temperatures with highs in the upper 40s or low 50s with dry conditions.
Monday, October 16, 2017
10/16- Beautiful Week
Good Monday all-
Not much to talk about in the weather world today- although Hurricane Ophelia is hitting Ireland this morning...but we're dry and sunny until, well...a really long time from now. In fact, I expect sunny conditions and slightly above average temperatures until Saturday...well except tomorrow, which will feature temperatures stuck in the mid-50s through the entire afternoon. Otherwise, I have nothing to talk about- I just wanted to post something here- so get out there and enjoy a wonderful October week!
Not much to talk about in the weather world today- although Hurricane Ophelia is hitting Ireland this morning...but we're dry and sunny until, well...a really long time from now. In fact, I expect sunny conditions and slightly above average temperatures until Saturday...well except tomorrow, which will feature temperatures stuck in the mid-50s through the entire afternoon. Otherwise, I have nothing to talk about- I just wanted to post something here- so get out there and enjoy a wonderful October week!
Monday, October 9, 2017
10/9- Remnants of Nate
Greetings all-
Apologies for my extended absence from this blog. One of my dogs was eaten by a coyote last weekend and I was dealing with that for quite some time.
I'm back now though, but unfortunately I bring Hurricane Nate's remnants with me, which means that pouring rain is expected for the vast majority of the day today. This could impact the baseball games scheduled for this afternoon at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, and could be highly significant as these are playoff games but we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Regardless, tomorrow looks much better, with highs generally in the upper 70s and moderate humidity...but a strong cold front will move through in the late afternoon tomorrow. This will come through dry, but the temperatures will be a good 10-15 degrees cooler on Wednesday with a risk of showers in the afternoon thanks to a frontal system stalled just to our south. The clouds will stick around for Thursday- though I think we get through most of the day dry, but showers are likely Thursday morning. We finally clear things out completely for Friday, and then we get back to the warmer weather Saturday.
Long range models suggest a major cold snap in roughly two weeks. Be ready- this could feature the first flakes of '17-'18.
Apologies for my extended absence from this blog. One of my dogs was eaten by a coyote last weekend and I was dealing with that for quite some time.
I'm back now though, but unfortunately I bring Hurricane Nate's remnants with me, which means that pouring rain is expected for the vast majority of the day today. This could impact the baseball games scheduled for this afternoon at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, and could be highly significant as these are playoff games but we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Regardless, tomorrow looks much better, with highs generally in the upper 70s and moderate humidity...but a strong cold front will move through in the late afternoon tomorrow. This will come through dry, but the temperatures will be a good 10-15 degrees cooler on Wednesday with a risk of showers in the afternoon thanks to a frontal system stalled just to our south. The clouds will stick around for Thursday- though I think we get through most of the day dry, but showers are likely Thursday morning. We finally clear things out completely for Friday, and then we get back to the warmer weather Saturday.
Long range models suggest a major cold snap in roughly two weeks. Be ready- this could feature the first flakes of '17-'18.
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