Good Wednesday all-
I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and was able to enjoy the time spent with friends and family.
Among the many stories of the next week or so, one that will take the most time to talk about is the cold weather. In fact, the potential exists for this to be the coldest ten day stretch ever recorded at BDL, as we may not see temperatures hit 20 degrees not just today...but until well into 2018. Yak! Well, what can you do except shake your head and keep the heat on and stay warm. For what it's worth, the overnight lows look to feature many nights with temperatures close to or even below zero degrees. Yeah, so not good. Bundle up this week and next! Another storm threat appears to lie around Friday 1/5. Which, go figure, I have a flight on that day to Austin, TX to attend the meteorology conference there from the 8th to the 11th...so that's a high-risk forecast for me personally too!
There also remains a snow threat for the morning of New Year's Eve. Of our two major models, one has consistently suggested a major snowstorm for New England (the Euro) while another (the GFS) has no storm anywhere within 1000 miles. The Canadian model is closer to the Euro, forecasting a general 4 to 8" of snow lasting from about 9 PM on Saturday to 3 PM on NYE. Lovely. That's extremely unhelpful to say the least, so we have to watch this very closely over the next few days as we begin to get a better picture.
Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Monday, December 25, 2017
12/25- Gee, thanks Computer
Greetings-
I'm baack- sorry it took so long, but this time it wasn't nmy fault- my computer underwent a fatal hard drive error about two weeks ago and thus I have been unable to update.
That said, I'm back! And I'm glad to be- I just got a new, fancy laptop for Christmas and I'm loving it!
Now, the weather is very festive, with a moderate amount of snow having fallen across most of Connecticut this morning. In Naugatuck, it seems I have picked up roughly 3", which brings my annual snowfall up to 15"- about one third of the average annual snowfall in the last two weeks, beginning with Winter Storm Ali dropping 7" on me on December 10. Since then, a series of 2 or 3" snowfalls has improved my totals up dramatically.
Now, onto the more important part of the weather- a frigid (and I mean frigid) week ahead, featuring temperatures of 15 or so for highs and near to possibly sub-zero lows by the middle of the week. The next chance for snow is next weekend, and the threat appears to be pretty substantial, so we certainly have to keep a close eye on it as we approach new year's eve. For what it's worth, January looks to feature below average temperatures with at least average amounts of snowfall.
I wish everyone the very merriest of Christmases and hope you enjoy the last week of 2017!
I'm baack- sorry it took so long, but this time it wasn't nmy fault- my computer underwent a fatal hard drive error about two weeks ago and thus I have been unable to update.
That said, I'm back! And I'm glad to be- I just got a new, fancy laptop for Christmas and I'm loving it!
Now, the weather is very festive, with a moderate amount of snow having fallen across most of Connecticut this morning. In Naugatuck, it seems I have picked up roughly 3", which brings my annual snowfall up to 15"- about one third of the average annual snowfall in the last two weeks, beginning with Winter Storm Ali dropping 7" on me on December 10. Since then, a series of 2 or 3" snowfalls has improved my totals up dramatically.
Now, onto the more important part of the weather- a frigid (and I mean frigid) week ahead, featuring temperatures of 15 or so for highs and near to possibly sub-zero lows by the middle of the week. The next chance for snow is next weekend, and the threat appears to be pretty substantial, so we certainly have to keep a close eye on it as we approach new year's eve. For what it's worth, January looks to feature below average temperatures with at least average amounts of snowfall.
I wish everyone the very merriest of Christmases and hope you enjoy the last week of 2017!
Thursday, November 30, 2017
11.30- Goodbye Hurricane Season, Hello Winter!
Good Thursday all-
Sorry for not updating lately, but there was nothing to talk about. Homework and school have been really tough this semester and I apologize for not having updated nearly as much as I have in the past. For far more regular updates, I highly recommend that you follow me on twitter- @stevectweather.
No storms are on the immediate horizon at this time, but certainly the odds look to increase by next weekend. Obviously that's still way, way out there and things will change, but the pattern looks to be locked and loaded for about a month and a half once we get through a week or so.
Thus, I'll do this for my winter snowfall predictions as we head into meteorological winter
BDL: 78.5"- this total would be 33" above average and the 7th snowiest winter on record
BDR: 56.5"
I'm going with these bullish forecasts because of the pattern setup. The winters that compare most to the current pattern are 2005-2006, which featured 69.9"...and 2010-11 which had 86.4" (and is the second snowiest on record). Thus, I'll go with a blend of the two results and obtain this value. Even if the 05-06 result verifies, we'd be knocking at the door of a top 10 year, so the outlook is promising for snow lovers.
Today...November 30, 2017...marks the end of what has been a downright historic and devastating hurricane season that will be remembered forever alongside the other great hurricane seasons of 1995, 2004, and 2005. The final totals for this hyperactive year were (barring some December weirdness) 17 named storms...10 hurricanes...6 major hurricanes...and 2 category 5's (this is just the 6th year ever recorded that this has happened). Also, Jose was literally 1mph shy of cat 5 intensity as well, so we were extremely close to having this become just the second year ever to have three category 5 storms.
Needless to say, the most memorable storms this year were Harvey, Irma, and Maria. All three of these names will undoubtedly be retired and replaced by the time this list is reused six years from now in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Here in CT, we were impacted indirectly by Tropical Storm Philippe, which ended up producing a powerful hurricane-type storm over CT and did a massive amount of damage on October 29.
Many records were set this season including: Most damaging season on record by USD ($369 billion), 2nd longest time consecutively spent as a category 5 hurricane (Irma, 3 days), strongest hurricane over the open Atlantic (Irma, 914mb), strongest April tropical cyclone (Arlene, 990mb), 2nd highest windspeed in the Atlantic basin in a hurricane (Irma, 185mph), fastest time from a tropical depression to a category 5 hurricane (Maria, 30 hours), tied for the 9th most active season on record by named storms (17), longest time a hurricane has had sustained winds greater than or equal to 185 mph (Irma, 37 hours), and the big one that many (myself included) thought would never fall- costliest tropical cyclone on record: Harvey ($198 billion), passing Katrina by a wide margin.
What a year. Let's hope 2018 is significantly less active. As for my preseason prediction review, I went 15-7-4...that actually was pretty close! I'll take it!
Today we say goodbye to meteorological fall and hello to winter. Have fun with the snow. I'll update here when a significant storm is on the horizon. Until then!
Sorry for not updating lately, but there was nothing to talk about. Homework and school have been really tough this semester and I apologize for not having updated nearly as much as I have in the past. For far more regular updates, I highly recommend that you follow me on twitter- @stevectweather.
No storms are on the immediate horizon at this time, but certainly the odds look to increase by next weekend. Obviously that's still way, way out there and things will change, but the pattern looks to be locked and loaded for about a month and a half once we get through a week or so.
Thus, I'll do this for my winter snowfall predictions as we head into meteorological winter
BDL: 78.5"- this total would be 33" above average and the 7th snowiest winter on record
BDR: 56.5"
I'm going with these bullish forecasts because of the pattern setup. The winters that compare most to the current pattern are 2005-2006, which featured 69.9"...and 2010-11 which had 86.4" (and is the second snowiest on record). Thus, I'll go with a blend of the two results and obtain this value. Even if the 05-06 result verifies, we'd be knocking at the door of a top 10 year, so the outlook is promising for snow lovers.
Today...November 30, 2017...marks the end of what has been a downright historic and devastating hurricane season that will be remembered forever alongside the other great hurricane seasons of 1995, 2004, and 2005. The final totals for this hyperactive year were (barring some December weirdness) 17 named storms...10 hurricanes...6 major hurricanes...and 2 category 5's (this is just the 6th year ever recorded that this has happened). Also, Jose was literally 1mph shy of cat 5 intensity as well, so we were extremely close to having this become just the second year ever to have three category 5 storms.
Needless to say, the most memorable storms this year were Harvey, Irma, and Maria. All three of these names will undoubtedly be retired and replaced by the time this list is reused six years from now in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Here in CT, we were impacted indirectly by Tropical Storm Philippe, which ended up producing a powerful hurricane-type storm over CT and did a massive amount of damage on October 29.
Many records were set this season including: Most damaging season on record by USD ($369 billion), 2nd longest time consecutively spent as a category 5 hurricane (Irma, 3 days), strongest hurricane over the open Atlantic (Irma, 914mb), strongest April tropical cyclone (Arlene, 990mb), 2nd highest windspeed in the Atlantic basin in a hurricane (Irma, 185mph), fastest time from a tropical depression to a category 5 hurricane (Maria, 30 hours), tied for the 9th most active season on record by named storms (17), longest time a hurricane has had sustained winds greater than or equal to 185 mph (Irma, 37 hours), and the big one that many (myself included) thought would never fall- costliest tropical cyclone on record: Harvey ($198 billion), passing Katrina by a wide margin.
What a year. Let's hope 2018 is significantly less active. As for my preseason prediction review, I went 15-7-4...that actually was pretty close! I'll take it!
Today we say goodbye to meteorological fall and hello to winter. Have fun with the snow. I'll update here when a significant storm is on the horizon. Until then!
Saturday, November 4, 2017
11/4- Update, Cold Weather Incoming
Good Saturday everyone-
The weather is taking a turn for the chillier this week, as we will actually be below average by a fairly significant margin for most of the next 7 days. Highs likely will be primarily in the 50s, but next weekend looks like it could feature highs as low as the upper 30s! Snow is possible as well around that timeframe, but it would be a few "mood flakes" in all likelihood and nothing accumulating. There is a small chance of something more significant, but the odds of 2"+ of snow are something like 5% at the current time, which is extremely low. It's just tough to do that in early November, but it's a sign of the times for sure.
Remember to set your clocks back tonight!
The weather is taking a turn for the chillier this week, as we will actually be below average by a fairly significant margin for most of the next 7 days. Highs likely will be primarily in the 50s, but next weekend looks like it could feature highs as low as the upper 30s! Snow is possible as well around that timeframe, but it would be a few "mood flakes" in all likelihood and nothing accumulating. There is a small chance of something more significant, but the odds of 2"+ of snow are something like 5% at the current time, which is extremely low. It's just tough to do that in early November, but it's a sign of the times for sure.
Remember to set your clocks back tonight!
Thursday, October 26, 2017
10/26- The Curse of October 29th Strikes Again- MAJOR Storm Likely
Good evening everyone-
I'm here with an update on what is going to be a massive and potentially damaging storm to Connecticut on Sunday evening.
This has come up very quickly on models- as recently as 36 hours ago, there was no indication of this, but now the system is seemingly getting more significant with each passing run.
Right now, we have two distinct model camps- the GFS/Canadian model and the European/UK model. Based on the fact that this is a very similar setup to what delivered Hurricane Sandy to New Jersey...and the success of the European model in the past...I'm more inclined to believe the more western camp of models. Should the eastern models varify (and most meteorologists, including myself, believe this to be rather unlikely)--you can cut all the wind values I am about to post roughly in half. I am fairly comfortable with my forecast though- the GFS was in the western camp earlier today, and the 18z run is notorious for producing garbage solutions, so here we go.
Timing: Rain should arrive sometime early Sunday afternoon and last for roughly a full day, ending early to mid-afternoon on Monday.
MAJOR THREATS
1. Heavy Rain- This is going to happen even if the eastern outliers are correct. Extremely intense rainfall is going to happen Sunday night, with 3-6" of rain widespread...with locally higher amounts possible. The ground is already saturated thanks to the biggest rainstorm CT has seen in six years Tuesday...but this may surpass it too!
2. Strong to Damaging Wind- This is highly, highly dependent on track. If it goes east, as I was saying, you can cut these numbers by one third to one half. For now, I think most areas on the shoreline will experience near or above Tropical Storm conditions, or a sustained wind of 40mph, for at least a few hours. Inland, it's likely to be more in the 25-35mph range as a general rule. The real fun, however, is in the gusts. Computer models have been massively aggressive on these, especially the European run this afternoon (which puts the storm over NYC). Using a general compromise of the data I've been looking at, I would expect peak gusts to be between 45 and 65mph. It wouldn't shock me if a shoreline town hit 70mph. The Euro is significantly more agressive than this, showing hurricane force gusts for more than half of the entire state, which...yeah that would be pretty darn bad. For reference, the peak wind gust in CT during Hurricane Irene was 65mph, and the peak wind gust during Sandy in our state was 85mph. Thus...something between the two seems most likely at the moment.
3. Storm Surge- Again, this is highly dependent on the exact track our system takes, but if it passes to our west ala the Euro, water would be given the chance to pile into LIS from east to west, ultimately causing a fairly significant amount of coastal flooding and damage. Fortunately, the difference is that this storm is NOT coming at an astronomical high tide by any stretch. Regardless of track though, thanks to the weaker system and smaller size, this will NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN SANDY/IRENE UNLESS SOMETHING MAJOR CHANGES.
In summary, what do I think the actual impact will be perceived as? Ultimately, a Euro-type storm would produce Sandy/Irene type impacts with massive power outages, trees down, and coastal flooding and erosion- Cosey Beach are you listening? One very trustworthy local meteorologist put it best this afternoon. He was asked on twitter "Will this be as bad as Sandy?". His response was, essentially, as a whole, not even close. In individual local areas though...yes, it could be. I couldn't agree more. This storm will not have the 1000 mile windfield or the devastating storm surge we saw five years ago on the Jersey/NYC/CT shoreline. That said, we look to be perfectly in the windfield, set up for some coastal flooding, and get another half foot of rain into an already saturated ground. The damage could be significant. My advice...prepare for this system as you would prepare for a hurricane. There is a scenario in which you could be out of power for several days...and you'd always rather be safe than sorry.
I'll have a full update tomorrow morning with the latest on this major, major storm.
^^^The 12z Euro putting a storm with the minimum pressure equivalent of a category 1 hurricane directly into Manhattan. This is the worst possible outcome for tropical systems in CT, and would result in a historic event, with extreme power outages and significant damage.
^^^18z GFS, much farther east than the Euro, however the run before this showed...
^^^12z GFS, showing nearly the exact same thing as the Euro.
Which one is right? Take your pick. The worst of the three would be the Euro- the 12z GFS is actually "too direct" of a hit for extreme wind in CT, as the strongest wind would be over Cape Cod and eastern MA if it verified.
I'm here with an update on what is going to be a massive and potentially damaging storm to Connecticut on Sunday evening.
This has come up very quickly on models- as recently as 36 hours ago, there was no indication of this, but now the system is seemingly getting more significant with each passing run.
Right now, we have two distinct model camps- the GFS/Canadian model and the European/UK model. Based on the fact that this is a very similar setup to what delivered Hurricane Sandy to New Jersey...and the success of the European model in the past...I'm more inclined to believe the more western camp of models. Should the eastern models varify (and most meteorologists, including myself, believe this to be rather unlikely)--you can cut all the wind values I am about to post roughly in half. I am fairly comfortable with my forecast though- the GFS was in the western camp earlier today, and the 18z run is notorious for producing garbage solutions, so here we go.
Timing: Rain should arrive sometime early Sunday afternoon and last for roughly a full day, ending early to mid-afternoon on Monday.
MAJOR THREATS
1. Heavy Rain- This is going to happen even if the eastern outliers are correct. Extremely intense rainfall is going to happen Sunday night, with 3-6" of rain widespread...with locally higher amounts possible. The ground is already saturated thanks to the biggest rainstorm CT has seen in six years Tuesday...but this may surpass it too!
2. Strong to Damaging Wind- This is highly, highly dependent on track. If it goes east, as I was saying, you can cut these numbers by one third to one half. For now, I think most areas on the shoreline will experience near or above Tropical Storm conditions, or a sustained wind of 40mph, for at least a few hours. Inland, it's likely to be more in the 25-35mph range as a general rule. The real fun, however, is in the gusts. Computer models have been massively aggressive on these, especially the European run this afternoon (which puts the storm over NYC). Using a general compromise of the data I've been looking at, I would expect peak gusts to be between 45 and 65mph. It wouldn't shock me if a shoreline town hit 70mph. The Euro is significantly more agressive than this, showing hurricane force gusts for more than half of the entire state, which...yeah that would be pretty darn bad. For reference, the peak wind gust in CT during Hurricane Irene was 65mph, and the peak wind gust during Sandy in our state was 85mph. Thus...something between the two seems most likely at the moment.
3. Storm Surge- Again, this is highly dependent on the exact track our system takes, but if it passes to our west ala the Euro, water would be given the chance to pile into LIS from east to west, ultimately causing a fairly significant amount of coastal flooding and damage. Fortunately, the difference is that this storm is NOT coming at an astronomical high tide by any stretch. Regardless of track though, thanks to the weaker system and smaller size, this will NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN SANDY/IRENE UNLESS SOMETHING MAJOR CHANGES.
In summary, what do I think the actual impact will be perceived as? Ultimately, a Euro-type storm would produce Sandy/Irene type impacts with massive power outages, trees down, and coastal flooding and erosion- Cosey Beach are you listening? One very trustworthy local meteorologist put it best this afternoon. He was asked on twitter "Will this be as bad as Sandy?". His response was, essentially, as a whole, not even close. In individual local areas though...yes, it could be. I couldn't agree more. This storm will not have the 1000 mile windfield or the devastating storm surge we saw five years ago on the Jersey/NYC/CT shoreline. That said, we look to be perfectly in the windfield, set up for some coastal flooding, and get another half foot of rain into an already saturated ground. The damage could be significant. My advice...prepare for this system as you would prepare for a hurricane. There is a scenario in which you could be out of power for several days...and you'd always rather be safe than sorry.
I'll have a full update tomorrow morning with the latest on this major, major storm.
^^^The 12z Euro putting a storm with the minimum pressure equivalent of a category 1 hurricane directly into Manhattan. This is the worst possible outcome for tropical systems in CT, and would result in a historic event, with extreme power outages and significant damage.
^^^18z GFS, much farther east than the Euro, however the run before this showed...
^^^12z GFS, showing nearly the exact same thing as the Euro.
Which one is right? Take your pick. The worst of the three would be the Euro- the 12z GFS is actually "too direct" of a hit for extreme wind in CT, as the strongest wind would be over Cape Cod and eastern MA if it verified.
Friday, October 20, 2017
10/20- Major Rainstorm for Tuesday
Happy Friday everyone-
There is no change to the forecast I gave earlier this week for the next three days. However, there is one issue in the forecast now- and that is Tuesday. It truly looks like a total washout starting mid afternoon, with heavy rain pretty much all day thanks to a low that will develop along a cold front and ride the coastline all the way up into southern New England. As a general rule, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain can be expected, with highs then proceeding to go from the mid 70s to the low 60s- quite a significant dropoff and near the average temperature for this time of year.
^^A very wet Tuesday afternoon and evening
If the World Series is played at Yankee Stadium next weekend, the weather looks dry with average temperatures- generally the mid to upper 50s around gametime. A early look at Halloween suggests fiendishly below average temperatures with highs in the upper 40s or low 50s with dry conditions.
There is no change to the forecast I gave earlier this week for the next three days. However, there is one issue in the forecast now- and that is Tuesday. It truly looks like a total washout starting mid afternoon, with heavy rain pretty much all day thanks to a low that will develop along a cold front and ride the coastline all the way up into southern New England. As a general rule, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain can be expected, with highs then proceeding to go from the mid 70s to the low 60s- quite a significant dropoff and near the average temperature for this time of year.
^^A very wet Tuesday afternoon and evening
If the World Series is played at Yankee Stadium next weekend, the weather looks dry with average temperatures- generally the mid to upper 50s around gametime. A early look at Halloween suggests fiendishly below average temperatures with highs in the upper 40s or low 50s with dry conditions.
Monday, October 16, 2017
10/16- Beautiful Week
Good Monday all-
Not much to talk about in the weather world today- although Hurricane Ophelia is hitting Ireland this morning...but we're dry and sunny until, well...a really long time from now. In fact, I expect sunny conditions and slightly above average temperatures until Saturday...well except tomorrow, which will feature temperatures stuck in the mid-50s through the entire afternoon. Otherwise, I have nothing to talk about- I just wanted to post something here- so get out there and enjoy a wonderful October week!
Not much to talk about in the weather world today- although Hurricane Ophelia is hitting Ireland this morning...but we're dry and sunny until, well...a really long time from now. In fact, I expect sunny conditions and slightly above average temperatures until Saturday...well except tomorrow, which will feature temperatures stuck in the mid-50s through the entire afternoon. Otherwise, I have nothing to talk about- I just wanted to post something here- so get out there and enjoy a wonderful October week!
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