Friday, February 28, 2014
*CRITICAL MONDAY STORM UPDATE- NOT FOR SNOW LOVERS
Looking at the new data, not good if you like snow. Have to see the new runs, but if nothing else my numbers drop drastically with this one. As of now, doesn't look like more than 4-8" but that could certainly change. Midnight runs tonight are going to be crucial with storm now over land. Next model run at 1030.
2/28- In which snow lovers rejoice!
Good morning everyone and Happy Friday!!!!
The southward trend I was concerned about on the models last night has stopped entirely...and a major to historical snowstorm is now very likely for Monday's timeframe. My numbers appear they were correct the entire time...and I hold steady with my predictions for today. On another note, it is COOOLD this morning and I hope everyone bundles up! Wind chills today are probably going to be below 0 all day and it will certainly feel like the approaching storm. There is now no situation in which I could envision schools being open on Monday if the storm comes as predicted and there is a high chance...90 percent...of a snow day on Monday- with only a 10 percent chance of the storm missing. If trends continue, I may be comfortable calling the snow day later today. I will update again later today after examining the 12z and 18z model runs at about 6 PM this evening. Until then, enjoy the end of the work/school week!
Today in weather history- February 28, 2012- A major snowstorm hits Greece of all places, where Athens drops to 36 degrees...
The southward trend I was concerned about on the models last night has stopped entirely...and a major to historical snowstorm is now very likely for Monday's timeframe. My numbers appear they were correct the entire time...and I hold steady with my predictions for today. On another note, it is COOOLD this morning and I hope everyone bundles up! Wind chills today are probably going to be below 0 all day and it will certainly feel like the approaching storm. There is now no situation in which I could envision schools being open on Monday if the storm comes as predicted and there is a high chance...90 percent...of a snow day on Monday- with only a 10 percent chance of the storm missing. If trends continue, I may be comfortable calling the snow day later today. I will update again later today after examining the 12z and 18z model runs at about 6 PM this evening. Until then, enjoy the end of the work/school week!
Today in weather history- February 28, 2012- A major snowstorm hits Greece of all places, where Athens drops to 36 degrees...
Thursday, February 27, 2014
From WFSB
This is exactly as I see it right now
Snow will likely develop Sunday night as a storm moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. More snow is likely on Monday and it could really add up. The Monday morning commute could be adversely impacted and perhaps the evening commute as well. The snow may not end until Monday night. How much snow we'll have to plow and shovel on Monday will depend on the exact storm track, as usual. One of our computer guidance models, the GFS, is putting out more than 0.75" of liquid equivalent for portions of the state. That means there is the potential for more than 6" of snow. However, if the storm takes a more southerly track, snowfall totals will be less. This is something we'll have to watch closely tomorrow and throughout the weekend.
I 100% agree with the above. I really did speak too soon with amounts. At this stage I encourage you to not listen to anybody's maps until Sat PM...The numbers I put out are generally the highest possible impact because I have found most people want to prepare for and expect the worst and then be happy if/when it turns out to be less. For what it is worth though, the 18z GFS model shows the biggest snowstorm yet for any model run in the last week for Connecticut with over 2 feet in most areas. Way too many unknowns at this point- stay tuned! I shall stay put on numbers because of consistency for the time being
Snow will likely develop Sunday night as a storm moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. More snow is likely on Monday and it could really add up. The Monday morning commute could be adversely impacted and perhaps the evening commute as well. The snow may not end until Monday night. How much snow we'll have to plow and shovel on Monday will depend on the exact storm track, as usual. One of our computer guidance models, the GFS, is putting out more than 0.75" of liquid equivalent for portions of the state. That means there is the potential for more than 6" of snow. However, if the storm takes a more southerly track, snowfall totals will be less. This is something we'll have to watch closely tomorrow and throughout the weekend.
I 100% agree with the above. I really did speak too soon with amounts. At this stage I encourage you to not listen to anybody's maps until Sat PM...The numbers I put out are generally the highest possible impact because I have found most people want to prepare for and expect the worst and then be happy if/when it turns out to be less. For what it is worth though, the 18z GFS model shows the biggest snowstorm yet for any model run in the last week for Connecticut with over 2 feet in most areas. Way too many unknowns at this point- stay tuned! I shall stay put on numbers because of consistency for the time being
Update on Monday
Could be a bit less than I was saying if current trends continue. Look I'll admit it- I am a fool to put out numbers so early. Will I continue doing so? Yes, but the fact remains that they will likely be dramatically shifted between now and the storm. I hold put for now, but don't be shocked if I come in lower tomorrow morning than I was this morning as the storm now looks to be trending so far south that it reduces the amount of snow we get. We'll see...but for now enjoy your evening!
2/27- Get ready for Franklin!
Good morning everyone- the snowstorm for next week is becoming more clear as I suspected. It seems the precipitation is now stronger and, although it is still a long duration event, there is enough of a lull on Tues that I think we'll only get one or two snow days out of this one, but make no mistake- this is going to probably be the season's biggest snowstorm so far. In fact, preliminary snowfall forecasts lead me to say roughly 14-25" with locally as much as 30" is a distinct possibility due to the slow-moving nature of what is going to be a classic New England nor'easter with block- the setup that produces the biggest possible snowstorm. This 14-25" region-wide is my first official forecast for the storm...but is very subject to change. I can also say with 70-80% confidence that schools will be closed on Monday, and either delayed or closed on Tuesday. Some computer models also indicate a second round of 5-10" of additional snow Tuesday night, which could effect schools on Wednesday, but the second round is too far out to make a call on. Either way, make no mistake- this storm will certainly be Franklin, and Winter Storm Watches should be coming out later tonight or tomorrow. My forecast confidence in this outcome is 75%. To make matters worse, that ushers in freezing air and we may be back below zero by next week. I have no clue what the last time CT had below 0 temps in March was, but it certainly isn't recent! Stay warm today and next week all!
Today in weather history- February 27, 1991- Bishop, California recieves 0.04" of rain. The significance? It was the first measurable precipitation there in 156 days!
Today in weather history- February 27, 1991- Bishop, California recieves 0.04" of rain. The significance? It was the first measurable precipitation there in 156 days!
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Oddball storm becoming more likely...could last for days...
I am updating tonight because I think it is safe to say an oddball snowstorm is likely for yes, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Weds morning, according to the new models. Even though this storm would never actually produce heavy snow, obviously a .5"/hour snowfall in a 72 hour period could produce several feet of snow, so stay tuned!
2/26- Oddball snowstorm becoming likely quickly...
Good morning all and Happy Wednesday!
Today's storm stayed out to sea as predicted, but frigid temperatures are the tradeoff we get for it! The arctic high pressure system that deflected the storm is firmly in place and that's why we deal with temps that will leave you shivering the next few days- bundle up! Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday is when things get interesting, if not complex. I can already tell this is going to be an odd, bizzare, strange, and weird weekend for me. This storm is not a nor'easter, but it will still likely be a significant event, not because it will be especially heavy all the time...but it could be snowing moderately for 60 hours in a row! Some models indicate light/moderate snow from noon on Sunday to 6 AM on Tuesday morning. This would accumulate as the temps are going to be miles below freezing, and thus it is going to be several inches with early indications that some areas may gradually receive up to over 6 inches. This, of course, is very early and subject to change, especially with such an odd system (which is basically a stalled frontal boundary that sits over our area for a really long time). The odds now do favor a significant snow event Sunday-Tuesday, but stay tuned!
Today in weather history- February 26, 1910- Laconia, Washington recieves 129" of snow in the biggest snowstorm on record to hit that state.
Today's storm stayed out to sea as predicted, but frigid temperatures are the tradeoff we get for it! The arctic high pressure system that deflected the storm is firmly in place and that's why we deal with temps that will leave you shivering the next few days- bundle up! Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday is when things get interesting, if not complex. I can already tell this is going to be an odd, bizzare, strange, and weird weekend for me. This storm is not a nor'easter, but it will still likely be a significant event, not because it will be especially heavy all the time...but it could be snowing moderately for 60 hours in a row! Some models indicate light/moderate snow from noon on Sunday to 6 AM on Tuesday morning. This would accumulate as the temps are going to be miles below freezing, and thus it is going to be several inches with early indications that some areas may gradually receive up to over 6 inches. This, of course, is very early and subject to change, especially with such an odd system (which is basically a stalled frontal boundary that sits over our area for a really long time). The odds now do favor a significant snow event Sunday-Tuesday, but stay tuned!
Today in weather history- February 26, 1910- Laconia, Washington recieves 129" of snow in the biggest snowstorm on record to hit that state.
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