Sunday, December 31, 2017

12/31- With Horrifying Hurricanes, Brutal Blizzards, and Record Temperatures, 2017 Was One for the Ages

Good Sunday all-

Happy new year! We will be welcoming 2018 with a very close run on the models. We are right on the fringe right now of a snowstorm for this upcoming Thursday. In fact...the difference of about 100 miles will determine if we get nothing...a glancing blow...or a blizzard that only happens in our area about once every century or so. Right now, I favor choice 'B'- which would still be a major snowstorm for our area on the order of 8-16" (so imagine what choice 'C' is- trust me, you don't want to know). Regardless, the cold remains firmly in place and if you intend to visit Times Square tonight, BUNDLE UP- this will likely be the second coldest ball drop...ever recorded with temperatures in the high single digits. Youch! Stay warm!!! Now for a look back on the incredible, record breaking year that 2017 was for us in Connecticut and across the entire western Atlantic.


January was a month that featured well above average temperatures, and was surprisingly snow free, with the exception of Winter Storm Breanna, which dropped a general 5-8" of snow on the state on the 8th. This continued the recent trend of dry and relatively snow free January's, the third year in a row that one or fewer named storms occurred during the month. Little did we know the winter had just begun.

February was the tale of two months, with two significant snowstorms, but also 70 degree temperatures at the end of the month. For most, the most significant snowstorm of the winter was Blizzard Chris on the 9th, which was followed by Winter Storm Diana just three days later on the 12th. After that though, the temperatures swung in the extreme, with several days in the last two weeks of the month well into the 60s and even reaching the 70s on several occasions, leaving many to believe that winter was over, which proved to be extremely premature.

March was an exceptionally cold month, with temperatures nearly 6 degrees below average! To add insult to injury, March also featured well above average snowfall, with Blizzard Eugene on March 14 delivering 1-2ft of snow to the entire region. There was no true warmup at any time in the month, and at times it made you wonder if spring really was around the corner. In fact, for just the 4th time on record, March was actually colder than February!

April was decent, but not all that unusual. The most notable thing about the month is that the year and a half long drought finally came to an end with substantial rains falling through the month on several different occasions. Temperatures were roughly seasonable in a relatively unremarkable month

May certainly had its' ups (high temperatures in the 90s several times mid-month) and downs (several days with rain falling heavily all day). In the end, however, the most notable weather event of the month was the severe weather outbreak on the 31st, which featured large hail, picturesque shelf clouds, and a tornado warning for Fairfield/Litchfield County. Although no tornado was recorded, it still was quite the evening!

June was a tale of two extremes. The first two weeks were exceptionally cool, including one of the coldest June days on record with highs in the low 50s and lows generally in the low 40s with a few places even in the upper 30s(!) in places on the 6th. The second part, however, featured far more typical weather, with several days of thunderstorms and summery heat and humidity. The precipitation wound up very close to the average.

July was a pretty typical July here in Connecticut, with temperatures primarily fluctuating between 75 and 95, with very few days outside of those parameters. Two heat waves occurred during the month, which is not at all unusual. Severe weather was rather uncommon, though the microburst in Derby on July 13 did cause a fair amount of damage in southwestern New Haven county.

August was not overly noteworthy in Connecticut, with temperatures only slightly below average. The most notable fact regarding the month is that somehow there were only two 90 degree days in Hartford, which is exceptionally difficult to do in August. Precipitation was well below average for the month, coming up at a total of 2.66". Of course, August will be remembered most by the weather world for the disaster that Hurricane Harvey and its' subsequent extreme rains caused in Texas, leading to a long-thought unbreakable record falling, establishing itself as the costliest natural disaster in US history.

September belonged to the hurricanes, although we managed to dodge a few bullets locally. Two category 5 hurricanes formed in the month, marking the first time since 2007 a season has had multiple storms reach the highest intensity. To make matters worse, both of these storms (Irma and Maria) made landfalls at category 4 intensity, clobbering Florida and Puerto Rico. Both of these storms will be remembered for a very long time indeed, and surely will join Harvey on the retired name list. The other notable hurricane, Jose, made a very serious run at our area, even prompting Tropical Storm watches for a brief period before ultimately passing safely to the southeast of Cape Cod. Temperatures locally were far above normal, with an average of 78.4 degrees. The dryness also continued, with a rainfall deficit of over an inch, briefly returning parts of the state to drought conditions. This would be wiped clear, however, in that wild last week of October.

October was an extremely warm month, and it seemed like it would be mainly dry until the two major storms clobbered the region on the 24th and 29th, both dumping upwards of 5" of rain on our area and completely wiping out the drought, and causing an October rainfall total nearly double the average. The warmest October on record for many locations, including both Hartford and Bridgeport, ended with a bang to be sure! Most notably, however, the October 29th curse struck again, with a massive coastal storm with influence from the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe clobbering the region with winds gusting upwards of hurricane force across the state, doing a great deal of damage and causing nearly 200,000 power outages across the state, in some cases lasting for several days. Definitely one to remember!

November was dryer than normal for sure, but also much, much colder than normal. Overall, BDL finished the month with an average temperature of 42 degrees, which is two degrees below normal. There was 1.04" of precipitation, which is about 2" below normal as well for the month. The most notable part of the time period was the aforementioned cold, especially in the final two weeks of the month, which saw temperatures plunge into the teens at times. Most also experienced their first snow of the 2017-18 winter, although it was by no means substantial, with only a trace falling in Hartford. That would change in a big way for December, however.

Finally, December was the first truly wintry December in quite some time, and boy was it ever. Temperatures were far below average (exactly how far remains to be seen- I'll have final numbers tomorrow), and was extremely snowy as well. At my house in Naugatuck, we recieved 16" of snow for the month, which is only slightly less than half of the average annual snowfall. With more snow possible on Thursday (the current Euro proposes one to one and a half feet), this will only increase, and the pattern for January looks pretty good for snow, with the exception of the week from after Thursday until the following weekend or so (and even then, some snow certainly could fall). To put this in perspective, should 16" fall in the four months where it is realistic (Dec-Mar), we would get 64" of snow on the year, which is about 15" above the average annual snowfall for the region...and is close to an all time top 10 year. In general though, remember that our snowiest month of the year is actually February.






Wishing you a very, very happy 2018! May it bring peace, joy, and wonderful new memories to all the world.



Wednesday, December 27, 2017

12/27- One of the Coldest Runs in Recorded History on the Way

Good Wednesday all-

I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and was able to enjoy the time spent with friends and family.

Among the many stories of the next week or so, one that will take the most time to talk about is the cold weather. In fact, the potential exists for this to be the coldest ten day stretch ever recorded at BDL, as we may not see temperatures hit 20 degrees not just today...but until well into 2018. Yak! Well, what can you do except shake your head and keep the heat on and stay warm. For what it's worth, the overnight lows look to feature many nights with temperatures close to or even below zero degrees. Yeah, so not good. Bundle up this week and next! Another storm threat appears to lie around Friday 1/5. Which, go figure, I have a flight on that day to Austin, TX to attend the meteorology conference there from the 8th to the 11th...so that's a high-risk forecast for me personally too!

There also remains a snow threat for the morning of New Year's Eve. Of our two major models, one has consistently suggested a major snowstorm for New England (the Euro) while another (the GFS) has no storm anywhere within 1000 miles. The Canadian model is closer to the Euro, forecasting a general 4 to 8" of snow lasting from about 9 PM on Saturday to 3 PM on NYE. Lovely. That's extremely unhelpful to say the least, so we have to watch this very closely over the next few days as we begin to get a better picture.


Monday, December 25, 2017

12/25- Gee, thanks Computer

Greetings-

I'm baack- sorry it took so long, but this time it wasn't nmy fault- my computer underwent a fatal hard drive error about two weeks ago and thus I have been unable to update.

That said, I'm back! And I'm glad to be- I just got a new, fancy laptop for Christmas and I'm loving it!

Now, the weather is very festive, with a moderate amount of snow having fallen across most of Connecticut this morning. In Naugatuck, it seems I have picked up roughly 3", which brings my annual snowfall up to 15"- about one third of the average annual snowfall in the last two weeks, beginning with Winter Storm Ali dropping 7" on me on December 10. Since then, a series of 2 or 3" snowfalls has improved my totals up dramatically.

Now, onto the more important part of the weather- a frigid (and I mean frigid) week ahead, featuring temperatures of 15 or so for highs and near to possibly sub-zero lows by the middle of the week. The next chance for snow is next weekend, and the threat appears to be pretty substantial, so we certainly have to keep a close eye on it as we approach new year's eve. For what it's worth, January looks to feature below average temperatures with at least average amounts of snowfall.

I wish everyone the very merriest of Christmases and hope you enjoy the last week of 2017!

Thursday, November 30, 2017

11.30- Goodbye Hurricane Season, Hello Winter!

Good Thursday all-

Sorry for not updating lately, but there was nothing to talk about. Homework and school have been really tough this semester and I apologize for not having updated nearly as much as I have in the past. For far more regular updates, I highly recommend that you follow me on twitter- @stevectweather.

No storms are on the immediate horizon at this time, but certainly the odds look to increase by next weekend. Obviously that's still way, way out there and things will change, but the pattern looks to be locked and loaded for about a month and a half once we get through a week or so.

Thus, I'll do this for my winter snowfall predictions as we head into meteorological winter

BDL: 78.5"- this total would be 33" above average and the 7th snowiest winter on record

BDR: 56.5"

I'm going with these bullish forecasts because of the pattern setup. The winters that compare most to the current pattern are 2005-2006, which featured 69.9"...and 2010-11 which had 86.4" (and is the second snowiest on record). Thus, I'll go with a blend of the two results and obtain this value. Even if the 05-06 result verifies, we'd be knocking at the door of a top 10 year, so the outlook is promising for snow lovers.

Today...November 30, 2017...marks the end of what has been a downright historic and devastating hurricane season that will be remembered forever alongside the other great hurricane seasons of 1995, 2004, and 2005. The final totals for this hyperactive year were (barring some December weirdness) 17 named storms...10 hurricanes...6  major hurricanes...and 2 category 5's (this is just the 6th year ever recorded that this has happened). Also, Jose was literally 1mph shy of cat 5 intensity as well, so we were extremely close to having this become just the second year ever to have three category 5 storms.

Needless to say, the most memorable storms this year were Harvey, Irma, and Maria. All three of these names will undoubtedly be retired and replaced by the time this list is reused six years from now in the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Here in CT, we were impacted indirectly by Tropical Storm Philippe, which ended up producing a powerful hurricane-type storm over CT and did a massive amount of damage on October 29.

Many records were set this season including: Most damaging season on record by USD ($369 billion), 2nd longest time consecutively spent as a category 5 hurricane (Irma, 3 days), strongest hurricane over the open Atlantic (Irma, 914mb), strongest April tropical cyclone (Arlene, 990mb), 2nd highest windspeed in the Atlantic basin in a hurricane (Irma, 185mph), fastest time from a tropical depression to a category 5 hurricane (Maria, 30 hours), tied for the 9th most active season on record by named storms (17), longest time a hurricane has had sustained winds greater than or equal to 185 mph (Irma, 37 hours), and the big one that many (myself included) thought would never fall- costliest tropical cyclone on record: Harvey ($198 billion), passing Katrina by a wide margin.

What a year. Let's hope 2018 is significantly less active. As for my preseason prediction review, I went 15-7-4...that actually was pretty close! I'll take it!

Today we say goodbye to meteorological fall and hello to winter. Have fun with the snow. I'll update here when a significant storm is on the horizon. Until then!

Image result for goodbye autumn




Saturday, November 4, 2017

11/4- Update, Cold Weather Incoming

Good Saturday everyone-

The weather is taking a turn for the chillier this week, as we will actually be below average by a fairly significant margin for most of the next 7 days. Highs likely will be primarily in the 50s, but next weekend looks like it could feature highs as low as the upper 30s! Snow is possible as well around that timeframe, but it would be a few "mood flakes" in all likelihood and nothing accumulating. There is a small chance of something more significant, but the odds of 2"+ of snow are something like 5% at the current time, which is extremely low. It's just tough to do that in early November, but it's a sign of the times for sure.

Remember to set your clocks back tonight!

Thursday, October 26, 2017

10/26- The Curse of October 29th Strikes Again- MAJOR Storm Likely

Good evening everyone-

I'm here with an update on what is going to be a massive and potentially damaging storm to Connecticut on Sunday evening.

This has come up very quickly on models- as recently as 36 hours ago, there was no indication of this, but now the system is seemingly getting more significant with each passing run.

Right now, we have two distinct model camps- the GFS/Canadian model and the European/UK model. Based on the fact that this is a very similar setup to what delivered Hurricane Sandy to New Jersey...and the success of the European model in the past...I'm more inclined to believe the more western camp of models. Should the eastern models varify (and most meteorologists, including myself, believe this to be rather unlikely)--you can cut all the wind values I am about to post roughly in half. I am fairly comfortable with my forecast though- the GFS was in the western camp earlier today, and the 18z run is notorious for producing garbage solutions, so here we go.

Timing: Rain should arrive sometime early Sunday afternoon and last for roughly a full day, ending early to mid-afternoon on Monday.

MAJOR THREATS

1. Heavy Rain- This is going to happen even if the eastern outliers are correct. Extremely intense rainfall is going to happen Sunday night, with 3-6" of rain widespread...with locally higher amounts possible. The ground is already saturated thanks to the biggest rainstorm CT has seen in six years Tuesday...but this may surpass it too!

2. Strong to Damaging Wind- This is highly, highly dependent on track. If it goes east, as I was saying, you can cut these numbers by one third to one half. For now, I think most areas on the shoreline will experience near or above Tropical Storm conditions, or a sustained wind of 40mph, for at least a few hours. Inland, it's likely to be more in the 25-35mph range as a general rule. The real fun, however, is in the gusts. Computer models have been massively aggressive on these, especially the European run this afternoon (which puts the storm over NYC). Using a general compromise of the data I've been looking at, I would expect peak gusts to be between 45 and 65mph. It wouldn't shock me if a shoreline town hit 70mph. The Euro is significantly more agressive than this, showing hurricane force gusts for more than half of the entire state, which...yeah that would be pretty darn bad. For reference, the peak wind gust in CT during Hurricane Irene was 65mph, and the peak wind gust during Sandy in our state was 85mph. Thus...something between the two seems most likely at the moment.

3. Storm Surge- Again, this is highly dependent on the exact track our system takes, but if it passes to our west ala the Euro, water would be given the chance to pile into LIS from east to west, ultimately causing a fairly significant amount of coastal flooding and damage. Fortunately, the difference is that this storm is NOT coming at an astronomical high tide by any stretch. Regardless of track though, thanks to the weaker system and smaller size, this will NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN SANDY/IRENE UNLESS SOMETHING MAJOR CHANGES.

In summary, what do I think the actual impact will be perceived as? Ultimately, a Euro-type storm would produce Sandy/Irene type impacts with massive power outages, trees down, and coastal flooding and erosion- Cosey Beach are you listening? One very trustworthy local meteorologist put it best this afternoon. He was asked on twitter "Will this be as bad as Sandy?". His response was, essentially, as a whole, not even close. In individual local areas though...yes, it could be. I couldn't agree more. This storm will not have the 1000 mile windfield or the devastating storm surge we saw five years ago on the Jersey/NYC/CT shoreline. That said, we look to be perfectly in the windfield, set up for some coastal flooding, and get another half foot of rain into an already saturated ground. The damage could be significant. My advice...prepare for this system as you would prepare for a hurricane. There is a scenario in which you could be out of power for several days...and you'd always rather be safe than sorry.

I'll have a full update tomorrow morning with the latest on this major, major storm.
^^^The 12z Euro putting a storm with the minimum pressure equivalent of a category 1 hurricane directly into Manhattan. This is the worst possible outcome for tropical systems in CT, and would result in a historic event, with extreme power outages and significant damage.


^^^18z GFS, much farther east than the Euro, however the run before this showed...

^^^12z GFS, showing nearly the exact same thing as the Euro.

Which one is right? Take your pick. The worst of the three would be the Euro- the 12z GFS is actually "too direct" of a hit for extreme wind in CT, as the strongest wind would be over Cape Cod and eastern MA if it verified.




















Friday, October 20, 2017

10/20- Major Rainstorm for Tuesday

Happy Friday everyone-

There is no change to the forecast I gave earlier this week for the next three days. However, there is one issue in the forecast now- and that is Tuesday. It truly looks like a total washout starting mid afternoon, with heavy rain pretty much all day thanks to a low that will develop along a cold front and ride the coastline all the way up into southern New England. As a general rule, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain can be expected, with highs then proceeding to go from the mid 70s to the low 60s- quite a significant dropoff and near the average temperature for this time of year.


^^A very wet Tuesday afternoon and evening

If the World Series is played at Yankee Stadium next weekend, the weather looks dry with average temperatures- generally the mid to upper 50s around gametime. A early look at Halloween suggests fiendishly below average temperatures with highs in the upper 40s or low 50s with dry conditions.