Good FRIDAY everyone!
What a miserable day we have in store for Sunday. The entire state is under a WINTER STORM WATCH, which will be upgraded to a warning later today for the 2nd major winter storm of the 18-19 winter.
This is a very complicated forecast, I'm not going to lie to you. The difference of about 50-75 miles is going to be the difference between picking up 10-20" of snow or 0.4-1" of ice accretion. We all are hoping for the former, obviously, because that amount of ice would be absolutely ridiculous and cause numerous power outage issues and significant tree damage. Models do not agree on which is correct at the moment, so I'm going to play it safe and go with something in the middle of the road here, which most of our local TV stations seem to be doing as well. Therefore, my first call for central Connecticut is: 6-12" of snow, followed by 0.3-0.6" of ice accretion. The amount of either of these is highly variable, and should be monitored carefully over the next 24 hours to see if we trend in either direction. Monday is already a day off for the vast majority of school districts, but if you have school, you probably won't: I expect all districts that do have school in session to be closed completely on Monday to allow time to shovel and move the snow!
I'll update again after the mid-day model runs today. Let's see what happens!
Friday, January 18, 2019
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
1/16- Tracking the Weekend
Good Wednesday all-
A couple of interesting weather events are on the way here in Connecticut, with two winter events of note taking place in the next five days.
The first is Friday, as a quick moving coastal low brushes by our area and drops a light accumulating snow during the early morning hours. At the moment, inland areas can expect a general storm total of 2-4" inland, and 1-3" on the shoreline. Someone in the northwest hills has an outside chance of getting 6", but that total is unlikely for most of the state as it should change over to rain during the early morning hours (Around 8 AM). That said, considering the timing, many schools will be forced to delay away from the immediate shoreline. Some more cautious districts...or those in the hills, may even close completely if enough snow falls during that time.
The second, Saturday night into Sunday, has the *potential* to be much, much more significant as a MASSIVE storm is set to develop over our region. The track here means everything, and all events from mostly rain to two feet of snow remains in play. Right now, it looks like something in between- say 8-12" of snow followed by half an inch of ice followed by another 1-3" of snow...ouch. Any further south with the path would yield a snowstorm with multiple feet, and any further west/north would yield more ice and less snow. Let's just wait and see- I'll keep you posted as we approach the event that could well be Winter Storm Yoshi.
A couple of interesting weather events are on the way here in Connecticut, with two winter events of note taking place in the next five days.
The first is Friday, as a quick moving coastal low brushes by our area and drops a light accumulating snow during the early morning hours. At the moment, inland areas can expect a general storm total of 2-4" inland, and 1-3" on the shoreline. Someone in the northwest hills has an outside chance of getting 6", but that total is unlikely for most of the state as it should change over to rain during the early morning hours (Around 8 AM). That said, considering the timing, many schools will be forced to delay away from the immediate shoreline. Some more cautious districts...or those in the hills, may even close completely if enough snow falls during that time.
The second, Saturday night into Sunday, has the *potential* to be much, much more significant as a MASSIVE storm is set to develop over our region. The track here means everything, and all events from mostly rain to two feet of snow remains in play. Right now, it looks like something in between- say 8-12" of snow followed by half an inch of ice followed by another 1-3" of snow...ouch. Any further south with the path would yield a snowstorm with multiple feet, and any further west/north would yield more ice and less snow. Let's just wait and see- I'll keep you posted as we approach the event that could well be Winter Storm Yoshi.
Monday, January 7, 2019
1/6- Slippery Commute Likely
Good evening everyone-
*A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* is up for Litchfield and interior Fairfield Counties*
Having said that, the conditions those two areas experience tonight will really be felt statewide as a minor area of low pressure passes through SNE from west to east. While no true accumulation is expected (someone that gets very unlucky in the hills could get 1"). That said, the timing of this, as well as an eventual changeover, is what makes this tricky- we should see the snow begin to mix and change to rain around 6 AM across the shoreline and a bit later inland. Thus, it is entirely possible that some schools end up delaying tomorrow, especially since very few have actually had any weather related problems so far in what has been a rather quiet winter.
There's not really a point in making an accumulation map, and as long as you take a bit of extra time on your morning ride tomorrow you'll have no problem.
Sunday has the potential to be a more significant issue, but that's a story for another time, as details as one would expect are iffy considering we are 6 days out still.
So ends the first week of 2019. That flew- the year is now 1/52nd over :P
*A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* is up for Litchfield and interior Fairfield Counties*
Having said that, the conditions those two areas experience tonight will really be felt statewide as a minor area of low pressure passes through SNE from west to east. While no true accumulation is expected (someone that gets very unlucky in the hills could get 1"). That said, the timing of this, as well as an eventual changeover, is what makes this tricky- we should see the snow begin to mix and change to rain around 6 AM across the shoreline and a bit later inland. Thus, it is entirely possible that some schools end up delaying tomorrow, especially since very few have actually had any weather related problems so far in what has been a rather quiet winter.
There's not really a point in making an accumulation map, and as long as you take a bit of extra time on your morning ride tomorrow you'll have no problem.
Sunday has the potential to be a more significant issue, but that's a story for another time, as details as one would expect are iffy considering we are 6 days out still.
So ends the first week of 2019. That flew- the year is now 1/52nd over :P
Saturday, January 5, 2019
1/5/19- It's Been Forever
Greetings to everyone-
First off, there are no words that I can use to explain my absence for ten months- frankly, it's been one thing after another after another, and many of them have been good- but the bottom line is that I should never have been gone for that long. It will not happen again, and I have no way to say sorry other than to give my word that I will continue to blog for the future. Perhaps not every day like it once was, but at minimum several times a week- especially if a major storm is on the horizon.
In any case, over the last year, a tornado hit my house and did serious damage on May 15, we experienced the 5th wettest year on record, and watched as Hurricanes Florence and Michael devastated areas south of us. After an early snowstorm on November 15th (the 3rd earliest 6" snowfall on record), we've largely had a quiet winter, and with the pattern we have at this moment, it looks like that should mostly continue for another week or so. Some icing is certainly possible Monday night into Tuesday, which could snarl up some commutes Tuesday morning for sure. Today, you can expect it to rain on and off all day! Ugh. Generally 0.5" of rain is expected, and although not nearly as bad as it looked like it would be a few days ago, a 37 degree rain is downright nasty for sure! Tomorrow we're looking at temperatures in the mid-40s, then a generally cool and seasonable week should follow with any issues being confined to the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.
For more information, feel free to follow me on twitter at @stevectweather!
Again, my deepest apologies for not updating for so, so long. Hope you all had a great holiday season!
Happy 2019- see you real soon!
First off, there are no words that I can use to explain my absence for ten months- frankly, it's been one thing after another after another, and many of them have been good- but the bottom line is that I should never have been gone for that long. It will not happen again, and I have no way to say sorry other than to give my word that I will continue to blog for the future. Perhaps not every day like it once was, but at minimum several times a week- especially if a major storm is on the horizon.
In any case, over the last year, a tornado hit my house and did serious damage on May 15, we experienced the 5th wettest year on record, and watched as Hurricanes Florence and Michael devastated areas south of us. After an early snowstorm on November 15th (the 3rd earliest 6" snowfall on record), we've largely had a quiet winter, and with the pattern we have at this moment, it looks like that should mostly continue for another week or so. Some icing is certainly possible Monday night into Tuesday, which could snarl up some commutes Tuesday morning for sure. Today, you can expect it to rain on and off all day! Ugh. Generally 0.5" of rain is expected, and although not nearly as bad as it looked like it would be a few days ago, a 37 degree rain is downright nasty for sure! Tomorrow we're looking at temperatures in the mid-40s, then a generally cool and seasonable week should follow with any issues being confined to the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.
For more information, feel free to follow me on twitter at @stevectweather!
Again, my deepest apologies for not updating for so, so long. Hope you all had a great holiday season!
Happy 2019- see you real soon!
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