Good Thursday all-
One yes one, week to Thanksgiving and this is not the time for the weather to become active but, lo and behold, that's exactly what's going to happen and we are about to be in for a major cold spell that will likely produce some snow. I am closely watching two systems- one for Sunday and another for Thanksgiving Day (ouchy!). The next few days are going to be absolutely incredible though so take time to enjoy them--seriously! Highs will be near or even slightly above 60 degrees with bright sunshine! Sunday's system, however, is going to be a very strong cold front that will do a couple of things. First, it will send temps from the 60s to the 30s, and feature rain eventually mixing with and changing to snow. Flurries will be around Monday, but Tuesday looks good. Clouds increase on Wednesday until...well...
Thursday has the *potential* to feature a major snowstorm from NYC to Maine if everything comes together. I think that the places most likely to get a significant snowstorm are off to our north in the White and Green Mountains, and pretty much all of Maine, but I cannot rule out a significant impact here in Connecticut. As we are a week out, things can and will change, but obviously that's a hugely important forecast and I will keep you informed as the time gets closer.
The tropics remain as they were on Tuesday.
Today in weather history- November 17, 1927- A strong long-track tornado hits Washington, DC, injuring 31 people and striking the Naval Air Station, which recorded a gust to 93mph
Thursday, November 17, 2016
Tuesday, November 15, 2016
11/15- A Full Day of Rain...Finally
Good Tuesday all-
What a miserable day this is going to be...well unless you like rain, but most of us should appreciate it! With our rainfall deficit as high as it is, this is extremely helpful, though 1-2" of rain that we expect today won't completely erase it...it will significantly help. Additionally, the pattern appears to be becoming very active for the next several weeks, so we may get a bit more help...but some of that may be in the form of snow. After today, the rest of the week looks dry, with the next chance of precipitation coming on Sunday, and that one could end as some snow, depending on exactly where the precipitation winds up. The first part of Thanksgiving week looks decent, but some models are suggesting the potential for a major snowstorm either on Thanksgiving Day or the days in the immediate vicinity...let's try to avoid that as it would be a travel nightmare!
^^^0z GFS indicating six to twelve inches of snow on Thanksgiving Day. Ouch. Additionally, it is still snowing at the time above, so you can raise the totals another inch or two on this model run.
The Caribbean system discussed yesterday now has a 70% chance of development over the next several days, and the islands near and including Hispanola will be paying very close attention to this one.
Today in weather history- November 15, 1900- The lake effect machine was out in full force for Watertown, NY, which picked up 45" of snow in this single 24 hour period, and a storm total of 49". By comparison, that's nearly ten inches more than the 91 corridor got during Blizzard Charlotte/Nemo in 2013!
What a miserable day this is going to be...well unless you like rain, but most of us should appreciate it! With our rainfall deficit as high as it is, this is extremely helpful, though 1-2" of rain that we expect today won't completely erase it...it will significantly help. Additionally, the pattern appears to be becoming very active for the next several weeks, so we may get a bit more help...but some of that may be in the form of snow. After today, the rest of the week looks dry, with the next chance of precipitation coming on Sunday, and that one could end as some snow, depending on exactly where the precipitation winds up. The first part of Thanksgiving week looks decent, but some models are suggesting the potential for a major snowstorm either on Thanksgiving Day or the days in the immediate vicinity...let's try to avoid that as it would be a travel nightmare!
^^^0z GFS indicating six to twelve inches of snow on Thanksgiving Day. Ouch. Additionally, it is still snowing at the time above, so you can raise the totals another inch or two on this model run.
The Caribbean system discussed yesterday now has a 70% chance of development over the next several days, and the islands near and including Hispanola will be paying very close attention to this one.
Today in weather history- November 15, 1900- The lake effect machine was out in full force for Watertown, NY, which picked up 45" of snow in this single 24 hour period, and a storm total of 49". By comparison, that's nearly ten inches more than the 91 corridor got during Blizzard Charlotte/Nemo in 2013!
Monday, November 14, 2016
11/14- A Heavy Rainstorm Tomorrow, Watching the Weekend
Good Monday all-
Today is going to be absolutely beautiful, with highs in the high 50s/low 60s with bright sunshine...which is beautiful for this time of the year! Tomorrow, however, appears to be a total washout- thank goodness! We really need the rain, and this will help with 1-2" of rain likely during the day tomorrow as a coastal low passes directly over our head during your Tuesday. The rest of the week looks very good- in fact, exceedingly similar to today, and maybe even a bit warmer for the last part of the week.
I am, however, watching either Sunday or next Monday for the potential of at least some snow falling in Connecticut. This will occur from a very highly complex and bizarre setup...and although I could type several paragraphs on what could happen...it will only confuse you. So just keep in the back of your mind that there is about a 20% chance of a light but noticeable accumulating snow around a week from now.
^^ This is a strange way to get snow, but it would work and needs to be watched
Tropical Storm Tina unexpectedly formed in the Pacific this weekend, but it is already on its' weakening phase. The bigger concern lies in the Atlantic, where Tropical Storm Otto appears to be forming in the central Caribbean and is generally heading for Hispanola. That's the last thing they need as they continue to recover from Hurricane Matthew's devastating strike a bit over a month ago.
Today in weather history- November 14, 1987- A really amazing pattern shift, although not unheard of at all at this highly variable time of year, sends DC from digging out from over a foot of snow three days prior to highs near 70 degrees on this date. That's a snow eating temperature if I ever saw one!
Today is going to be absolutely beautiful, with highs in the high 50s/low 60s with bright sunshine...which is beautiful for this time of the year! Tomorrow, however, appears to be a total washout- thank goodness! We really need the rain, and this will help with 1-2" of rain likely during the day tomorrow as a coastal low passes directly over our head during your Tuesday. The rest of the week looks very good- in fact, exceedingly similar to today, and maybe even a bit warmer for the last part of the week.
I am, however, watching either Sunday or next Monday for the potential of at least some snow falling in Connecticut. This will occur from a very highly complex and bizarre setup...and although I could type several paragraphs on what could happen...it will only confuse you. So just keep in the back of your mind that there is about a 20% chance of a light but noticeable accumulating snow around a week from now.
^^ This is a strange way to get snow, but it would work and needs to be watched
Tropical Storm Tina unexpectedly formed in the Pacific this weekend, but it is already on its' weakening phase. The bigger concern lies in the Atlantic, where Tropical Storm Otto appears to be forming in the central Caribbean and is generally heading for Hispanola. That's the last thing they need as they continue to recover from Hurricane Matthew's devastating strike a bit over a month ago.
Today in weather history- November 14, 1987- A really amazing pattern shift, although not unheard of at all at this highly variable time of year, sends DC from digging out from over a foot of snow three days prior to highs near 70 degrees on this date. That's a snow eating temperature if I ever saw one!
Thursday, November 10, 2016
11/10- Sunny for Ages
Good Thursday all-
Now that we got through the rain from yesterday, today is going to be a beautiful day with highs in the mid to upper 50s and bright sunshine and, frankly, I think we will be having that for five of the next seven days. The bumps in the road look to be Saturday- highs in the mid 40s with wind out of the north with a flurry or two possible in northwest Connecticut- and next Wednesday- when a massive nor'easter threatens to drench New England with several inches of rain. That, of course, is way out there and I will continue to watch that closely for you!
Both the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet for now, but a Pacific basin low does have some chance of development as it moves to the north and in the general direction of the Baja Peninsula.
Today in weather history- November 10, 2002- A massive tornado outbreak- exceedingly unusual for this late in the season- kills 36 people. Of the 75 tornadoes, the most noteworthy was one a mile wide that struck Mossy Grove, TN, which killed 12 of the 36 total people killed on this day.
Now that we got through the rain from yesterday, today is going to be a beautiful day with highs in the mid to upper 50s and bright sunshine and, frankly, I think we will be having that for five of the next seven days. The bumps in the road look to be Saturday- highs in the mid 40s with wind out of the north with a flurry or two possible in northwest Connecticut- and next Wednesday- when a massive nor'easter threatens to drench New England with several inches of rain. That, of course, is way out there and I will continue to watch that closely for you!
Both the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet for now, but a Pacific basin low does have some chance of development as it moves to the north and in the general direction of the Baja Peninsula.
Today in weather history- November 10, 2002- A massive tornado outbreak- exceedingly unusual for this late in the season- kills 36 people. Of the 75 tornadoes, the most noteworthy was one a mile wide that struck Mossy Grove, TN, which killed 12 of the 36 total people killed on this day.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
11/9- The Donald is President, but How is the Weather?
Good Wednesday all-
And boy, just how tired are we after last night's adventure that, after a stunning turn of events, has allowed Donald Trump to become the 45th president. Wow.
^^^ Who would have thought this would happen after trailing in the polls for so long
Well, in any event, mother nature will be dropping tears (I will let you decide if they are of joy or sadness) today in the form of some showers over our area this afternoon as a weak cold front moves in. This will not do much to our temperatures- in fact, I think we're in the mid 50s from now until Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies after today. The real chill comes on Saturday when we end up with highs in the mid 40s with a gusty north wind which will make it feel like highs are in the 20s...yikes. Lastly, to add insult to injury, snow flurries are possible as well, but any precip will be light and no accumulation will occur. Thankfully, we do moderate things quite a bit after that, and will be three to five degrees above average for the early part of next week.
No development is expected in the Atlantic or Pacific anytime soon.
Instead of weather history, today is about American History, so I leave this last thought- it's true that this has been the most divisive campaign in history with seemingly two polar opposite ideologies going head to head. The bottom line is this, though- we are ALL Americans and must try to find a common ground as we go into the future. I wish President-Elect Trump the best of luck in his journey and hope that we can truly have a new era to look forward to in the coming years as he has constantly been discussing.
And boy, just how tired are we after last night's adventure that, after a stunning turn of events, has allowed Donald Trump to become the 45th president. Wow.
^^^ Who would have thought this would happen after trailing in the polls for so long
Well, in any event, mother nature will be dropping tears (I will let you decide if they are of joy or sadness) today in the form of some showers over our area this afternoon as a weak cold front moves in. This will not do much to our temperatures- in fact, I think we're in the mid 50s from now until Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies after today. The real chill comes on Saturday when we end up with highs in the mid 40s with a gusty north wind which will make it feel like highs are in the 20s...yikes. Lastly, to add insult to injury, snow flurries are possible as well, but any precip will be light and no accumulation will occur. Thankfully, we do moderate things quite a bit after that, and will be three to five degrees above average for the early part of next week.
No development is expected in the Atlantic or Pacific anytime soon.
Instead of weather history, today is about American History, so I leave this last thought- it's true that this has been the most divisive campaign in history with seemingly two polar opposite ideologies going head to head. The bottom line is this, though- we are ALL Americans and must try to find a common ground as we go into the future. I wish President-Elect Trump the best of luck in his journey and hope that we can truly have a new era to look forward to in the coming years as he has constantly been discussing.
Monday, November 7, 2016
11/7- Standard Week Ahead for November
Good Monday all-
First off, I sincerely apologize and beg forgiveness for not updating last week. My life was a bit of a mess, but things have certainly resolved themselves and now I can go back to focusing on this :)
Today is going to be a pretty average day for early November, with highs in the low 50s and partly sunny skies...well, who am I kidding? It's going to be like this for most of the next week. The exceptions are tomorrow- which will be a rather warm 63- and Wednesday- which will feature rain in the afternoon. The other bump in the forecast comes on Saturday, which will feature highs struggling to reach 40 (This is nearly fifteen degrees below average) with snow flurries a distinct possibility statewide, but especially in areas along and north of I-84 as the lake effect machine kicks into gear for the first time this winter. As we head into next week, however, the weather looks to become rather active and we begin to really ramp up the rain and snow chances.
There is no development likely in either the Atlantic or Pacific basins- and there are just 24 days remaining in the hurricane season.
Today in weather history- November 7, 1940- The infamous 'Galloping Gertie' bridge in Tacoma, WA collapses in a strong windstorm just four months after opening. Miraculously, nobody is killed, but bridges were constructed with spans that differ in size (as the cause of the collapse was largely linked to the fact that the spans were the same)
No excuses to not vote tomorrow- and if you don't, then you are not allowed to complain about the results!
First off, I sincerely apologize and beg forgiveness for not updating last week. My life was a bit of a mess, but things have certainly resolved themselves and now I can go back to focusing on this :)
Today is going to be a pretty average day for early November, with highs in the low 50s and partly sunny skies...well, who am I kidding? It's going to be like this for most of the next week. The exceptions are tomorrow- which will be a rather warm 63- and Wednesday- which will feature rain in the afternoon. The other bump in the forecast comes on Saturday, which will feature highs struggling to reach 40 (This is nearly fifteen degrees below average) with snow flurries a distinct possibility statewide, but especially in areas along and north of I-84 as the lake effect machine kicks into gear for the first time this winter. As we head into next week, however, the weather looks to become rather active and we begin to really ramp up the rain and snow chances.
There is no development likely in either the Atlantic or Pacific basins- and there are just 24 days remaining in the hurricane season.
Today in weather history- November 7, 1940- The infamous 'Galloping Gertie' bridge in Tacoma, WA collapses in a strong windstorm just four months after opening. Miraculously, nobody is killed, but bridges were constructed with spans that differ in size (as the cause of the collapse was largely linked to the fact that the spans were the same)
No excuses to not vote tomorrow- and if you don't, then you are not allowed to complain about the results!
Tuesday, November 1, 2016
11/1- One week to Election Day...November starts Warm, Turns Chilly
Good Tuesday all-
Well, it's the new month! May November be all you want it to be and more- and remember that Thanksgiving is a paltry three weeks from Thursday! (Yes, 23 days from now...scary!)
The month begins with a very interesting array of temperatures. The next three days will be absolutely stunning, with temperatures going as high as ten to fifteen degrees above average- I think most towns get to 70 on Thursday, which is no small feat for early November. Skies will be partly cloudy throughout- and that is very welcome news as well. That said, our next system is an extremely strong cold front for Thursday afternoon, and we can expect some rain with it (though not too much) but it will send temperatures plummeting nearly thirty degrees. By the weekend, I think that most areas do not get out of the 40s, which is about ten degrees below average...so we're really on the coaster (though this in and of itself is not all that unusual for this time of year).
It is worth noting that there are strong signals of a cold and stormy pattern setting up about two weeks from now. As we are getting into the time of year when significant snow events are not unusual in Connecticut...we have to keep our eyes on this.
Both the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet as we begin the last month of the hurricane season.
Today in weather history- November 1- Not much has happened on this day worth noting, and not much is going to happen today so just enjoy your new month!
Well, it's the new month! May November be all you want it to be and more- and remember that Thanksgiving is a paltry three weeks from Thursday! (Yes, 23 days from now...scary!)
The month begins with a very interesting array of temperatures. The next three days will be absolutely stunning, with temperatures going as high as ten to fifteen degrees above average- I think most towns get to 70 on Thursday, which is no small feat for early November. Skies will be partly cloudy throughout- and that is very welcome news as well. That said, our next system is an extremely strong cold front for Thursday afternoon, and we can expect some rain with it (though not too much) but it will send temperatures plummeting nearly thirty degrees. By the weekend, I think that most areas do not get out of the 40s, which is about ten degrees below average...so we're really on the coaster (though this in and of itself is not all that unusual for this time of year).
It is worth noting that there are strong signals of a cold and stormy pattern setting up about two weeks from now. As we are getting into the time of year when significant snow events are not unusual in Connecticut...we have to keep our eyes on this.
Both the Atlantic and Pacific are quiet as we begin the last month of the hurricane season.
Today in weather history- November 1- Not much has happened on this day worth noting, and not much is going to happen today so just enjoy your new month!
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