Good Tuesday all-
Today is going to be a beautiful day, with temps in the mid-70s and bright sunshine! Scattered rain showers are still very likely tomorrow. The real trouble, however, lies at Saturday, and actually this merits its' own paragraph.
Alright, so remember Hurricane Ana from last week that threatened Hawaii? The remnants are going to hit the Pacific Northwest today, and then become a clipper system that will work its' way across the Great Lakes region on Friday. At the same time, a low pressure from the Gulf, which is totally separate from anything tropical, moves up the East coast...and you probably can guess what's going to happen. Eventually, these two features will combine and, well...IF everything comes together...we'd be looking at an Oct '11 redux. Heavy snow and strong wind would be possible, and power outages would be commonplace because all the leaves are still on the trees. An early guess at the worst possible accumulation this weekend would be something like 7-14", but I do not forecast that at this time, and probably has about a 33% chance of happening. In this scenario, winds would also gust up to 50-60mph, and would be a storm we talk about for years. This is, in fact, currently forecasted by the European model. The situation that everyone is talking about on the news (scattered snow showers) is unlikely- I do think everyone will see an accumulating snow down to the shoreline- but news channels have to be more careful than I do on this blog. Conservatively, I'll say an accumulating snow for Saturday, say the potential is there for a blockbuster, and leave it there.
The threat, though, is real enough for me to issue a STORM WATCH, and will update two times per day until the threat either goes away, or we are finished dealing with the big one. Regardless of whether we get a truly epic snowstorm, enjoy the season's first flakes.
In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Hanna shocked the meteorology world by suddenly forming yesterday basically right on the coast of the Honduras, and moved inland very quickly, dumping heavy rain on the area. It's already dead, and development is not expected anytime soon.
In the Pacific- See yesterday's post.
Today in weather history- October 28, 1846- A blizzard drops 5 feet of snow on what is now referred to as Donner pass, because this strands the Donner party in the mountains for the winter, and barely more than half survive the winter. The story has, over the years, acquired an almost mythical feel, and there certainly many, many articles out there about this if you are interested in more information.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Monday, October 27, 2014
10/27- Nice to frigid
Good Monday all- sorry!
Today is going to be a fine day with temps in the mid-60s pretty much everywhere and sunny skies, and tomorrow is actually going to be much the same, but with even warmer temps- I wouldn't be shocked if someone in my forecast area touched 70 tomorrow! The only chance for rain this week comes Tuesday night, which is followed by colder temps. Halloween, for the moment, looks absolutely frigid and way below average temperatures. At least it won't be ruined by a giant snowstorm or a freak hurricane. Beyond that, the first flakes will fly, and the weekend is positively frozen.
On Monday posts, I am now going to post a look at the upcoming week below
Today: Sunny and temps around 63-65
Tomorrow: Absolutely stunning for late October- bright sunshine and highs of 67-70
Wednesday: AM rain, cooler- highs between 64-67
Thursday- Pretty nice- partly cloudy with highs between 58-62
Halloween- Increasing clouds- highs between 53-58- trick or treaters should be dressed for the low 40s.
Saturday: AM light snow, no accumulation- then clearing but highs between 39-45.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, but highs between 38-44
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon
In the Pacific- A low in the middle of nowhere will probably become Tropical Storm Vance, and it is too early to fully be certain that it poses no land threats. Also, the remnants of Hurricane Ana will strike Washington and Alaska this week, and it could be a very powerful storm for them.
Today in weather history- October 27, 1998- Hurricane Mitch strikes the Honduras as a category 4 hurricane, but stalls just north of the area, causing absolutely incredible rain. In fact, many areas report 50-75" of rain, killing a whopping 18,974 people- the second deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic basin (the deadliest is the Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed about 23,000 people in the Antillies)
Today is going to be a fine day with temps in the mid-60s pretty much everywhere and sunny skies, and tomorrow is actually going to be much the same, but with even warmer temps- I wouldn't be shocked if someone in my forecast area touched 70 tomorrow! The only chance for rain this week comes Tuesday night, which is followed by colder temps. Halloween, for the moment, looks absolutely frigid and way below average temperatures. At least it won't be ruined by a giant snowstorm or a freak hurricane. Beyond that, the first flakes will fly, and the weekend is positively frozen.
On Monday posts, I am now going to post a look at the upcoming week below
Today: Sunny and temps around 63-65
Tomorrow: Absolutely stunning for late October- bright sunshine and highs of 67-70
Wednesday: AM rain, cooler- highs between 64-67
Thursday- Pretty nice- partly cloudy with highs between 58-62
Halloween- Increasing clouds- highs between 53-58- trick or treaters should be dressed for the low 40s.
Saturday: AM light snow, no accumulation- then clearing but highs between 39-45.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, but highs between 38-44
In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon
In the Pacific- A low in the middle of nowhere will probably become Tropical Storm Vance, and it is too early to fully be certain that it poses no land threats. Also, the remnants of Hurricane Ana will strike Washington and Alaska this week, and it could be a very powerful storm for them.
Today in weather history- October 27, 1998- Hurricane Mitch strikes the Honduras as a category 4 hurricane, but stalls just north of the area, causing absolutely incredible rain. In fact, many areas report 50-75" of rain, killing a whopping 18,974 people- the second deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic basin (the deadliest is the Great Hurricane of 1780, which killed about 23,000 people in the Antillies)
Friday, October 24, 2014
10/24- Finally some improvement
Happy FRIDAY everyone- we made it!
Today is going to be (finally) a bit better than the last few days. Granted, it won't be perfect, especially during the morning hours, but the rain should be highly scattered and light in nature, a nice change from what we have recently experienced. In fact, the sun could appear this afternoon at times, so it's fantastic that we may see it for the first time since Monday. Furthermore, it appears there is no threat of rain until next Wednesday, and even that is rather marginal. We are getting into a nice pattern...thank goodness- we deserve it!
Today is going to be (finally) a bit better than the last few days. Granted, it won't be perfect, especially during the morning hours, but the rain should be highly scattered and light in nature, a nice change from what we have recently experienced. In fact, the sun could appear this afternoon at times, so it's fantastic that we may see it for the first time since Monday. Furthermore, it appears there is no threat of rain until next Wednesday, and even that is rather marginal. We are getting into a nice pattern...thank goodness- we deserve it!
In the Atlantic- For all intents and purposes, no development anytime soon.
In the Pacific- See yesterday's post, but the odds of development have increased to 50/50
Today in weather history- October 24, 2002- For the first time in a century, a tornado hits Corpus Christi, Texas, damaging several homes and collapsing a wall at the Del Mar College.
Have a great weekend!
Thursday, October 23, 2014
10/23- What a night
Good Thursday all- just one day!
Today is going to be a bit better than last night, fortunately, but still rather nasty indeed with heavy rain and gusty wind. Thankfully, we made it through last night without too much trouble, but what a night indeed. 7,000 people, however, are waking up in the dark this morning, which is nothing to sneeze at. The wind advisory has been extended until 8 AM and, quite honestly, I'd be rather surprised if they didn't extend it further than even that. The storm will, thankfully, begin to move away tonight so that we don't get it too bad tonight, and we finally get rid of most of the rain around noon tomorrow. Beyond that, it appears as though we'll be quite dry for several days and there is no precipitation in sight. Let's just get through the next 36 hours or so, and we'll be in the clear.
In the Atlantic- The low in the Bay of Campeche briefly became Tropical Depression #9, but it failed to become a tropical storm before it hit the west coast of the Yucatan this morning. Otherwise, it isn't going to be a very interesting week in the basin.
In the Pacific- A low developing off Mexico could become Tropical Storm Vance, but it is too far out for any details at this time.
Today in weather history- October 23, 2005- In an event generally forgotten because of Wilma (see yesterday's post), Tropical Storm Alpha kills 12 in Hispanola and becomes the record-breaking twenty-second named storm of 2005. This occurs because the NHC will name storms after exhausting the regular list after the letters of the Greek alphabet. In fact, they get all the way down to Zeta (the sixth letter on the list) and add another storm that should have been named but they missed, making the 2005 season by far the most active on record with 28 named storms (and thirty-one tropical depressions- so we weren't far off from having Tropical Storms Eta (there should have been), Theta, Iota, and Kappa!)
Today is going to be a bit better than last night, fortunately, but still rather nasty indeed with heavy rain and gusty wind. Thankfully, we made it through last night without too much trouble, but what a night indeed. 7,000 people, however, are waking up in the dark this morning, which is nothing to sneeze at. The wind advisory has been extended until 8 AM and, quite honestly, I'd be rather surprised if they didn't extend it further than even that. The storm will, thankfully, begin to move away tonight so that we don't get it too bad tonight, and we finally get rid of most of the rain around noon tomorrow. Beyond that, it appears as though we'll be quite dry for several days and there is no precipitation in sight. Let's just get through the next 36 hours or so, and we'll be in the clear.
In the Atlantic- The low in the Bay of Campeche briefly became Tropical Depression #9, but it failed to become a tropical storm before it hit the west coast of the Yucatan this morning. Otherwise, it isn't going to be a very interesting week in the basin.
In the Pacific- A low developing off Mexico could become Tropical Storm Vance, but it is too far out for any details at this time.
Today in weather history- October 23, 2005- In an event generally forgotten because of Wilma (see yesterday's post), Tropical Storm Alpha kills 12 in Hispanola and becomes the record-breaking twenty-second named storm of 2005. This occurs because the NHC will name storms after exhausting the regular list after the letters of the Greek alphabet. In fact, they get all the way down to Zeta (the sixth letter on the list) and add another storm that should have been named but they missed, making the 2005 season by far the most active on record with 28 named storms (and thirty-one tropical depressions- so we weren't far off from having Tropical Storms Eta (there should have been), Theta, Iota, and Kappa!)
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
It may be late, but I should update here
Wind Advisory for southern New Haven, Middlesex until 2 AM
The storm tonight is turning out to be far nastier than expected as it undergoes bombogenesis just south of Long Island. In fact, I wouldn't be stunned to see someone get a peak wind gust near 60 in some of the stronger storms. Additionally, there could be scattered waterspouts & tornadoes this evening as well. This is a truly remarkable storm for this time of year. Power outages are also a distinct possibility with 4,000 CL&P customers out as of 10 PM this evening. Keep your fingers crossed that you aren't among the unlucky ones, have a good evening, and stay safe.
The storm tonight is turning out to be far nastier than expected as it undergoes bombogenesis just south of Long Island. In fact, I wouldn't be stunned to see someone get a peak wind gust near 60 in some of the stronger storms. Additionally, there could be scattered waterspouts & tornadoes this evening as well. This is a truly remarkable storm for this time of year. Power outages are also a distinct possibility with 4,000 CL&P customers out as of 10 PM this evening. Keep your fingers crossed that you aren't among the unlucky ones, have a good evening, and stay safe.
10/22- Getting wetter...
Good Wednesday everyone-
Today is going to be significantly wetter than yesterday, I'm afraid, as a steady rain develops this morning and it is, quite honestly, going to last all day today, tomorrow, and the morning hours of Friday. On the positive note, a very nice weekend appears to be in store for us here, with temps in the mid-60s and bright sunshine, with a similar forecast early next week.
Sorry for the brief discussion today, but the computer model website is down this morning, so I have to go with what they say on the news only :(. Hopefully it comes back tomorrow.
In the Atlantic- The low in the Bay of Campeche has indeed strengthened into Tropical Depression 9 as it moves east towards the Yucatan. This is a highly bizarre track, since most weather patterns in the Atlantic basin move east to west- in fact, the last time a hurricane hit the west coast of the Yucatan was 1995's Hurricane Roxanne, and you have to go back further than that to find the last time one actually made landfall there (In fact, I am not sure it ever has).
In the Pacific- No development anytime soon.
Today in weather history- October 22, 2005- Hurricane Wilma, the only W named storm in the history of the Atlantic basin, clobbers the Yucatan as a 130 mph category 4 hurricane. Two days prior, the hurricane hit record peak intensity, which is certainly interesting because it isn't exactly the most remembered storm in the Atlantic. The previous record holder, however, was very much a household name (1988's Hurricane Gilbert). Either way, Wilma proves very strong in its' own right, and does enough damage to be retired.
Today is going to be significantly wetter than yesterday, I'm afraid, as a steady rain develops this morning and it is, quite honestly, going to last all day today, tomorrow, and the morning hours of Friday. On the positive note, a very nice weekend appears to be in store for us here, with temps in the mid-60s and bright sunshine, with a similar forecast early next week.
Sorry for the brief discussion today, but the computer model website is down this morning, so I have to go with what they say on the news only :(. Hopefully it comes back tomorrow.
In the Atlantic- The low in the Bay of Campeche has indeed strengthened into Tropical Depression 9 as it moves east towards the Yucatan. This is a highly bizarre track, since most weather patterns in the Atlantic basin move east to west- in fact, the last time a hurricane hit the west coast of the Yucatan was 1995's Hurricane Roxanne, and you have to go back further than that to find the last time one actually made landfall there (In fact, I am not sure it ever has).
In the Pacific- No development anytime soon.
Today in weather history- October 22, 2005- Hurricane Wilma, the only W named storm in the history of the Atlantic basin, clobbers the Yucatan as a 130 mph category 4 hurricane. Two days prior, the hurricane hit record peak intensity, which is certainly interesting because it isn't exactly the most remembered storm in the Atlantic. The previous record holder, however, was very much a household name (1988's Hurricane Gilbert). Either way, Wilma proves very strong in its' own right, and does enough damage to be retired.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
10/21- Here we go...
Good Tuesday all-
Unfortunately, today is the first in a long line of wet days. Today is going to be the least wet of these days though, so enjoy it? Either way, only scattered showers are likely today, whereas it's pretty much going to pour all day tomorrow and Thursday, and there will still be some showers around Friday morning. On all days, temperatures are going to be in the mid-50s, so it'll be an ice cold rain as well, adding to our misery. The bright side to this, however, is that the weekend looks absolutely fantastic with sunny skies and temps in the mid-60s. The early part of next week looks dry as well.
In the Atlantic- The low in the Gulf may become Tropical Storm Hanna (the 2008 version of which hit Connecticut directly as a tropical storm- if the name seems familiar that's probably why) and drift...southeast? Then some models have it drifting off the Southeast coast for several days, which is just..weird. This could be a very bizarre storm, so it'll be fun for me to track.
In the Pacific- No development anytime soon.
Today in weather history- October 21, 1638- In a truly bizarre event, a strong tornado hits...southwest England, and- in an amazing instance of the worst possible luck- strikes a church directly in the middle of service, leading to the death of 50 people.
Unfortunately, today is the first in a long line of wet days. Today is going to be the least wet of these days though, so enjoy it? Either way, only scattered showers are likely today, whereas it's pretty much going to pour all day tomorrow and Thursday, and there will still be some showers around Friday morning. On all days, temperatures are going to be in the mid-50s, so it'll be an ice cold rain as well, adding to our misery. The bright side to this, however, is that the weekend looks absolutely fantastic with sunny skies and temps in the mid-60s. The early part of next week looks dry as well.
In the Atlantic- The low in the Gulf may become Tropical Storm Hanna (the 2008 version of which hit Connecticut directly as a tropical storm- if the name seems familiar that's probably why) and drift...southeast? Then some models have it drifting off the Southeast coast for several days, which is just..weird. This could be a very bizarre storm, so it'll be fun for me to track.
In the Pacific- No development anytime soon.
Today in weather history- October 21, 1638- In a truly bizarre event, a strong tornado hits...southwest England, and- in an amazing instance of the worst possible luck- strikes a church directly in the middle of service, leading to the death of 50 people.
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