6/30- Fine today as we say goodbye to June, severe tomorrow?

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be an absolutely beautiful day. albeit a bit warm for many people's taste. It's looking like the high 80s are in the offing for today, with perhaps a town or two in far northern Connecticut striking the 90 degree mark briefly during the afternoon hours. Tomorrow, however, I am concerned about severe weather as a cold front approaches at the perfect time from the west. Although I believe the highest risk will be just barely off to our west...I cannot rule out hail and damaging winds. Thankfully, there is no precipitation in the forecast until Tuesday, but that could be a soaker if things come together with the storm track. That's something I will be watching closely, but please be aware that it's not out of the realm of possibility that Tuesday is a complete washout.

In the tropics, no development is expected in the Atlantic, and the status of the low in the Pacific tht I discussed yesterday has not changed whatsoever.

Today in weather history- June 30, 1989- Winnfield, LA records 22.52" of rain in a 3 day period, and over 30" for the month of June. By comparison, the average annual rainfall at BDL is 46.16"...so nearly half of that fell in 3 days!

6/29- Wet

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be quite a bit wetter than I expect yesterday. The front has stalled out just barely to our east, and so rain showers will be prevalent through much of the day today, which is absolutely fantastic news as we really need the precip- most of the state is hovering at around 6" below normal for 2016. Some of these showers could be rather heavy, so bring an umbrella! As for tomorrow, I expect dryer weather and we'll lose at least some of the humidity, but not all of it- it's tough to get a low-humidity day here practically in July. When we say hello to the new month on Friday, it'll be showery again- similar to today, quite honestly. The rest of the weekend leading up to and including the 4th of July looks dry.

No development in the Atlantic is expected anytime soon

In the Pacific- That low I discussed yesterday is now by far the most likely system to date to become Agatha at some point in the coming week or so as it moves through favorable conditions and parallels the Mexican coastline. At the moment, it's too early to know whether it poses any threat to the Baja Peninsula.

Today in weather history- June 29, 1931- Monticello, FL reaches 109, the state record for Florida. Combined with the humidity they regularly experience there...yikes.

Also, June 29, 1987- Mt. Evans, CO manages to receive 6" of heavy snow. Although exceedingly rare, it's not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen as the highest elevations of Colorado probably only average 40-50 degree highs in the middle of summer. In fact...when I went to Rocky Mountain National Park in August...I experienced a heavy sleet event. Thus...if you like warm weather...the mountain peaks of Colorado are not the place to go!

6/28- Much needed rain

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be one of the worst days in quite a while, but that really isn't saying much. The temperatures will be in the high 70s or low 80s for the most part, but...showers are actually possible through the day today. The bulk of the rain though should be around midnight tonight as the actual cold front moves through, though it won't really do all that much. Tomorrow looks like mid-80s, as do Thursday and Friday. Friday may feature storms, but they will be highly scattered and should not be too big of a deal. A look at the 4th of July weekend suggests that it will be fantastic- 80s and sunny throughout!

In the Atlantic- No development is expected

In the Pacific- A low currently over Nicaragua has a pretty decent chance of developing about a week from now as it moves parallel to, but west of, the Mexican coastline.

Today in weather history- June 28, 1923- A large tornado strikes Sandusky, OH, then crosses Lake Erie and moves into Lorain. In all, 86 people are killed and $12 million (1923USD) in damage is done. If this occurred today...it would be far worse, because a major theme park named Cedar Point...which is located on the shores of Lake Erie in Sandusky...has caused the city to expand greatly through the years. Let's hope very much that tornadoes avoid the Sandusky area for generations to come.

6/27- Getting a Bit Wet

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be fine, albeit a bit warm for many people's taste- it's looking like mid-80s for us during the afternoon. For the weather itself, sunny skies should prevail for the day. As for tomorrow, the weather will finally give us some much needed water- showers are likely pretty much all day. It won't be heavy, but it'll be on and off through the day. A few thunderstorms containing a fair bit of heavier precip is possible, but I think most of our Tuesday will be just sprinkles. The rest of the week has some question marks, as models disagree about whether Wednesday will be wet or not. At the moment, I'd guess it will be similar to tomorrow...but of course it's hard to really know without model agreement. Thursday looks fine, but more showers are possible Friday night, setting up a beautiful 4th of July weekend!

There is no development expected in either the Atlantic or Pacific basins at this time.

Today in weather history- June 27, 1957- Hurricane Audrey makes its' final landfall in Louisiana, killing 390 people and doing $150 million (1957USD) in damage. Audrey was a category 4 hurricane upon final landfall...making this by far the strongest June hurricane on record. That it made landfall at peak intensity surely worsened the impacts...as it was attempting to become a cat 5 but ran out of time.

Also noteworthy- June 27, 1901- Tiller's Ferry, SC picks up a heavy shower of...fish! This typically happens in a strong thunderstorm that has produced a waterspout, as the fish will be lifted into the storm by the updrafts and then deposited on land somewhere...so this is not as unusual as you would think, but still...

6/24- Gorgeous for now

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!

Today is going to be a typical summer day in every sense of the word. We're going to be blessed with bright sunshine today, and temperatures that should hold in the low to mid 80s. All in all, that's about average for late June, and we should certainly enjoy it! The weekend looks dry as well, and when combined with temperatures that will generally be around 85, that's not all that bad. The rain returns on Tuesday, and beyond that a rather moist pattern looks to establish itself in New England, and in a far-too-early look at the holiday coming up, it looks rather moist. Take that with a cup of salt though- it will almost certainly change countless times between now and then!

In the Atlantic- A low pressure system over the Yucatan is going to try and pull a TS Danielle on us today, though it probably only has a one in four shot or so. If it does develop, it would be Earl (which you may remember from the 2010 season as a major hurricane that threatened New England for quite some time), and break a large variety of different records, but I will post those if it is in fact named later today.

In the Pacific- No development is expected in the next several days.

Today in weather history- June 24, 1924- A candidate for the "that was stupid!" awards occurs here, as six men at a rock quarry take shelter from a thunderstorm, which is a great idea about 99.99% of the time, but not when the building is full of dynamite. Naturally, lightning struck nearby, which ignited the dynamite, blowing up the building and killing all of them. One of the rare times that you are better off outside during a thunderstorm!

6/22- Complex Forecast

Good Wednesday all-

Today is one of those days as a meteorologist that you say what you think, bite your fingernails, pray, or do whatever you choose to make yourself less nervous. Here's what we do know- there will be rain tomorrow, the question is how much. It's extremely close between a few scattered showers...and pouring rain all day. At the moment, the models (and I) appear to be favoring the scattered shower solution. Thus, I think that we should be able to eek out without a total washout, but...don't bank on it quite yet. As we look beyond that, hot weather appears to be the norm for the weekend and early next week, as we approach 90 Saturday through Monday...but then a cold front moves through Tuesday night. If it moves through at the right time, that could produce severe weather, but it's too far out to know that for sure. Thankfully, that should knock temperatures back down to normal by the middle to end of next week as an active pattern comes to New England.

Both the Atlantic & Pacific are completely quiet at this time.

Please note that I am going to Fenway Park tonight and spending the night in Massachusetts. Thus, I will be unable to post tomorrow, so my next post will be Friday 6/24.

Today in weather history- June 22, 1947- Holt, MO records one foot of rain in forty-two minutes, establishing the world record for heaviest rainfall over that time period. It would later be tied in Hawaii, but this is amazing to think about...remember it usually takes a full day of rain here to produce an inch, so essentially it's a bit less than two weeks of straight rain falling in 42 minutes. Yikes!

6/21- Considerable Questions

Good Tuesday all-

I hate forecasts like this with a passion, and this is going to be, quite honestly, little more than guesswork for Thursday. The models are absolutely all over the place with some showing over an inch of rain and others suggesting partly cloudy conditions. Big help. Thankfully, today is easier to predict, as our rotating storms from earlier have moved out of the region (no tornadoes were reported, but they were rotating). Additionally, we can rely on some cool weather for late June. Now that summer is in full swing, we are looking at temps in the mid 80s today and getting progressively cooler as time goes on, bottoming out in the low 70s on Thursday. The good news though? There is no rain in the forecast except for Thursday. My gut says rain, but it's been wrong before, and certainly will be wrong again, so we kind of just have to wait and see. Note the differences below...


^ GFS model showing heavy rain all day on Thursday


 ^CMC showing no rain at all at the same time- greeeat

Today in weather history- June 21, 2005- Colorado Springs, CO picks up one foot of hail, causing the city to bring their snowplows out to clear the roads!