10/26- The Curse of October 29th Strikes Again- MAJOR Storm Likely

Good evening everyone-

I'm here with an update on what is going to be a massive and potentially damaging storm to Connecticut on Sunday evening.

This has come up very quickly on models- as recently as 36 hours ago, there was no indication of this, but now the system is seemingly getting more significant with each passing run.

Right now, we have two distinct model camps- the GFS/Canadian model and the European/UK model. Based on the fact that this is a very similar setup to what delivered Hurricane Sandy to New Jersey...and the success of the European model in the past...I'm more inclined to believe the more western camp of models. Should the eastern models varify (and most meteorologists, including myself, believe this to be rather unlikely)--you can cut all the wind values I am about to post roughly in half. I am fairly comfortable with my forecast though- the GFS was in the western camp earlier today, and the 18z run is notorious for producing garbage solutions, so here we go.

Timing: Rain should arrive sometime early Sunday afternoon and last for roughly a full day, ending early to mid-afternoon on Monday.

MAJOR THREATS

1. Heavy Rain- This is going to happen even if the eastern outliers are correct. Extremely intense rainfall is going to happen Sunday night, with 3-6" of rain widespread...with locally higher amounts possible. The ground is already saturated thanks to the biggest rainstorm CT has seen in six years Tuesday...but this may surpass it too!

2. Strong to Damaging Wind- This is highly, highly dependent on track. If it goes east, as I was saying, you can cut these numbers by one third to one half. For now, I think most areas on the shoreline will experience near or above Tropical Storm conditions, or a sustained wind of 40mph, for at least a few hours. Inland, it's likely to be more in the 25-35mph range as a general rule. The real fun, however, is in the gusts. Computer models have been massively aggressive on these, especially the European run this afternoon (which puts the storm over NYC). Using a general compromise of the data I've been looking at, I would expect peak gusts to be between 45 and 65mph. It wouldn't shock me if a shoreline town hit 70mph. The Euro is significantly more agressive than this, showing hurricane force gusts for more than half of the entire state, which...yeah that would be pretty darn bad. For reference, the peak wind gust in CT during Hurricane Irene was 65mph, and the peak wind gust during Sandy in our state was 85mph. Thus...something between the two seems most likely at the moment.

3. Storm Surge- Again, this is highly dependent on the exact track our system takes, but if it passes to our west ala the Euro, water would be given the chance to pile into LIS from east to west, ultimately causing a fairly significant amount of coastal flooding and damage. Fortunately, the difference is that this storm is NOT coming at an astronomical high tide by any stretch. Regardless of track though, thanks to the weaker system and smaller size, this will NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS BAD AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED IN SANDY/IRENE UNLESS SOMETHING MAJOR CHANGES.

In summary, what do I think the actual impact will be perceived as? Ultimately, a Euro-type storm would produce Sandy/Irene type impacts with massive power outages, trees down, and coastal flooding and erosion- Cosey Beach are you listening? One very trustworthy local meteorologist put it best this afternoon. He was asked on twitter "Will this be as bad as Sandy?". His response was, essentially, as a whole, not even close. In individual local areas though...yes, it could be. I couldn't agree more. This storm will not have the 1000 mile windfield or the devastating storm surge we saw five years ago on the Jersey/NYC/CT shoreline. That said, we look to be perfectly in the windfield, set up for some coastal flooding, and get another half foot of rain into an already saturated ground. The damage could be significant. My advice...prepare for this system as you would prepare for a hurricane. There is a scenario in which you could be out of power for several days...and you'd always rather be safe than sorry.

I'll have a full update tomorrow morning with the latest on this major, major storm.
^^^The 12z Euro putting a storm with the minimum pressure equivalent of a category 1 hurricane directly into Manhattan. This is the worst possible outcome for tropical systems in CT, and would result in a historic event, with extreme power outages and significant damage.


^^^18z GFS, much farther east than the Euro, however the run before this showed...

^^^12z GFS, showing nearly the exact same thing as the Euro.

Which one is right? Take your pick. The worst of the three would be the Euro- the 12z GFS is actually "too direct" of a hit for extreme wind in CT, as the strongest wind would be over Cape Cod and eastern MA if it verified.

10/20- Major Rainstorm for Tuesday

Happy Friday everyone-

There is no change to the forecast I gave earlier this week for the next three days. However, there is one issue in the forecast now- and that is Tuesday. It truly looks like a total washout starting mid afternoon, with heavy rain pretty much all day thanks to a low that will develop along a cold front and ride the coastline all the way up into southern New England. As a general rule, 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain can be expected, with highs then proceeding to go from the mid 70s to the low 60s- quite a significant dropoff and near the average temperature for this time of year.


^^A very wet Tuesday afternoon and evening

If the World Series is played at Yankee Stadium next weekend, the weather looks dry with average temperatures- generally the mid to upper 50s around gametime. A early look at Halloween suggests fiendishly below average temperatures with highs in the upper 40s or low 50s with dry conditions.

10/16- Beautiful Week

Good Monday all-

Not much to talk about in the weather world today- although Hurricane Ophelia is hitting Ireland this morning...but we're dry and sunny until, well...a really long time from now. In fact, I expect sunny conditions and slightly above average temperatures until Saturday...well except tomorrow, which will feature temperatures stuck in the mid-50s through the entire afternoon. Otherwise, I have nothing to talk about- I just wanted to post something here- so get out there and enjoy a wonderful October week!

10/9- Remnants of Nate

Greetings all-

Apologies for my extended absence from this blog. One of my dogs was eaten by a coyote last weekend and I was dealing with that for quite some time.

I'm back now though, but unfortunately I bring Hurricane Nate's remnants with me, which means that pouring rain is expected for the vast majority of the day today. This could impact the baseball games scheduled for this afternoon at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium, and could be highly significant as these are playoff games but we will have to wait and see how that plays out. Regardless, tomorrow looks much better, with highs generally in the upper 70s and moderate humidity...but a strong cold front will move through in the late afternoon tomorrow. This will come through dry, but the temperatures will be a good 10-15 degrees cooler on Wednesday with a risk of showers in the afternoon thanks to a frontal system stalled just to our south. The clouds will stick around for Thursday- though I think we get through most of the day dry, but showers are likely Thursday morning. We finally clear things out completely for Friday, and then we get back to the warmer weather Saturday.

Long range models suggest a major cold snap in roughly two weeks. Be ready- this could feature the first flakes of '17-'18.

9/26- Fall FINALLY- Very Nice Week

Good Tuesday evening--

What a great few days it has been...at least if you like heat. Highs today reached 90 for the third straight day for a rare late September heat wave here in Connecticut, and tomorrow we will come close again (but likely fall a few degrees short). By the afternoon though, clouds will be on the increase and a strong cold front will push into southern New England, with some isolated showers possible, especially in the late afternoon. The precip will come to an end by Thursday morning, but it will have knocked the temperatures down nearly 15 degrees- highs on Thursday will be in the low 70s and by the weekend, highs will be in the 60s...which, although it sounds cold, is actually very close to average for this time of year. That's a fair tradeoff though- this cold front also saves the northeast from Hurricane Maria, which will be pushed out to our southeast. We do warm things up a bit next week...but only into the low 70s, which is not at all unusual. It would not surprise me if tomorrow is the last 80 degree day of 2017. We will see of course- it's always possible to get one somewhere further down the line- but it is way harder as we approach the fall season.

Also noteworthy is that today, thanks to hurricanes Maria and Lee, we have just broken the all-time record for the most active month in the history of the Atlantic basin...surpassing September of 2005. This month featured Irma (cat 5), Jose (very high end cat 4- 1mph away from cat 5), Katia (cat. 2), Lee (cat 3) and Maria (cat 4). That's pretty impressive to say the least!

9/22- Fall Begins Very Warm, MUCH colder next week

HAPPY FRIDAY-

Trust me, nobody's happier this one is here than me. I had three papers and a test last week, so my apologies for not posting.

Jose is gone, and behind it we have summer-like weather on this day as we say goodbye to summer. 4:02 PM today is the autumnal equinox. The weather will be incredible for the next few days though- temperatures will be in the 80s to, if you can believe it, near 90(!!!) tomorrow. We do, however, finally see the temperatures nose-dive around next weekend. Some models actually suggest some days with highs in the 40s a week from Tuesday. That may not be particularly likely, but that goes to show exactly how much we cool off. If you're looking the bright spot, consider this- this cold outbreak 1- shows that fall truly is here and more importantly 2- keeps New England from getting a catastrophic hurricane next week as it will force Maria out to sea to the southeast.

All in all, hop on the temperature roller coaster and enjoy your ride! As for precipitation, the wettest day of the next 7 appears to be Friday as the Maria-deflecting cold front moves into the region.


It's been fun, summer- see you in June!


The season of pumpkins, turkeys, beautiful leaves, and first flakes is here. Happy fall! May it bring you as many fond memories as possible!

9/15- SEVERE STORM WATCH- This Way, Jose!

Happy FRIDAY everyone!

Tropical Storm Jose has taken another jog to the west overnight...and the computer models are now far closer to the shore than they were yesterday morning. A plurality of model runs are now forecasting a direct hit in a mere four days. As a result...I have to issue a SEVERE STORM WATCH for Jose, with tropical storm conditions likely...and hurricane conditions possible...on Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning.

Here are some good comparisons to use:

GFS model-

Yesterday:

^^^0z GFS from Thursday morning. Jose is way out to sea

Now:

^^^0z GFS from this morning showing a direct hit on the region

OUCH. The first would have been nothing but some surf, but the second introduces hurricane conditions to Connecticut for the first time in 22 years.


^^Spaghetti models...they are much, much further west than yesterday.

All in all, I suggest to prepare for TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. It is possible we get hurricane conditions, and I will certainly blog if the most likely outcome goes from missing by about 25-50 miles to a direct landfall on our area.

Also, if you live on the shoreline, Wednesday is the new moon. That's just asking for a major disaster when a hurricane is nearby...so please be extra careful.