Tropical Storm Jose has taken another jog to the west overnight...and the computer models are now far closer to the shore than they were yesterday morning. A plurality of model runs are now forecasting a direct hit in a mere four days. As a result...I have to issue a SEVERE STORM WATCH for Jose, with tropical storm conditions likely...and hurricane conditions possible...on Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning.
Here are some good comparisons to use:
GFS model-
Yesterday:
^^^0z GFS from Thursday morning. Jose is way out to sea
Now:
^^^0z GFS from this morning showing a direct hit on the region
OUCH. The first would have been nothing but some surf, but the second introduces hurricane conditions to Connecticut for the first time in 22 years.
^^Spaghetti models...they are much, much further west than yesterday.
All in all, I suggest to prepare for TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. It is possible we get hurricane conditions, and I will certainly blog if the most likely outcome goes from missing by about 25-50 miles to a direct landfall on our area.
Also, if you live on the shoreline, Wednesday is the new moon. That's just asking for a major disaster when a hurricane is nearby...so please be extra careful.
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