I have seen a disturbing trend in computer models today and therefore am going to change my 7-day forecast for you..see below (the change will be clear)
Saturday- Sunny and real warm. High: 70
Sunday- Partly cloudy, high 72
Monday- Sunny and amazingly warm, high 75-80
Tuesday- Heavy rain and potentially some thunderstorms as a powerful cold front moves through
Now for the trouble...
Wednesday and Thursday- The front responsible for bringing in the cold air stalls southeast of southern New England, while a low pressure center develops along it (There was no model showing this earlier today). If this happens...well I don't think I would be a very popular person as it would likely be just cold enough and the low in a location where we (believe it or not) could get a shocking blizzard on April 17, yes I really said April 17. This probably only has about a 10-20% chance of occuring, but it would be quite crippling with the leaves primarily on the trees, and if you get, say, 8 to 15 inches of heavy wet snow and strong winds...well, we all know what happened a few Octobers ago. Again, is it likely? NO. Could it happen? Yes. Do we have confidence in anything for this time period? Yes- frigid temps with highs maybe even in the 30s. Stay tuned, as this is a significant event. Thus, I am going into storm watch mode for this week. We'll see!
I have decided to issue something in my forecasts beginning now called a 'storm watch'. When this occurs, it means there is a greater than 15% chance of a storm of significance (greater than 2 inches of rain, 5 inches of snow, 1/4 inch of ice, or any tropical cyclone) one week out, a 30% chance three days out, a 50-50 chance two days out, and a 75% chance the day prior. Right now...next weeks storm is at about 15%...so I will begin this process. During 'storm watches', I'll update twice a day instead of the usual once (I'll aim for about 7 AM and 7 PM) with the latest trends and my current thoughts on the situation. Until tomorrow, then!
Will we in Connecticut be doing this soon?
image credit to http://chuckmanchicagonostalgia.wordpress.com/2011/07/06/photo-chicago-wabash-and-wacker-snow-in-april-woman-writing-on-her-windshield-1959/photo-chicago-wabash-and-wacker-snow-in-april-woman-writing-on-her-windshield-1959/
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