Good Wednesday all!
Today is going to get progressively better, though scattered showers and storms are very likely all day today. This, however, is just a warmup for tomorrow- a total washout! I am forced to issue a rather sudden storm warning for tomorrow because of 1.5-2.5" of rain statewide and I recommend you think of plans indoors tomorrow unless you want to get drenched. Fortunately, we clear out on Friday and reduce only to scattered showers and storms around from Friday to Sunday.
In the Pacific- Boris made landfall as a Tropical Storm near Chiapas, Mexico overnight last night and delivered drenching rains to the region, which can be quite devastating there because you have to worry about landslides. Besides that, I expect no tropical activity this week.
In the Atlantic- A low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico has been trying to develop for several days and it may succeed, but probably not before Monday at the earliest, since strong wind shear will inhibit it further. Beyond that, the storm path will likely take it towards Florida's west coast, near Tampa Bay if you believe the computer models. Unfortunately...what matters to us is what happens beyond that time. As I see it, there are four possibilities with an equal chance of happening.
1. The storm never forms at all, in which case it doesn't matter at all. This is the most likely solution (50%)
The following three have roughly equal chances
2. The storm crosses Florida and crosses far out to sea...this is the most likely solution if it forms...so far.
3. The storm moves inland over the Carolinas and gives rain to Connecticut.
4. (The least likely, so don't panic, I am NOT trying to hype this possibility, but it deserves mention since it is about a 5% chance)- The storm crosses Florida, gets captured by a trough, passes over the gulf stream to strengthen it/maintain its' intensity, and gets forced into southern New England by a Bermuda high as a strong Tropical Storm or weak Hurricane by two weekends from now... again, this is HIGHLY unlikely. This is only indicated by two GFS ensembles (not even the main model), but there is a chance as there has been a few indicators of this possibility lately.
Today in weather history- June 4, 1825- In a bizarre event, a hurricane manages to form near Cuba and take the death path for southern New England, bringing the region its' earliest hurricane on record. The storm causes damage from Charleston, SC to Boston, and kills a large number of people when a schooner floundered off the coast of Long Island.
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