8/31- Farewell August!

Good Thursday all-

Watching the tropics is the big story of the day today. Some thunderstorms are possible here in CT this afternoon- not severe by any means, but don't be shocked by an isolated rumble or two as we head through the afternoon and evening hours. The weekend's big stories will be 1- the remnants of Hurricane Harvey on Sunday, but that shouldn't be too big of a deal...2- A beautiful Labor Day...and 3- Near record lows tomorrow night- we will likely be in the mid 40s, and the record low of 43 is reachable for the Hartford area...we shall see.

Unfortunately, everything may take a backseat over the coming days to what will be Major Hurricane Irma and her progress across the Atlantic basin. The storm has an eye feature this morning and will almost certainly attain hurricane status at 11 AM. Models are extremely aggressive on developing this one, and many make this a category 5 either in or just north of the Caribbean. My thoughts regarding the path have not changed since yesterday, but I am concerned that a high pressure system in the central Atlantic could block a recurve. A decent analog to start with would be 2003's Hurricane Isabel, which obtained Category 5 intensity north of the Caribbean before clobbering North Carolina as a category 2 after it traveled the entire Atlantic ocean.


^^^Path of Isabel 2003. Irma could take a similar path at a similar intensity

That said, don't pay it much heed for now- any impacts on our weather here in CT would be well over a week away. In five days, it will be approaching the Antilles. Plenty of time to watch this one, and I will be doing so.

Lastly, I have created a twitter account, my handle is @stevectweather. Feel free to follow me there for more Irma stuff and general weather stuff, especially as we head into the snowy season here in New England.

8/30- Looking Back on Harvey and ahead to Irma

Good Wednesday all-

What a crazy week of weather it has been, with the most important hurricane in years striking Texas. This is one that will go down in the record books as the highest rainfall total ever produced in the lower 48 by a tropical system.with 52" of rain falling on Houston. The current death toll of 15 is likely to rise, perhaps dramatically, over the next few days. It just goes to show that wind is not the be all end all of these things- far more damage was done by the water than the cat 4 winds.

The future however does not look bright for Houston right now as a new tropical system is likely to develop in the Gulf next week and generally move towards the area...ugh...so keep them in your thoughts. One model...the GFS...suggests another 2ft of rain next week. Ouch.

On another note, we have to keep an eye on what will likely be Major Hurricane Irma in the coming days. The system is currently near Cape Verde, and it will be moving generally NW and then SW over the coming week or so. The big question is what happens when it gets to the area just north of the Antilles...and that is anyone's guess, although the pattern does appear favorable for a US impact at some point down the road. It could be anywhere between south Texas and Maine right now though...so we'll have to wait and see.

Locally, we can expect this good stretch of weather to continue for a while more, with the main blip in the forecast being the remnants of Hurricane Harvey this weekend. Labor Day looks dry for now, which is perfect for those last barbecues as we get ready to head into the fall season. Temperatures should be in the mid 70s and mid 80s over the next week or so. Beyond that, all eyes turn to Irma.

The Baja Peninsula of Mexico will likely be impacted by a tropical storm tonight as well, which would be named Lidia.

ANNOUNCEMENT

Greetings-

My apologies for my extended absences from this blog this summer. Between travelling & general craziness, I have not really had much time to do it.

The good news is-

I AM BACK. UPDATES WILL RESUME AS NORMAL BEGINNING TOMORROW, 8/30/17, AND WILL BE ON WEEKDAYS THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

If you know other people who read this blog, please let them know about this as I am sure not that many people check every day anymore.

Thank you for sticking with me.

Of course, my prayers go out to the victims of Hurricane Harvey in Houston. I will absolutely have a larger discussion on this storm tomorrow morning.

8/4- Hot and Humid Again

Happy Friday everyone-

Today is going to be pretty similar to the last several in that we can expect temperatures to be in the upper 80s with some afternoon thunderstorms. Having said that, of course, I would be remiss to not mention the storms on Tuesday- wasn't that impressive?! I had some large hail at my home in Naugatuck, and it was probably the most impressive storm that I have been in regarding hail. As for this upcoming weekend, it appears pretty good, with some showers and storms likely to impact our area tomorrow afternoon, but high temperatures should be in the low 80s for almost all of the next 7 days...with the exception being Monday, which looks significantly cloudier and cooler- temps will likely be stuck in the 70s with a chance of showers in the afternoon.

The major story right now in the weather world is the tropics. A couple of systems are posing serious development risks. One is in the Caribbean, and another is near Cape Verde. What is interesting is the models disagree dramatically about the one near Cape Verde- the one more likely to develop, but both are fairly likely. Here's the difference...

^^6z GFS showing a massive hurricane near the Bahamas. Ultimately, the storm ends up scraping the outer banks and comes dangerously close to New England.

^^ 0z Euro showing no system at all at the same time period (a week from Sunday- or 10 days).

Which is right? I have absolutely no idea...so let's watch this one closely, yes? 

The next two names on the Atlantic list are Franklin and Gert. I think the storm near Cape Verde will be Franklin, and the Caribbean storm will be Gert.

8/1- August Starts Stormy

Happy new month everyone and Tuesday-

And here is a heat wave for you! We start August with a bunch of scorchers, with at least some thunderstorm risk on each day of the next five...except for today, which looks to be bone dry unless the daytime heating produces a popup shower or tstorm, a possibility which is low...but not zero. That said, the heat and humidity is here to stay for the majority of the next week, so if you don't like it, things are not looking good. If you do love the heat though this weather is for you- it's wonderful beach weather as well, so if you want to head down to the shoreline, today is a very good day to do so- and possibly the best since we have the lowest thunderstorm risk today. Temperatures for most of the next week will be between 85-95, with the next three within a degree or two of the 90 degree marker.

Tropical Storm Emily formed out of the blue yesterday morning right over Tampa Bay and made a final landfall in St. Petersburg, causnig a great deal of flooding rain for Florida, but not much else. The rest of the Atlantic and Pacific basins are quiet, but there is an area to watch in the Pacific basin, especially around this weekend. Now that August is here, we are rapidly approaching the peak of the hurricane season, so pay extra close attention for the next three months or so.

Enjoy what remains of summer- we are slightly over a month away from the beginning of the foliage season and, of course, a bit less than a month from the beginning of the 2017-18 school year.