Wednesday, August 30, 2017

8/30- Looking Back on Harvey and ahead to Irma

Good Wednesday all-

What a crazy week of weather it has been, with the most important hurricane in years striking Texas. This is one that will go down in the record books as the highest rainfall total ever produced in the lower 48 by a tropical system.with 52" of rain falling on Houston. The current death toll of 15 is likely to rise, perhaps dramatically, over the next few days. It just goes to show that wind is not the be all end all of these things- far more damage was done by the water than the cat 4 winds.

The future however does not look bright for Houston right now as a new tropical system is likely to develop in the Gulf next week and generally move towards the area...ugh...so keep them in your thoughts. One model...the GFS...suggests another 2ft of rain next week. Ouch.

On another note, we have to keep an eye on what will likely be Major Hurricane Irma in the coming days. The system is currently near Cape Verde, and it will be moving generally NW and then SW over the coming week or so. The big question is what happens when it gets to the area just north of the Antilles...and that is anyone's guess, although the pattern does appear favorable for a US impact at some point down the road. It could be anywhere between south Texas and Maine right now though...so we'll have to wait and see.

Locally, we can expect this good stretch of weather to continue for a while more, with the main blip in the forecast being the remnants of Hurricane Harvey this weekend. Labor Day looks dry for now, which is perfect for those last barbecues as we get ready to head into the fall season. Temperatures should be in the mid 70s and mid 80s over the next week or so. Beyond that, all eyes turn to Irma.

The Baja Peninsula of Mexico will likely be impacted by a tropical storm tonight as well, which would be named Lidia.


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