Good Tuesday evening--
What a great few days it has been...at least if you like heat. Highs today reached 90 for the third straight day for a rare late September heat wave here in Connecticut, and tomorrow we will come close again (but likely fall a few degrees short). By the afternoon though, clouds will be on the increase and a strong cold front will push into southern New England, with some isolated showers possible, especially in the late afternoon. The precip will come to an end by Thursday morning, but it will have knocked the temperatures down nearly 15 degrees- highs on Thursday will be in the low 70s and by the weekend, highs will be in the 60s...which, although it sounds cold, is actually very close to average for this time of year. That's a fair tradeoff though- this cold front also saves the northeast from Hurricane Maria, which will be pushed out to our southeast. We do warm things up a bit next week...but only into the low 70s, which is not at all unusual. It would not surprise me if tomorrow is the last 80 degree day of 2017. We will see of course- it's always possible to get one somewhere further down the line- but it is way harder as we approach the fall season.
Also noteworthy is that today, thanks to hurricanes Maria and Lee, we have just broken the all-time record for the most active month in the history of the Atlantic basin...surpassing September of 2005. This month featured Irma (cat 5), Jose (very high end cat 4- 1mph away from cat 5), Katia (cat. 2), Lee (cat 3) and Maria (cat 4). That's pretty impressive to say the least!
Tuesday, September 26, 2017
Friday, September 22, 2017
9/22- Fall Begins Very Warm, MUCH colder next week
HAPPY FRIDAY-
Trust me, nobody's happier this one is here than me. I had three papers and a test last week, so my apologies for not posting.
Jose is gone, and behind it we have summer-like weather on this day as we say goodbye to summer. 4:02 PM today is the autumnal equinox. The weather will be incredible for the next few days though- temperatures will be in the 80s to, if you can believe it, near 90(!!!) tomorrow. We do, however, finally see the temperatures nose-dive around next weekend. Some models actually suggest some days with highs in the 40s a week from Tuesday. That may not be particularly likely, but that goes to show exactly how much we cool off. If you're looking the bright spot, consider this- this cold outbreak 1- shows that fall truly is here and more importantly 2- keeps New England from getting a catastrophic hurricane next week as it will force Maria out to sea to the southeast.
All in all, hop on the temperature roller coaster and enjoy your ride! As for precipitation, the wettest day of the next 7 appears to be Friday as the Maria-deflecting cold front moves into the region.
It's been fun, summer- see you in June!
The season of pumpkins, turkeys, beautiful leaves, and first flakes is here. Happy fall! May it bring you as many fond memories as possible!
Trust me, nobody's happier this one is here than me. I had three papers and a test last week, so my apologies for not posting.
Jose is gone, and behind it we have summer-like weather on this day as we say goodbye to summer. 4:02 PM today is the autumnal equinox. The weather will be incredible for the next few days though- temperatures will be in the 80s to, if you can believe it, near 90(!!!) tomorrow. We do, however, finally see the temperatures nose-dive around next weekend. Some models actually suggest some days with highs in the 40s a week from Tuesday. That may not be particularly likely, but that goes to show exactly how much we cool off. If you're looking the bright spot, consider this- this cold outbreak 1- shows that fall truly is here and more importantly 2- keeps New England from getting a catastrophic hurricane next week as it will force Maria out to sea to the southeast.
All in all, hop on the temperature roller coaster and enjoy your ride! As for precipitation, the wettest day of the next 7 appears to be Friday as the Maria-deflecting cold front moves into the region.
It's been fun, summer- see you in June!
The season of pumpkins, turkeys, beautiful leaves, and first flakes is here. Happy fall! May it bring you as many fond memories as possible!
Friday, September 15, 2017
9/15- SEVERE STORM WATCH- This Way, Jose!
Happy FRIDAY everyone!
Tropical Storm Jose has taken another jog to the west overnight...and the computer models are now far closer to the shore than they were yesterday morning. A plurality of model runs are now forecasting a direct hit in a mere four days. As a result...I have to issue a SEVERE STORM WATCH for Jose, with tropical storm conditions likely...and hurricane conditions possible...on Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning.
Here are some good comparisons to use:
GFS model-
Yesterday:
^^^0z GFS from Thursday morning. Jose is way out to sea
Now:
^^^0z GFS from this morning showing a direct hit on the region
OUCH. The first would have been nothing but some surf, but the second introduces hurricane conditions to Connecticut for the first time in 22 years.
^^Spaghetti models...they are much, much further west than yesterday.
All in all, I suggest to prepare for TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. It is possible we get hurricane conditions, and I will certainly blog if the most likely outcome goes from missing by about 25-50 miles to a direct landfall on our area.
Also, if you live on the shoreline, Wednesday is the new moon. That's just asking for a major disaster when a hurricane is nearby...so please be extra careful.
Tropical Storm Jose has taken another jog to the west overnight...and the computer models are now far closer to the shore than they were yesterday morning. A plurality of model runs are now forecasting a direct hit in a mere four days. As a result...I have to issue a SEVERE STORM WATCH for Jose, with tropical storm conditions likely...and hurricane conditions possible...on Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning.
Here are some good comparisons to use:
GFS model-
Yesterday:
^^^0z GFS from Thursday morning. Jose is way out to sea
Now:
^^^0z GFS from this morning showing a direct hit on the region
OUCH. The first would have been nothing but some surf, but the second introduces hurricane conditions to Connecticut for the first time in 22 years.
^^Spaghetti models...they are much, much further west than yesterday.
All in all, I suggest to prepare for TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. It is possible we get hurricane conditions, and I will certainly blog if the most likely outcome goes from missing by about 25-50 miles to a direct landfall on our area.
Also, if you live on the shoreline, Wednesday is the new moon. That's just asking for a major disaster when a hurricane is nearby...so please be extra careful.
Thursday, September 14, 2017
9/14- All Eyes To the Atlantic
Good Thursday all-
Well, I am going to mostly focus this post in one place- Hurricane Jose- as it appears to be coming closer and closer with each model run. A blocking high to our east is trying to develop, and how strong it is is going to make all the difference in the world. Any impact from Jose would be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
At the minimum? Expect some rain and brief gusty wind, along with elevated surf
At the maximum? I cannot rule out a directly landfalling category 2 hurricane.
That said, as always, the actual outcome will likely fall somewhere between these two extremes. I will be watching closely though. If I lived on Cape Cod...I would be VERY concerned right about now. The last time a hurricane made landfall anywhere in New England was Bob in '91...and this has probably about a 35% chance of doing so.
If I had to put a number on it right now, I would say the odds of seeing actual hurricane conditions in Connecticut is about 15-20%. Not very likely. The odds of tropical storm conditions? Probably about 50-50...which is very high.
All in all, pay very, very close attention to the forecast as time goes on. Models are constantly coming in and we will see exactly what surprises await in the next few days with this (and some surely do).
Well, I am going to mostly focus this post in one place- Hurricane Jose- as it appears to be coming closer and closer with each model run. A blocking high to our east is trying to develop, and how strong it is is going to make all the difference in the world. Any impact from Jose would be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
At the minimum? Expect some rain and brief gusty wind, along with elevated surf
At the maximum? I cannot rule out a directly landfalling category 2 hurricane.
That said, as always, the actual outcome will likely fall somewhere between these two extremes. I will be watching closely though. If I lived on Cape Cod...I would be VERY concerned right about now. The last time a hurricane made landfall anywhere in New England was Bob in '91...and this has probably about a 35% chance of doing so.
If I had to put a number on it right now, I would say the odds of seeing actual hurricane conditions in Connecticut is about 15-20%. Not very likely. The odds of tropical storm conditions? Probably about 50-50...which is very high.
All in all, pay very, very close attention to the forecast as time goes on. Models are constantly coming in and we will see exactly what surprises await in the next few days with this (and some surely do).
Wednesday, September 13, 2017
9/13- No Way, Jose!
Good Tuesday all-
Sorry for the late posting but it's my dog's fault- he literally ate the power cord of my laptop, rendering it unusable for several days. I'm back now, and we have a fair amount to discuss.
First off, the next few days do not look all that great thanks to the remnant moisture of Hurricane Irma and its' interaction with a slow moving cold front off to our west. We will very likely be dealing with shower activity each day between now and Saturday...with tomorrow and Friday looking the wettest. Sunday should be dry, fortunately, with highs near 80 and sunshine likely.
Beyond that though, all eyes shift to one of the most bizarre hurricanes in recent memory. Hurricane Jose has completed a 360 degree loop in the Atlantic, and is expected to move west and then slowly north along the east coast. The problem is that it will then likely slow down again and try to move out to sea, but a blocking high could be in place. If that is the case, it could loop it back into the eastern seaboard somewhere between North Carolina and southern New England. This is a highly complex and strange forecast, so we will have to keep our eyes on it for sure.
Have a great Hump Day!
Sorry for the late posting but it's my dog's fault- he literally ate the power cord of my laptop, rendering it unusable for several days. I'm back now, and we have a fair amount to discuss.
First off, the next few days do not look all that great thanks to the remnant moisture of Hurricane Irma and its' interaction with a slow moving cold front off to our west. We will very likely be dealing with shower activity each day between now and Saturday...with tomorrow and Friday looking the wettest. Sunday should be dry, fortunately, with highs near 80 and sunshine likely.
Beyond that though, all eyes shift to one of the most bizarre hurricanes in recent memory. Hurricane Jose has completed a 360 degree loop in the Atlantic, and is expected to move west and then slowly north along the east coast. The problem is that it will then likely slow down again and try to move out to sea, but a blocking high could be in place. If that is the case, it could loop it back into the eastern seaboard somewhere between North Carolina and southern New England. This is a highly complex and strange forecast, so we will have to keep our eyes on it for sure.
Have a great Hump Day!
Friday, September 1, 2017
9/1- As September Begins, All Eyes on Irma
HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-
What a nice morning we have- and in fact we are going to be very fortunate in that this Labor Day weekend will be beautiful for two-thirds of it. The only trouble spot is Sunday...and that is in association with the remnants of Hurricane Harvey...but it won't be a big deal whatsoever- just some rain and showers on Sunday. Otherwise...we can expect generally partly sunny conditions and temperatures in the 70s from now until Tuesday, when temperatures begin to climb into the 80s.
Of course, the big story today in the weather world remains Hurricane Irma, which is now a category 3 major hurricane. We have to wait and see, but many models have decided to take this into New England as a category 3 or higher hurricane...so this bears close watching as we go through the next week. Any impact is about 9 or 10 days away though...so there certainly is time for changes- and they WILL happen.
What a nice morning we have- and in fact we are going to be very fortunate in that this Labor Day weekend will be beautiful for two-thirds of it. The only trouble spot is Sunday...and that is in association with the remnants of Hurricane Harvey...but it won't be a big deal whatsoever- just some rain and showers on Sunday. Otherwise...we can expect generally partly sunny conditions and temperatures in the 70s from now until Tuesday, when temperatures begin to climb into the 80s.
Of course, the big story today in the weather world remains Hurricane Irma, which is now a category 3 major hurricane. We have to wait and see, but many models have decided to take this into New England as a category 3 or higher hurricane...so this bears close watching as we go through the next week. Any impact is about 9 or 10 days away though...so there certainly is time for changes- and they WILL happen.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)