Good Thursday all-
Well, I am going to mostly focus this post in one place- Hurricane Jose- as it appears to be coming closer and closer with each model run. A blocking high to our east is trying to develop, and how strong it is is going to make all the difference in the world. Any impact from Jose would be Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
At the minimum? Expect some rain and brief gusty wind, along with elevated surf
At the maximum? I cannot rule out a directly landfalling category 2 hurricane.
That said, as always, the actual outcome will likely fall somewhere between these two extremes. I will be watching closely though. If I lived on Cape Cod...I would be VERY concerned right about now. The last time a hurricane made landfall anywhere in New England was Bob in '91...and this has probably about a 35% chance of doing so.
If I had to put a number on it right now, I would say the odds of seeing actual hurricane conditions in Connecticut is about 15-20%. Not very likely. The odds of tropical storm conditions? Probably about 50-50...which is very high.
All in all, pay very, very close attention to the forecast as time goes on. Models are constantly coming in and we will see exactly what surprises await in the next few days with this (and some surely do).
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