Today is going to be utterly miserable I'm afraid. Highs will be in the high 80s and it will be oppressively humid, and not even thunderstorms tonight! Tomorrow, though, the thunderstorms arrive. Thursday...we start having fun with "are you feeling lucky?" episode 1 of 2014. Tropical Depression #1 has formed this morning off the coast of Florida, and Connecticut is in the cone! By the time it gets near us here, to make matters worse, it will probably be a hurricane! The extent of the impacts we see here are entirely dependent on the timing of the cold front, and there are really two base solutions...
#1- 75% chance- Thursday features scattered showers and STRONG storms (severe weather possible- large hail, damaging winds, etc), and we get absolutely drenched on the 4th of July as Hurricane Arthur moves near the 40-70 benchmark
#2- 25% chance- The front stalls just to our west and causes a serious pickle for us here as Arthur rides the front. Thursday would be a bit less volatile, but then rain would begin Friday night and CT would receive the first direct hurricane hit in 29 years (Gloria was the last) in a situation that would likely play out similar to Irene in 2011.
The top shows the probability of Tropical storm Conditions in CT. The NHC puts it at 20-30%, with which I agree. The bottom is the cone of uncertainty.
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