8/21- Keeping a close eye on the tropics...

Good Thursday everyone-

The current weather is going to simply continue what it has been recently- quite nice and temps in the high 70s or low 80s. In fact, this looks like it is going to be the second straight August in which we never reach 90 degrees, but only the 6th time since 1967! Needless to say, this has been an abnormally cool month, and I think the majority of people are going to be absolutely thrilled about it! Rain is possible today, but it is only scattered showers, so I am not concerned about it at all. The big story that is quickly developing for us in New England, however, is the tropics. There is a tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antillies that is likely going to develop into Tropical Storm Cristobal. Unfortunately, it is going to strengthen and take a track into the Bahamas and take a turn to the north. When this happens, it puts us in New England in a very precarious spot, and there have been some computer model runs trying to bring a hurricane into Connecticut next weekend (one even brings in a category 2, which hasn't happened here since the 50s), while others pass it harmlessly out to sea. Needless to say, it is far too early to assume this, but as the peak of the hurricane season is coming up, it's not a bad idea to review your plans anyway. It all depends, essentially, on if a blocking pattern develops which could force the hurricane into a Sandy-ish track out and then back into Connecticut. While this would be highly unusual, it doesn't mean it's impossible and is certainly worth watching...

Besides the developing Cristobal, development in the Atlantic is unlikely the next 5 days.

In the Pacific- Tropical Storms Karina and Lowell are spinning around and pose no threat to land. The only interest there is whether Lowell becomes a hurricane (it has 70 mph wind). Also, Tropical Storm Marie is likely to form today or tomorrow, and become a strong hurricane near the Baja

Today in weather history- August 21, 2007- Hurricane Dean hits Belize as a category 5 hurricane, the first cat. 5 landfall since 1992 (Andrew). As hurricanes tend to weaken as they approach land as the land impedes on the circulation, cat 5 landfalls are exceedingly rare. In fact it's only happened in the United States 3 times in recorded history (The Keys in the early 30s, Camille, and Andrew).

Watch the tropics carefully the next few days. It's going to be close.