Good Saturday all-
This will be my last post until next weekend- I will be visiting Austin, TX from tomorrow to Friday for the 98th annual AMS meeting.
Today is going to be really, really cold. Highs will struggle to reach even ten degrees during the day today...ouch. In fact, if we end up falling short of double digits, this would be the coldest day in fourteen years. Seriously, bundle up and stay warm today. Thankfully, no precipitation is expected today or tomorrow, but some light snow or a wintry mix is likely Monday night, which could recoat the ground to the tune of an inch or two before we warm things up by the end of the week with highs in the 40s...finally. The next chance for a major snowstorm arrives on Saturday as a low pressure system develops on the trailing edge of a cold front- keep your eyes on it as I do in Texas, and should that become Winter Storm Clare, you'll know!
Looking back on Blizzard Brody, most of the state received between 8 and 12 inches of snow, but it was the jackpot location that was surprising as, instead of eastern Connecticut hitting it big like expected, the highest totals were found around the I-91 corridor. Staffordville hit the jackpot with 16" of snow but I came in a very close second with a snowfall of 15.5" or so in Naugatuck, which was about double what I was expecting to get...so I was delighted!
I hope all of you have a great week and I'll see you next weekend!!
SP
Saturday, January 6, 2018
Thursday, January 4, 2018
1/4- The Blizzard of '18
Good Thursday all-
A BLIZZARD WARNING is up for New London, New Haven, and Middlesex Counties. Everyone else is under a WINTER STORM WARNING.
So begins Blizzard Brody, and it'll really come down fast throughout the day today. I still like my statewide 7-14" forecast, but I think I may be a bit too low on the high end- an 8-16" may work a bit better especially in central areas, where the heaviest banding appears likely.
Snow has begun, and will be coming down heavily until around 4 PM, with lighter snow and flurries lasting well into the evening. As for school impacts, all schools in the state are CLOSED COMPLETELY today. Tomorrow is a much more difficult forecast. In areas where there are about 7"...at best a delay is likely, whereas areas where 14" occur, schools could well be CLOSED again tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see as this major storm hits our state. Be warm.
Also, a WIND CHILL WATCH is up for northern CT, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see that get expanded to the shoreline- wind chill values likely will be around -30 tomorrow night!
My flight to Texas for later tonight was cancelled, and I'm now leaving on Sunday. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this position!
A BLIZZARD WARNING is up for New London, New Haven, and Middlesex Counties. Everyone else is under a WINTER STORM WARNING.
So begins Blizzard Brody, and it'll really come down fast throughout the day today. I still like my statewide 7-14" forecast, but I think I may be a bit too low on the high end- an 8-16" may work a bit better especially in central areas, where the heaviest banding appears likely.
Snow has begun, and will be coming down heavily until around 4 PM, with lighter snow and flurries lasting well into the evening. As for school impacts, all schools in the state are CLOSED COMPLETELY today. Tomorrow is a much more difficult forecast. In areas where there are about 7"...at best a delay is likely, whereas areas where 14" occur, schools could well be CLOSED again tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see as this major storm hits our state. Be warm.
Also, a WIND CHILL WATCH is up for northern CT, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see that get expanded to the shoreline- wind chill values likely will be around -30 tomorrow night!
My flight to Texas for later tonight was cancelled, and I'm now leaving on Sunday. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this position!
Wednesday, January 3, 2018
1/3- Major Snowstorm Tomorrow
Good Wednesday all-
All of Connecticut is under a WINTER STORM WARNING. Do not be surprised, however, if these become BLIZZARD WARNINGS.
A major nor'easter is on the way to New England as a very strong area of low pressure will pass just barely east of the 40/70 benchmark. This is a highly complex forecast, but I am fairly confident in forecasting 7-14" of snow for the entire state, with the highest amounts in the eastern half, and the lowest amounts in extreme western areas. Also of concern will be the wind, which is likely to gust to 40mph inland and 50mph on the shore. This could lead to some isolated power outages, and that'll be miserable as we head into a weekend where overnight lows will be around minus 10 degrees. Yeah...ouch.
Due to slight track variations, the difference between who gets 7" and who gets 14" will not be known until tomorrow during the system. It's certainly possible someone gets a bit more than 14"- I wouldn't be surprised if the storm jackpot was around 20"- but I do not have high confidence that the area will be in Connecticut- in fact, I think it's unlikely (granted, not impossible!).
Stay safe & warm tonight. I'll update in the morning. If you get the chance to look at a satellite image tomorrow- DO IT. You will not be disappointed- this is a beautiful, powerful storm that shows exactly the beauty and strength that mother nature has.
All of Connecticut is under a WINTER STORM WARNING. Do not be surprised, however, if these become BLIZZARD WARNINGS.
A major nor'easter is on the way to New England as a very strong area of low pressure will pass just barely east of the 40/70 benchmark. This is a highly complex forecast, but I am fairly confident in forecasting 7-14" of snow for the entire state, with the highest amounts in the eastern half, and the lowest amounts in extreme western areas. Also of concern will be the wind, which is likely to gust to 40mph inland and 50mph on the shore. This could lead to some isolated power outages, and that'll be miserable as we head into a weekend where overnight lows will be around minus 10 degrees. Yeah...ouch.
Due to slight track variations, the difference between who gets 7" and who gets 14" will not be known until tomorrow during the system. It's certainly possible someone gets a bit more than 14"- I wouldn't be surprised if the storm jackpot was around 20"- but I do not have high confidence that the area will be in Connecticut- in fact, I think it's unlikely (granted, not impossible!).
Stay safe & warm tonight. I'll update in the morning. If you get the chance to look at a satellite image tomorrow- DO IT. You will not be disappointed- this is a beautiful, powerful storm that shows exactly the beauty and strength that mother nature has.
Monday, January 1, 2018
1/1/2018- Happy New Year...with snow
Good Monday all-
HAPPY 2018!
Well, this is quite a start isn't it...yet again, temperatures are near zero this morning, and in some cases slightly below that mark, and we are going to have freezing cold conditions throughout the day...and we'll do it all over again tonight, with temperatures around -5 overnight tonight. Highs today will likely be stuck in the mid-teens, but thankfully tomorrow should be quite a bit warmer.
We do have to watch Thursday very, very carefully. A coastal storm of likely historic proportions will develop along the east coast, and it could either be a direct hit or a narrow miss. A direct hit from this would be bad. I mean really, really, bad. You don't want it unless you are a die hard snow lover...trust me. Even a sideswipe, which is what many models are currently indicating, could be enough to name the storm Brody...we'll have to see. I'm attempting to fly out on Friday morning but...we'll have to see exactly what happens with this system as it tries to really mess up my plans :(
I'll definitely keep you posted on the Thursday threat as we move through the week and we get closer. We should have a much better idea what's going on by tomorrow morning at this time.
HAPPY 2018!
Well, this is quite a start isn't it...yet again, temperatures are near zero this morning, and in some cases slightly below that mark, and we are going to have freezing cold conditions throughout the day...and we'll do it all over again tonight, with temperatures around -5 overnight tonight. Highs today will likely be stuck in the mid-teens, but thankfully tomorrow should be quite a bit warmer.
We do have to watch Thursday very, very carefully. A coastal storm of likely historic proportions will develop along the east coast, and it could either be a direct hit or a narrow miss. A direct hit from this would be bad. I mean really, really, bad. You don't want it unless you are a die hard snow lover...trust me. Even a sideswipe, which is what many models are currently indicating, could be enough to name the storm Brody...we'll have to see. I'm attempting to fly out on Friday morning but...we'll have to see exactly what happens with this system as it tries to really mess up my plans :(
I'll definitely keep you posted on the Thursday threat as we move through the week and we get closer. We should have a much better idea what's going on by tomorrow morning at this time.
Sunday, December 31, 2017
12/31- With Horrifying Hurricanes, Brutal Blizzards, and Record Temperatures, 2017 Was One for the Ages
Good Sunday all-
Happy new year! We will be welcoming 2018 with a very close run on the models. We are right on the fringe right now of a snowstorm for this upcoming Thursday. In fact...the difference of about 100 miles will determine if we get nothing...a glancing blow...or a blizzard that only happens in our area about once every century or so. Right now, I favor choice 'B'- which would still be a major snowstorm for our area on the order of 8-16" (so imagine what choice 'C' is- trust me, you don't want to know). Regardless, the cold remains firmly in place and if you intend to visit Times Square tonight, BUNDLE UP- this will likely be the second coldest ball drop...ever recorded with temperatures in the high single digits. Youch! Stay warm!!! Now for a look back on the incredible, record breaking year that 2017 was for us in Connecticut and across the entire western Atlantic.
January was a month that featured well above average temperatures, and was surprisingly snow free, with the exception of Winter Storm Breanna, which dropped a general 5-8" of snow on the state on the 8th. This continued the recent trend of dry and relatively snow free January's, the third year in a row that one or fewer named storms occurred during the month. Little did we know the winter had just begun.
February was the tale of two months, with two significant snowstorms, but also 70 degree temperatures at the end of the month. For most, the most significant snowstorm of the winter was Blizzard Chris on the 9th, which was followed by Winter Storm Diana just three days later on the 12th. After that though, the temperatures swung in the extreme, with several days in the last two weeks of the month well into the 60s and even reaching the 70s on several occasions, leaving many to believe that winter was over, which proved to be extremely premature.
March was an exceptionally cold month, with temperatures nearly 6 degrees below average! To add insult to injury, March also featured well above average snowfall, with Blizzard Eugene on March 14 delivering 1-2ft of snow to the entire region. There was no true warmup at any time in the month, and at times it made you wonder if spring really was around the corner. In fact, for just the 4th time on record, March was actually colder than February!
April was decent, but not all that unusual. The most notable thing about the month is that the year and a half long drought finally came to an end with substantial rains falling through the month on several different occasions. Temperatures were roughly seasonable in a relatively unremarkable month
May certainly had its' ups (high temperatures in the 90s several times mid-month) and downs (several days with rain falling heavily all day). In the end, however, the most notable weather event of the month was the severe weather outbreak on the 31st, which featured large hail, picturesque shelf clouds, and a tornado warning for Fairfield/Litchfield County. Although no tornado was recorded, it still was quite the evening!
June was a tale of two extremes. The first two weeks were exceptionally cool, including one of the coldest June days on record with highs in the low 50s and lows generally in the low 40s with a few places even in the upper 30s(!) in places on the 6th. The second part, however, featured far more typical weather, with several days of thunderstorms and summery heat and humidity. The precipitation wound up very close to the average.
July was a pretty typical July here in Connecticut, with temperatures primarily fluctuating between 75 and 95, with very few days outside of those parameters. Two heat waves occurred during the month, which is not at all unusual. Severe weather was rather uncommon, though the microburst in Derby on July 13 did cause a fair amount of damage in southwestern New Haven county.
August was not overly noteworthy in Connecticut, with temperatures only slightly below average. The most notable fact regarding the month is that somehow there were only two 90 degree days in Hartford, which is exceptionally difficult to do in August. Precipitation was well below average for the month, coming up at a total of 2.66". Of course, August will be remembered most by the weather world for the disaster that Hurricane Harvey and its' subsequent extreme rains caused in Texas, leading to a long-thought unbreakable record falling, establishing itself as the costliest natural disaster in US history.
September belonged to the hurricanes, although we managed to dodge a few bullets locally. Two category 5 hurricanes formed in the month, marking the first time since 2007 a season has had multiple storms reach the highest intensity. To make matters worse, both of these storms (Irma and Maria) made landfalls at category 4 intensity, clobbering Florida and Puerto Rico. Both of these storms will be remembered for a very long time indeed, and surely will join Harvey on the retired name list. The other notable hurricane, Jose, made a very serious run at our area, even prompting Tropical Storm watches for a brief period before ultimately passing safely to the southeast of Cape Cod. Temperatures locally were far above normal, with an average of 78.4 degrees. The dryness also continued, with a rainfall deficit of over an inch, briefly returning parts of the state to drought conditions. This would be wiped clear, however, in that wild last week of October.
October was an extremely warm month, and it seemed like it would be mainly dry until the two major storms clobbered the region on the 24th and 29th, both dumping upwards of 5" of rain on our area and completely wiping out the drought, and causing an October rainfall total nearly double the average. The warmest October on record for many locations, including both Hartford and Bridgeport, ended with a bang to be sure! Most notably, however, the October 29th curse struck again, with a massive coastal storm with influence from the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe clobbering the region with winds gusting upwards of hurricane force across the state, doing a great deal of damage and causing nearly 200,000 power outages across the state, in some cases lasting for several days. Definitely one to remember!
November was dryer than normal for sure, but also much, much colder than normal. Overall, BDL finished the month with an average temperature of 42 degrees, which is two degrees below normal. There was 1.04" of precipitation, which is about 2" below normal as well for the month. The most notable part of the time period was the aforementioned cold, especially in the final two weeks of the month, which saw temperatures plunge into the teens at times. Most also experienced their first snow of the 2017-18 winter, although it was by no means substantial, with only a trace falling in Hartford. That would change in a big way for December, however.
Finally, December was the first truly wintry December in quite some time, and boy was it ever. Temperatures were far below average (exactly how far remains to be seen- I'll have final numbers tomorrow), and was extremely snowy as well. At my house in Naugatuck, we recieved 16" of snow for the month, which is only slightly less than half of the average annual snowfall. With more snow possible on Thursday (the current Euro proposes one to one and a half feet), this will only increase, and the pattern for January looks pretty good for snow, with the exception of the week from after Thursday until the following weekend or so (and even then, some snow certainly could fall). To put this in perspective, should 16" fall in the four months where it is realistic (Dec-Mar), we would get 64" of snow on the year, which is about 15" above the average annual snowfall for the region...and is close to an all time top 10 year. In general though, remember that our snowiest month of the year is actually February.
Wishing you a very, very happy 2018! May it bring peace, joy, and wonderful new memories to all the world.
Happy new year! We will be welcoming 2018 with a very close run on the models. We are right on the fringe right now of a snowstorm for this upcoming Thursday. In fact...the difference of about 100 miles will determine if we get nothing...a glancing blow...or a blizzard that only happens in our area about once every century or so. Right now, I favor choice 'B'- which would still be a major snowstorm for our area on the order of 8-16" (so imagine what choice 'C' is- trust me, you don't want to know). Regardless, the cold remains firmly in place and if you intend to visit Times Square tonight, BUNDLE UP- this will likely be the second coldest ball drop...ever recorded with temperatures in the high single digits. Youch! Stay warm!!! Now for a look back on the incredible, record breaking year that 2017 was for us in Connecticut and across the entire western Atlantic.
January was a month that featured well above average temperatures, and was surprisingly snow free, with the exception of Winter Storm Breanna, which dropped a general 5-8" of snow on the state on the 8th. This continued the recent trend of dry and relatively snow free January's, the third year in a row that one or fewer named storms occurred during the month. Little did we know the winter had just begun.
February was the tale of two months, with two significant snowstorms, but also 70 degree temperatures at the end of the month. For most, the most significant snowstorm of the winter was Blizzard Chris on the 9th, which was followed by Winter Storm Diana just three days later on the 12th. After that though, the temperatures swung in the extreme, with several days in the last two weeks of the month well into the 60s and even reaching the 70s on several occasions, leaving many to believe that winter was over, which proved to be extremely premature.
March was an exceptionally cold month, with temperatures nearly 6 degrees below average! To add insult to injury, March also featured well above average snowfall, with Blizzard Eugene on March 14 delivering 1-2ft of snow to the entire region. There was no true warmup at any time in the month, and at times it made you wonder if spring really was around the corner. In fact, for just the 4th time on record, March was actually colder than February!
April was decent, but not all that unusual. The most notable thing about the month is that the year and a half long drought finally came to an end with substantial rains falling through the month on several different occasions. Temperatures were roughly seasonable in a relatively unremarkable month
May certainly had its' ups (high temperatures in the 90s several times mid-month) and downs (several days with rain falling heavily all day). In the end, however, the most notable weather event of the month was the severe weather outbreak on the 31st, which featured large hail, picturesque shelf clouds, and a tornado warning for Fairfield/Litchfield County. Although no tornado was recorded, it still was quite the evening!
June was a tale of two extremes. The first two weeks were exceptionally cool, including one of the coldest June days on record with highs in the low 50s and lows generally in the low 40s with a few places even in the upper 30s(!) in places on the 6th. The second part, however, featured far more typical weather, with several days of thunderstorms and summery heat and humidity. The precipitation wound up very close to the average.
July was a pretty typical July here in Connecticut, with temperatures primarily fluctuating between 75 and 95, with very few days outside of those parameters. Two heat waves occurred during the month, which is not at all unusual. Severe weather was rather uncommon, though the microburst in Derby on July 13 did cause a fair amount of damage in southwestern New Haven county.
August was not overly noteworthy in Connecticut, with temperatures only slightly below average. The most notable fact regarding the month is that somehow there were only two 90 degree days in Hartford, which is exceptionally difficult to do in August. Precipitation was well below average for the month, coming up at a total of 2.66". Of course, August will be remembered most by the weather world for the disaster that Hurricane Harvey and its' subsequent extreme rains caused in Texas, leading to a long-thought unbreakable record falling, establishing itself as the costliest natural disaster in US history.
September belonged to the hurricanes, although we managed to dodge a few bullets locally. Two category 5 hurricanes formed in the month, marking the first time since 2007 a season has had multiple storms reach the highest intensity. To make matters worse, both of these storms (Irma and Maria) made landfalls at category 4 intensity, clobbering Florida and Puerto Rico. Both of these storms will be remembered for a very long time indeed, and surely will join Harvey on the retired name list. The other notable hurricane, Jose, made a very serious run at our area, even prompting Tropical Storm watches for a brief period before ultimately passing safely to the southeast of Cape Cod. Temperatures locally were far above normal, with an average of 78.4 degrees. The dryness also continued, with a rainfall deficit of over an inch, briefly returning parts of the state to drought conditions. This would be wiped clear, however, in that wild last week of October.
October was an extremely warm month, and it seemed like it would be mainly dry until the two major storms clobbered the region on the 24th and 29th, both dumping upwards of 5" of rain on our area and completely wiping out the drought, and causing an October rainfall total nearly double the average. The warmest October on record for many locations, including both Hartford and Bridgeport, ended with a bang to be sure! Most notably, however, the October 29th curse struck again, with a massive coastal storm with influence from the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe clobbering the region with winds gusting upwards of hurricane force across the state, doing a great deal of damage and causing nearly 200,000 power outages across the state, in some cases lasting for several days. Definitely one to remember!
November was dryer than normal for sure, but also much, much colder than normal. Overall, BDL finished the month with an average temperature of 42 degrees, which is two degrees below normal. There was 1.04" of precipitation, which is about 2" below normal as well for the month. The most notable part of the time period was the aforementioned cold, especially in the final two weeks of the month, which saw temperatures plunge into the teens at times. Most also experienced their first snow of the 2017-18 winter, although it was by no means substantial, with only a trace falling in Hartford. That would change in a big way for December, however.
Finally, December was the first truly wintry December in quite some time, and boy was it ever. Temperatures were far below average (exactly how far remains to be seen- I'll have final numbers tomorrow), and was extremely snowy as well. At my house in Naugatuck, we recieved 16" of snow for the month, which is only slightly less than half of the average annual snowfall. With more snow possible on Thursday (the current Euro proposes one to one and a half feet), this will only increase, and the pattern for January looks pretty good for snow, with the exception of the week from after Thursday until the following weekend or so (and even then, some snow certainly could fall). To put this in perspective, should 16" fall in the four months where it is realistic (Dec-Mar), we would get 64" of snow on the year, which is about 15" above the average annual snowfall for the region...and is close to an all time top 10 year. In general though, remember that our snowiest month of the year is actually February.
Wishing you a very, very happy 2018! May it bring peace, joy, and wonderful new memories to all the world.
Wednesday, December 27, 2017
12/27- One of the Coldest Runs in Recorded History on the Way
Good Wednesday all-
I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and was able to enjoy the time spent with friends and family.
Among the many stories of the next week or so, one that will take the most time to talk about is the cold weather. In fact, the potential exists for this to be the coldest ten day stretch ever recorded at BDL, as we may not see temperatures hit 20 degrees not just today...but until well into 2018. Yak! Well, what can you do except shake your head and keep the heat on and stay warm. For what it's worth, the overnight lows look to feature many nights with temperatures close to or even below zero degrees. Yeah, so not good. Bundle up this week and next! Another storm threat appears to lie around Friday 1/5. Which, go figure, I have a flight on that day to Austin, TX to attend the meteorology conference there from the 8th to the 11th...so that's a high-risk forecast for me personally too!
There also remains a snow threat for the morning of New Year's Eve. Of our two major models, one has consistently suggested a major snowstorm for New England (the Euro) while another (the GFS) has no storm anywhere within 1000 miles. The Canadian model is closer to the Euro, forecasting a general 4 to 8" of snow lasting from about 9 PM on Saturday to 3 PM on NYE. Lovely. That's extremely unhelpful to say the least, so we have to watch this very closely over the next few days as we begin to get a better picture.
I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and was able to enjoy the time spent with friends and family.
Among the many stories of the next week or so, one that will take the most time to talk about is the cold weather. In fact, the potential exists for this to be the coldest ten day stretch ever recorded at BDL, as we may not see temperatures hit 20 degrees not just today...but until well into 2018. Yak! Well, what can you do except shake your head and keep the heat on and stay warm. For what it's worth, the overnight lows look to feature many nights with temperatures close to or even below zero degrees. Yeah, so not good. Bundle up this week and next! Another storm threat appears to lie around Friday 1/5. Which, go figure, I have a flight on that day to Austin, TX to attend the meteorology conference there from the 8th to the 11th...so that's a high-risk forecast for me personally too!
There also remains a snow threat for the morning of New Year's Eve. Of our two major models, one has consistently suggested a major snowstorm for New England (the Euro) while another (the GFS) has no storm anywhere within 1000 miles. The Canadian model is closer to the Euro, forecasting a general 4 to 8" of snow lasting from about 9 PM on Saturday to 3 PM on NYE. Lovely. That's extremely unhelpful to say the least, so we have to watch this very closely over the next few days as we begin to get a better picture.
Monday, December 25, 2017
12/25- Gee, thanks Computer
Greetings-
I'm baack- sorry it took so long, but this time it wasn't nmy fault- my computer underwent a fatal hard drive error about two weeks ago and thus I have been unable to update.
That said, I'm back! And I'm glad to be- I just got a new, fancy laptop for Christmas and I'm loving it!
Now, the weather is very festive, with a moderate amount of snow having fallen across most of Connecticut this morning. In Naugatuck, it seems I have picked up roughly 3", which brings my annual snowfall up to 15"- about one third of the average annual snowfall in the last two weeks, beginning with Winter Storm Ali dropping 7" on me on December 10. Since then, a series of 2 or 3" snowfalls has improved my totals up dramatically.
Now, onto the more important part of the weather- a frigid (and I mean frigid) week ahead, featuring temperatures of 15 or so for highs and near to possibly sub-zero lows by the middle of the week. The next chance for snow is next weekend, and the threat appears to be pretty substantial, so we certainly have to keep a close eye on it as we approach new year's eve. For what it's worth, January looks to feature below average temperatures with at least average amounts of snowfall.
I wish everyone the very merriest of Christmases and hope you enjoy the last week of 2017!
I'm baack- sorry it took so long, but this time it wasn't nmy fault- my computer underwent a fatal hard drive error about two weeks ago and thus I have been unable to update.
That said, I'm back! And I'm glad to be- I just got a new, fancy laptop for Christmas and I'm loving it!
Now, the weather is very festive, with a moderate amount of snow having fallen across most of Connecticut this morning. In Naugatuck, it seems I have picked up roughly 3", which brings my annual snowfall up to 15"- about one third of the average annual snowfall in the last two weeks, beginning with Winter Storm Ali dropping 7" on me on December 10. Since then, a series of 2 or 3" snowfalls has improved my totals up dramatically.
Now, onto the more important part of the weather- a frigid (and I mean frigid) week ahead, featuring temperatures of 15 or so for highs and near to possibly sub-zero lows by the middle of the week. The next chance for snow is next weekend, and the threat appears to be pretty substantial, so we certainly have to keep a close eye on it as we approach new year's eve. For what it's worth, January looks to feature below average temperatures with at least average amounts of snowfall.
I wish everyone the very merriest of Christmases and hope you enjoy the last week of 2017!
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