Good Wednesday all-
A couple of interesting weather events are on the way here in Connecticut, with two winter events of note taking place in the next five days.
The first is Friday, as a quick moving coastal low brushes by our area and drops a light accumulating snow during the early morning hours. At the moment, inland areas can expect a general storm total of 2-4" inland, and 1-3" on the shoreline. Someone in the northwest hills has an outside chance of getting 6", but that total is unlikely for most of the state as it should change over to rain during the early morning hours (Around 8 AM). That said, considering the timing, many schools will be forced to delay away from the immediate shoreline. Some more cautious districts...or those in the hills, may even close completely if enough snow falls during that time.
The second, Saturday night into Sunday, has the *potential* to be much, much more significant as a MASSIVE storm is set to develop over our region. The track here means everything, and all events from mostly rain to two feet of snow remains in play. Right now, it looks like something in between- say 8-12" of snow followed by half an inch of ice followed by another 1-3" of snow...ouch. Any further south with the path would yield a snowstorm with multiple feet, and any further west/north would yield more ice and less snow. Let's just wait and see- I'll keep you posted as we approach the event that could well be Winter Storm Yoshi.
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Monday, January 7, 2019
1/6- Slippery Commute Likely
Good evening everyone-
*A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* is up for Litchfield and interior Fairfield Counties*
Having said that, the conditions those two areas experience tonight will really be felt statewide as a minor area of low pressure passes through SNE from west to east. While no true accumulation is expected (someone that gets very unlucky in the hills could get 1"). That said, the timing of this, as well as an eventual changeover, is what makes this tricky- we should see the snow begin to mix and change to rain around 6 AM across the shoreline and a bit later inland. Thus, it is entirely possible that some schools end up delaying tomorrow, especially since very few have actually had any weather related problems so far in what has been a rather quiet winter.
There's not really a point in making an accumulation map, and as long as you take a bit of extra time on your morning ride tomorrow you'll have no problem.
Sunday has the potential to be a more significant issue, but that's a story for another time, as details as one would expect are iffy considering we are 6 days out still.
So ends the first week of 2019. That flew- the year is now 1/52nd over :P
*A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* is up for Litchfield and interior Fairfield Counties*
Having said that, the conditions those two areas experience tonight will really be felt statewide as a minor area of low pressure passes through SNE from west to east. While no true accumulation is expected (someone that gets very unlucky in the hills could get 1"). That said, the timing of this, as well as an eventual changeover, is what makes this tricky- we should see the snow begin to mix and change to rain around 6 AM across the shoreline and a bit later inland. Thus, it is entirely possible that some schools end up delaying tomorrow, especially since very few have actually had any weather related problems so far in what has been a rather quiet winter.
There's not really a point in making an accumulation map, and as long as you take a bit of extra time on your morning ride tomorrow you'll have no problem.
Sunday has the potential to be a more significant issue, but that's a story for another time, as details as one would expect are iffy considering we are 6 days out still.
So ends the first week of 2019. That flew- the year is now 1/52nd over :P
Saturday, January 5, 2019
1/5/19- It's Been Forever
Greetings to everyone-
First off, there are no words that I can use to explain my absence for ten months- frankly, it's been one thing after another after another, and many of them have been good- but the bottom line is that I should never have been gone for that long. It will not happen again, and I have no way to say sorry other than to give my word that I will continue to blog for the future. Perhaps not every day like it once was, but at minimum several times a week- especially if a major storm is on the horizon.
In any case, over the last year, a tornado hit my house and did serious damage on May 15, we experienced the 5th wettest year on record, and watched as Hurricanes Florence and Michael devastated areas south of us. After an early snowstorm on November 15th (the 3rd earliest 6" snowfall on record), we've largely had a quiet winter, and with the pattern we have at this moment, it looks like that should mostly continue for another week or so. Some icing is certainly possible Monday night into Tuesday, which could snarl up some commutes Tuesday morning for sure. Today, you can expect it to rain on and off all day! Ugh. Generally 0.5" of rain is expected, and although not nearly as bad as it looked like it would be a few days ago, a 37 degree rain is downright nasty for sure! Tomorrow we're looking at temperatures in the mid-40s, then a generally cool and seasonable week should follow with any issues being confined to the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.
For more information, feel free to follow me on twitter at @stevectweather!
Again, my deepest apologies for not updating for so, so long. Hope you all had a great holiday season!
Happy 2019- see you real soon!
First off, there are no words that I can use to explain my absence for ten months- frankly, it's been one thing after another after another, and many of them have been good- but the bottom line is that I should never have been gone for that long. It will not happen again, and I have no way to say sorry other than to give my word that I will continue to blog for the future. Perhaps not every day like it once was, but at minimum several times a week- especially if a major storm is on the horizon.
In any case, over the last year, a tornado hit my house and did serious damage on May 15, we experienced the 5th wettest year on record, and watched as Hurricanes Florence and Michael devastated areas south of us. After an early snowstorm on November 15th (the 3rd earliest 6" snowfall on record), we've largely had a quiet winter, and with the pattern we have at this moment, it looks like that should mostly continue for another week or so. Some icing is certainly possible Monday night into Tuesday, which could snarl up some commutes Tuesday morning for sure. Today, you can expect it to rain on and off all day! Ugh. Generally 0.5" of rain is expected, and although not nearly as bad as it looked like it would be a few days ago, a 37 degree rain is downright nasty for sure! Tomorrow we're looking at temperatures in the mid-40s, then a generally cool and seasonable week should follow with any issues being confined to the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.
For more information, feel free to follow me on twitter at @stevectweather!
Again, my deepest apologies for not updating for so, so long. Hope you all had a great holiday season!
Happy 2019- see you real soon!
Thursday, March 22, 2018
3/22- I Don't Dream of Genny- Epic Fail
Good Thursday all-
I want to say, on behalf of all the meteorologists in Connecticut, sorry! This was an unusually difficult storm to forecast because of the presence of dry air. What happened yesterday was that the dry air line, which was forecasted by most models to be in Hartford, ended up in New Haven. The end result is that Long Island got the snow we were expecting, whilst we got the dreaded dry area and about half of my advertised minimum snowfall.
This is something that will teach me a lesson, as all busts are. This one, however, is more notable in the sense that it was a high impact forecast that occurred during the middle of the week and the school closures and early dismissals we had yesterday wound up being wholly unnecessary. That is something that we're always trying to improve on, and even if we don't get another chance to do it this winter, we'll be talking about heavy snow potential again in just eight short months- and more experience will be in the books for us.
One last note- I have seen many AWFUL posts directed towards our local TV meteorologists insulting them ruthlessly. I beg you- please refrain from doing that. We all do what we can, and I hope that people realize this is a much more difficult job than they think it is.
All the best.
I want to say, on behalf of all the meteorologists in Connecticut, sorry! This was an unusually difficult storm to forecast because of the presence of dry air. What happened yesterday was that the dry air line, which was forecasted by most models to be in Hartford, ended up in New Haven. The end result is that Long Island got the snow we were expecting, whilst we got the dreaded dry area and about half of my advertised minimum snowfall.
This is something that will teach me a lesson, as all busts are. This one, however, is more notable in the sense that it was a high impact forecast that occurred during the middle of the week and the school closures and early dismissals we had yesterday wound up being wholly unnecessary. That is something that we're always trying to improve on, and even if we don't get another chance to do it this winter, we'll be talking about heavy snow potential again in just eight short months- and more experience will be in the books for us.
One last note- I have seen many AWFUL posts directed towards our local TV meteorologists insulting them ruthlessly. I beg you- please refrain from doing that. We all do what we can, and I hope that people realize this is a much more difficult job than they think it is.
All the best.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
3/14- Pi isn't Snowy, but Today is
Good Wednesday all-
Happy hump day!
There is a risk of snow this afternoon, I'm afraid- some squalls could drop 1-3" of snow in parts of Connecticut this afternoon. Timing of this would be around 4-5PM, though the exact timing will be vaired depending on exactly what squall you get into, etc. through the afternoon. On the heels of Winter Storm Ferris though, this will feel like nothing....so at least there is that. Unfortunately, there remain strong signs of a nor'easter for the middle of next week- we have to watch that closely. Otherwise the rest of the week looks dry with below average temperatures, with the exception of Sunday, when we will be near if not a bit above 50 degrees. Spring *is* coming, it's just taking a while to get here.
Happy hump day!
There is a risk of snow this afternoon, I'm afraid- some squalls could drop 1-3" of snow in parts of Connecticut this afternoon. Timing of this would be around 4-5PM, though the exact timing will be vaired depending on exactly what squall you get into, etc. through the afternoon. On the heels of Winter Storm Ferris though, this will feel like nothing....so at least there is that. Unfortunately, there remain strong signs of a nor'easter for the middle of next week- we have to watch that closely. Otherwise the rest of the week looks dry with below average temperatures, with the exception of Sunday, when we will be near if not a bit above 50 degrees. Spring *is* coming, it's just taking a while to get here.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Well, that was Interesting
Greetings-
Oh my, well that was an interesting forecast today. Essentially, we had two bands that dropped heavy amounts of snow. One was, as expected, over the eastern sections of our state, and dropped about two feet of snow. The other set up shop essentially along and west of the Rt. 8 corridor in western Connecticut. In other areas, very little in the way of accumulation occurred. At my house in Naugatuck, I picked up between ten and twelve inches, as I was under the western band, but my grandmother in Branford got only 3", and New Haven (literally a 10 minute drive to my south) picked up a whopping total of...nothing. Yeesh. That this happened is not a surprise, but the placement of the western band was to some degree and yielded much higher totals than expected in western sections, while causing a forecast bust for many in the central area. Go figure.
Surely, after three massive nor'easter hits, this is over now right?...Sadly, no, there are several more threats for coastal storms and major snowfalls, the next of which is Tuesday of next week.
It is worth noting that today's snow has pushed my backyard's seasonal snowfall total over 70". That makes this winter the second snowiest of my lifetime, trailing only 2010-11, which produced about 85". Looking at the forecast for the next few weeks...it honestly is not impossible to get there. I'll be watching. Thankfully, unless the weather goes insane over the next few weeks, the all-time record of 115.2" is almost undoubtedly safe for another winter (Another 45" of snow seems more than a bit difficult). Additionally, this is only the second time in the last 22 years that we have used the 'F' name for a storm. The other, 2014-15, culminated with Winter Storm Gavin. The next name on the list is Genny...and we'll see if it comes Tuesday because there is a legitimate shot.
Oh my, well that was an interesting forecast today. Essentially, we had two bands that dropped heavy amounts of snow. One was, as expected, over the eastern sections of our state, and dropped about two feet of snow. The other set up shop essentially along and west of the Rt. 8 corridor in western Connecticut. In other areas, very little in the way of accumulation occurred. At my house in Naugatuck, I picked up between ten and twelve inches, as I was under the western band, but my grandmother in Branford got only 3", and New Haven (literally a 10 minute drive to my south) picked up a whopping total of...nothing. Yeesh. That this happened is not a surprise, but the placement of the western band was to some degree and yielded much higher totals than expected in western sections, while causing a forecast bust for many in the central area. Go figure.
Surely, after three massive nor'easter hits, this is over now right?...Sadly, no, there are several more threats for coastal storms and major snowfalls, the next of which is Tuesday of next week.
It is worth noting that today's snow has pushed my backyard's seasonal snowfall total over 70". That makes this winter the second snowiest of my lifetime, trailing only 2010-11, which produced about 85". Looking at the forecast for the next few weeks...it honestly is not impossible to get there. I'll be watching. Thankfully, unless the weather goes insane over the next few weeks, the all-time record of 115.2" is almost undoubtedly safe for another winter (Another 45" of snow seems more than a bit difficult). Additionally, this is only the second time in the last 22 years that we have used the 'F' name for a storm. The other, 2014-15, culminated with Winter Storm Gavin. The next name on the list is Genny...and we'll see if it comes Tuesday because there is a legitimate shot.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
3.7- Winter Storm Elsa/Quinn Clobbers CT
Good Wednesday all-
As you know, the entire state is under a WINTER STORM WARNING...except for far southeastern areas.
Well, I apologize for not updating on this one before this, but things like school take up a lot more time now than they have in the past.
Having said that, this looks like the most significant snowstorm for much of our region since the Great Blizzard of 2013. Overall, expect ten to twenty inches of accumulation over the entire state, with locally as much as two feet possible. The snow will be heavy as a general rule, but probably will be around 10:1 ratios which is roughly average for our region. The main part of the snow will be between 2PM and 1AM, with snow accumulating at times as much as 4"/hr, strong winds, and thundersnow! We are also watching Monday closely for the risk of another very substantial snowstorm, but we'll have to see how exactly that plays out.
By the way, if you're interested in more weather, you can find me on the youtube channel "WCSU meteorology" Tuesday's at 4PM...and the channel "CTV192" on Thursday mornings at 11AM or so.
Stay warm & safe today!
As you know, the entire state is under a WINTER STORM WARNING...except for far southeastern areas.
Well, I apologize for not updating on this one before this, but things like school take up a lot more time now than they have in the past.
Having said that, this looks like the most significant snowstorm for much of our region since the Great Blizzard of 2013. Overall, expect ten to twenty inches of accumulation over the entire state, with locally as much as two feet possible. The snow will be heavy as a general rule, but probably will be around 10:1 ratios which is roughly average for our region. The main part of the snow will be between 2PM and 1AM, with snow accumulating at times as much as 4"/hr, strong winds, and thundersnow! We are also watching Monday closely for the risk of another very substantial snowstorm, but we'll have to see how exactly that plays out.
By the way, if you're interested in more weather, you can find me on the youtube channel "WCSU meteorology" Tuesday's at 4PM...and the channel "CTV192" on Thursday mornings at 11AM or so.
Stay warm & safe today!
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