2/27- Nice weekend, complex setup next week

HAPPY FRIDAY- WE MADE IT!

First off, it's time for the "Why did I get the forecast wrong yesterday?" analysis. Essentially, what happened is that a weak secondary low formed around Trenton, and allowed a band of very heavy snow to set up shop yesterday morning on a line from about Danbury, along I-84 to Hamden and Wallingford. Some people in that area experienced near whiteout conditions for about 2 hours, and may have received as much as 2-3" of snow. I had about 2" in Wallingford. I almost got stranded on 84 it was so bad...what can you do. Hopefully next week I'll be more accurate, but I've got my work cut out for me. There's 3 things that I'm watching very closely.

#1- Monday morning- A moderate snowfall is all but certain in this time period as models have been in agreement for several days on this. A preliminary estimate of 3-6" seems reasonable, but that is almost certainly not going to be my final forecast. It wouldn't shock me at all if it ended up being 2-4" or 4-8" or anything in between. Regardless, expect an impactful snow event on Monday morning, along with school closings (yes, ANOTHER Monday!)

#2- Wednesday- This is when it really gets interesting. A large storm is currently modeled to track through Lake Michigan...which would mean a burst of 2-5 or 3-6" of snow...before it changes to 1-2" of rain. That would be a disaster for everyone with all the snow we have on our roofs at the moment. The thing to watch, however, is whether it can go far enough east to redevelop off the coast. If it succeeeds, then more frozen precip would be possible, but that's about a 25% chance at the moment.

#3- Thursday- Immediately following that, some models are indicating the development of a coastal low that could produce another round of mixed precipitation. This is probably going to be the least impactful of the three, but still, keep it in the back of your mind today.

I'll have more on all 3 threats tomorrow.

2/25- Cold still, some snow coming?

Good Wednesday all-

It's still cold, but not nearly as cold as it was yesterday. At least today we're in the positive single digits instead of the negative, and we dodged a coastal storm to our east today (though the cape will probably get 2-5" of snow today), and shall do so again on Friday. Granted, the primary reason for this is that it's going to be really cold, which means that we now will almost undoubtedly break the record for the all-time coldest month, which is remarkable considering that record keeping began in 1905! In any case, the next storm appears to be a moderate snowfall Sunday night and Monday morning, and something on the lines of 3-6" or 4-8" seems reasonable. Tuesday, another storm moves through, and it's a huge one, but the models currently have it as an inside runner bringing primarily rain. They're trending further east at the moment, though, and so I don't buy a rainstorm yet. Let's just see what happens. It'll be just fine today- sunny and low 30s- so enjoy it!

Today in weather history- February 25, 1914- Society Hill, SC, somehow gets dumped by a whopping 18" of snow, which is the all-time record for snowfall in a single storm in South Carolina.

2/24- Cold now, snow soon?

Good Tuesday all-

Well, it's absolutely frigid out there, generally between 0 and -15 this morning, but it's going to get slightly better as temps moderate to well, probably just the teens today, but the 20s are likely tomorrow. Just so you know, though, we should be around 40 this time of year, so this is still completely ridiculous! To make matters worse, an accumulating snow, perhaps a significant one, is likely now on either Sunday or Monday, so that bears watching, but we are way too far out for any details on that possibility, other than that models are in agreement that there will be at least some snow in that timeframe. Otherwise, it'll be 20s for highs, single digits for lows, and generally frigid weather, though light snow is possible tonight, and someone east of our region (New London/Windham county) could pick up an inch or two of snow.

Today in weather history- February 24, 2015- BDL breaks their record low for today with a temperature of -6, beating out -4 as the record. Not overly impressive, until you consider that the record was set in 1907, 108 years ago! Yikes!

2/21- More snow? Really?

Good Saturday all-

Everyone in Connecticut is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for 2-5" of snow. This is likely too low of a forecast from NOAA. I'm looking at the newest computer model runs, and I have to say I really don't get how people are saying it's going to be a mix at the end because, to be honest, I think that any mixing will be extremely late, and most of (if not all of) the precip will have already fallen. As a result, I'll go with a slightly more aggressive 3-7" of snow...with the least in New London county...and the most pretty much everywhere else. If it stays all snow for the duration, most of Connecticut should pick up around 5" from this. Expect snow to start falling around 3 this afternoon, and it will come down heavy at times and really make for dangerous travel late this afternoon. I'd recommend you cancel your evening plans tonight as you'll likely get snowed in. Regardless of that, it looks like we may actually get a full week in for a change without a huge snowstorm (though there's going to be another pesky 2-4" event on Tuesday probably). Remarkably, since this hasn't been named, this is now the longest we've gone without a named storm since January 23- one week!

Enjoy the snow today and tonight...let's see how much we get!

2/19- STORM WATCH- Did you really think it would rain?

Good Thursday all-

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY has been issued from midnight tonight until noon tomorrow for everyone in Connecticut. It certainly is warranted, as record-breaking cold is likely both tonight and tomorrow night, when temps could approach or exceed -10 in parts of Connecticut, especially north. The storm for the weekend just got a lot more interesting overnight tonight with the model runs. The models are showing a storm system that is much weaker than before...which ordinarily would be good, however...it allows the cold air near the surface to win out...and would lead to a primarily snow result, perhaps mixed with some sleet/freezing rain, but not plain rain. If this were to play out, we're looking at perhaps a 7-14" snowfall if everything played out right, but I'm not going to forecast that yet- rather, that's the worst case scenario (or best case- depending on how you feel)- that is realistic...which it certainly is...though I'd say a 4-8" snowfall mixed with sleet is probably the most likely option at this time.

The early part of next week looks dry, but another major snowstorm is possible next Wednesday.

The next name on WFSB's name list is Gavin. It's very possible Sunday's storm is going to get this name.

The model runs this afternoon are huge, since the storm is only about 50 hours away. Let's see what they do.

Today in weather history- February 19, 1979- In the early stages of computer models, surprises happen. That's exactly what happened here, as a forecast for sunny skies turned into a monster nor'easter that dumped 2 feet of snow in Delaware and massive amounts through the mid-Atlantic and northeast. This has happened a few times in recent years too (I can remember a day in 2010 when we were expecting 2-3" and got 13"), but is increasingly rare as technology advances.

2/18- Another weekend storm

Good Wednesday all-

Well, at least today looks fine, if not extremely cold. Highs today should be in the high teens/low 20s range, with increasing clouds through the day. Unfortunately, those clouds introduce a light but accumulating snow overnight tonight and perfectly during the morning commute tomorrow. Some of the unluckier areas could get as much as 2", so it could cause a few schools to delay tomorrow. There is a small chance that some would close, but I doubt it, quite honestly, because it should be easy to remove. If you have plans on Sunday, though, they're in big trouble as a major storm moves through...but again it's a tough forecast in many ways. Unfortunately, at the moment, it looks like mostly rain, not freezing rain, but actually regular rain. Let's hope not, because an inch of rain on the deep snowpack we currently have could be an absolute disaster for roofs! After that, the early part of next week looks good, the mid part...not so much as another nor'easter takes aim.

Today in weather history- February 18, 1959- A snowstorm that lasted 5 days continues in Mt. Shasta, CA (the snowiest place in North America). That in itself is not too rare but this is- the storm total ends up at one hundred eighty-nine inches of snow, or fifteen feet, 9 inches. This ends up as the single biggest snowfall in the history of North America.

2/15- Blizzard misses east...some snow midweek

Good Sunday all-

A WIND CHILL WARNING has been issued for everyone except the immediate shoreline for the first time in recent memory, a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the southern counties and Litchfield County, and a WINTER STORM WARNING remains for Hartford, Tolland, and Windham counties. The big stories today is that the Norlun trough missed us to the south- I was concerned about that last night at about 10- leaving many of us with less snow than predicted. My apologies, but this storm was probably the single hardest storm to forecast in the last five years. I went to bed last night unsure if I'd wake up to nothing or 8". In any event, what's done is done, and what happens tonight is now far more concerning than what's left of Blizzard Faith. The temperature will drop to about -8, which itself is bad, but the wind will be positively howling out of the north at 10-20mph. That means that the wind chill will approach -30 tomorrow morning. That's insanely hard to do here in Connecticut, but it's happening, so be prepared. In fact, it's so extreme that I think schools would close if it wasn't a federal holiday anyway. The storm threat midweek appears to  have been delayed 24hrs and now appears to be primarily Wednesday night and Thursday, so therefore we're too far out for any accumulation prediction, but it looks minor at the current time. Next Sunday does not look minor, however...that's worth watching.

Enjoy your day!