First off, it's time for the "Why did I get the forecast wrong yesterday?" analysis. Essentially, what happened is that a weak secondary low formed around Trenton, and allowed a band of very heavy snow to set up shop yesterday morning on a line from about Danbury, along I-84 to Hamden and Wallingford. Some people in that area experienced near whiteout conditions for about 2 hours, and may have received as much as 2-3" of snow. I had about 2" in Wallingford. I almost got stranded on 84 it was so bad...what can you do. Hopefully next week I'll be more accurate, but I've got my work cut out for me. There's 3 things that I'm watching very closely.
#1- Monday morning- A moderate snowfall is all but certain in this time period as models have been in agreement for several days on this. A preliminary estimate of 3-6" seems reasonable, but that is almost certainly not going to be my final forecast. It wouldn't shock me at all if it ended up being 2-4" or 4-8" or anything in between. Regardless, expect an impactful snow event on Monday morning, along with school closings (yes, ANOTHER Monday!)
#2- Wednesday- This is when it really gets interesting. A large storm is currently modeled to track through Lake Michigan...which would mean a burst of 2-5 or 3-6" of snow...before it changes to 1-2" of rain. That would be a disaster for everyone with all the snow we have on our roofs at the moment. The thing to watch, however, is whether it can go far enough east to redevelop off the coast. If it succeeeds, then more frozen precip would be possible, but that's about a 25% chance at the moment.
#3- Thursday- Immediately following that, some models are indicating the development of a coastal low that could produce another round of mixed precipitation. This is probably going to be the least impactful of the three, but still, keep it in the back of your mind today.
I'll have more on all 3 threats tomorrow.
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