Saturday, May 31, 2014

5/31- Say goodbye to May with avg. temps, some rain

Good Saturday all!

A very average day for late May is coming- temps in the 70s and some scattered showers and storms are likely this afternoon. Beyond that, I would be mostly concerned about Tuesday evening, since that could well feature showers and storms as well. Otherwise, the upcoming week looks quiet with temps near average, generally ranging from the low 70s to the mid 80s, depending on the day. Not too much else to talk about, so I leave it here!

In the Pacific- A tropical low a few hundred miles off the south coast of Mexico is likely to become Tropical Storm Boris later this week as conditions are highly favorable for development.

Tomorrow is the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and updates will begin then!

Today in weather history- May 31, 1889- A dam at Johnston, PA breaks after 10 inches of rain in 36 hours, and it causes an entire lake to enter the river, which instantly floods the city and kills 2,200 people. This is one of the biggest weather disasters in recorded history in the United States.

Friday, May 30, 2014

5/30- Some storms today

Good Friday all- HAPPY WEEKEND!

But don't expect today to be totally dry- some thunderstorms are likely later this afternoon, some of which could be borderline severe and contain small hail. Despite this, temps will be just fine today- mid 60s to low 70s. Not much else is going to happen over the weekend though- sure there will be scattered storms tomorrow afternoon, but the rest looks very pleasant though Sunday is definitely the better of the two days. The storm next week no longer appears to be of tropical origin, but I still think quite the soaker is coming next Friday or so. Finally, I would be remiss to not say congratulations to the 2014 NHL Eastern Conference Champion NY Rangers- bring home the cup!


In the Pacific- Amanda dissipated yesterday into a remnant low, but a new area of interest could develop off the Mexican coast this weekend, which has a 50-50 chance of becoming Tropical Storm Boris in the next 5 days.

Today in weather history- May 30, 1948- Vanport, Oregon becomes a ghost town after a dike along the Columbia River breaks and floods the entire city without warning in two hours, drowning 25 people

Thursday, May 29, 2014

5/29- Tropical threat decreasing, but rain is coming

Good Thursday all!

An average day is on the way today, albeit a bit chilly. Mostly sunny skies are likely, but I doubt that temps reach the 70s on the shoreline and possibly even inland, so it will be another rather chilly day. I do not expect storms today, but I do tomorrow as a cold front moves through (don't worry, it's not particularly strong, so no sub-freezing temps or anything like that!), followed by some more showers on Saturday, and it appears Sunday is the better of the weekend days before some rain returns next week.

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Amanda is dissipating, but what an incredible storm for May. There is no better way to start the season than with a 155 mph cat 4, and I hope for many more of these in both basins as time progresses!

With regards to the Atlantic tropical storm trying to form- I think it will succeed, but the threat on New England appears to be decreasing for the time being.

Today in weather history- May 29, 1989- Great Falls, Montana records 1 foot of snow, pushing the season total to a record 117.4". Interestingly, despite that region typically getting far more snow than Southern New England, BDL's record is 112.3" set in 1995-1996. It is not that much of a difference! Undoubtedly, though, Great Falls has more winters in the 90" range or so than BDL (2010-11 is the second snowiest winter with around 81" in CT), but it still is fun to look at just how remarkable that winter was!

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

5/29- Far cooler today, but is tropical trouble brewing?

Good Wednesday all!


Today is going to be much, much, much cooler than normal...as I expect temps to get stuck in the 50s today!! Unfortunately, the price of the cooldown was incredibly strong storms...among the worst in recent memory in Connecticut! I am not trying to make you jealous, but three school districts (New Milford and Regions 12 and 15) are CLOSED today, and someone was electrocuted in their car! Yikes!!! Moving forward, no real change from yesterday, Friday night still looks messy. Late next week and early the following week, however, we must keep our eye on a Tropical Storm trying to form in the gulf and then ride up the coast to Connecticut, and it may succeed...we shall see! Far too far off for exact details still- I may not be able to talk more specifically for another week or more!

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Amanda is dissipating Southwest of Baja California and there is no threat to land from this system.

Today in weather history- May 28, 2003- Palm Springs, California ties it's May record high of...116! degrees. Thankfully, that is almost impossible to achieve here in Southern New England...I think an upper limit to our temperatures is about 105.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

5/27- Storms today likely

Good Tuesday everyone- I hope you had a great Memorial Day weekend!

Today is going to be very interesting. A backdoor cold front moves through the region today, and with it comes the chance of severe storms. Timing is everything today, a bit late and we get very little activity, whereas a late afternoon timing presents the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. I would be, at the moment inclined to believe somewhere in between with scattered severe storms. I am, however, watching the situation closely! Beyond today, temps moderate and we don't get to 70 until Friday, when more storms are likely.

In the Pacific...Major Hurricane Amanda nearly reached category 5 intensity over the weekend (it missed by one mile per hour). Instead, it is now a 125 mph hurricane moving northeast. As it weakens, it is likely to dump rain in the Southwestern US, which they much need.

Today in weather history- May 27, 1896- A nightmare feared by many today last occurs as a huge tornado hits downtown St. Louis and kills 306 people. If a similar tornado occurred today, the death toll would likely be much, much higher.

Saturday, May 24, 2014

5/24- Messy today and tomorrow, PERFECT memorial day!

Good Saturday all!

The long holiday weekend today begins with some rain today as the stubborn low that gave us as much as four inches of rain yesterday sits and spins over us, and while I don't believe it will be as horrid as last night, do expect at least some rain through the day today and tomorrow. By Monday, though, the storm clears and we will have a perfect day for Memorial Day with temps in the mid-80s and bright sunshine before severe storms threaten Tuesday, knocking the temps down for the rest of the week. More showers are possible Friday.

In the Pacific...Tropical Depression 1-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Amanda yesterday morning and has been rapidly intensifying ever since. Now, it is very near hurricane intensity, which it will likely achieve this afternoon before it drifts north. Eventually, the remnants of the system could effect Baja California and the Southwestern US...but it won't be a hurricane by then. Impacts would be primarily late next week in the Friday/Saturday timeframe as it is moving very slowly!


Today in weather history- May 24, 1894- Six inches of snow fall in the Virginia and Tennessee mountains as a low moves up. This is unheard of since then for this late in the season...it is almost June, after all!

Friday, May 23, 2014

5/23- Similar to yesterday, I'm afraid

Good Friday all!

The rain is here to stay today unfortunately as a low pressure system tracks off to our Southeast and spins showers and storms into Connecticut. There is even a small chance of severe weather with some medium sized hail a possibility. Beyond today...I expect showers and storms to last until Sunday and then the return of a strong storm threat on Tuesday. Otherwise, Memorial Day itself looks great- bright sun and temps in the low-80s- it will feel more like mid July than late May!


In the Pacific...Tropical Depression 1-E is located 625 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. I expect the depression to strengthen into Tropical Storm Amanda later today, and it could become the first hurricane in my blog's history to track as it meanders in the East Pacific...but is no threat to land anytime in the near future.


Today in weather history- May 23, 1814- A report is issued of larger than grapefruit sized hail in New Hampshire- some reports state the stones were 11" in diameter and weighed half a pound! Personally, I am certain this is somewhat exaggerated (The largest hailstone in US history was only 8" in diameter), but it is still very impressive to see such large hail so far north!

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Pacific Tropics alert #1

Good evening-

The low pressure I have been tracking off Mexico has become Tropical Depression 1-E with winds of 30 mph. I expect this to become Tropical Storm Amanda tonight or tomorrow- I'll keep you posted!

5/22- Yucky day today...

Good Thursday all!

Today is going to be rather yucky...sorry! In fact, I expect rain for a good majority of the day today. Will it be pouring the whole time? No...but it will likely be raining on and off all day- but it will be pouring when it does rain! Do not plan any outdoor activities today- they will likely be cancelled! My mother's school has a field trip to the Rock Cats today...and that will be interesting to say the least! Certainly rain delays will occur, and I doubt greatly they will get the entire game in today, since if it does end, it probably would be after the school day. For those going, prepare to be soaked! Everyone else, be ready for more of the same tomorrow, then thunderstorms Saturday, and Sunday, and Tuesday...etc.

In the Pacific- The system we were watching yesterday southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is showing signs of development and there is a 40% chance of development by Monday.

Today in weather history- May 22, 1937-today- Amazingly, no rain has ever fallen in Las Vegas on this date since records began in 1937. There is one other major weather event today is the anniversary of though


May 22, 2011- The deadliest tornado since 1950 hits Joplin, Missouri. The EF5 tornado destroys the entire south side of the major city, demolishing a school and hospital while killing 154 people. If you have seen me around wearing my 'restore Joplin' shirts (which you will today), I got them in Joplin in 2012, eight months after this tornado. It was a real shock to see the devastation that occurred, and this is one of the major events that has made me want to pursue meteorology. I am telling you, I remember watching the news coverage of this, and I can't believe it has been 3 years!

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

5/21- Pretty nice today, not tomorrow!

Good Wednesday all!

Today is going to be alright with temps in the low 70s...sure there may be an afternoon shower or two, but nothing much to worry about. Tomorrow, however, do not forget the umbrella! The showers look like they will be much more widespread tomorrow and Friday...but beyond that the summer weather finally comes...Memorial Day could see temps in the mid 80s!

In the Pacific...the disturbance discussed yesterday is a bit better organized and there is now a 30% chance of development by Sunday morning.

Today in weather history- May 21, 2001- Golfers participating in a tournament at Majestic Golf Course in Hartland, Michigan received a desperate alert from the GPS on their golf cart- a tornado warning had been issued. Moments later, an EF2 tornado strikes the course, totaling some cars in the parking lot and damaging the clubhouse! Despite the situation, only one golfer is injured, despite the fact that some had to take shelter on the course if they weren't near the clubhouse. This is why you always keep your eyes on the skies while golfing!

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

5/20- Nice Today..but only today

Good Tuesday all!

This is the last dry day of the week! Unfortunately, while today will be very nice, with clear skies and temps in the low 70s, it goes away. Tomorrow looks like a bit of a soaker, but then we reduce it to scattered showers for Thursday and Friday, with temps highly similar to what we are experiencing today.

In the Pacific...an area of low pressure 475 miles SW of Acapulco has a 20% chance of development by Saturday afternoon.

Today in weather history- May 20, 1916- An incredibly rare occurrence takes place as Codell, Kansas is hit by a tornado...for the third year in a row...on the exact same date! To make it even stranger, they increased in intensity- 1914 was an F2, 1915 an F3, and 1916 an F4!

Monday, May 19, 2014

5/19- same as yesterday

Good Monday everyone!

Nothing changes from yesterday, temps in the high 60s or low 70s for everyone today with PM showers, tomorrow looks good, beyond that not so much. Still a 20% chance of tropical development in the Pacific with the disturbance about 500 miles SW of Mexico. Personally, I doubt it will develop- conditions are not exactly favorable for it as it moves into colder waters NW of it's current position.


Today in weather history- May 19, 1780- The people of New England are started when smoke from a Michigan wildfire blots out the sun over New England at noon, making it as though it was nighttime, and causing residents to fear divine wrath, or some other supernatural occurrence.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

5/18- 7 day outlook- Wet and warm!

Good Sunday all-

The rain held off on Friday night and allowed Six Flags to go off without a hitch- we got extremely lucky! On the other hand, the upcoming week doesn't look great- see below...

Today- mostly sunny- highs in the mid-60s
Monday- See above but with scattered PM showers
Tuesday- Similar to Saturday- highs in the low 70s
Wednesday- Heavy rain and temps in the mid 60s
Thurs-Sat- Occasional downpours, generally very rainy.

A storm watch may be required for midweek. Stay tuned!

In the Pacific- There is a low potential for development of a low several hundred miles west of Mexico. Any land impacts would be minimal

Today in weather history- May 18, 1902- The southernmost tornado outbreak on record kills 112 people in Goliad, TX, which is located about an hour north of Brownsville (the southernmost town in TX). This tornado is the 10th deadliest in US history

Friday, May 16, 2014

5/16- I hate to do this to my Sound School Friends but...

Good Friday all!

Of all days, I regret to inform you that a STORM WARNING will be in effect from 10 PM tonight until noon tomorrow. A slow moving cold front will drench Connecticut with some extremely heavy rain tonight, and I expect 1.5 to as much as 4 inches of rain. YIKES!! If the trip to Six Flags has any hope, it would be that the heaviest stuff may come either at the very end of the trip or just after we leave at 1...but that will be tough. I'll definitely be bringing my raincoat!! Beyond that, though, the weather clears out and Sunday looks divine with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 inland and mid 60s at the shore.


In the Pacific...tropical development is possible with a low pressure expected to form several hundred miles south of Mexico and moves west northwest. There is a 20% chance of this becoming Tropical Storm Amanda in the next five days.


Today in weather history- May 16, 1876- A lightning bolt strikes a playground during school recess in Rondeau, Ontario, injuring 12 and killing one person.


Keep your fingers crossed everyone!

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Before I forget

Today, May 15, 2014, is the beginning of the Pacific Hurricane season. These storms generally move out to sea, but occur more frequently than storms in the Atlantic basin and do hit Mexico from time to time. The coast of California has only seen one hurricane hit directly, which occurred in San Diego on October 2, 1858. On average, 15 named storms form, with 8 hurricanes and 4 major (cat 3+). The season seems likely to be above average due to an El Nino. The Atlantic season begins June 1, or two weeks from Sunday. The name list this year is...

Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genvieve, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke. Recognize any of them? The one that stands out to me is Norbert, since I think of that one as Hagrid's dragon in Harry Potter...



Also, there is hope for tomorrow night after all it appears. It won't be dry- don't get that wrong- but there may be an out in that the heaviest rain may hold off until 2-3 AM. Don't hold your breath on it...but here's to hoping!

5/15- Quick update

Hello all- sorry for the lack of updates lately, I've been rather ill!

Today will be cloudy damp and miserable with scattered showers, nothing too bad though until tomorrow night. It's going to come uncomfortably close to ruining the senior trip to 6 flags tomorrow night, when one inch of rain is very possible. Enjoy the day!

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

5/13- Not much going on til Friday

Good Tuesday all!

Yesterday, Hartford hit the big 9-0 for the first time since September and tied the record high set in 1975, but the rest of the state was a tad colder in general with the majority of temps in the 80s. The nice weather should hold the next few days with the exception of a few storms around Thursday afternoon. My big concern, however, is Friday night into Saturday, and I will issue a STORM WATCH at this time for that time period as there could be 1-3" of rain statewide. The timing on this for my senior class trip to 6 Flags could not be much worse, and I think many people at Sound School will be very displeased by this forecast! If there is an out here, it would be if the rain arrived Saturday, but I just don't see that happening. I expect a wet night at the park for sure!

Until then, have a good one. I'll have more on the rainstorm tomorrow!

Today in weather history- May 13, 1866- A tornado somehow manages to hit Barnet, Vermont, and demolishes a toll bridge in the area! While tornadoes in Vermont are extremely rare, it just goes to show they can happen anywhere- there was a tornado near Juneau, AK just five years ago!

Saturday, May 10, 2014

5/10- The first severe threat of 2014

Good Saturday all!

Today's hot and humid weather brings the first true severe weather threat of 2014, which could feature a variety of things if you get trapped under the heavier cells this afternoon. I would say that there is about a 25% chance of a severe storm passing over any one point in CT.

Today's threats include:

Lightning- Very high in/around storms
Hail- Possible threat in strongest cells- pea to dime sized
Flooding/Rain- Possible in cells- torrential downpours likely in spots
Damaging wind- Unlikely except in the very strongest cells, and likely not any >45mph likely anyway
Tornadoes- No threat today at all- not enough instability/wind shear


For those who may care about the Thursday prom at Sound School and the senior class trip Friday...it is looking...


really, really bad. I expect pouring rain on both Thursday and Friday at the present time. In fact, it is significant enough to possibly warrant a storm watch...I am watching it closely, since the timing could not be worse!


Today in weather history- May 10, 2010- A tornado ironically hits the barn that the movie Twister was filmed in. The odds of getting hit by a tornado is so slim, yet this coincidence is really ironic and shows just how bizarre fate can be at times

Friday, May 9, 2014

5/9- Wet Friday!

Good Friday all!

Unfortunately, it won't be a 'good' weather day, as it is likely to rain the majority of the rain today, with even thunder and lightning a distinct possibility as a warm front moves through today. The risk of showers and storms tomorrow, however, increases as a cold front moves through. Despite this, however, we continue to raise our temps- but the price is those popup thunderstorms in the afternoon. On Tuesday for example, it would not floor me to see somebody in Connecticut hit the mark of 90 degrees!!! It seems we are about to get our first taste of the summer season!

Today in weather history- May 9, 1977- This is it! The latest snowfall on record in Connecticut occurs, as BDL records 2" of snow! However, that is just a tease- Norwalk manages, somehow, to recieve two feet of snow. Yes, really, it did happen. The fall equivalent would be a storm of this magnitude around October 20. Since we got one similar to this on October 29, 2011, that simply goes to show that it is possible! And don't worry- I don't see this record falling anytime soon!


Countdown to the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season- 23

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Oops- totally wrong today!

Just thought I'd say "sorry" to the blown forecast today. I am shocked that the rain hung on as long as it did, but hey, nobody's perfect!



Also- I am going to begin a countdown today. There are now just 24 days until the beginning of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Yipee! I don't think it'll be especially active this year- strong El Nino this year :(  ...but it only takes one, so here's to hoping!

5/8- Here come the 80s!

Good Thursday all!

A very pleasant day is on the way today...albeit a bit nippy with highs only reaching the low to mid 60s. This, however, is about to change big time as a warm front moves through tomorrow with some light showers and paves the way for nearly 80 degree temperatures Sunday and Monday! Unfortunately it does come with a price- thunderstorms are likely each day from Sat-Mon, and, although the weekend won't be a washout, we will have to keep our eyes to the skies.

Have a great day!


Today in weather history- May 8, 1902- Mt. Pelee on Martinique erupts after slowly waking up for over 30 years, but catches residents off guard and kills 29,998 of the 30,000 people on the island- the only two survivors are prisoners in an underground cell that the lava passed over but not into.

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

5/7- No change in forecast

Good Wednesday and Happy hump day!


There is no change in the forecast today, so enjoy the high temps in the 70s and generally partly cloudy conditions. No need to write more today- everything I said yesterday remains valid, thus, I won't bore you with a long discussion here.

Today in weather history- May 7, 2000- A family escapes injury in a tornado after their pet dog ran to the basement during a thunderstorm and hid there until a tornado passed directly over the house. It has been proven that animals have a special instinct with regards to weather, and this is just one of several such examples.

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

5/6- Severe threat Saturday decreasing while a rainstorm possible next week

Good Tuesday all!

I think we may be let off the hook for the severe stuff Saturday afternoon as clouds move in earlier now and limit the instability. Needless to say, however, this could change (and probably will) before the day, so I'll keep my eye on it. On the other hand, other than some scattered showers tomorrow night, the remainder of this week looks highly pleasant with temps in the 70s (and we may get to 80 Saturday!). The good weather streak ends early next week though with the potential for a soaking rainstorm next Tuesday.


Today in weather history- May 6, 1912- After nearly 3 years (994 days), it finally rains in Bagdad, CA, breaking the all time US record dry streak.

Also, May 6, 1937- The Hindenburg disaster occurs, as a hydrogen leak is ignited by an electric discharge, killing 35 people

Monday, May 5, 2014

5/5- Pretty nice week ahead

Good morning all and Feliz Cinco de Mayo!

Today is going to be a very nice day- residual clouds from the storm yesterday move out of the region. The one price we have to pay is wind- the gusts could be up to 30-40 mph this afternoon. Moving forward, Tues-Thurs will feature highly pleasant weather with little wind and sunny skies. Friday, however, we get trapped by a low pressure system and rain will recommence. Saturday could be the first day we have the dread 'hot humid and hazy' day of the year...but a cold front appears to be timed perfectly in the late afternoon that day to produce very strong storms, large hail, damaging winds, and maybe even tornadoes...I'll be watching it! Until then...enjoy! Here is the forecast for the week

Today: Sunny and windy- highs in the mid-60s but it will feel like 50s
Tuesday-Thursday: Sunny and mild, highs in the high 60s or low 70s
Friday- Periods of rain with a warm front. Highs in the low 70s
Saturday- Hot & humid with severe PM thunderstorms. Highs in the mid to high 70s (someone may get to 80 inland)

Enjoy the week!

Today in weather history- May 5, 2002- A large number of storm chasers get trapped when a tornado touches down almost directly on top of them...but luckily escape injury. Their cars, however, are not so lucky, and many are badly damaged.

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Another note

I almost forgot to say- May the fourth be with you all!

5/4- Some hail today?

Good Sunday all-

Today's weather looks fine except for a few afternoon storms, some of which could produce small hail and damaging winds! Highs will be in the mid to high 60s, with the 1st warmup of the season coming late week. A lengthy rainstorm is possible Friday with a warm front, and temps could approach or exceed 80! Unfortunately, with that high temperature and a cold front moving through, the setup is perfect for the first truly significant severe threat of the season- if the front times out perfectly, there could be large hail, damaging winds, and at least a small threat of tornadoes...I don't think anyone wants that! However, plenty can, and will, change as we approach this date. The rest of the week, expect primarily dry weather with temps near 70.

Today in weather history- May 4, 2007- The first EF5 tornado in 8 years destroys Greensburg, Kansas, killing 11 people. This ends the second-longest drought of F5's in recorded history

Saturday, May 3, 2014

5/3- First true thunderstorm threat of 2014

HAPPY WEEKEND EVERYONE!

The first true threat of storms comes today and tomorrow as a front moves through the region. Enough instability is aloft where we could get pop-up showers and storms the next few days, some of which could produce hail and damaging winds. Indeed, some could be borderline severe this afternoon- though not everyone will even see a drop of rain. The situation repeats itself tomorrow, before temps climb to the mid 60s and we clear out Mon-Thurs, with more rain possible Friday. All in all, a boring weather week awaits us. The odds of snow mixing in tomorrow night are still there, but lower- I would guess about 10:1 for the moment.


Today in weather history- May 3, 1999- The single strongest wind speed ever recorded on Earth (A whopping 318mph) is found in an F5 tornado in Moore, Oklahoma. 41 people are killed and 581 injured in what is widely regarded as the most severe storm on record, and was one of only about 3 tornadoes in history which the NWS seriously considering awarding F6 damage to. Oddly, this would be the last F5 or EF5 tornado until Greensburg, Kansas was hit by one eight years later in 2007.

Friday, May 2, 2014

Interesting development for Monday

For what it is worth (Don't cry!), some computer models are showing the chance of............................................snow?!!! for Sunday night into Monday. While I don't buy it yet since some really bizarre thermal profiles are appearing that I haven't quite seen before, this is noteworthy in that it would be the second latest snowfall in Connecticut history if this occurs (May 9, 1977 is the latest when BDL picked up 1.3" of the white stuff). This could be fun!


Thursday, May 1, 2014

5/1- Forecast unchanged from yesterday...heavy rain likely

Good Thursday all and HAPPY NEW MONTH- IT'S MAY!

There is not much to discuss today except that the rain from yesterday will continue. Sorry everyone, but it will pour all day once again! In fact, thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon with heavy rain and thunder and lightning, so remember the old adage 'when thunder roars go indoors' and keep your eyes to the skies this PM. Beyond that, the rain gets lighter and only scattered showers are likely through the rest of the week, as there are no days that I can say have no chance of rain.

Happy May Day!


Today in weather history- May 1, 1854- The "Great New England Flood" occurs when the CT river breaks a record peak flood stage (It would be broken in 1936) and causes significant damage.