1/31- January Out with a Snow Event

Good Tuesday all-

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for the entire state except for Litchfield County, but they should be in it too!

This is one of those rare "no bias" systems- the forecast will be the same no matter where you live today. I'm going with generally 2-5" of snow today...with everyone having equal chances of getting either end of the total, with perhaps a slightly higher risk the further north you go. The result is that the majority of schools in the state have early dismissals, a trend that I would expect to continue through the morning as the flakes begin to fly in the 10AM timeframe. Regardless of whether you get out early or not- and I cannot stress this enough- be extremely careful this afternoon. Three to five inches of snow is not something to mess around with, and I highly advise you to limit travel from about noon to seven or eight PM this evening. At this time, however, there is some good news- it appears that next week's storm on Monday is less significant than originally feared.


It feels like we were just celebrating new year's, but for now it's

1/30- Snowy Week Ahead?

Good Monday all-

Interesting weather is upon us once more, it took us quite a while to get there, but here we go. Tomorrow looks rather snowy, especially in the evening hours, when I am forecasting 1-3" of snow for the entire state. The worst of the system should be much later than the evening commute tomorrow and thus I do not expect significant school issues tomorrow whatsoever. That said, if you do have travel plans tomorrow night...you really have to be careful. For the rest of the week, we can expect seasonably cool temperatures with partly to mostly sunny conditions...until right around the Super Bowl, when it is becoming likely that a major snowstorm will impact our region at least to some degree Sunday night and into Monday morning. It won't be the biggest storm we've ever had, but a double digit snowfall is definitely within the realm of possibility, so we really have to watch this one closely as it could well be the seasons' most significant snowfall so far.


^^^ Don't worry about the rain, that's overdone- this shows a very significant snow event for the entire state.

1/27- Not much to Worry About but...Super Sunday to be "Super Snowy"?

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!!

Are we in for a treat for the next week or so...as long as you don't mind being cold. I mean, yeah it will feel like January/February but...no precipitation is overly likely anytime soon of note. There is a chance for on and off flurries today and Monday, and maybe a coating to an inch or so of snow on Wednesday but honestly, who cares at this time of year. Temperatures will generally be in the mid 30s through this timeframe, but with pretty gusty winds, especially over the weekend, it will feel like 20s/teens.

The only significant issue on the horizon appears to lie around Super Bowl Sunday...but that could be a highly significiant event indeed, with some models showing a foot or more of snow. Obviously, it's way out there and things can and will change between now and then, but we must be vigilant, especially since it is occurring at a time of year when MANY people will be traveling- if you believe the latest model runs, the snow would start right around kickoff, perhaps the worst possible timing.


^^New GFS showing a monster snowstorm for the night of the Super Bowl. Lovely.

1/24- I Missed This One- Many closings and delays today

Good Tuesday all-

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for Hartford, Tolland, Litchfield, and Fairfield County through the morning.

Ouch. So we ended up getting a major winter storm last night because of the sleet...and icing is insanely heavy in the end with as much as three inches of sleet in parts of the state, and many schools are closed today as a result. I expected some delays last night...but closings were beyond my wildest expectations. More sleet is likely through the day today and we will likely deal with another 1-3" of sleet by the evening along and north of I-84. This is the heaviest sleet event I can remember in my life- my ground is totally covered and my school district is closed. It truly is amazing just how powerful a high pressure center can be in allowing cold air to remain in place throughout the region.

The rest of the week looks pretty quiet, so we just have to get through today before things improve greatly tomorrow.

1/23- Major Nor'Easter of Mix Tonight

Good Monday all-

Ooh boy is tonight going to be interesting. First things first...a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for Hartford, Litchfield, and Tolland Counties...a WIND ADVISORY is up for the entire state except the immediate shoreline where there is a HIGH WIND WARNING and a COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. Areas just south of Long Island have a HURRICANE WARNING(!!)- yes really! That doesn't mean this is going to be a hurricane here by any stretch, but this is going to be a powerful and significant storm for our region. This is the storm that spawned all the tornadoes yesterday that killed 20 people in the deep south. The end result is a 1-3" rainfall with extremely strong wind...and possibly quite a bit of sleet, especially inland away from the water, where the WWA's are up in particular. Make no mistake today folks- this storm is a serious situation indeed, and widespread power outages are possible, especially along the shoreline. The heaviest of the rain and wind should begin at around 5 PM and be the worst in the overnight hours before winding down tomorrow morning. Otherwise this week, we can expect partly cloudy conditions with highs in the 40s until Friday morning, when temperatures will drop down to seasonable for the forseeable future and flurries are possible on both Friday and Saturday as we head into the weekend.


^^^When the weather map looks like this, the weather is going to get crazy. Note the dark red south of Long Island showing the HURRICANE WARNING.

Today in weather history- January 23, 1971- Prospect Creek, AK- located just north of Fairbanks- records the all time US coldest temperature, with the mercury dropping to -80 degrees.

1/20- STORM WATCH- Historic Day- but Forgettable Weather

Happy Friday, and Inauguration Day everyone!

Today is going to be mild with highs in the mid-40s, but that's nothing compared to where we're heading tomorrow with highs in the low 50s and bright sunshine. Some showers are likely today- and in DC as well, where the NWS is going with a 100% chance of rain before 3PM, so the inauguration of Donald Trump will likely be moist and that is unpleasant for all the people going there. Anyway, the storm for next week continues to look very large and it's getting a bit more interesting as a heavy wet pasty snow is quickly becoming possible for northern areas, but for now, I'll go with an ice-cold rain with highs in the mid 30s on Tuesday. UGH. Sunday and Monday look rather wet as well at this point, but the temperatures will likely be slightly warmer than on Tuesday...and we finally clear things out for Wednesday with highs in the mid 40s.

Today in weather history- January 20, 1943- A very strange case of elevation making all the difference. Deadwood, SD, records a temperature of -16 but a mile and a half (and 600ft) away, Lead, SD, is recorded as 52 degrees(!!). That is incredible, and shows just how strange and powerful elevation dependent weather can be.

1/19- STORM WATCH- Significant Storm for Monday-Tuesday

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be a pretty nice day all in all as we wrap up mid-January with partly sunny skies and temps in the mid 40s...for pretty much all of the next seven days(!!!) The only trouble spot appears to be Monday...but that's a really significant issue. Not only will there be absolutely torrential rains (likely 2-4" worth), but the winds will really be howling out of the east, which could result in some moderate coastal flooding, especially on eastern-facing beaches, such as the western shore of New Haven Harbor and places similar to that across the state. This has been consistently shown on the models for several days now...so my confidence in this scenario is high. We do need the rain, but it sure won't feel good with highs struggling to 40 and pouring rain. It's possible we could start with some ice on Monday morning, but I do not believe that will be too big of a deal except in the very highest of elevations. I certainly hope my instinct is right about that!


^^^Yikes! GFS showing a very intense rainstorm for Monday and Tuesday.

Today in weather history- January 19, 1977- For the first, and to date only time on record, snowfall is observed in Miami Beach and Homestead, FL. Such an event is absolutely unbelievable, and was likely associated with an absolutely monstrous dip in the jet stream that allowed very cold Canadian air to rush into the state. What a shock that must have been for the people that lived there!

1/16- Ice Ice Baby?

Good Monday all-

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for all of Northern Connecticut for tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning.

Happy Martin Luther King, Jr. Day- let's all take the time to think about the peaceful ways that this man inspired change in society & helped make America truly a place where "all men are created equal".

Today is going to be very nice day (at least for the middle of January), featuring mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low 40s, but things are changing for tomorrow.

Remember that rainstorm that I talked about last week for tomorrow? Well, the cold air has been a bit more stubborn than we thought, and now I expect that at least the northern part of our state is looking at a pretty significant ice event tomorrow afternoon and evening, with up go a quarter or half inch of ice not out of the realm of possibility, especially in northern sections. The NWS is more conservative on this...and that's fine (and possible) but you do have to be aware that it's entirely possible that it is more significant than that. As for the rest of the week, it looks seasonable for January, but by the weekend highs may approach 50(!)...but...beyond that, it does appear that we'll be far colder and snowier as we head into February- which is not surprising, since February is historically our snowiest month by a pretty significant margin- but look at the bright side- spring is practically just around the corner. By the way, for those attending the presidential inauguration on Friday, DC, it appears that there will be showers in the area!! Stay dry!

Today in weather history- January 16, 1831- Parts of Connecticut pick up about 30" of snow as a blizzard stretches from Georgia to Maine, which is a very impressive event indeed!

1/13- Where's Winter?

Happy FRIDAY everyone!

Winter looks like it's going into about a two-week long hibernation as temperatures look to be significantly above average until around the 25th of the month(!!), thus greatly limiting any threats for snow...but rain is certainly possible, and potentially a good amount of it! The first of these threats lies around the middle of next week as Wednesday looks like pretty much a total washout, with more precipitation likely next weekend but otherwise...wow are we in good shape for most of the next seven days. With a bit of variation, temperatures should primarily average out to the lower 40s for high temperatures...and for January, that's not bad whatsoever!!! Enjoy these next two weeks though- because if you don't...you'll be waiting a while as the first couple weeks of February could be pretty interesting (and Feb is notoriously our snowiest month here in Connecticut, and it looks like this year could be no exception).

Today in weather history- January 12-13, 2011- Winter Storm Benedict drops a ridiculous amount of snow on Connecticut, and breaks the all-time snowstorm record for BDL by dropping 24". In Wallingford, I picked up 30", which was the first time I had ever seen that amount in one storm. Of course, this has become a bit of a forgotten system thanks to 2/8/13's Blizzard Charlotte...but in Hartford...this remains the snowstorm of record, as 2013 somehow only managed to give them about 18", where most of the surrounding areas approached or exceeded three feet. Strange indeed, but...let's give a shoutout to what for many of us is the second biggest snowstorm of our lifetimes.

1/11- A Bit More Rain

Good Wednesday all-

You know, it's really not going to be too bad today- actually it'll be pretty fantastic for mid January!! Highs will be in the 50s and with clearing conditions, it's going to feel like spring! Unfortunately, although temps will be even warmer tomorrow...it will be with some rain as a cold front moves through and brings the temperatures back down into the low 30s by the weekend. The snow threat appears to have vanished for that time, so we can expect a clear, chilly long weekend before a wintry mix or rain moves in for Tuesday, but that will almost certainly transition to plain rain by Wednesday.

There are no major winter storms in sight!

Today in weather history- January 11, 2008- Snow falls in....Baghdad, IRAQ, for the first time in a century. Not only is that region a very dry area in general...but of course it's really rare for temperatures to be below freezing. To have actually had both those events happen together is a true once in a lifetime scenario!

1/9- First Post of the New Year- Looking back on Breanna and Ahead to this Week

Good Monday all-

I'm back!!

Well, I had fully intended to post about Breanna but the Walt Disney World Resort had other ideas...so I was unable to find enough time to do so. The forecast for the coming week has a bit of issues though- it's a pretty easy forecast, but it's unpleasant!

Today, thankfully, should be dry (though the fact that temperatures are about -4 out there today in spots is not pleasant!)- but enjoy it because this is the last day until maybe next week that we will be completely dry- many separate systems are on the way. Fortunately...only one of them looks predominantly white...but that one is far out there on Saturday or Sunday.

Tomorrow afternoon could be problematic for some, especially in the northern and western part of the state, as the first of these systems moves in. It'll take a bit for temperatures to rise above freezing, and thus a wintry mix is likely at the onset, but it will quickly turn to rain by the evening and rain steadily thorough the evening and into Wednesday. The Thursday and Friday rain is the most iffy of any of the forecasted systems...and it's just showers, so don't worry too much about that. The weekend is what really bears the most watching, as a low from the south moves near New England with a high firmly in place. The end result is that any precip that falls will be snow, and some models put out a moderate (3-6"ish) snow event for that timeframe. It certainly bears watching. More rain is likely behind that storm for Monday and Tuesday, the first day back at WCSU for the Spring '17 semester.

Today in weather history- January 9, 1988- A nor'easter drops up to 14" of snow in Worcester, with Boston picking up 10". Not all that impressive, but it's the only noteworthy weather event of this day.