Good Tuesday all-
Well, February is going out a bit wet, but what an incredible month it has been, from Blizzard Chris on the 9th to 70+ degree weather, it had a bit of everything. Today it'll be something else- some rain, particularly later in the afternoon. Granted, it won't be a solid rain by any means, but do take your umbrella later on if you want to remain completely dry. Tomorrow looks much wetter than today, and it is likely to feature some severe weather in the afternoon, including hail, strong wind, and tornadoes. This is highly unusual for early March- but remember that Massachusetts was hit by a tornado on Saturday evening, so it can happen! To add insult to injury, I am tracking the risk of some light to moderate snow on Friday, but it does not appear to be all that significant at this time.
Instead of weather history, here's a little tidbit of fun fact for you. Prior to this week, the temperature in February has only reached 70 three times at BDL- 1985, 1954, and 1976. Each of those years featured a Hurricane in CT later that summer (Gloria in 85, Belle in 76, and Carol and Edna in 54). Does that mean we'll get one this year? Who knows...only time will tell.
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Friday, February 24, 2017
2/24- Stormy Saturday, Back to Cool, Snow?
Happy FRIDAY all!
Today is going to be a very nice day once again, but I cannot rule out some showers in the afternoon hours as a cold front moves through. I am far more concerned about tomorrow though- a line of showers and thunderstorms appears likely to impact the region in the early evening tomorrow night. Some of these storms may be severe...in fact, we are right on the boundary line between a SEE TEXT and MARGINAL risk of severe weather. In the more intense storms, I cannot rule out small hail and gusty winds as they move through. Behind that cold front, temperatures return to normal, and in fact the rain may flip over to some snow for a bit on Saturday night, but no accumulation is likely by any means. The early portion of next week looks dry and seasonable, and a wintry mix threat for Tuesday appears to have decreased significantly overnight as the bulk of the precip appears to fall on the much warmer Wednesday, but we do have to be careful as we enter a colder and stormier pattern for the first couple weeks of March, which does appear to come in like a lion.
Today in weather history- February 24, 2004- A massive snowstorm strikes New Mexico, with areas just east of Santa Fe picking up 20" of snow, and 8" falls in Los Alamos.
Today is going to be a very nice day once again, but I cannot rule out some showers in the afternoon hours as a cold front moves through. I am far more concerned about tomorrow though- a line of showers and thunderstorms appears likely to impact the region in the early evening tomorrow night. Some of these storms may be severe...in fact, we are right on the boundary line between a SEE TEXT and MARGINAL risk of severe weather. In the more intense storms, I cannot rule out small hail and gusty winds as they move through. Behind that cold front, temperatures return to normal, and in fact the rain may flip over to some snow for a bit on Saturday night, but no accumulation is likely by any means. The early portion of next week looks dry and seasonable, and a wintry mix threat for Tuesday appears to have decreased significantly overnight as the bulk of the precip appears to fall on the much warmer Wednesday, but we do have to be careful as we enter a colder and stormier pattern for the first couple weeks of March, which does appear to come in like a lion.
Today in weather history- February 24, 2004- A massive snowstorm strikes New Mexico, with areas just east of Santa Fe picking up 20" of snow, and 8" falls in Los Alamos.
Wednesday, February 22, 2017
2/22- No Change
Greetings everyone-
My thoughts on the upcoming week or so of weather have not changed at all since yesterday, so I'm not going to bore you. The only thing that I believe warrants mentioning here is that there does appear to be a risk of snow on Tuesday, but that's way out there and it does not appear to be significant at this time whatsoever. Otherwise, get outside and enjoy the 50s and 60s for the next 4 days before we send things back down to more seasonable conditions following the passage of an intense cold front on Saturday night, featuring heavy rain.
Today in weather history- February 22, 1773- Extreme cold causes the extremities on church-goers to freeze as they walk there in New England. Although at first that makes you think that it has to be almost impossibly cold...remember that many people would have had to walk a mile or more to get there in the late 18th century and thus would have quite an exposure to the cold, leading to frostbite!
My thoughts on the upcoming week or so of weather have not changed at all since yesterday, so I'm not going to bore you. The only thing that I believe warrants mentioning here is that there does appear to be a risk of snow on Tuesday, but that's way out there and it does not appear to be significant at this time whatsoever. Otherwise, get outside and enjoy the 50s and 60s for the next 4 days before we send things back down to more seasonable conditions following the passage of an intense cold front on Saturday night, featuring heavy rain.
Today in weather history- February 22, 1773- Extreme cold causes the extremities on church-goers to freeze as they walk there in New England. Although at first that makes you think that it has to be almost impossibly cold...remember that many people would have had to walk a mile or more to get there in the late 18th century and thus would have quite an exposure to the cold, leading to frostbite!
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
2/21- Historical Warmth
Hello everyone-
Sorry for not updating lately, but it's because I had nothing to really talk about here. The warmth was, and remains, the top story of the day, with a record high on Sunday and another likely on Thursday. In fact, starting tomorrow, a historic stretch of warmth is likely from tomorrow to Friday, with highs near 60 on Wednesday and Friday, and perhaps even approaching 70 on Thursday!!! As for precipitation, some rain is possible overnight tonight, but the best chance for rain is Saturday, when a cold front moves through, sending the temps back to normal and causing a total washout for the first part of your weekend, whilst Sunday looks dry and seasonable.
Today in weather history- February 21, 1936- Langdon, ND records its' first day above zero degrees in six weeks, and ultimately never records a single day above freezing in the entire three month meteorological winter. That takes some serious cold, even in that part of the country!
Sorry for not updating lately, but it's because I had nothing to really talk about here. The warmth was, and remains, the top story of the day, with a record high on Sunday and another likely on Thursday. In fact, starting tomorrow, a historic stretch of warmth is likely from tomorrow to Friday, with highs near 60 on Wednesday and Friday, and perhaps even approaching 70 on Thursday!!! As for precipitation, some rain is possible overnight tonight, but the best chance for rain is Saturday, when a cold front moves through, sending the temps back to normal and causing a total washout for the first part of your weekend, whilst Sunday looks dry and seasonable.
Today in weather history- February 21, 1936- Langdon, ND records its' first day above zero degrees in six weeks, and ultimately never records a single day above freezing in the entire three month meteorological winter. That takes some serious cold, even in that part of the country!
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Valentine's Day- Chilly but DRY, For Once
Happy Valentine's Day everyone!
Not much to talk about today in the weather world as the storm threat for tomorrow has now been totally eliminated. Thus, I'm only going with a small chance of mixed precip tomorrow, and even what does fall will be exceedingly minor and no big deal for anyone in the state. Otherwise, we really warm things up by the weekend with highs approaching 50 potentially, but partly sunny skies and between 35-45 each and every day.
No major storms in sight for now!
Not much to talk about today in the weather world as the storm threat for tomorrow has now been totally eliminated. Thus, I'm only going with a small chance of mixed precip tomorrow, and even what does fall will be exceedingly minor and no big deal for anyone in the state. Otherwise, we really warm things up by the weekend with highs approaching 50 potentially, but partly sunny skies and between 35-45 each and every day.
No major storms in sight for now!
Monday, February 13, 2017
2/13- Windy, More Snow?
Good Monday all-
A WIND ADVISORY is up for all of Connecticut today
The roads are pretty slick this morning- please take it slow!
Winter Storm Diana is gone for us, but it dropped as much as 8" of snow in Sharon, and most of the state picked up generally 4-6" with some ice as we warmed the atmosphere but not the ground! Thankfully, that may well have been the last major storm for a while, as the Wednesday threat appears to be fairly small at this time. It's still far too close for comfort, but as it is now, I would only expect a couple of flurries as the phasing occurs too far to the east for a significant storm to impact our area,
As for the rest of the week, I think we can be pretty comfortable forecasting partly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, which is a bit below average for this time of year as our average high is now approaching 40 degrees.
Today in weather history- February 11, 1784- Ice flows block the Mississippi River at New Orleans, ultimately ending up in the Gulf of Mexico. This has only happened two times as far as we know- the other was in 1899! That takes some very, very serious cold!
A WIND ADVISORY is up for all of Connecticut today
The roads are pretty slick this morning- please take it slow!
Winter Storm Diana is gone for us, but it dropped as much as 8" of snow in Sharon, and most of the state picked up generally 4-6" with some ice as we warmed the atmosphere but not the ground! Thankfully, that may well have been the last major storm for a while, as the Wednesday threat appears to be fairly small at this time. It's still far too close for comfort, but as it is now, I would only expect a couple of flurries as the phasing occurs too far to the east for a significant storm to impact our area,
As for the rest of the week, I think we can be pretty comfortable forecasting partly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s, which is a bit below average for this time of year as our average high is now approaching 40 degrees.
Today in weather history- February 11, 1784- Ice flows block the Mississippi River at New Orleans, ultimately ending up in the Gulf of Mexico. This has only happened two times as far as we know- the other was in 1899! That takes some very, very serious cold!
Sunday, February 12, 2017
Thoughts on Diana Unchanged...
Hello everyone,
The forecast for Winter Storm Diana remains unchanged from last night, so stay warm, stay safe, and enjoy the storm!
With the use of Diana, the next name on the list is Eugene. Wednesday night and Thursday is our first chance at such a storm. Beyond that, the next three names would be Frank, Geno, and Hugh.
The forecast for Winter Storm Diana remains unchanged from last night, so stay warm, stay safe, and enjoy the storm!
With the use of Diana, the next name on the list is Eugene. Wednesday night and Thursday is our first chance at such a storm. Beyond that, the next three names would be Frank, Geno, and Hugh.
Saturday, February 11, 2017
Winter Storm Diana- A Real Forecasting Nightmare.
Good evening everyone-
We have heavy snow accumulation on the way for tomorrow, but boy is it an insanely tough forecast to decide exactly how much. There are models that say I will get very little accumulation tomorrow in interior southern Connecticut, but some models suggest I could approach a double digit snowfall. This is for a storm that is about 12 hours away from New England...so please take the numbers I am about to display very, very lightly and with lots of flexibility.
We have heavy snow accumulation on the way for tomorrow, but boy is it an insanely tough forecast to decide exactly how much. There are models that say I will get very little accumulation tomorrow in interior southern Connecticut, but some models suggest I could approach a double digit snowfall. This is for a storm that is about 12 hours away from New England...so please take the numbers I am about to display very, very lightly and with lots of flexibility.
This is a reasonable solution. Keep in mind though that some models- the most notable among them being the NAM, bring each town essentially up one category of accumulation. For now though, these forecasts seem reasonable. Have a good night, stay warm & safe!
STORM WARNING- SPECIAL SATURDAY POST
Good Saturday all-
A WINTER STORM WATCH is up for northern areas, and a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for southern areas.
Here we go- the fun continues tomorrow as another major nor'easter heads for New England. The new Euro produces 6-12" for everyone north of the immediate shoreline tomorrow and Saturday. Based on current trends, I'm inclined to agree. The difficult part comes with the interior southern counties. For example, the SREF plumes (a short range ensemble model) have a cluster for Waterbury at about 3"...and another at about one foot of snow. Yeah, that helps. Each station in Connecticut has similar problems. Thus, the difference between a 3-6" south with ice and 6-10" north outcome...and an 8-16" statewide blizzard....is very, very small. And yes, blizzard is not overstated here, as the NWS in Taunton, MA says that the WS watches for our northern counties could easily become blizzard watches or warnings later today.
Keep a close eye on this one- I'll have final totals as soon as I have a better idea than 1-16". :(
Get ready- it does appear for now that this storm will be named Blizzard Diana. By the way, for what it's worth, the #1 analog for this system? 2/8/13. Ouch. Whenever that day pops up, we pay attention!!
A WINTER STORM WATCH is up for northern areas, and a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for southern areas.
Here we go- the fun continues tomorrow as another major nor'easter heads for New England. The new Euro produces 6-12" for everyone north of the immediate shoreline tomorrow and Saturday. Based on current trends, I'm inclined to agree. The difficult part comes with the interior southern counties. For example, the SREF plumes (a short range ensemble model) have a cluster for Waterbury at about 3"...and another at about one foot of snow. Yeah, that helps. Each station in Connecticut has similar problems. Thus, the difference between a 3-6" south with ice and 6-10" north outcome...and an 8-16" statewide blizzard....is very, very small. And yes, blizzard is not overstated here, as the NWS in Taunton, MA says that the WS watches for our northern counties could easily become blizzard watches or warnings later today.
Keep a close eye on this one- I'll have final totals as soon as I have a better idea than 1-16". :(
Get ready- it does appear for now that this storm will be named Blizzard Diana. By the way, for what it's worth, the #1 analog for this system? 2/8/13. Ouch. Whenever that day pops up, we pay attention!!
Friday, February 10, 2017
STORM WATCH- Here we Go Again?
Oh boy everyone-
The new models are suggesting a colder solution for the storm Sunday night. Since the European model is producing a roughly ten to fifteen inch snowfall for all of Connecticut except the immediate shoreline and with a fairly obvious trend towards cooler conditions, I believe the threat of 6 or more inches has now reached 25%, and thus I am issuing a STORM WATCH for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. If the Euro verifies literally, we can expect near-blizzard conditions here in Connecticut, with intense mesoscale banding again. Although the storm has completely different origins from Chris...I would not be surprised to see a similar solution play out. If so...then the snow depth would be approaching record levels through much of our state. After 15" dropped yesterday on average, and another 15" or so potentially in the next 3 days (assuming a 2" snowfall tonight), then well, that would give you a 30" snowpack, an extraordinary rarity here. The next name on the list is Diana...and we may well have found her.
For what it's worth, only once in recorded history has Connecticut had two blizzard warnings in a single winter- and that was in 2014-15. There's a chance, folks. Let's see what happens through the day. This forecast is much tougher than WS Chris, and much can change, but...let's be prudent!
The new models are suggesting a colder solution for the storm Sunday night. Since the European model is producing a roughly ten to fifteen inch snowfall for all of Connecticut except the immediate shoreline and with a fairly obvious trend towards cooler conditions, I believe the threat of 6 or more inches has now reached 25%, and thus I am issuing a STORM WATCH for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. If the Euro verifies literally, we can expect near-blizzard conditions here in Connecticut, with intense mesoscale banding again. Although the storm has completely different origins from Chris...I would not be surprised to see a similar solution play out. If so...then the snow depth would be approaching record levels through much of our state. After 15" dropped yesterday on average, and another 15" or so potentially in the next 3 days (assuming a 2" snowfall tonight), then well, that would give you a 30" snowpack, an extraordinary rarity here. The next name on the list is Diana...and we may well have found her.
For what it's worth, only once in recorded history has Connecticut had two blizzard warnings in a single winter- and that was in 2014-15. There's a chance, folks. Let's see what happens through the day. This forecast is much tougher than WS Chris, and much can change, but...let's be prudent!
2/10- Looking back on a Blizzard, All eyes on Sunday/Monday
Happy FRIDAY everyone!
What. A. Storm. That's all I can say. An absolutely historic and memorable day for sure yesterday as most people in CT got roughly 1.5 feet of snow, experienced blizzard conditions, and extremely frequent thunder and lightning. I am truly speechless. That was so much worse than I anticipated as late as Wednesday night...and that is one that I will always remember. At my house in Naugatuck, I picked up 17" of snow in 9 hours, give or take a little. That means that for the duration of the storm I averaged 2"/hr snowfall rates. Thanks for the memories, Blizzard Chris! The very fact that it was a blizzard is amazing as well. This is because this marks the 3rd year in a row with a blizzard in New England, the 4th overall in that timeframe...and the 5th in the last 5 years. That's really a remarkable streak, considering that in the time period between March 2005 and January 2013...there was a total of one. Think on that for a bit.
To add insult to injury, the fun has just begun. A winter storm is likely tonight into tomorrow, and I think I shall go with 2-4" of snow, which is just what we need...not! as a clipper system moves into our region. It should be mostly gone by tomorrow morning, but more shoveling will be necessary.
The bigger trouble comes Sunday and Monday. Ouch...and this one has the chance to be a blockbuster if everything comes together. Although not currently modeled, this storm has a very, very high ceiling and looks right now to be rather gusty as well. Boston has a very realistic chance on Monday of having their second blizzard in 5 days...and although relatively unlikely...I cannot rule out here in Connecticut either. For what it's worth though, computer models are currently suggesting five to ten inches of snow on Sunday night for areas along and north of I-84...and three to six inches south of there. This seems reasonable to me...and I will go with that. Note that the Euro has about a foot of snow north and about 5-10" for everyone sans the immediate shoreline with gusty winds and would likely be very near blizzard conditions. The next name on the list is Diana...and I think it may very well be on the way. At this time, I would put the risk of a modest 4-8" snowstorm at around 60%, with about a 20% chance of less due to a warmer track and thus more rain, and a 20% chance of a storm either equally as big or bigger than Blizzard Chris as the storm phases earlier and crawls to the northeast, causing a day long nightmare storm scenario. The GFS, currently, has a storm of Chris's intensity and bombing out about two degrees of longitude too far to the east...after passing directly over the benchmark. That's about 100 miles, and in the meteorology world...that's nothing at all
Remarkably, another storm threat exists in the middle to end of next week, but that's way too far out for details.
All in all, please shovel today- if you don't, you will only accomplish having several more inches to shovel tomorrow. I know you don't want to, but most schools in Connecticut are closed again today, so at least you have the time...and you don't want to have another foot or more to shovel out from fall on top of this over the next three days...a situation which I deem to be fairly likely!
What. A. Storm. That's all I can say. An absolutely historic and memorable day for sure yesterday as most people in CT got roughly 1.5 feet of snow, experienced blizzard conditions, and extremely frequent thunder and lightning. I am truly speechless. That was so much worse than I anticipated as late as Wednesday night...and that is one that I will always remember. At my house in Naugatuck, I picked up 17" of snow in 9 hours, give or take a little. That means that for the duration of the storm I averaged 2"/hr snowfall rates. Thanks for the memories, Blizzard Chris! The very fact that it was a blizzard is amazing as well. This is because this marks the 3rd year in a row with a blizzard in New England, the 4th overall in that timeframe...and the 5th in the last 5 years. That's really a remarkable streak, considering that in the time period between March 2005 and January 2013...there was a total of one. Think on that for a bit.
To add insult to injury, the fun has just begun. A winter storm is likely tonight into tomorrow, and I think I shall go with 2-4" of snow, which is just what we need...not! as a clipper system moves into our region. It should be mostly gone by tomorrow morning, but more shoveling will be necessary.
The bigger trouble comes Sunday and Monday. Ouch...and this one has the chance to be a blockbuster if everything comes together. Although not currently modeled, this storm has a very, very high ceiling and looks right now to be rather gusty as well. Boston has a very realistic chance on Monday of having their second blizzard in 5 days...and although relatively unlikely...I cannot rule out here in Connecticut either. For what it's worth though, computer models are currently suggesting five to ten inches of snow on Sunday night for areas along and north of I-84...and three to six inches south of there. This seems reasonable to me...and I will go with that. Note that the Euro has about a foot of snow north and about 5-10" for everyone sans the immediate shoreline with gusty winds and would likely be very near blizzard conditions. The next name on the list is Diana...and I think it may very well be on the way. At this time, I would put the risk of a modest 4-8" snowstorm at around 60%, with about a 20% chance of less due to a warmer track and thus more rain, and a 20% chance of a storm either equally as big or bigger than Blizzard Chris as the storm phases earlier and crawls to the northeast, causing a day long nightmare storm scenario. The GFS, currently, has a storm of Chris's intensity and bombing out about two degrees of longitude too far to the east...after passing directly over the benchmark. That's about 100 miles, and in the meteorology world...that's nothing at all
Remarkably, another storm threat exists in the middle to end of next week, but that's way too far out for details.
All in all, please shovel today- if you don't, you will only accomplish having several more inches to shovel tomorrow. I know you don't want to, but most schools in Connecticut are closed again today, so at least you have the time...and you don't want to have another foot or more to shovel out from fall on top of this over the next three days...a situation which I deem to be fairly likely!
Thursday, February 9, 2017
2/9- Chris Unexpectedly Becomes a Whole Lot Stronger, Biggest Snowstorm in Years
Good Thursday all-
Oh boy, this is going to be fun...
A WINTER STORM WARNING is up for the entire state, but it's a very high end winter storm warning and is nearly a blizzard. Treat it as such.
This is one to remember, and possibly even one for the ages for some. There's a decent chance this is a top 10 all time snowstorm for the Hartford area.
My new forecast calls for 10-20" totals widespread with locally up to two feet. Yes, it wouldn't shock me if someone in the heavier bands managed to get there. To make this even more incredible is that this one will be ending in about 12-14 hours. Do the math. This will be an extremely intense, quick hitting system but one to remember in a BIG way. Had there been a blocking high in place, this would have shattered all the existing snowfall records in Connecticut (yes, even 2013).
That said, there isn't...so let's not talk in theoretical. Seriously, just stay home today, all the schools are closed in Connecticut today, and we're going to be dealing with a major to borderline historic snowstorm for us here. Snow is just now beginning, and we can expect generally 1-4"/hr snowfall rates, winds gusting to 40+mph, and heavy accumulations until about 4-7 PM tonight. Again, I expect most of Connecticut to fall between one and two feet of snow...with far more places near the one foot or 1.5 foot marks than the 2 feet.
To add insult to injury....we can expect 1-4" of snow on Saturday morning...and we have no fewer than three very significant snow events in the next week. That inside runner for Monday is trying to not-really-be one and if some models are right, there could be several inches of snow on that day is well, and in addition to that, big storms are possible Wednesday and next weekend. This could be a historic month if everything comes together as we enter an almost ludicrously active pattern with this storm.
No point in doing a "today in weather history"- today is weather history- so hunker down and enjoy Winter Storm Chris. If anything significant changes, I'll be here for you!
FWIW, the next name on WFSB's name list is Diana, followed by Eugene and Frank. Could we actually get all 3 in the next week or so...yeah it's possible. (Monday, Wednesday, next weekend). In other words, both this storm and the coming month....
Stay warm, stay safe, & enjoy WS Chris, the first in a long line of snowstorms!
Oh boy, this is going to be fun...
A WINTER STORM WARNING is up for the entire state, but it's a very high end winter storm warning and is nearly a blizzard. Treat it as such.
This is one to remember, and possibly even one for the ages for some. There's a decent chance this is a top 10 all time snowstorm for the Hartford area.
My new forecast calls for 10-20" totals widespread with locally up to two feet. Yes, it wouldn't shock me if someone in the heavier bands managed to get there. To make this even more incredible is that this one will be ending in about 12-14 hours. Do the math. This will be an extremely intense, quick hitting system but one to remember in a BIG way. Had there been a blocking high in place, this would have shattered all the existing snowfall records in Connecticut (yes, even 2013).
That said, there isn't...so let's not talk in theoretical. Seriously, just stay home today, all the schools are closed in Connecticut today, and we're going to be dealing with a major to borderline historic snowstorm for us here. Snow is just now beginning, and we can expect generally 1-4"/hr snowfall rates, winds gusting to 40+mph, and heavy accumulations until about 4-7 PM tonight. Again, I expect most of Connecticut to fall between one and two feet of snow...with far more places near the one foot or 1.5 foot marks than the 2 feet.
To add insult to injury....we can expect 1-4" of snow on Saturday morning...and we have no fewer than three very significant snow events in the next week. That inside runner for Monday is trying to not-really-be one and if some models are right, there could be several inches of snow on that day is well, and in addition to that, big storms are possible Wednesday and next weekend. This could be a historic month if everything comes together as we enter an almost ludicrously active pattern with this storm.
No point in doing a "today in weather history"- today is weather history- so hunker down and enjoy Winter Storm Chris. If anything significant changes, I'll be here for you!
FWIW, the next name on WFSB's name list is Diana, followed by Eugene and Frank. Could we actually get all 3 in the next week or so...yeah it's possible. (Monday, Wednesday, next weekend). In other words, both this storm and the coming month....
Stay warm, stay safe, & enjoy WS Chris, the first in a long line of snowstorms!
Wednesday, February 8, 2017
2/8- STORM WARNING- Winter Storm Chris to Crush Connecticut Tomorrow
Good Wednesday all-
In a relatively unusual event, ALL OF CONNECTICUT IS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING,
Here we go- the first truly huge snowstorm of the winter is upon us, with a heavy accumulation likely during the day tomorrow. In fact, it will be snowing intensely all day from about 4 AM to 5 PM, with a general 7-14" snow event likely for all of the state. Some may be a bit higher, others a bit lower, but this should be a decent general rule. This will be the powdery kind of snow, with blowing and drifting likely as well. It'll be really tough to measure the snow because, ultimately, there will be piles of varying heights. The best method is to measure in 3 different locations...and even then it likely won't be entirely accurate, but at least you'll have a pretty good idea.
More snow is likely during the evening on Friday, with a 1-4" snowfall looking likely as a clipper system moves through before a more significant storm looks likely on Sunday/Monday, with potentially another several inches of snow or mixed precipitation. That said, Chris is definitely the most significant feature on the map for a week or so. By next Friday, another colossal nor'easter will be nearby...
Today is the 4 year anniversary of the legendary Blizzard Charlotte. That's all I need to say about that once in a generation storm that crippled south central Connecticut. Tomorrow is no Charlotte- but it's still an impactful storm!
In a relatively unusual event, ALL OF CONNECTICUT IS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING,
Here we go- the first truly huge snowstorm of the winter is upon us, with a heavy accumulation likely during the day tomorrow. In fact, it will be snowing intensely all day from about 4 AM to 5 PM, with a general 7-14" snow event likely for all of the state. Some may be a bit higher, others a bit lower, but this should be a decent general rule. This will be the powdery kind of snow, with blowing and drifting likely as well. It'll be really tough to measure the snow because, ultimately, there will be piles of varying heights. The best method is to measure in 3 different locations...and even then it likely won't be entirely accurate, but at least you'll have a pretty good idea.
More snow is likely during the evening on Friday, with a 1-4" snowfall looking likely as a clipper system moves through before a more significant storm looks likely on Sunday/Monday, with potentially another several inches of snow or mixed precipitation. That said, Chris is definitely the most significant feature on the map for a week or so. By next Friday, another colossal nor'easter will be nearby...
Today is the 4 year anniversary of the legendary Blizzard Charlotte. That's all I need to say about that once in a generation storm that crippled south central Connecticut. Tomorrow is no Charlotte- but it's still an impactful storm!
Tuesday, February 7, 2017
2/7- Ice to Rain to Big Snow!
Good Tuesday all-
Interesting times indeed here in New England for meteorologists.
First off, a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for northern CT, whilst the rest of the state except for the immediate shoreline is in a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
Next off, it is likely that this afternoon we will be placed under a WINTER STORM WATCH for Thursday.
Wow. After last night, the major computer models are coming into agreement on the solution for Thursday...and it's the solution that appears to produce the highest possible snowfall totals. Today, though, freezing rain is a very big issue, and many schools are closed, especially those in valleys and on mountaintops. Virtually everyone has a delay as well...we'll see what happens, but I think this is likely a good call as the freezing rain should continue to fall through the morning and into the afternoon.
A much bigger deal, though, could occur on Thursday morning as mentioned before. The GFS had a massive jump north this morning...as did the Euro.
^^00z GFS showing barely any snow
^^^06z GFS this morning (the most recent), showing a colossal snowstorm for Connecticut.
Additionally, the Euro, which was very low yesterday...now has come on board with a higher total. Therefore, I have moderate confidence in forecasting generally 6-12" of snow, with locally higher amounts. This is closely aligned with the NAM and GFS and is slightly higher than the Euro...which has been missing low all year. This is one of those rare "equal opportunity" snowfalls- everyone in CT will get the same range on this one, from Litchfield to the New London coast! Thus, I do think you can pretty much book a snow day for Thursday...and a great deal of time spent shoveling...so be sure you have your snow blowers ready as a major snowstorm appears to be on the way towards our region.
Today is the 11th anniversary of 2006's Blizzard Carson, which remains the second biggest snowstorm on record for Hartford, having dropped 24" of snow on the airport. A humongous nor'easter indeed. Thursday's storm may be impressive...but it's not another Carson for sure!
Interesting times indeed here in New England for meteorologists.
First off, a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for northern CT, whilst the rest of the state except for the immediate shoreline is in a FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
Next off, it is likely that this afternoon we will be placed under a WINTER STORM WATCH for Thursday.
Wow. After last night, the major computer models are coming into agreement on the solution for Thursday...and it's the solution that appears to produce the highest possible snowfall totals. Today, though, freezing rain is a very big issue, and many schools are closed, especially those in valleys and on mountaintops. Virtually everyone has a delay as well...we'll see what happens, but I think this is likely a good call as the freezing rain should continue to fall through the morning and into the afternoon.
A much bigger deal, though, could occur on Thursday morning as mentioned before. The GFS had a massive jump north this morning...as did the Euro.
^^00z GFS showing barely any snow
^^^06z GFS this morning (the most recent), showing a colossal snowstorm for Connecticut.
Additionally, the Euro, which was very low yesterday...now has come on board with a higher total. Therefore, I have moderate confidence in forecasting generally 6-12" of snow, with locally higher amounts. This is closely aligned with the NAM and GFS and is slightly higher than the Euro...which has been missing low all year. This is one of those rare "equal opportunity" snowfalls- everyone in CT will get the same range on this one, from Litchfield to the New London coast! Thus, I do think you can pretty much book a snow day for Thursday...and a great deal of time spent shoveling...so be sure you have your snow blowers ready as a major snowstorm appears to be on the way towards our region.
Today is the 11th anniversary of 2006's Blizzard Carson, which remains the second biggest snowstorm on record for Hartford, having dropped 24" of snow on the airport. A humongous nor'easter indeed. Thursday's storm may be impressive...but it's not another Carson for sure!
Monday, February 6, 2017
2/6- Active Week Ahead
Good Monday all-
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for northern Connecticut for tomorrow morning.
Well, this week is going to be a meteorological nail-biter in every sense of the words, with not one but two incredibly complex storm systems heading for us here in Connecticut. Both forecasts are extremely high risk and lie in the near future, so this will be rather difficult indeed. Let's divide this into two sections here.
Storm #1- Tomorrow and Wednesday- A very intense storm system will be moving to our west, the proverbial "inside runner". As of now, it appears that there will be just barely enough warm air in place to negate significant icing, but it's insanely close- something like one or two degrees- so even a tiny forecast error will be absolutely catastrophic to the overall forecast. For now, however, I am going to say that any icing would occur mid morning before changing to plain rain in plenty of time for the afternoon commute home. Let's hope so- this would be fantastic news and could spare a travel headache!
^^Current GFS for tomorrow afternoon, suggesting heavy rain in CT, but only plain rain.
Storm #2- Thursday 2/9- This could be much more impactful than the storm tomorrow, as this one will have no precip issues- it's going to be snow. The question is how much it will pile up- some models say very little, whilst others suggest up to a double-digit snowfall during the day. To add insult to injury, the timing looks like it would basically be all day on Thursday. As we're still a couple days out, there's time to watch. A reasonable worst case scenario is 8-16", but a fair guess would be 2-5" at this time. That said, it's going to be close! The GFS over the last two runs has suggested each of these, which is not helpful for forecasting, and the Euro is somewhere in between with a 4-8" event. Here are the last two GFS model runs...
^^^The worst scenario- a monster sized snowstorm for all of New England, featuring gusty winds and double-digit accumulations. The odds of this occurring right now are roughly 30%.
^^^A less bullish, but still snowy, solution for Thursday. This is a 2-5" snowfall with locally higher amounts, especially in southeastern parts of the state. Also keep in mind that due to the strength of the cold air, this would be a high-ratio snow, so numbers would be a bit higher than what is modeled verbatim.
Plenty to watch this week- I'll have more updates soon!
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for northern Connecticut for tomorrow morning.
Well, this week is going to be a meteorological nail-biter in every sense of the words, with not one but two incredibly complex storm systems heading for us here in Connecticut. Both forecasts are extremely high risk and lie in the near future, so this will be rather difficult indeed. Let's divide this into two sections here.
Storm #1- Tomorrow and Wednesday- A very intense storm system will be moving to our west, the proverbial "inside runner". As of now, it appears that there will be just barely enough warm air in place to negate significant icing, but it's insanely close- something like one or two degrees- so even a tiny forecast error will be absolutely catastrophic to the overall forecast. For now, however, I am going to say that any icing would occur mid morning before changing to plain rain in plenty of time for the afternoon commute home. Let's hope so- this would be fantastic news and could spare a travel headache!
^^Current GFS for tomorrow afternoon, suggesting heavy rain in CT, but only plain rain.
Storm #2- Thursday 2/9- This could be much more impactful than the storm tomorrow, as this one will have no precip issues- it's going to be snow. The question is how much it will pile up- some models say very little, whilst others suggest up to a double-digit snowfall during the day. To add insult to injury, the timing looks like it would basically be all day on Thursday. As we're still a couple days out, there's time to watch. A reasonable worst case scenario is 8-16", but a fair guess would be 2-5" at this time. That said, it's going to be close! The GFS over the last two runs has suggested each of these, which is not helpful for forecasting, and the Euro is somewhere in between with a 4-8" event. Here are the last two GFS model runs...
^^^The worst scenario- a monster sized snowstorm for all of New England, featuring gusty winds and double-digit accumulations. The odds of this occurring right now are roughly 30%.
^^^A less bullish, but still snowy, solution for Thursday. This is a 2-5" snowfall with locally higher amounts, especially in southeastern parts of the state. Also keep in mind that due to the strength of the cold air, this would be a high-ratio snow, so numbers would be a bit higher than what is modeled verbatim.
Plenty to watch this week- I'll have more updates soon!
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
2/1- Snow threat for Monday Decreasing
Good Wednesday all-
The snow from yesterday is gone, but it certainly did its' damage with up to 3" of snow officially falling in Milford. However...I live in Naugatuck, and it's very clear that I have more than that, something of about 4" or so is about right. Regardless, it was a very impressive burst of snow in the afternoon, and thus some delays have occurred this morning. For the rest of the week, we can expect seaosnable temperatures with highs in the low 30s, lows in the teens, and partly sunny conditions. Our snow threat for Sunday has vanished almost entirely, and although I am not ready to sound the "all clear" just yet...I am very close, and could do so as soon as tomorrow morning if trends continue. That said, we do have many more systems to watch behind it as we enter what is on average the snowiest month and a half of weather here in Connecticut.
Happy February- and may you find warmth and fun memories in the snowiest month of them all!
The snow from yesterday is gone, but it certainly did its' damage with up to 3" of snow officially falling in Milford. However...I live in Naugatuck, and it's very clear that I have more than that, something of about 4" or so is about right. Regardless, it was a very impressive burst of snow in the afternoon, and thus some delays have occurred this morning. For the rest of the week, we can expect seaosnable temperatures with highs in the low 30s, lows in the teens, and partly sunny conditions. Our snow threat for Sunday has vanished almost entirely, and although I am not ready to sound the "all clear" just yet...I am very close, and could do so as soon as tomorrow morning if trends continue. That said, we do have many more systems to watch behind it as we enter what is on average the snowiest month and a half of weather here in Connecticut.
Happy February- and may you find warmth and fun memories in the snowiest month of them all!
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