Thursday, April 30, 2015

4/30- Bye bye April...hello tropics?

Good Thursday all-

Well, it's going to be really chilly today and tomorrow, as temps will have a very hard time reaching 60. In fact, I doubt they will succeed at that tomorrow, and temps will be stuck around 55. Fortunately next week looks largely good. A warmup is coming, but 83 and humid isn't exactly pleasant, but it should give us a decent chance at strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday night, so that may be interesting for a time as a cold front pushes through and puts the temperature back at a more comfortable 68-73 for the rest of the week.

Now, a month earlier than I should be typing this...

In the Atlantic- Models have been indicating the development of a subtropical or tropical storm off the southeast coast of the United States, stalling it for a bit, and then moving it generally north. The agreement on this much is excellent. Naturally, that puts us here in Connecticut in a highly vulnerable position. Two models...the GFS and the Canadian...say that we're going to get hit by a tropical storm about a week from Saturday. Granted, that's ten days out, so obviously a HUGE amount can (and likely will) change, but it could be uncomfortably close. Unfortunately...though this hurricane season will likely not be very impressive in terms of numbers...the current pattern is likely to steer any storm that forms north of Hispanola generally towards (and eventually up) the eastern seaboard...so our odds of getting hit this year here in New England are probably somewhat higher than usual.

The name list for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is the one that was last used in 2009, which featured a paltry 9 named storms, and none were retired. The only storms that you have a chance of remembering unless you really care about hurricanes (like me) are Hurricane Bill- which nearly clocked us- and Hurricane Ida- which did severe damage in the Bay of Campeche before becoming a powerful nor'easter. The names are Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicolas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda.

The official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1st, but tropical development in May isn't exactly rare, so it wouldn't be totally stunning at all.

Today in weather history- April 30, 1988- A cold front caused unusually strong winds (especially outside of storms)- as high as 90 mph in Southwest Utah downing trees, powerlines, and weak buildings





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