Good Thursday all-
I want to say, on behalf of all the meteorologists in Connecticut, sorry! This was an unusually difficult storm to forecast because of the presence of dry air. What happened yesterday was that the dry air line, which was forecasted by most models to be in Hartford, ended up in New Haven. The end result is that Long Island got the snow we were expecting, whilst we got the dreaded dry area and about half of my advertised minimum snowfall.
This is something that will teach me a lesson, as all busts are. This one, however, is more notable in the sense that it was a high impact forecast that occurred during the middle of the week and the school closures and early dismissals we had yesterday wound up being wholly unnecessary. That is something that we're always trying to improve on, and even if we don't get another chance to do it this winter, we'll be talking about heavy snow potential again in just eight short months- and more experience will be in the books for us.
One last note- I have seen many AWFUL posts directed towards our local TV meteorologists insulting them ruthlessly. I beg you- please refrain from doing that. We all do what we can, and I hope that people realize this is a much more difficult job than they think it is.
All the best.
Thursday, March 22, 2018
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
3/14- Pi isn't Snowy, but Today is
Good Wednesday all-
Happy hump day!
There is a risk of snow this afternoon, I'm afraid- some squalls could drop 1-3" of snow in parts of Connecticut this afternoon. Timing of this would be around 4-5PM, though the exact timing will be vaired depending on exactly what squall you get into, etc. through the afternoon. On the heels of Winter Storm Ferris though, this will feel like nothing....so at least there is that. Unfortunately, there remain strong signs of a nor'easter for the middle of next week- we have to watch that closely. Otherwise the rest of the week looks dry with below average temperatures, with the exception of Sunday, when we will be near if not a bit above 50 degrees. Spring *is* coming, it's just taking a while to get here.
Happy hump day!
There is a risk of snow this afternoon, I'm afraid- some squalls could drop 1-3" of snow in parts of Connecticut this afternoon. Timing of this would be around 4-5PM, though the exact timing will be vaired depending on exactly what squall you get into, etc. through the afternoon. On the heels of Winter Storm Ferris though, this will feel like nothing....so at least there is that. Unfortunately, there remain strong signs of a nor'easter for the middle of next week- we have to watch that closely. Otherwise the rest of the week looks dry with below average temperatures, with the exception of Sunday, when we will be near if not a bit above 50 degrees. Spring *is* coming, it's just taking a while to get here.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Well, that was Interesting
Greetings-
Oh my, well that was an interesting forecast today. Essentially, we had two bands that dropped heavy amounts of snow. One was, as expected, over the eastern sections of our state, and dropped about two feet of snow. The other set up shop essentially along and west of the Rt. 8 corridor in western Connecticut. In other areas, very little in the way of accumulation occurred. At my house in Naugatuck, I picked up between ten and twelve inches, as I was under the western band, but my grandmother in Branford got only 3", and New Haven (literally a 10 minute drive to my south) picked up a whopping total of...nothing. Yeesh. That this happened is not a surprise, but the placement of the western band was to some degree and yielded much higher totals than expected in western sections, while causing a forecast bust for many in the central area. Go figure.
Surely, after three massive nor'easter hits, this is over now right?...Sadly, no, there are several more threats for coastal storms and major snowfalls, the next of which is Tuesday of next week.
It is worth noting that today's snow has pushed my backyard's seasonal snowfall total over 70". That makes this winter the second snowiest of my lifetime, trailing only 2010-11, which produced about 85". Looking at the forecast for the next few weeks...it honestly is not impossible to get there. I'll be watching. Thankfully, unless the weather goes insane over the next few weeks, the all-time record of 115.2" is almost undoubtedly safe for another winter (Another 45" of snow seems more than a bit difficult). Additionally, this is only the second time in the last 22 years that we have used the 'F' name for a storm. The other, 2014-15, culminated with Winter Storm Gavin. The next name on the list is Genny...and we'll see if it comes Tuesday because there is a legitimate shot.
Oh my, well that was an interesting forecast today. Essentially, we had two bands that dropped heavy amounts of snow. One was, as expected, over the eastern sections of our state, and dropped about two feet of snow. The other set up shop essentially along and west of the Rt. 8 corridor in western Connecticut. In other areas, very little in the way of accumulation occurred. At my house in Naugatuck, I picked up between ten and twelve inches, as I was under the western band, but my grandmother in Branford got only 3", and New Haven (literally a 10 minute drive to my south) picked up a whopping total of...nothing. Yeesh. That this happened is not a surprise, but the placement of the western band was to some degree and yielded much higher totals than expected in western sections, while causing a forecast bust for many in the central area. Go figure.
Surely, after three massive nor'easter hits, this is over now right?...Sadly, no, there are several more threats for coastal storms and major snowfalls, the next of which is Tuesday of next week.
It is worth noting that today's snow has pushed my backyard's seasonal snowfall total over 70". That makes this winter the second snowiest of my lifetime, trailing only 2010-11, which produced about 85". Looking at the forecast for the next few weeks...it honestly is not impossible to get there. I'll be watching. Thankfully, unless the weather goes insane over the next few weeks, the all-time record of 115.2" is almost undoubtedly safe for another winter (Another 45" of snow seems more than a bit difficult). Additionally, this is only the second time in the last 22 years that we have used the 'F' name for a storm. The other, 2014-15, culminated with Winter Storm Gavin. The next name on the list is Genny...and we'll see if it comes Tuesday because there is a legitimate shot.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
3.7- Winter Storm Elsa/Quinn Clobbers CT
Good Wednesday all-
As you know, the entire state is under a WINTER STORM WARNING...except for far southeastern areas.
Well, I apologize for not updating on this one before this, but things like school take up a lot more time now than they have in the past.
Having said that, this looks like the most significant snowstorm for much of our region since the Great Blizzard of 2013. Overall, expect ten to twenty inches of accumulation over the entire state, with locally as much as two feet possible. The snow will be heavy as a general rule, but probably will be around 10:1 ratios which is roughly average for our region. The main part of the snow will be between 2PM and 1AM, with snow accumulating at times as much as 4"/hr, strong winds, and thundersnow! We are also watching Monday closely for the risk of another very substantial snowstorm, but we'll have to see how exactly that plays out.
By the way, if you're interested in more weather, you can find me on the youtube channel "WCSU meteorology" Tuesday's at 4PM...and the channel "CTV192" on Thursday mornings at 11AM or so.
Stay warm & safe today!
As you know, the entire state is under a WINTER STORM WARNING...except for far southeastern areas.
Well, I apologize for not updating on this one before this, but things like school take up a lot more time now than they have in the past.
Having said that, this looks like the most significant snowstorm for much of our region since the Great Blizzard of 2013. Overall, expect ten to twenty inches of accumulation over the entire state, with locally as much as two feet possible. The snow will be heavy as a general rule, but probably will be around 10:1 ratios which is roughly average for our region. The main part of the snow will be between 2PM and 1AM, with snow accumulating at times as much as 4"/hr, strong winds, and thundersnow! We are also watching Monday closely for the risk of another very substantial snowstorm, but we'll have to see how exactly that plays out.
By the way, if you're interested in more weather, you can find me on the youtube channel "WCSU meteorology" Tuesday's at 4PM...and the channel "CTV192" on Thursday mornings at 11AM or so.
Stay warm & safe today!
Saturday, February 17, 2018
2/17- Quick HItting but Very Intense Snowfall Tonight
Good Saturday everyone-
All of Connecticut is under a Winter Storm Warning
Well, we're getting agreement on the models, and it looks like the statewide average for snow will be around 6". Thus, 4-8" seems reasonable, but I wouldn't be shocked if some areas come close to a double-digit accumulation. This storm is moving very, very quickly and will only last about 8-10 horus, but the snowfall rates will be extremely, extremely impressive. Wind should be a non-factor with this thing, but the roads tomorrow morning will be tricky and plans should be made if you cannot get out during the morning hours tomorrow. Beyond that, though- we have temperatures near 70 possible by midweek before we have to watch another storm threat for Thursday, but this one looks to stay well out to sea. That could change though...so we'll wait and see as we get closer.
Stay warm & have those shovels ready tonight!!
All of Connecticut is under a Winter Storm Warning
Well, we're getting agreement on the models, and it looks like the statewide average for snow will be around 6". Thus, 4-8" seems reasonable, but I wouldn't be shocked if some areas come close to a double-digit accumulation. This storm is moving very, very quickly and will only last about 8-10 horus, but the snowfall rates will be extremely, extremely impressive. Wind should be a non-factor with this thing, but the roads tomorrow morning will be tricky and plans should be made if you cannot get out during the morning hours tomorrow. Beyond that, though- we have temperatures near 70 possible by midweek before we have to watch another storm threat for Thursday, but this one looks to stay well out to sea. That could change though...so we'll wait and see as we get closer.
Stay warm & have those shovels ready tonight!!
Friday, February 16, 2018
2/16- WINTER STORM WATCH
Happy Friday all-
A WINTER STORM WATCH is up for the entire state.
A significant snow event is now likely tomorrow night. A clipper-like system is going to be moving through our region and rapidly intensifying off the coast, and spinning snow into southern New England. The snow accumulation forecast is a bit difficult, but at this time accumulations of four to eight inches appear to be reasonable. As for the timing of this, it would be hard to choose a time that would be less impactful- we're talking about 9 PM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday- which is great for commuters, and even better- it's going to be very warm beyond that, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday...so all in all, it's really not too bad, but we have tomorrow's snow to get through.
I'll have the latest on what will probably be Winter Storm Dakota either later tonight or tomorrow morning.
A WINTER STORM WATCH is up for the entire state.
A significant snow event is now likely tomorrow night. A clipper-like system is going to be moving through our region and rapidly intensifying off the coast, and spinning snow into southern New England. The snow accumulation forecast is a bit difficult, but at this time accumulations of four to eight inches appear to be reasonable. As for the timing of this, it would be hard to choose a time that would be less impactful- we're talking about 9 PM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday- which is great for commuters, and even better- it's going to be very warm beyond that, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday...so all in all, it's really not too bad, but we have tomorrow's snow to get through.
I'll have the latest on what will probably be Winter Storm Dakota either later tonight or tomorrow morning.
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
1/31- Tracking Sunday...and Oops
Good Wednesday all-
The egg is on all meteorologists faces this morning after yesterday's storm jogged way further west than indicated by any computer model, and as a result dropped a whopping seven inches of snow on New London county. Yikes! My apologies for missing that one- it just goes to show that nature will sometimes do what it wants, and we're all just passengers on the journey.
On another note, the next time period to watch for a significant event is Sunday into Monday. The Friday morning commute also looks kinda rough as we get a rather bizarre snow changing to rain changing back to snow event tomorrow and it could leave, say, two inches of snow in parts of the state for that time period, so we definitely want to be careful there.
The Sunday threat looks much more significant. A coastal low will develop along a frontal boundary and, of course, it all comes down to the track. The high end potential of this one would be something like one foot of snow, so we most definitely have to watch this. Needless to say, models are all over the place five days out, so it's simply something to watch as we head into this weekend. There is also a chance of a significant snow event around the middle of next week, but obviously it's way too early to even talk about that one.
The egg is on all meteorologists faces this morning after yesterday's storm jogged way further west than indicated by any computer model, and as a result dropped a whopping seven inches of snow on New London county. Yikes! My apologies for missing that one- it just goes to show that nature will sometimes do what it wants, and we're all just passengers on the journey.
On another note, the next time period to watch for a significant event is Sunday into Monday. The Friday morning commute also looks kinda rough as we get a rather bizarre snow changing to rain changing back to snow event tomorrow and it could leave, say, two inches of snow in parts of the state for that time period, so we definitely want to be careful there.
The Sunday threat looks much more significant. A coastal low will develop along a frontal boundary and, of course, it all comes down to the track. The high end potential of this one would be something like one foot of snow, so we most definitely have to watch this. Needless to say, models are all over the place five days out, so it's simply something to watch as we head into this weekend. There is also a chance of a significant snow event around the middle of next week, but obviously it's way too early to even talk about that one.
^^^The threat for Monday morning.
Sunday, January 28, 2018
STATUS QUO
Greetings-
With school starting again, it is more difficult for me to find time to blog. As a result, I will post when there is a >=30% chance of either two or more inches of snow or half an inch or more of rain in the next five days.
Right now, there are NO threats between now and the next five days. The next major threat appears to be Friday, which is just outside this window. Should the odds rise, I'll be here!
With school starting again, it is more difficult for me to find time to blog. As a result, I will post when there is a >=30% chance of either two or more inches of snow or half an inch or more of rain in the next five days.
Right now, there are NO threats between now and the next five days. The next major threat appears to be Friday, which is just outside this window. Should the odds rise, I'll be here!
Thursday, January 18, 2018
1/18- I'm Back- Quiet Weather...Emergency in Kent
Good Thursday all-
Today is going to be the last in quite some time to be chilly, as we won't reach the freezing mark, but that will change tomorrow as we finally crack that mark and go above freezing. That will only continue through the weekend, where we likely will see highs in the 50s before a cold front on Monday produces some rain showers and knocks the temperatures back to below freezing once more. Unfortunately, this warmth is causing a potential catastrophe in northwest Connecticut in Kent, where an ice jam is blocking water from proceeding down a river into Long Island Sound. When the ice melts, this will likely result in severe flooding for that region as all the excess water builds up. The hope would be that, instead of melting per se, it simply is allowed to move further down the river. Keep those tiny communities off to our northwest in your thoughts as we move on this weekend. For reference to the severity, Jim Cantore is in Kent this morning. Yikes.
No major snowfalls are in sight anytime in the immediate future, however, the pattern does appear favorable for some white stuff to fall around the 25th.
Today is going to be the last in quite some time to be chilly, as we won't reach the freezing mark, but that will change tomorrow as we finally crack that mark and go above freezing. That will only continue through the weekend, where we likely will see highs in the 50s before a cold front on Monday produces some rain showers and knocks the temperatures back to below freezing once more. Unfortunately, this warmth is causing a potential catastrophe in northwest Connecticut in Kent, where an ice jam is blocking water from proceeding down a river into Long Island Sound. When the ice melts, this will likely result in severe flooding for that region as all the excess water builds up. The hope would be that, instead of melting per se, it simply is allowed to move further down the river. Keep those tiny communities off to our northwest in your thoughts as we move on this weekend. For reference to the severity, Jim Cantore is in Kent this morning. Yikes.
No major snowfalls are in sight anytime in the immediate future, however, the pattern does appear favorable for some white stuff to fall around the 25th.
Saturday, January 6, 2018
1/6- Farewell to a Blizzard, Hello to Cold and a Mix
Good Saturday all-
This will be my last post until next weekend- I will be visiting Austin, TX from tomorrow to Friday for the 98th annual AMS meeting.
Today is going to be really, really cold. Highs will struggle to reach even ten degrees during the day today...ouch. In fact, if we end up falling short of double digits, this would be the coldest day in fourteen years. Seriously, bundle up and stay warm today. Thankfully, no precipitation is expected today or tomorrow, but some light snow or a wintry mix is likely Monday night, which could recoat the ground to the tune of an inch or two before we warm things up by the end of the week with highs in the 40s...finally. The next chance for a major snowstorm arrives on Saturday as a low pressure system develops on the trailing edge of a cold front- keep your eyes on it as I do in Texas, and should that become Winter Storm Clare, you'll know!
Looking back on Blizzard Brody, most of the state received between 8 and 12 inches of snow, but it was the jackpot location that was surprising as, instead of eastern Connecticut hitting it big like expected, the highest totals were found around the I-91 corridor. Staffordville hit the jackpot with 16" of snow but I came in a very close second with a snowfall of 15.5" or so in Naugatuck, which was about double what I was expecting to get...so I was delighted!
I hope all of you have a great week and I'll see you next weekend!!
SP
This will be my last post until next weekend- I will be visiting Austin, TX from tomorrow to Friday for the 98th annual AMS meeting.
Today is going to be really, really cold. Highs will struggle to reach even ten degrees during the day today...ouch. In fact, if we end up falling short of double digits, this would be the coldest day in fourteen years. Seriously, bundle up and stay warm today. Thankfully, no precipitation is expected today or tomorrow, but some light snow or a wintry mix is likely Monday night, which could recoat the ground to the tune of an inch or two before we warm things up by the end of the week with highs in the 40s...finally. The next chance for a major snowstorm arrives on Saturday as a low pressure system develops on the trailing edge of a cold front- keep your eyes on it as I do in Texas, and should that become Winter Storm Clare, you'll know!
Looking back on Blizzard Brody, most of the state received between 8 and 12 inches of snow, but it was the jackpot location that was surprising as, instead of eastern Connecticut hitting it big like expected, the highest totals were found around the I-91 corridor. Staffordville hit the jackpot with 16" of snow but I came in a very close second with a snowfall of 15.5" or so in Naugatuck, which was about double what I was expecting to get...so I was delighted!
I hope all of you have a great week and I'll see you next weekend!!
SP
Thursday, January 4, 2018
1/4- The Blizzard of '18
Good Thursday all-
A BLIZZARD WARNING is up for New London, New Haven, and Middlesex Counties. Everyone else is under a WINTER STORM WARNING.
So begins Blizzard Brody, and it'll really come down fast throughout the day today. I still like my statewide 7-14" forecast, but I think I may be a bit too low on the high end- an 8-16" may work a bit better especially in central areas, where the heaviest banding appears likely.
Snow has begun, and will be coming down heavily until around 4 PM, with lighter snow and flurries lasting well into the evening. As for school impacts, all schools in the state are CLOSED COMPLETELY today. Tomorrow is a much more difficult forecast. In areas where there are about 7"...at best a delay is likely, whereas areas where 14" occur, schools could well be CLOSED again tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see as this major storm hits our state. Be warm.
Also, a WIND CHILL WATCH is up for northern CT, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see that get expanded to the shoreline- wind chill values likely will be around -30 tomorrow night!
My flight to Texas for later tonight was cancelled, and I'm now leaving on Sunday. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this position!
A BLIZZARD WARNING is up for New London, New Haven, and Middlesex Counties. Everyone else is under a WINTER STORM WARNING.
So begins Blizzard Brody, and it'll really come down fast throughout the day today. I still like my statewide 7-14" forecast, but I think I may be a bit too low on the high end- an 8-16" may work a bit better especially in central areas, where the heaviest banding appears likely.
Snow has begun, and will be coming down heavily until around 4 PM, with lighter snow and flurries lasting well into the evening. As for school impacts, all schools in the state are CLOSED COMPLETELY today. Tomorrow is a much more difficult forecast. In areas where there are about 7"...at best a delay is likely, whereas areas where 14" occur, schools could well be CLOSED again tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see as this major storm hits our state. Be warm.
Also, a WIND CHILL WATCH is up for northern CT, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see that get expanded to the shoreline- wind chill values likely will be around -30 tomorrow night!
My flight to Texas for later tonight was cancelled, and I'm now leaving on Sunday. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this position!
Wednesday, January 3, 2018
1/3- Major Snowstorm Tomorrow
Good Wednesday all-
All of Connecticut is under a WINTER STORM WARNING. Do not be surprised, however, if these become BLIZZARD WARNINGS.
A major nor'easter is on the way to New England as a very strong area of low pressure will pass just barely east of the 40/70 benchmark. This is a highly complex forecast, but I am fairly confident in forecasting 7-14" of snow for the entire state, with the highest amounts in the eastern half, and the lowest amounts in extreme western areas. Also of concern will be the wind, which is likely to gust to 40mph inland and 50mph on the shore. This could lead to some isolated power outages, and that'll be miserable as we head into a weekend where overnight lows will be around minus 10 degrees. Yeah...ouch.
Due to slight track variations, the difference between who gets 7" and who gets 14" will not be known until tomorrow during the system. It's certainly possible someone gets a bit more than 14"- I wouldn't be surprised if the storm jackpot was around 20"- but I do not have high confidence that the area will be in Connecticut- in fact, I think it's unlikely (granted, not impossible!).
Stay safe & warm tonight. I'll update in the morning. If you get the chance to look at a satellite image tomorrow- DO IT. You will not be disappointed- this is a beautiful, powerful storm that shows exactly the beauty and strength that mother nature has.
All of Connecticut is under a WINTER STORM WARNING. Do not be surprised, however, if these become BLIZZARD WARNINGS.
A major nor'easter is on the way to New England as a very strong area of low pressure will pass just barely east of the 40/70 benchmark. This is a highly complex forecast, but I am fairly confident in forecasting 7-14" of snow for the entire state, with the highest amounts in the eastern half, and the lowest amounts in extreme western areas. Also of concern will be the wind, which is likely to gust to 40mph inland and 50mph on the shore. This could lead to some isolated power outages, and that'll be miserable as we head into a weekend where overnight lows will be around minus 10 degrees. Yeah...ouch.
Due to slight track variations, the difference between who gets 7" and who gets 14" will not be known until tomorrow during the system. It's certainly possible someone gets a bit more than 14"- I wouldn't be surprised if the storm jackpot was around 20"- but I do not have high confidence that the area will be in Connecticut- in fact, I think it's unlikely (granted, not impossible!).
Stay safe & warm tonight. I'll update in the morning. If you get the chance to look at a satellite image tomorrow- DO IT. You will not be disappointed- this is a beautiful, powerful storm that shows exactly the beauty and strength that mother nature has.
Monday, January 1, 2018
1/1/2018- Happy New Year...with snow
Good Monday all-
HAPPY 2018!
Well, this is quite a start isn't it...yet again, temperatures are near zero this morning, and in some cases slightly below that mark, and we are going to have freezing cold conditions throughout the day...and we'll do it all over again tonight, with temperatures around -5 overnight tonight. Highs today will likely be stuck in the mid-teens, but thankfully tomorrow should be quite a bit warmer.
We do have to watch Thursday very, very carefully. A coastal storm of likely historic proportions will develop along the east coast, and it could either be a direct hit or a narrow miss. A direct hit from this would be bad. I mean really, really, bad. You don't want it unless you are a die hard snow lover...trust me. Even a sideswipe, which is what many models are currently indicating, could be enough to name the storm Brody...we'll have to see. I'm attempting to fly out on Friday morning but...we'll have to see exactly what happens with this system as it tries to really mess up my plans :(
I'll definitely keep you posted on the Thursday threat as we move through the week and we get closer. We should have a much better idea what's going on by tomorrow morning at this time.
HAPPY 2018!
Well, this is quite a start isn't it...yet again, temperatures are near zero this morning, and in some cases slightly below that mark, and we are going to have freezing cold conditions throughout the day...and we'll do it all over again tonight, with temperatures around -5 overnight tonight. Highs today will likely be stuck in the mid-teens, but thankfully tomorrow should be quite a bit warmer.
We do have to watch Thursday very, very carefully. A coastal storm of likely historic proportions will develop along the east coast, and it could either be a direct hit or a narrow miss. A direct hit from this would be bad. I mean really, really, bad. You don't want it unless you are a die hard snow lover...trust me. Even a sideswipe, which is what many models are currently indicating, could be enough to name the storm Brody...we'll have to see. I'm attempting to fly out on Friday morning but...we'll have to see exactly what happens with this system as it tries to really mess up my plans :(
I'll definitely keep you posted on the Thursday threat as we move through the week and we get closer. We should have a much better idea what's going on by tomorrow morning at this time.
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