Good Monday all-
This week is going to be unbearably hot...at least that'll be the storyline today. Temperatures will be right around 90 from today until Friday, with oppressive humidity as well! Yikes! Thursday night, thankfully, we clear the heat with a round of thunderstorms before leading into a very nice looking weekend and beyond. There's really not much to talk about today!
In the Atlantic- Hurricane Fred has become the first hurricane ever to directly hit Cape Verde, and when any storm achieves something that no storm in over 170 years has done, you know you're amazingly lucky to see it. It will continue to move through those islands today before weakening and eventually dying in the central Atlantic posing no other threat to land. On the positive side, there's no sign of Grace anytime in the near future.
In the Pacific- Hurricane Jimena is nearing Category 5 intensity, but it poses no threat to land whatsoever (fortunately). Additionally, Hurricane Ignacio is passing well east of Hawaii, but again poses no threat to anyone.
Today is the 500th post on this blog- I thank you for reading this for the last year and a half- it's really fun for me as well!
Today is also the final day of meteorological summer, which I will have a recap of tomorrow.
Today in weather history- August 31, 1954- Hurricane Carol becomes the strongest hurricane to make a Connecticut landfall since 1938, striking the state as a high-end category 2, packing 105mph winds, and doing severe wind damage and flooding to the state and surrounding areas. By comparison, Sandy's peak wind gust in CT was about 85mph. Ouch!
Monday, August 31, 2015
Friday, August 28, 2015
8/28- Zzz
HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-
Today is going to be beautiful, and there's no need to change the forecast I put down yesterday, so I won't. The only truly interesting weather story for us right now is Tropical Storm Erika, which is going to hit the Dominican Republic this morning as a Tropical Storm. If it survives, anything could happen. The official forecast path from the NHC shoots it basically straight up the Florida Peninsula, but it could still miss Florida to either the west or the east realistically. That sets up extreme uncertainty...so we'll just have to see if Erika even lives through it's close encounter of the Hispanola kind.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic...don't expect new development
In the Pacific- Jimena has become a hurricane, and will probably become a major hurricane but it will not pose a threat to land. Ignacio, however, has an outside chance of getting near Hawaii, but it's more likely to pass just east of the islands.
Today in weather history- August 28, 2011- Hurricane Irene makes its' final landfall in New Jersey, but the damage stretches from North Carolina to Vermont, and clobbers us here in Connecticut with 60mph winds and big storm surge, wiping out a large area of the East Haven shoreline and establishing a record number of power outages (though that record would fall just two months later thanks to Winter Storm Alfred).
Thursday, August 27, 2015
8/27- Nothing going on
Good Thursday all-
Well, honestly there's nothing to talk about for Connecticut weather. There is no chance of rain for at least the next week, which is bad for the plants, but good because the high pressure over us causing this weather *should* allow Hurricane Erika to escape to our south...granted there's still time for things to change, and we should cerntainly keep our eyes on it, but it's going to be tough to bust the ridge- it's best chance to get to the northeast is probably if it stalls in the Bahamas giving time for the ridge to break down and letting it sneak north. That said, nothing is impossible. What does the weatehr look like here for the next week? Simple- sunny and 80s.
In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Erika has begun it's intensification, as it now has winds of 50mph as it moves through the Antilles and towards Puerto Rico. The storm should generally continue westward until Monday, but then the track of Erika is hugely uncertain and the entire east coast remains in play, with the Carolinas being at the greatest risk.
In the Pacific- Hurricane Ignacio is intensifying rapidly as it enters the Central Pacific basin, and should become a major hurricane as it generally heads towards Hawaii, who should keep an eye on it. Additionally, Tropical Storm Jimena has formed and it too will likely attain major hurricane status, but it poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 27, 1883- Mt. Krakatoa erupts incredibly violently in the west indies, causing a shockwave that literally registers on every barograph on the planet. The eruption causes 125ft waves, as well as a volcanic winter- the Earth's average temperature was decreased by one degree until 1888.
Keep an eye on Erika. The paths are all over the place, and it'll be fun to see if it's Florida, the Carolinas, the fish, or someone else who ends up getting hit by what will be a very powerful hurricane.
Well, honestly there's nothing to talk about for Connecticut weather. There is no chance of rain for at least the next week, which is bad for the plants, but good because the high pressure over us causing this weather *should* allow Hurricane Erika to escape to our south...granted there's still time for things to change, and we should cerntainly keep our eyes on it, but it's going to be tough to bust the ridge- it's best chance to get to the northeast is probably if it stalls in the Bahamas giving time for the ridge to break down and letting it sneak north. That said, nothing is impossible. What does the weatehr look like here for the next week? Simple- sunny and 80s.
In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Erika has begun it's intensification, as it now has winds of 50mph as it moves through the Antilles and towards Puerto Rico. The storm should generally continue westward until Monday, but then the track of Erika is hugely uncertain and the entire east coast remains in play, with the Carolinas being at the greatest risk.
In the Pacific- Hurricane Ignacio is intensifying rapidly as it enters the Central Pacific basin, and should become a major hurricane as it generally heads towards Hawaii, who should keep an eye on it. Additionally, Tropical Storm Jimena has formed and it too will likely attain major hurricane status, but it poses no threat to land.
Today in weather history- August 27, 1883- Mt. Krakatoa erupts incredibly violently in the west indies, causing a shockwave that literally registers on every barograph on the planet. The eruption causes 125ft waves, as well as a volcanic winter- the Earth's average temperature was decreased by one degree until 1888.
Keep an eye on Erika. The paths are all over the place, and it'll be fun to see if it's Florida, the Carolinas, the fish, or someone else who ends up getting hit by what will be a very powerful hurricane.
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
8/26- Watching Erika...quiet weather week
Good Wednesday all-
Today is going to be simply one of (if not the) best days of the year as temperatures will struggle to reach 80--with very little humidity. I have no doubt my temperature here is in the 50s...which feels really nice! The good (or bad) news is that there's no precipitation likely in the next week or so either, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s doing it for temperatures until Monday, when we start a climb back towards hot and humid weather.
In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Erika gave forecasters a fright overnight by nearly dying in the east Caribbean...but it's regained it's former strength this morning and will survive. The question now turns to track, and it seems South Florida is the place for the time being...but even if it hits there, it's possible the storm exits the coast again without losing much strength at all. It's going to be interesting for the entire east coast...so let's just see what happens.
In the Pacific- There has been no change since yesterday.
Today in weather history- August 26, 1992- Hurricane Andrew makes its' final landfall in Louisiana at category 3 hurricane, before moving inland and rather quickly dying out, but not before becoming just the third category 5 US landfall in history upon it's landfall in Homestead, FL two days prior--it remains the most recent one to do so
Today is going to be simply one of (if not the) best days of the year as temperatures will struggle to reach 80--with very little humidity. I have no doubt my temperature here is in the 50s...which feels really nice! The good (or bad) news is that there's no precipitation likely in the next week or so either, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s doing it for temperatures until Monday, when we start a climb back towards hot and humid weather.
In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Erika gave forecasters a fright overnight by nearly dying in the east Caribbean...but it's regained it's former strength this morning and will survive. The question now turns to track, and it seems South Florida is the place for the time being...but even if it hits there, it's possible the storm exits the coast again without losing much strength at all. It's going to be interesting for the entire east coast...so let's just see what happens.
In the Pacific- There has been no change since yesterday.
Today in weather history- August 26, 1992- Hurricane Andrew makes its' final landfall in Louisiana at category 3 hurricane, before moving inland and rather quickly dying out, but not before becoming just the third category 5 US landfall in history upon it's landfall in Homestead, FL two days prior--it remains the most recent one to do so
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
8/25- Severe weather today--tropical trouble?
Good Tuesday all-
Today is going to be a rather miserable day as it is going to feature severe weather. The SPC has placed us under a MARGINAL risk of severe weather, with which I'm inclined to agree. The biggest threats today will be small hail and flooding rains, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either. The good news? This is a cold front that will send our temperatures plummeting to the ground, and we may not even reach 80 tomorrow. The weekend looks great at the moment- highs in the low to mid 80s and bright sunshine on both days. Beyond that, though, all eyes will turn to Tropical Storm Erika...see below.
In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Erika has formed in the Atlantic very near where Hurricane Danny was a few days ago...but unlike him, Erika should actually strengthen as it continues westward. By 5 days, we're probably going to be looking at category 2 hurricane Erika sitting in the Bahamas and moving north. This means it poses a threat to New England...but it could also go out to sea (many models are showing this). I think there's about a 25% chance of tropical cyclone conditions in Connecticut next week at this time...so a storm watch is only 5% away. If trends on the models continue...a storm watch could be issued as soon as tonight or tomorrow morning. Otherwise, no development is expected.
In the Pacific- One of the lows discussed yesterday has become TD 12-E, and it will probably become Tropical Storm (and eventually Hurricane) Ignacio, but it poses no threat to land. Elsewhere, Hurricane Loke passed through the Hermes and Pearl Atoll yesterday with 75mph winds, but it now poses no threat to any land as it spins in the north Pacific.
Today in weather history- August 25, 2005- Tropical Storm Katrina strengthens into Hurricane Katrina for the first time, making landfall in Fort Lauderdale, FL with 85mph sustained winds. The storm would weaken back to a tropical storm as it crossed FL, but then rapidly intensified in the Gulf and the rest, as they say, is history.
I leave you by urging you to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Erika through the day today. It could be a very close call for the entire coast...
Today is going to be a rather miserable day as it is going to feature severe weather. The SPC has placed us under a MARGINAL risk of severe weather, with which I'm inclined to agree. The biggest threats today will be small hail and flooding rains, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out either. The good news? This is a cold front that will send our temperatures plummeting to the ground, and we may not even reach 80 tomorrow. The weekend looks great at the moment- highs in the low to mid 80s and bright sunshine on both days. Beyond that, though, all eyes will turn to Tropical Storm Erika...see below.
In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Erika has formed in the Atlantic very near where Hurricane Danny was a few days ago...but unlike him, Erika should actually strengthen as it continues westward. By 5 days, we're probably going to be looking at category 2 hurricane Erika sitting in the Bahamas and moving north. This means it poses a threat to New England...but it could also go out to sea (many models are showing this). I think there's about a 25% chance of tropical cyclone conditions in Connecticut next week at this time...so a storm watch is only 5% away. If trends on the models continue...a storm watch could be issued as soon as tonight or tomorrow morning. Otherwise, no development is expected.
In the Pacific- One of the lows discussed yesterday has become TD 12-E, and it will probably become Tropical Storm (and eventually Hurricane) Ignacio, but it poses no threat to land. Elsewhere, Hurricane Loke passed through the Hermes and Pearl Atoll yesterday with 75mph winds, but it now poses no threat to any land as it spins in the north Pacific.
Today in weather history- August 25, 2005- Tropical Storm Katrina strengthens into Hurricane Katrina for the first time, making landfall in Fort Lauderdale, FL with 85mph sustained winds. The storm would weaken back to a tropical storm as it crossed FL, but then rapidly intensified in the Gulf and the rest, as they say, is history.
I leave you by urging you to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Erika through the day today. It could be a very close call for the entire coast...
Monday, August 24, 2015
8/24- Beautiful last week off
Good Monday all-
Today is going to be nice, with highs in the mid 80s with scattered afternoon thunderstorms but nothing that will be too big of a deal. Tomorrow, however, a cold front will move through New England and it could produce severe weather in the evening hours- the SPC has placed all of CT under a MARGINAL risk of severe weather, so it's certainly worth watching. Otherwise, the rest of the week looks incredible with temperatures in the high 70s!? and low 80s with generally partly sunny skies each day.
In the Atlantic- Danny is barely holding on to Tropical Storm strength in the Caribbean, and it is expected to die out later today due to strong wind shear. Unfortunately, another low just behind Danny is probably about to become Tropical Storm Erika, and it's going to travel in much the same areas that Danny went, so the northern Leeward Islands are probably going to get hit with two tropical storms in about a 6 day period...ouch
In the Pacific- Tropical Depression Kilo gave Hawaii a scare for a while...but it tracked far enough west to bail them out, but Tropical Storm Loke is a bit more of a concern- there's hurricane warnings up for the Pearl and Hermes Atolls, located just west of Hawaii. This storm could also pose a threat to...Alaska's Aleutian Islands by the end of the week. Additionally, two lows in the eastern Pacific are likely to develop before the end of the week.
Today in weather history- August 24, 1906- A cloudburst somehow manages to dump Guinea, VA with 9 inches of rain in 40 minutes- a rainfall rate of 13.5"/hr. It's not the hardest rain ever recorded though- that goes to Barot, Guadeloupe, who once received 1.5" of rain...in one minute
Today is going to be nice, with highs in the mid 80s with scattered afternoon thunderstorms but nothing that will be too big of a deal. Tomorrow, however, a cold front will move through New England and it could produce severe weather in the evening hours- the SPC has placed all of CT under a MARGINAL risk of severe weather, so it's certainly worth watching. Otherwise, the rest of the week looks incredible with temperatures in the high 70s!? and low 80s with generally partly sunny skies each day.
In the Atlantic- Danny is barely holding on to Tropical Storm strength in the Caribbean, and it is expected to die out later today due to strong wind shear. Unfortunately, another low just behind Danny is probably about to become Tropical Storm Erika, and it's going to travel in much the same areas that Danny went, so the northern Leeward Islands are probably going to get hit with two tropical storms in about a 6 day period...ouch
In the Pacific- Tropical Depression Kilo gave Hawaii a scare for a while...but it tracked far enough west to bail them out, but Tropical Storm Loke is a bit more of a concern- there's hurricane warnings up for the Pearl and Hermes Atolls, located just west of Hawaii. This storm could also pose a threat to...Alaska's Aleutian Islands by the end of the week. Additionally, two lows in the eastern Pacific are likely to develop before the end of the week.
Today in weather history- August 24, 1906- A cloudburst somehow manages to dump Guinea, VA with 9 inches of rain in 40 minutes- a rainfall rate of 13.5"/hr. It's not the hardest rain ever recorded though- that goes to Barot, Guadeloupe, who once received 1.5" of rain...in one minute
Sunday, August 23, 2015
It didn't make it
Hey everyone-
I'm cancelling the storm watch for Danny because it has died a death in the Caribbean, which we kinda knew could happen. The storm weakened much faster than I thought it would, and it therefore is taking a more southern track through Hispanola, which is going to kill the thing in all likelihood. That said, Erika could be right behind, but let's wait and see before saying anything for sure!
My full blog resumes tomorrow from its' weekend state- see you then!
I'm cancelling the storm watch for Danny because it has died a death in the Caribbean, which we kinda knew could happen. The storm weakened much faster than I thought it would, and it therefore is taking a more southern track through Hispanola, which is going to kill the thing in all likelihood. That said, Erika could be right behind, but let's wait and see before saying anything for sure!
My full blog resumes tomorrow from its' weekend state- see you then!
Saturday, August 22, 2015
STORM WATCH- Danny Threatening New England
Hey everyone- it's Saturday but a disturbing trend in the models has now lead me to believe there is a present significant threat that we could face from Hurricane Danny, though the severity remains to be seen- many options are still on the table.
Let's start with what is currently out there. Danny weakened as expected to a category 1 today, and it will likely become a tropical storm later tonight, and continue weakening slowly through much of tomorrow and Monday. By Tuesday, however, the storm will, and this is key, just miss Hispanola to the north. Along with much more favorable conditions...this should allow Danny to restrengthen somewhat as it moves north into the Bahamas. Most of the reliable tropical models at this time forecast a strong category 1 or weak cat 2 in the Bahamas around Wednesday, 4-5 days from now. At that time, a trough in the central US is going to get the storm, and begin to drag it to the north...and then the time range goes beyond the models' ability to forecast. This, however, puts us in a vulnerable position. Here in New England, any storm in the Bahamas with a northward movement is a big concern. Let's compare the model forecast of Danny and the actual path of Irene:
^Each line is a forecast by a model. Most of these models indicate about 90-100mph winds at the end of their forecast.
As you can see, it's pretty scary in that the storm now is stronger and at about the same place, and on about the same track, as Irene. Am I forecasting a repeat? Not yet.
That said, it's enough to warrant a STORM WATCH, because I now believe there is over a 20% chance of tropical cyclone conditions in Connecticut about a week from now.
Please stay vigilant and have your hurricane plans ready in case Danny, or any other storm, decides to pay us a visit. Things could be interesting two weeks from now with a storm named Erika as well. The peak of hurricane season is still three weeks away.
Stay vigilant, and you can be sure I will post more on this potential coastal nightmare tomorrow as new models come in.
Let's start with what is currently out there. Danny weakened as expected to a category 1 today, and it will likely become a tropical storm later tonight, and continue weakening slowly through much of tomorrow and Monday. By Tuesday, however, the storm will, and this is key, just miss Hispanola to the north. Along with much more favorable conditions...this should allow Danny to restrengthen somewhat as it moves north into the Bahamas. Most of the reliable tropical models at this time forecast a strong category 1 or weak cat 2 in the Bahamas around Wednesday, 4-5 days from now. At that time, a trough in the central US is going to get the storm, and begin to drag it to the north...and then the time range goes beyond the models' ability to forecast. This, however, puts us in a vulnerable position. Here in New England, any storm in the Bahamas with a northward movement is a big concern. Let's compare the model forecast of Danny and the actual path of Irene:
^Each line is a forecast by a model. Most of these models indicate about 90-100mph winds at the end of their forecast.
As you can see, it's pretty scary in that the storm now is stronger and at about the same place, and on about the same track, as Irene. Am I forecasting a repeat? Not yet.
That said, it's enough to warrant a STORM WATCH, because I now believe there is over a 20% chance of tropical cyclone conditions in Connecticut about a week from now.
Please stay vigilant and have your hurricane plans ready in case Danny, or any other storm, decides to pay us a visit. Things could be interesting two weeks from now with a storm named Erika as well. The peak of hurricane season is still three weeks away.
Stay vigilant, and you can be sure I will post more on this potential coastal nightmare tomorrow as new models come in.
Friday, August 21, 2015
Update...
Hello everyone-
I just want to update you on the path of Major Hurricane Danny tonight.
There are many factors in play here, but concern about an east coast impact is getting a tad higher. The path is quite similar to Irene. The real question is whether the storm will survive through some strong shear this weekend. By Monday...if there is still a storm of some kind...next week will be very interesting indeed here in southern New England. Keep an eye on it is all I'm saying, but this could be pretty close.
I just want to update you on the path of Major Hurricane Danny tonight.
There are many factors in play here, but concern about an east coast impact is getting a tad higher. The path is quite similar to Irene. The real question is whether the storm will survive through some strong shear this weekend. By Monday...if there is still a storm of some kind...next week will be very interesting indeed here in southern New England. Keep an eye on it is all I'm saying, but this could be pretty close.
8/21- Double Tropical Trouble
HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!
Today is going to be quite miserable, I'm afraid. It's likely going to rain for large portions of the day, and I expect widespread 0.5-1.5" totals with locally higher amounts where the big thunderstorms decide to sit down for a while. The weather for the weekend, honestly, does not look great at the moment. The cold front giving us our bad weather today is going to interact with what will probably be Subtropical Storm Erika, and while the cold front will spare us a direct hit from a tropical storm...it will add a fair bit more rain, especially on Sunday. The majority of next week looks cool and rather pleasant.
In the Atlantic- Danny rapidly intensified the last day and a half, and is now a very high end category 1 hurricane, the first of the season, and will likely become a category 2. The majority of track guidance now takes Danny just to the north of Hispanola and Puerto Rico and into the Bahamas. That would be quite concerning for us here in New England...but as no model has shown a direct hit yet, I'd consider it unlikely. Additionally, in addition to the likely formation of Erika this weekend as I discussed above, two tropical waves off Africa could become Fred and Grace next week.
In the Pacific- Two lows in the East Pacific could easily develop next week...but they are no threat to land. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Tropical Depression 3-C in the central Pacific, which will likely become a hurricane and come dangerously close to Kauai Island. Let's hope they dodge it as it will be a strong storm by then...
Today in weather history- August 21, 2007- Hurricane Dean makes landfall in Belize as a category 5, an extreme rarity. It was the first category 5 landfall since 2004...but just the second in 16 years (prior to 2004, the last one was 1992's Hurricane Andrew). Amazingly, Hurricane Felix would make landfall as a category 5 just a few weeks later. Also remarkable? Felix remains the most recent category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin.
Today is going to be quite miserable, I'm afraid. It's likely going to rain for large portions of the day, and I expect widespread 0.5-1.5" totals with locally higher amounts where the big thunderstorms decide to sit down for a while. The weather for the weekend, honestly, does not look great at the moment. The cold front giving us our bad weather today is going to interact with what will probably be Subtropical Storm Erika, and while the cold front will spare us a direct hit from a tropical storm...it will add a fair bit more rain, especially on Sunday. The majority of next week looks cool and rather pleasant.
In the Atlantic- Danny rapidly intensified the last day and a half, and is now a very high end category 1 hurricane, the first of the season, and will likely become a category 2. The majority of track guidance now takes Danny just to the north of Hispanola and Puerto Rico and into the Bahamas. That would be quite concerning for us here in New England...but as no model has shown a direct hit yet, I'd consider it unlikely. Additionally, in addition to the likely formation of Erika this weekend as I discussed above, two tropical waves off Africa could become Fred and Grace next week.
In the Pacific- Two lows in the East Pacific could easily develop next week...but they are no threat to land. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Tropical Depression 3-C in the central Pacific, which will likely become a hurricane and come dangerously close to Kauai Island. Let's hope they dodge it as it will be a strong storm by then...
Today in weather history- August 21, 2007- Hurricane Dean makes landfall in Belize as a category 5, an extreme rarity. It was the first category 5 landfall since 2004...but just the second in 16 years (prior to 2004, the last one was 1992's Hurricane Andrew). Amazingly, Hurricane Felix would make landfall as a category 5 just a few weeks later. Also remarkable? Felix remains the most recent category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
8/20- Cooler and Danny watching
Good Thursday all-
Today is going to be much better as the heat finally breaks up more than a bit...highs today will only be in the mid-80s, and it'll get even cooler tomorrow...some areas may not even reach 80...but the price is rather significant rainfall, especially west of, say, Meriden or so. Saturday and Sunday are not looking great at the moment- thunderstorms will likely be around both days and, although it won't be a washout, there will be more rain than we'd like. At least we are not on Cape Cod, though, who will have to keep a close eye on what could be Subtropical Storm Erika spinning off the northeast coast. Otherwise...the forecast is basically the same as yesterday.
In the Atlantic- Other than Erika, which I discussed above, Tropical Storm Danny is basically the same as it was yesterday...except it's now forecasted to be much weaker than before...but that may increase the risk to the US...but let's just wait and see what happens.
In the Pacific- A low near Hawaii could become a Tropical Storm eventually, but I don't really care much about central Pacific storms, which use a different name list than the eastern part of the basin because they rarely effect land. That said...this one has a chance of ending up in Hawaii...so it's worth mentioning.
Today in weather history- August 20, 1991- New England begins recovery efforts after Hurricane Bob hit the previous day, hitting Massachusetts particularly hard, causing $1 billion in damage and causing the coast of Cape Cod to erode some fifty feet, as well as wind gusts as high as 125mph!
Today is going to be much better as the heat finally breaks up more than a bit...highs today will only be in the mid-80s, and it'll get even cooler tomorrow...some areas may not even reach 80...but the price is rather significant rainfall, especially west of, say, Meriden or so. Saturday and Sunday are not looking great at the moment- thunderstorms will likely be around both days and, although it won't be a washout, there will be more rain than we'd like. At least we are not on Cape Cod, though, who will have to keep a close eye on what could be Subtropical Storm Erika spinning off the northeast coast. Otherwise...the forecast is basically the same as yesterday.
In the Atlantic- Other than Erika, which I discussed above, Tropical Storm Danny is basically the same as it was yesterday...except it's now forecasted to be much weaker than before...but that may increase the risk to the US...but let's just wait and see what happens.
In the Pacific- A low near Hawaii could become a Tropical Storm eventually, but I don't really care much about central Pacific storms, which use a different name list than the eastern part of the basin because they rarely effect land. That said...this one has a chance of ending up in Hawaii...so it's worth mentioning.
Today in weather history- August 20, 1991- New England begins recovery efforts after Hurricane Bob hit the previous day, hitting Massachusetts particularly hard, causing $1 billion in damage and causing the coast of Cape Cod to erode some fifty feet, as well as wind gusts as high as 125mph!
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
8/19- Tropics awaken
Good Wednesday all-
Today is going to be a beautiful--albeit hot--day, with temps in the low 90s and (for the most part) sunny skies. Unfortunately, though, a cold front is going to be moving through the region tonight, causing showers and storms. I don't think they'll be severe, and we'll duplicate this tomorrow before Friday looks like a real soaker as the front stalls, essentially, right over Connecticut. The weekend looks highly unsettled right now and, while neither Saturday nor Sunday will be a washout, there will be scattered showers and storms on both days. The main story of next week appears to be the exact track of a new tropical system- likely to be named Tropical Storm Erika- as it may well pose a threat to (especially) Cape Cod...and that's too close for comfort, so we'll see what happens. I do not believe it is likely that our region experiences tropical storm conditions at this time.
In the Atlantic- Aside from the aforementioned area near Bermuda, Tropical Storm Danny did indeed form yesterday, and today it features 50mph winds roughly halfway between the Cape Verdes and the lesser Antilles. The storm will likely become Hurricane Danny shortly, then move through the northern part of the Antilles and Puerto Rico before eventually turning north around a ridge...but as it's unclear where that will happen, any and all options remain in play for this one.
Today in weather history- August 19, 1788- A very small but intense hurricane manages to hit New England, causing rather severe damage from New Jersey to Maine...but not much harm is done, as the region was not nearly as populated then as it is now. Should this happen today...well let's just say it would really not be good.
Today is going to be a beautiful--albeit hot--day, with temps in the low 90s and (for the most part) sunny skies. Unfortunately, though, a cold front is going to be moving through the region tonight, causing showers and storms. I don't think they'll be severe, and we'll duplicate this tomorrow before Friday looks like a real soaker as the front stalls, essentially, right over Connecticut. The weekend looks highly unsettled right now and, while neither Saturday nor Sunday will be a washout, there will be scattered showers and storms on both days. The main story of next week appears to be the exact track of a new tropical system- likely to be named Tropical Storm Erika- as it may well pose a threat to (especially) Cape Cod...and that's too close for comfort, so we'll see what happens. I do not believe it is likely that our region experiences tropical storm conditions at this time.
In the Atlantic- Aside from the aforementioned area near Bermuda, Tropical Storm Danny did indeed form yesterday, and today it features 50mph winds roughly halfway between the Cape Verdes and the lesser Antilles. The storm will likely become Hurricane Danny shortly, then move through the northern part of the Antilles and Puerto Rico before eventually turning north around a ridge...but as it's unclear where that will happen, any and all options remain in play for this one.
Today in weather history- August 19, 1788- A very small but intense hurricane manages to hit New England, causing rather severe damage from New Jersey to Maine...but not much harm is done, as the region was not nearly as populated then as it is now. Should this happen today...well let's just say it would really not be good.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
8/18- I return, but not the best forecast
Good Tuesday all-
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT has been issued for everyone except Windham County
Today is going to be a miserably hot day once again, with highs in the 90s except on the immediate shoreline. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon--and tomorrow afternoon--and Thursday afternoon. Tomorrow looks largely the same as today...but Friday looks to be a total loss as it's basically going to pour all day thanks to a cold front- the heaviest should last from around 3 to midnight. Fortunately, this will break the heat as temps will struggle to reach the mid 80s after that for the foreseeable future.
The Old Farmer's Almanac has issued their forecast for this winter, and it's not good if you don't like snow as they're going for a record-breaking winter for both cold and snow. Historically, the OFA is about the same accuracy as a random guess for specific days...but you'll often find, in my opinion, their seasonal outlooks are not bad whatsoever. They pretty much nailed it last year...so we'll see what happens!
In the Atlantic- We're finally heating up as would be expected in mid-August. A low near the Cape Verde Islands will likely become Tropical Storm Danny today or tomorrow...and another near Bermuda could shortly follow with Erika this weekend. That said...Danny will be a much more significant threat to the US based on it's location and history as a Cape Verde type storm. It's far too early to know much of anything, unfortunately, so it's all guesswork for the moment...
In the Pacific- We've spent many, many days this year watching the Pacific for development with baited breath. Today is not one of them (no development anytime soon)
Today in weather history- August 18, 1983- Hurricane Alicia clobbers Texas packing 130 mph wind, passing over Galveston Island and becoming one of the costliest hurricanes on record, costing $2.6 billion, killing 13, and injuring 1800 more.
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT has been issued for everyone except Windham County
Today is going to be a miserably hot day once again, with highs in the 90s except on the immediate shoreline. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon--and tomorrow afternoon--and Thursday afternoon. Tomorrow looks largely the same as today...but Friday looks to be a total loss as it's basically going to pour all day thanks to a cold front- the heaviest should last from around 3 to midnight. Fortunately, this will break the heat as temps will struggle to reach the mid 80s after that for the foreseeable future.
The Old Farmer's Almanac has issued their forecast for this winter, and it's not good if you don't like snow as they're going for a record-breaking winter for both cold and snow. Historically, the OFA is about the same accuracy as a random guess for specific days...but you'll often find, in my opinion, their seasonal outlooks are not bad whatsoever. They pretty much nailed it last year...so we'll see what happens!
In the Atlantic- We're finally heating up as would be expected in mid-August. A low near the Cape Verde Islands will likely become Tropical Storm Danny today or tomorrow...and another near Bermuda could shortly follow with Erika this weekend. That said...Danny will be a much more significant threat to the US based on it's location and history as a Cape Verde type storm. It's far too early to know much of anything, unfortunately, so it's all guesswork for the moment...
In the Pacific- We've spent many, many days this year watching the Pacific for development with baited breath. Today is not one of them (no development anytime soon)
Today in weather history- August 18, 1983- Hurricane Alicia clobbers Texas packing 130 mph wind, passing over Galveston Island and becoming one of the costliest hurricanes on record, costing $2.6 billion, killing 13, and injuring 1800 more.
Monday, August 17, 2015
Hey!
Alright-
I'm writing to inform you my normal posting schedule will resume tomorrow, August 18th. Thank you for bearing with me as my life has moved on recently. My new home in Naugatuck is beautiful, and I'm looking forward to the new challenges that the weather here will bring me...naturally, I'll keep forecasting for the 91 corridor (including New Haven) and the rest of central Connecticut as well!
Tomorrow's post will include a recap of the last few weeks of weather, as well as a look at the Farmer's Almanac outlook for winter 2015-16, as well as my thoughts on general forecast accuracy of said forecasters.
Again, thanks for sticking it out- it's great to be back!
I'm writing to inform you my normal posting schedule will resume tomorrow, August 18th. Thank you for bearing with me as my life has moved on recently. My new home in Naugatuck is beautiful, and I'm looking forward to the new challenges that the weather here will bring me...naturally, I'll keep forecasting for the 91 corridor (including New Haven) and the rest of central Connecticut as well!
Tomorrow's post will include a recap of the last few weeks of weather, as well as a look at the Farmer's Almanac outlook for winter 2015-16, as well as my thoughts on general forecast accuracy of said forecasters.
Again, thanks for sticking it out- it's great to be back!
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