Let's start with what is currently out there. Danny weakened as expected to a category 1 today, and it will likely become a tropical storm later tonight, and continue weakening slowly through much of tomorrow and Monday. By Tuesday, however, the storm will, and this is key, just miss Hispanola to the north. Along with much more favorable conditions...this should allow Danny to restrengthen somewhat as it moves north into the Bahamas. Most of the reliable tropical models at this time forecast a strong category 1 or weak cat 2 in the Bahamas around Wednesday, 4-5 days from now. At that time, a trough in the central US is going to get the storm, and begin to drag it to the north...and then the time range goes beyond the models' ability to forecast. This, however, puts us in a vulnerable position. Here in New England, any storm in the Bahamas with a northward movement is a big concern. Let's compare the model forecast of Danny and the actual path of Irene:
^Each line is a forecast by a model. Most of these models indicate about 90-100mph winds at the end of their forecast.
As you can see, it's pretty scary in that the storm now is stronger and at about the same place, and on about the same track, as Irene. Am I forecasting a repeat? Not yet.
That said, it's enough to warrant a STORM WATCH, because I now believe there is over a 20% chance of tropical cyclone conditions in Connecticut about a week from now.
Please stay vigilant and have your hurricane plans ready in case Danny, or any other storm, decides to pay us a visit. Things could be interesting two weeks from now with a storm named Erika as well. The peak of hurricane season is still three weeks away.
Stay vigilant, and you can be sure I will post more on this potential coastal nightmare tomorrow as new models come in.
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