Friday, August 21, 2015

8/21- Double Tropical Trouble

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!

Today is going to be quite miserable, I'm afraid. It's likely going to rain for large portions of the day, and I expect widespread 0.5-1.5" totals with locally higher amounts where the big thunderstorms decide to sit down for a while. The weather for the weekend, honestly, does not look great at the moment. The cold front giving us our bad weather today is going to interact with what will probably be Subtropical Storm Erika, and while the cold front will spare us a direct hit from a tropical storm...it will add a fair bit more rain, especially on Sunday. The majority of next week looks cool and rather pleasant.

In the Atlantic- Danny rapidly intensified the last day and a half, and is now a very high end category 1 hurricane, the first of the season, and will likely become a category 2. The majority of track guidance now takes Danny just to the north of Hispanola and Puerto Rico and into the Bahamas. That would be quite concerning for us here in New England...but as no model has shown a direct hit yet, I'd consider it unlikely. Additionally, in addition to the likely formation of Erika this weekend as I discussed above, two tropical waves off Africa could become Fred and Grace next week.

In the Pacific- Two lows in the East Pacific could easily develop next week...but they are no threat to land. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Tropical Depression 3-C in the central Pacific, which will likely become a hurricane and come dangerously close to Kauai Island. Let's hope they dodge it as it will be a strong storm by then...

Today in weather history- August 21, 2007- Hurricane Dean makes landfall in Belize as a category 5, an extreme rarity. It was the first category 5 landfall since 2004...but just the second in 16 years (prior to 2004, the last one was 1992's Hurricane Andrew). Amazingly, Hurricane Felix would make landfall as a category 5 just a few weeks later. Also remarkable? Felix remains the most recent category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin.

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