7/29- Wet Today, Great End to July

Happy FRIDAY everyone-

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is up for the immediate shoreline.

Today is going to be absolutely miserable- a total washout in every sense of the word. It's pouring out there right now, and this will continue for several more hours as an off-season nor'easter continues to make its' presence felt throughout the state. This type of event is really quite rare- perhaps once every three years or so- but it happens...so we just have to get through it. The end result will be an average of a bit more than an inch of rain, but some areas could certainly see much more- as much as 4" of rain cannot be ruled out in the heavier thunderstorms. The rain should stop being steady at about 10 this morning, but it will still rain some through the rest of the day with some thunderstorms also possible, though they won't be severe (we have a paltry SEE TEXT risk today). For the weekend, though, it looks fantastic! It will be much cooler than we have been experiencing for much of the last 8 days (it was the longest recorded heat wave in six years(!!!)) and looks not bad from the sky, but some showers & storms are possible on Sunday, but temperatures will be in the 70s on that day, and the 80s on Saturday.

Two systems near the Cape Verde Islands could develop eventually, but it will likely take a while for them to do so due to unfavorable conditions in the central Atlantic. They could both pose big threats to land eventually, but it's way out there, so we have plenty of time to watch! A low in the Pacific is in a race against time to become Tropical Storm Howard before Monday. If it does, it will be the most active July ever recorded in the Pacific basin, but it's going to be close...I'd give it a 50/50 chance.

Today in weather history- July 29, 1905- Rain over our region in the previous days ends up at eleven inches, which is too much for a dam in Bridgeport to contain, causing the city to flood and doing $250,000 in damage (1905 USD)

7/28- Scorcher today, the Cape Verde Season begins?

Good Thursday all-

An AIR QUALITY ALERT is up for all areas along and west of 91, excluding the far northwest hills and a SEE TEXT RISK of severe weather for the entire state.

Today is going to be a miserable day for all involved- blistering heat (the mid to upper 90s) and very sticky humidity. We should get through today dry, but I cannot rule out some very widely scattered thunderstorms in our region. That said, the better chance is tomorrow, when we will experience a pounding and heavy rainstorm in the morning hours. This will not last long, but will drop upwards of one inch of rain in parts of Connecticut, with the greatest amounts falling in the southern third of the state. Happily, this will bring an end to the 90 degree heat- we have highs in the low 80s tomorrow and we will not be seeing 90s again until at least next Wednesday. With the exception of some very light showers on Monday, no precipitation is likely during this time.

The Cape Verde season in the Atlantic may be about to awaken as a low off Africa has a chance to become Tropical Storm Earl in the next few days as it passes into the central tropical Atlantic. That said, the conditions are not overly favorable in that part of the basin, so it may not survive. It's that time of year though, especially as we move into August, and I suspect there may be a fair number of these this year.

Tropical Storm Frank has died, but the Pacific will likely see another tropical cyclone early next week (Howard) that poses no threat to land.

Today in weather history- July 28, 1819- A strong hurricane hits Bay St. Louis and Pass Christian, Mississippi, destroying virtually all of the buildings in both towns, additionally sinking a ship and killing all 39 people on board. This part of the coastline is particularly vulnerable to these storms, as Hurricane Camille, the strongest recorded US landfall, would occur 150 years later.

7/27- Not sure how I missed yesterday...

Good Wednesday all-

First off, I honestly do not know how I forgot to update yesterday...my sincerest apologies!! I'm rather annoyed at myself, but on that note onto the weather!

Today is going to be a real scorcher, I'm afraid. Highs are going to be in the mid-90s and will probably reach beyond that in some places. It wouldn't shock me to see the typically warmer places get to near or at 100 degrees today. Furthermore, there is no risk of rain, which is really, really hard to do on a day that has this kind of warmth, but it just adds to the misery. Have access to an AC and water during the warmest hours of the day today for sure! Tomorrow will be very similar, but there is a risk of thunderstorms in the afternoon, though they will not likely be severe (we have a paltry SEE TEXT risk). Friday looks like it could be a total washout at this time thanks to a coastal low, but plenty of options do remain on the table for that. We should have a much better idea by tomorrow morning in that regard. Temperatures will be knocked down into the 80s by this for the weekend as we say goodbye to July (can you believe it?) and will remain there for the first few days of August.

The Atlantic remains quiet, Georgette has died out, but Frank has strengthened into a hurricane. Additionally, a low way out in the middle of nowhere has some potential to become Tropical Storm Howard. If it does so before Monday, it would break the all time record for most named storms in July ever recorded. It's going to be very, very close.

Today in weather history- July 27, 1943- Flying on a bet, two air force pilots in a single engine plane fly into a hurricane in the Gulf without permission. In doing so, they become the first hurricane hunters, whose data is used regularly in countless advisories and remains to this day perhaps the single most important method of obtaining information from hurricanes in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.

7/25- Stormy & Hot

Good Monday all-

A HEAT ADVISORY is up for my entire forecast area except for Tolland County.

Western CT has a MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER today. The rest of the state has a SEE TEXT risk.

Today is going to be absolutely 100% awful. We're heading into the 90s again today, but this time with high humidity...ack! Thankfully, thunderstorms are likely tonight, and they could be severe, especially in the early evening hours (5-8 or so). The main threats are high wind and hail as these storms will pack quite a punch! As we move forward into the rest of the week, it looks just as bad, unfortunately. Not only will highs be in the 90s (in some cases well into the 90s), but it will be rather humid as well. Thunderstorms are possible every single day beginning on Thursday right through the upcoming weekend, but it is far too early to tell if those will be severe, so in the meantime, just keep your eyes to the skies this evening!


^^^ SPC outlook showing a marginal risk west of I-91 and a see text risk east.

The Atlantic remains quiet, but Tropical Storm Darby has taken a very strange path and has passed right through all the Hawaiian Islands...yikes!!! The system did not turn north as quickly as expected, and HI payed the price. Fortunately, it wasn't particularly strong at the time, and damage appears to have been minimal. Tropical Storm Frank and Hurricane Georgette are also active at this time, but they pose no threat to land at all.

Today in weather history- July 25, 1956- Dense fog near Nantucket, MA causes the ship Andrea Doria to collide with the Stockholm, ultimately sinking the Doria and killing 52 people. Fog, for how unexciting it is to look at and experience, is undoubtedly one of the most dangerous types of weather and must be treated as such by boaters and drivers alike.

7/22- Boiling heat+severe weather= yuck

Happy Friday everyone!

Yesterday I was unable to update due to my annual trip to Yankee Stadium with my dad. The Yanks played absolutely terribly, but I still had a great time!

Anyways, onto the weather. There is a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER for all of Connecticut today right down to the shoreline, which is higher than it was yesterday. This means that strong to severe thunderstorms are very likely, especially in the late afternoon hours. With these storms today, the biggest risk appears to be gusty winds, although I cannot rule out hail and tornadoes either. Tomorrow though the really dangerous heat starts as highs will be in the mid to upper 90s. Someone may get to 100 tomorrow, but I think that's a bit of a long shot. Sunday looks a bit cooler than it did on Wednesday, but still with temps in the low 90s. Monday could be quite interesting indeed depending on the timing of a cold front...we will cross that bridge when we get there, though.


^^ The SPC outlook showing a slight risk of severe weather for the entire state

The Pacific basin is hyperactive at this time. Tropical Storm Darby is about to actually hit Hawaii, part of which is under a Tropical Storm Warning(!!), a very rare occurrence for the island. Additionally, Tropical Storm Estelle is still spinning, but will meet it's demise soon. Tropical Storm Frank has formed right along the Mexican coast near the Baja, and likely will spend its' life paralelling the coast as a hurricane, which will cause some riptide issues along the shoreline. Lastly, Tropical Depression 8-E spun up in the middle of nowhere, and that should become Tropical Storm Georgette later today. If it does, then Darby, Estelle, Frank, and Georgette will all be active in the basin simultaneously- and that is EXTREMELY hard to do for a number of reasons. Thankfully, this appears to be all that will happen in either basin for the time being- no new development is expected.

Today in weather history- July 22, 1987- Barrow, AK (the northernmost point in the US in Alaska) records 1.4" of rain, an all-time record event for the area. Because it is so cold there...it is extremely difficult to get any precip at all in Barrow. They only average 4.75" of rain a year, so they got nearly a third of the annual precipitation at the same time...that's the equivalent of us getting about 15" of rain at once...that would NOT be good.

7/20- July Freezer, but the Warmth is coming

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a chilly day for July- it's in the 40s in parts of northern Connecticut today- that's way below average- and we're going to be below average during the day to, but not that far below. It'll be about 85 today, perhaps a touch cooler, but the best part is there is still barely any humidity to speak of whatsoever, which, apart from being very strange at this time of year, means that it's going to be among the best days all year, so go out and enjoy it! Sadly, though, all good things must come to an end, and this beautiful weather will end Friday, which looks like a potentially extreme severe weather day, so please keep that in mind. In fact, there is already a SLIGHT risk of severe weather. At three days out...this is extraordinarily unusual, especially since these usually go up as time goes on. Thus, I cannot rule out an enhanced or even moderate risk...by comparison, there hasn't been a moderate risk since July 26, 2012...four years ago! Hopefully it doesn't come to that, but you can come here if it does! Tomorrow is the transition day, highs will be about 90 but the humidity will still be low, so not too bad at all. The really oppressive heat begins on Saturday with mid-90s and humidity, followed by high 90s to near 100 degrees on Sunday with humidity. I strongly recommend you stay indoors during the hottest parts of the day on both weekend days...keep your activities in the morning! This will be an interesting few days of weather indeed, so strap in and enjoy the ride!

The Atlantic remains quiet, Darby has left the East Pacific basin and entered the central Pacific and is generally heading towards...but probably east of...Hawaii. Estelle remains just below hurricane intensity, but Frank and Georgette are likely to form in about 5 days. This is a remarkable turnaround from the early parts of the season, and shows no signs of letting up!

Today in weather history- July 20, 1986- Charleston, SC ties their all-time 104 degree record high for the second day in a row(!!). That's difficult but not impossible to believe because if a pattern remains  in the same place for a while...well, that's what can happen!

7/19- A Great Few Days but a Miserable Weekend

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be infinitely better than almost all of the last seven and most of the next. Highs are going to be in the mid 80s, but with virtually no humidity whatsoever, which means it'll feel tremendously cooler than yesterday despite similar temperatures. In fact, I think today and tomorrow is some of the best possible weather for this time of year. It came with a price though- some of the thunderstorms yesterday were extreme with trees falling across the state. For example, a large tree fell on a house in Ansonia...and 10,000 people lost power. If you're one of those who had their house be damaged or have trees down, today is the day to pick it up. By the weekend, we're looking at a serious heat wave with temps in the high 90s to nearly 100 degrees with HIGH HUMIDITY. That means it'll feel like 110...so please please please be careful and stay in the AC for the hottest hours of the weekend. I cannot rule out showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, but it's a long shot and the rest of the week looks dry at this time.

The Atlantic remains quiet, and Darby is about to dissipate as it's down to a 75mph cat 1. Unexpectedly, Estelle actually weakened rapidly yesterday and is barely hanging on at 60mph. The storm is still officially forecasted to become a hurricane tomorrow...but I doubt it personally. Either way, it poses no threat to land. Do note that Darby is heading for Hawaii and it may reach there as a tropical storm, so people on the Big Island in particular want to keep their eyes open.
 



























^^ Projected path of Darby generally heading for Hawaii

Additionally, Tropical Storm Frank is likely to form next week, but it likely will pose a threat to land, so we should focus on that!

Today in weather history- July 19, 1974- A thunderstorm washes out roads in Lake Havasu, AZ, and as it does takes a station wagon with three people inside it 3000 feet downstream, killing all of them.

7/18- Severe Weather Today

Good Monday all-

There is a MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER for all of Connecticut, except far northern Litchfield County, where there is a SLIGHT risk, the next step up.

Today is going to be a pretty miserable and nasty day, with hot and humid weather, followed by strong to severe storms later tonight. These storms could include strong gusty winds...large hail...and tornadoes...so be safe this afternoon and keep your eyes to the skies. Of those three risks, I would believe the strong winds are the biggest threat today, but since I cannot rule the other two out, don't be caught off guard if you are impacted by one of the others. As for temperatures, we are heading to the mid-90s today, with an average of around 93 for most of the state, which will provide fuel for the thunderstorms as a cold front approaches from our west.

By tomorrow, the weather will really cool off by ten degrees, where we drop to the 80s, and greatly reduce the humidity. Of the next 7 days, my pick would be Wednesday, which will feature low 80s and very little mugginess- a rare feat for this time of year. Thursday and Friday will be dry, but resume our 90 degree temperature string. The next chance of precipitation comes on Saturday with some thunderstorms possible, an idea that will be duplicated on Sunday.

No development is expected in the Atlantic anytime soon, and Hurricane Darby has weakened to a category 1 hurricane this weekend, and further weakening is expected. However, Tropical Storm Estelle formed over the weekend and is nearing hurricane intensity, which it will likely achieve later this afternoon. Additionally, a low off the Mexican coast will probably become Tropical Storm Frank this week at some point, and another low has at least some risk of development in the coming days. With this string of storms...we are now just three storms away from the all-time July record for the most named storms in the Pacific...and we have a chance of getting another one or two this week. It could be very close!

Today in weather history- July 18, 1986- A tornado north of Minneapolis stays photogenic for some 30 minutes, and is captured and aired on live TV by the local news. The twister is eventually deemed to have been an F2, featuring winds of about 120mph. Here is a link to that video...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SphbqvD7qSQ

7/15- Hot and Horrid

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-

An AIR QUALITY ALERT is up for the southern four counties of Connecticut, excepting interior Fairfield County.

What a miserable day we have on tap for today!! We're looking at the mid-90s today and have a pretty decent chance of those summer popup showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon hours. The humidity, although it won't be as oppressive as yesterday, will still be quite high, so it will almost certainly feel like over 100 degrees during the day today, and that is very hard to do anything in- keep your water nearby and drink as much as you can, this is going to be a brutal one. I recommend trying to avoid being outside between the hours of noon and six if you can help it! Tomorrow and Sunday look much better, with mid-80s temperatures, very low humidity, and partly sunny conditions, perfect to go to the beach or your other outdoor plans. The early look at next week suggests wet weather is possible for both Monday and Tuesday thanks to some thunderstorms.

The Atlantic remains quiet today, and weakening Tropical Storm Celia has left the east Pacific basin and therefore out of the area I typically discuss, so it's out of mind. Hurricane Darby remains at category 1 intensity, featuring 90mph winds. A different system will likely become Tropical Storm Estelle today or tomorrow though, so the basin remains cranking at a great deal of intensity.

Today in weather history will not be used today in light of the terrorist attacks in Nice, France. My thoughts go out to all those effected by these awful events that have become all too common lately.

7/14- Stormy

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be somewhat rainy, but all miserable. Thunderstorms are occurring over parts of Connecticut as I type, but we're far from finished even once this round moves through. The sun will come out as the rain moves off to the east, and that will cause greater instability this afternoon. A cold front will move through, and the SPC has put most of CT under a MARGINAL risk of severe weather, with the exceptions being far southern New London County (a SEE TEXT) and areas in and northwest of Waterbury, which has a higher (SLIGHT) risk. Regardless, it's going to be hot and miserable, with highs probably approaching if not exceeding 90 in parts of the state today. Thankfully, though, once we get through today, the humidity cuts out and we're looking at a stunning weekend with mid-80s and low humidity...we cannot really complain about that!


^ SPC outlook showing a marginal to slight risk of severe weather

The Atlantic remains quiet, but the Pacific is very active right now. Darby is an 80mph hurricane now as expected, Celia is still holding on to Tropical Storm intensity, and Estelle will probably form this weekend in a similar place as the last three. Thankfully, none of these systems poses any threat to land whatsoever.

Today in weather history- July 14, 1987- Grafton, IA picks up 8" of golf ball sized hail, totaling pretty much all of the crops in the largely farming community and ruining the growing season, ultimately costing $1 million in damage...not good!

7/14- Even hotter

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be hotter than yesterday- not by too much, but noticeable nonetheless, with highs in the low 90s. There is no threat of rain today, but the humidity will be climbing through the day as well. Tomorrow is going to be utterly miserable if you don't like hot and humid weather, but thankfully storms come through tomorrow evening to reduce the humidity. Some of these storms could be severe, so it's worth keeping an eye on as we move forward. Friday looks like the hottest of the next three days, but also the least humid. The weekend now looks completely dry, as does the first part of next week, with highs in the mid-80s being the prevalent temperature.

No development is expected in the Atlantic anytime soon, and Celia has weakened into a tropical storm this morning, but Tropical Storm Darby has formed behind it and is nearing hurricane intensity this morning as it packs 70mph wind. Thankfully, like the last several storms, this one poses no threat to land.

Today in weather history- July 13, 1895- A tornado hits Harlem, NY, but somehow only kills one person, which is an extremely lucky break. Fortunately, it is extremely difficult to get a strong tornado in New York City...but it is possible in many other major cities- the few that most often come to mind are Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis, and Oklahoma City...all of which have been affected by significant tornadoes in the past.

7/12- Getting Warmer

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be a very hot day, although it'll be nice in that sunshine will be the predominant sky condition. Highs will likely be in the upper 80s to near 90 in places...and the humidity will be a bit high (though not brutal) but...tomorrow looks even worse, with temps in the 90s and oppressive humidity. Thursday will feature our first chance of rain in quite a while- thunderstorms are quite likely in the afternoon hours in response to the heat and humidity. Friday looks similar to its' predecessor...and thus will be the last of a 3-day heat wave.

Unfortunately, the weekend forecast is complex indeed, as an odd off-season coastal low per say moves from southwest to northeast. I am confident that the result is that one of the weekend days will feature mostly rainy conditions...but I am not sure if it will be Saturday or Sunday. There's significant model disagreement in this regard, and I'll post about it as soon as we can determine with more certainty. If I had to guess right now...I'd say there is about a 60% chance that it will be Sunday that is impacted rather than Saturday...but that's not exactly extreme confidence.

The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, not at all unusual for early July. The Pacific, however, is hyperactive right now. Hurricane Celia is a category 2, but its' likely reached peak intensity as a 100mph storm as it moves into dryer air and generally heads towards Hawaii...who may want to keep an eye on the system. Additionally, Tropical Depression 5-E has formed 300 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico and is expected to become Tropical Storm and eventually Hurricane Darby, but it poses no threat to land. Another tropical depression is also expected to form this weekend...this is seriously impressive!

Today in weather history- July 12, 1980- A terrible day for a chicken farmer in Branford, FL as lightning strikes a main house on the farm, which kills 11,000 of the chickens. Somehow, however, firefighters were able to save a few thousand. That's pretty impressive really, considering the circumstances

7/11- Getting Warm this week

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be a pretty typical day for mid-July, albeit a touch cooler than usual as the highs today won't reach the mid-80s, but we get nice low humidity and partly sunny conditions. By tomorrow, however, the heat and humidity return- highs will be near 90- and we'll almost certainly eclipse that mark by Wednesday and Thursday, the second of those two days will likely feature some showers and thunderstorms thanks to a slow moving cold front, which sets the temperatures back into the mid 80s by the end of the weekend...although at least part of it looks rather wet at this time thanks to a low moving along a stalled front.

No development is expected in the Atlantic anytime soon as the quiet period continues, but Tropical Storm and now Hurricane Celia formed in the Pacific over the weekend, but it poses no threat to land. That said, development of a low fairly close to behind it is likely, and so I'll probably be talking about Tropical Storm Darby by the end of the week.

Today in weather history- July 11, 1888- Snow reaches practically the base of Mt. Washington, which is a very remarkable achievement for this time of year- it's almost exactly halfway through meteorological summer! Certainly it's more likely up there in the White Mountains, but to reach the base (where I have stayed for a week in August and experienced 80 degree temperatures) is truly rare.

7/8- Still Stormy

HAPPY FRIDAY ALL-

Today is going to be extremely similar to yesterday, with the exception that the rain will not be nearly as widespread. That said, some people will definitely get wet today, with the heaviest rain falling in Western Connecticut, and the least falling in eastern regions. The rain will likely stick around through the weekend- Sunday doesn't look nearly as good this morning as it did yesterday as the system responsible for these showers looks to be stalled out over the Great Lakes, continuing to spin showers through New England for several consecutive days. Thankfully, the rain departs by Monday, and Tuesday looks dry as well before a bit of rain appears to return for Wednesday. As for temperatures, we can expect high 80s today, and then slightly cooler conditions for both weekend days- I'm thinking low to mid 80s should do the trick for both days, with Saturday slightly warmer than Sunday.

No development is expected in the Atlantic anytime in the near future, but category 2 Hurricane Blas continues to spin in the Pacific with 105mph winds, and TD 4-E is very close to becoming Tropical Storm Celia, and likely will do so later today. Both of these storms, however, pose no threat to any land areas whatsoever- the only ones effected will be the fish in the waters of the Pacific.

Today in weather history- July 8, 1975- A lesson in lightning safety of what not to do- three people are killed and six others injured when lightning hits a tree next to a tin shed that they were in and it falls onto them. The lesson here? Trees and a metal shed are bad by themselves, but together they are a recipe for disaster!

7/7- Quite stormy

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be a bit of a mess- there is going to be a fair amount of rain falling today as we have a low centered just to our south. The temperature is going to be hot again, although some partial cloud cover should allow us to be a fair amount cooler than yesterday (though still...90 isn't exactly cool!). The thunderstorm risk is primarily in the afternoon hours, and some of them will produce intense rain, and be crawling, so someone could get a significant amount of rain today in a very short period of time. Tomorrow appears to have at least some risk of isolated PM thunderstorms, but they'll be the exception rather than the rule and will be brief. The first part of the weekend still looks wet, but Sunday through the middle of next week looks much more pleasant than our current situation- temps should cool into the 80s with partial sunshine.

No development is expected in the Atlantic, but Hurricane Blas in the Pacific continues to chug along as a 125mph category 3, though this should change as it moves into cooler waters and begins to weaken. Behind that, though, Tropical Depression 4-E is likely to become Tropical Storm Celia today as it moves west, but poses no threat to land.

Today in weather history- July 7, 1981- Glacier National Park, MT, receives ten inches of snow(!!). Yikes- that must have been quite the experience for JULY!!

7/6- Absolutely Horrendous

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be the triple H's of doom- hot, humid, and hazy. The even more unfortunate thing is that there is absolutely no threat for thunderstorms whatsoever...and we're heading for the mid 90s with very high humidity. Please be a bit careful this afternoon and have water available- it's a great beach day- but otherwise unpleasantness will reign supreme. Tomorrow looks much the same, albeit a touch cooler (but unnoticeable as it'll be about 90)- but the threat of thunderstorms does exist (some of which look quite strong, thanks to the humidity, there's plenty of moisture to work with). Friday is the same as Thursday for all intents and purposes, but Saturday appears to be a total washout with warm weather but widespread thunderstorms. At least Sunday, the second half of the weekend, looks much better and significantly cooler and lower humidity.

No development is expected in the Atlantic, but Hurricane Blas has reached its' peak intensity now as a 125mph category 3 hurricane- the first major hurricane of the Pacific season. Additionally, we're likely going to get Celia in the very near future in the Pacific as development occurs in nearly the same place as where Blas formed about five days ago.

Today in weather history- July 6, 1928- An incredible hailstorm in Potter, NE features 5.5" diameter hail with a 17" circumference and weighing 1.5lbs! Even more incredibly, this is no longer the record largest, but...that's for later this month!

7/5- A wet start

Good Tuesday all-

I hope that everyone had a great 4th! Now, though, attention will turn to the weather, since there's some interesting stuff in the forecast in the next few days. Much of the rain for today is over- the storm came in quite a bit earlier than expected and is presently moving away from the region to our east, but some showers are certainly possible through the next few hours until about noon, so bring your umbrella to work today. The longer you wait, though, the better it will be- we may even see partial sunshine this afternoon. By tomorrow, the second heat wave of 2016 will be beginning- and tomorrow looks to be the hottest- we're talking mid-90s and absolutely brutal humidity, so stay vigilant and safe tomorrow. That's not to say Thursday and Friday look much better- low 90s, high humidity, etc. The one saving grace (potentially) is that Thursday and Friday some thunderstorms will be possible as we get into the afternoon hours. These storms shouldn't be particularly strong, but we still have to be careful. The better chance of severe weather comes Saturday with a cold front to finally break the heat, setting up a beautiful day on Sunday with 80 degree temperatures and partly sunny skies.

No development is expected in the Atlantic, and Agatha has died in the Pacific, but Blas is nearing major hurricane status, now packing winds of 100mph, solidly in category 2 range. It is expected to become a major hurricane later today and maintain the intensity for a day or so before it begins the final weakening process. Additionally, a low is expected to become Celia later this week, but it will also pose no threat to land.

Today in weather history- July 5, 1970- Temperatures at Death Valley, CA get no lower than 103, and the high went up to 120. For Death Valley, this is not very impressive but...not many things have happened on July 5 in the weather world. Let's see if something noteworthy happens either today or in the coming years.

7/4- Hot for the 4th!

Good Monday all-

Happy 4th of July!! May it be a fantastic day for all of you and here's to hoping you don't burn your barbecue!

Today is going to be a typical Independence Day for the most part- mid to upper 80s and bright sunshine, with relatively high humidity. Although it's not great...it's not awful either...especially considering that we were getting glanced by Hurricane Arthur two years ago. Unfortunately, tomorrow is not exactly going to be good- the morning looks like a total washout as a low moves just to our south, but certainly close enough to deliver a soaking rain to all of Connecticut. We really need it though, so no complaining is allowed! We do dry out for Wednesday, but then we head for the 90s from Thursday to Sunday, with thunderstorms a distinct possibility on each day.

No development is expected in the Atlantic. However, both Tropical Storms Agatha and Blas have formed in the eastern Pacific basin. Neither pose any threat to land, and Agatha is dying out right now, but Blas is expected to be a major hurricane in the coming days, far off in the Pacific basin in a harmless trajectory. It's going to be beautiful on satellite imagery though!

Today in weather history- 4th of July, 1956- Unionville, MD breaks the all time record for world one minute rainfall, somehow managing to pick up some 1.23" of rain in 60 seconds. That works out to an incredible 74" of rain per hour!!

TORNADOES

Good afternoon everyone-

Thought I should let everyone know that a TORNADO WATCH has been issued for areas east of 91. This is extremely rare, and probably happens on average once every couple of years. There is also an extremely rare ENHANCED risk of severe weather for areas along and west of 91...with a SLIGHT risk out there. Seriously, stay safe.

7/1- July starts with severe

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE--

Today is going to be a pretty intense day of forecasting for me, as we are faced with undoubtedly the highest risk of severe weather for Connecticut so far this year. The SPC has placed areas along and west of Rt. 8 under a SLIGHT risk (which actually is pretty rare for Connecticut- this happens about 5-6 times per year, on average)- and everyone else is under a MARGINAL risk. A cold front will be moving through the region at exactly the right time to kick off strong to severe thunderstorms that will likely begin around 4 tonight. These storms will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and possibly even tornadoes, especially in the western half of Connecticut today. It should be fun watching these developing cells for sure! The good news is that this rather nasty weather sets up what will be a beautiful stretch of weather that is the same as well. For the next week, the temperature will be no cooler than 80 and no warmer than 88 with partly sunny conditions each day. The only possible exception would be Tuesday, but I believe that storm will miss just to our south.


^SPC outlook showing a slight risk of severe weather in Connecticut this evening.

No development is expected in the Atlantic, whereas the development in the Pacific is the same as it was the other day, but the system itself is now well over water.

Today in weather history- July 1, 1979- Stampede Pass, WA somehow manages to pick up 6" of snow. Yes, this is July and it really did snow there...but unsurprisingly, it's the highest July snowfall on record in the United States.