Happy Friday everyone-
Please note that this will be my last post until January 9th, barring some unforseen storm as I will be in Disney World from Monday to Saturday next week.
On that note...we get to do our annual recap post today as the sands of time continue to roll through the years. Farewell to 2016!
First things first though- the actual forecast for the next week. Stay safe this morning- black ice has developed overnight and the roads are a mess- take it slow! For the most part, it's really not too bad but...there could be some mixed precipitation in the area right as the ball drops tomorrow night. It won't accumulate at all but...it will make standing in Times Square a bit miserable. I cannot rule out some snow showers today but I am not too worried about them- maybe an inch can accumulate in the heaviest ones. Beyond that, Monday is the trouble spot as icy weather is expected with some freezing rain in the morning hours...before it transitions to just regular rain by the afternoon. Tuesday looks to be a total washout but Wednesday looks stunning, with highs in the 50s(!) and sunny skies. The next chance for a significant snowstorm doesn't look like it falls until around 1/10, so enjoy the next bit of time with limited frozen precip!
Now to look back on 2016-
We were bone dry this year...although we have made some progress since mid-October, most of the state is still in a significant drought.
The most notable event of January was without a doubt Blizzard Ana, the biggest snowstorm of the calendar year. Although this was much more significant in areas just to our south- New York got nearly 3ft(!), it still proved quite a mess, added to by the fact that it was not expected to have a major impact until about 12 hours before the snow started. The result was that much of southern Connecticut picked up around a foot of the white stuff. Otherwise, the month was a great indicator of the snowless, mild winter of 2015-16. Also noteworthy was the formation of Hurricane Alex in the Azores- the furthest northeast hurricane ever recorded- and it happened in the dead of winter. That's just weird.
February was much the same, though one significant snowfall was experienced thanks to Winter Storm Barbara on the 6th, which dropped roughly 10" of snow on our area. Another system struck the following Monday with around another 6", but then the active pattern ended with some record cold- temperatures dropped to -15(!!!) the following weekend- and then the snow dried up for another month and a half.
March was a very routine month here in Connecticut, again notable for its' extreme lack of precipitation and modest temperatures. Despite that, there was a roughly 2-5" snowfall on the Vernal Equinox...as well as pretty nice weather for Easter with temps in the low 60s.
April started with quite the shock, with back-to-back 2-4" snowfalls resulting in the snowiest April since 1997...but we quickly moderated things beyond that and continued to have a dry spell. It rained some to be sure- but not nearly as much as it should have been for that time of year.
May was highlighted by unseasonably cool temperatures and a brief threat around Memorial Day from what would ultimately become Tropical Storm Bonnie, but a rain event caused the hot dogs of the holiday itself to be quite wet.
June was also a routine month in the weather world, with perhaps the most notable event being a moderate rainfall at the end of the month. As can be expected that time of year, there were several days with pop up showers, but those were few in nature and scattered widely...not doing much damage to the drought, which by this point had exceeded 6" for the state.
July featured some hot weather as you would expect, with a few days nearing or touching 100 in the beginning of the month, which would prove to feature above average temperatures for the majority of the month, but also included a severe outbreak of sorts on July 3, but the bark was worse than the bite that time...alarmingly, the month was still dry...expanding the drought.
August proved to include a very noteworthy event in which a tornado struck North Haven, downing a number of trees and power lines on an otherwise rather stormy but not severe day...it was essentially that one cell that wound up with a quick spin-up, illustrating the difficulties of forecasting severe weather.
September's most notable event was the impacts we felt from Hurricane Hermine, which crossed Florida and moved up the coast, prompting Tropical Storm Warnings for our area for the first time in five years...but the system jogged just far enough to our east and spared us the most significant impacts. By the end of the month, we finally began to dent the drought but not nearly to the extent we needed to, and water levels were approaching record low levels here.
October's most notable event meteorologically was a storm that will long live in infamy...not here necessarily (although it certainly gave us mets quite a fright in the early part of the month) and that of course was Hurricane Matthew, which killed over 1,000 people in Haiti before paralelling the Florida coast within about 20 miles, finally making landfall in South Carolina at category 1 intensity, but it had once been the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic in nine years. Undoubtedly, this is one name that will be retired from the basins name list...with Earl being another possibility...we'll know in the spring. Also, Hurricane Nicole struck Bermuda directly at category 4 intensity, but the sure recipe for disaster never really materialized to the extent feared. The seasons' first snowfall occurred on Halloween for many.
November was highlighted by a bit of drought busting rain- not nearly enough to erase the whole thing, but we did make a dent in it- as well as parts of Litchfield County picking up a foot of lake effect snow, a remarkably strange and rare event on November 20. Thanksgiving here was quite wet as well, causing some travel difficulties.
Finally, December will go into the record books as the most "typical" December in recent years, breaking the warm streak of the last two years, which included Winter Storm Albie, the first December named storm since Ashford in 2013. Several other wintry precip events occurred as well, including a close call to a monster storm yesterday, while Christmas Day proved to be pretty nice but not quite white for most as much of Albie's snow melted in a rainstorm on Xmas Eve.
All in all, with the exception of a very few events, it was a forgettable year here, which is not necessarily a bad thing by any means. Overall, it has been a crazy year worldwide overall, but this is the time of year to look forward as well. It's been a pleasure to be blogging here for my third year, and I will continue as well as we begin our 2017. Have a very, very happy new year and first week of '17. See you on the 9th!
Friday, December 30, 2016
Thursday, December 29, 2016
12/29- STORM WARNING NW HILLS
Good Thursday all-
Well, it's a fragile forecast but it appears as though most of CT (95%) of us have dodged the bullet here. The exception is the far NW hills...who may see double-digit snowfall...but even that is iffy at best. We have intense model disagreement there, with some showing 2" and others showing a foot. I'll take the middle road and go with a conservative 4-7"...but...don't be shocked to see more or less than that. For the rest of our area...1-3" seems reasonable...but even that may be rather optimistic...it's entirely within the realm of possibility that many towns south of 84 see a total of diddly squat...so don't be shocked if that occurs either. Of course, a microscopic shift in the track could change everything...so we'll have to see if that occurs and which direction that takes place in. That said...I feel pretty confident with these numbers and expect them to verify quite nicely. Other than today, no true winter storms are in sight, though I cannot rule out a bit of mixed precip right around ball drop time...and the first storm of 2017 will come on Tuesday...but mostly in the form of rain.
Stay safe out there- there is certainly the potential for icy spots on the roads and your driveway- I took a nasty fall myself the other day as I was getting the mail- so go as slow as you need to!
Tomorrow will be my year-in-review post...and it won't be nearly as entertaining as last year's! 2016 was not the most eventful weather year at all...but there were still a few noteworthy days as you would expect!
Well, it's a fragile forecast but it appears as though most of CT (95%) of us have dodged the bullet here. The exception is the far NW hills...who may see double-digit snowfall...but even that is iffy at best. We have intense model disagreement there, with some showing 2" and others showing a foot. I'll take the middle road and go with a conservative 4-7"...but...don't be shocked to see more or less than that. For the rest of our area...1-3" seems reasonable...but even that may be rather optimistic...it's entirely within the realm of possibility that many towns south of 84 see a total of diddly squat...so don't be shocked if that occurs either. Of course, a microscopic shift in the track could change everything...so we'll have to see if that occurs and which direction that takes place in. That said...I feel pretty confident with these numbers and expect them to verify quite nicely. Other than today, no true winter storms are in sight, though I cannot rule out a bit of mixed precip right around ball drop time...and the first storm of 2017 will come on Tuesday...but mostly in the form of rain.
Stay safe out there- there is certainly the potential for icy spots on the roads and your driveway- I took a nasty fall myself the other day as I was getting the mail- so go as slow as you need to!
Tomorrow will be my year-in-review post...and it won't be nearly as entertaining as last year's! 2016 was not the most eventful weather year at all...but there were still a few noteworthy days as you would expect!
Wednesday, December 28, 2016
12/28- STORM WARNING- Significant Winter Storm Likely Tomorrow
Good Wednesday all-
A WINTER STORM WATCH is up for Northern Litchfield County, and all of Hartford and Tolland Counties. Southern Litchfield has a high end WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
I have a real forecasting nightmare at the moment with some intense model disagreement about a major nor'easter that is going to be impacting our weather for tomorrow. I can pretty much guarantee a major impact of some kind...but exactly what kind remains to be seen. The GFS and CMC models are saying almost all rain, with only a few sloppy inches (1-3") in the northwest hills, the European model is saying 3-6" for everyone north of the immediate shoreline, and the NAM (which has been the most accurate in recent years) is showing 6-12" for parts of far northern Connecticut, with 2-5" totals commonplace south of there. That helps...how? Well it does allow me to establish this- I think a reasonable figure for interior portions of the southern counties is 2-5". The real trick here is going to be forecasting for the Litchfield Hills and parts of the northeastern hilltops as well- essentially the good old "along and north of 84" type deal...I will begin with 4-8"...which is in close agreement with the National Weather Service as well.
That said, there is no looming significant precipitation beyond this storm until Tuesday, though some mixed precip is possible right around midnight on New Year's Eve (how wonderful!)...and the Tuesday system *should* be a primarily rain event. I will keep you posted if something changes with that though!
Today in weather history- December 28, 1955- Anchorage, AK is hit with a record breaking 17.7" of snow in 24 hours, which is probably not what you thought that record would be! The reason this is relatively low is their location on the immediate shoreline tends to produce more mixed precipitation than snow...in fact, the average snowfall for the area is just 75.5", which is a touch under twice more than what our typical season is...and we have had more snow than that on a handfull of occasions (most recently for most locations in 2012-13, when we had that one 40" storm and a few others, and for those that didn't, then everyone in CT did in the historic 2010-11 winter). By comparison...an area just to the northeast of there- Valdez, AK, is the snowiest city in the United States, averaging 297.7" of snow a year, 3 times...our all-time record(!!)
A WINTER STORM WATCH is up for Northern Litchfield County, and all of Hartford and Tolland Counties. Southern Litchfield has a high end WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
I have a real forecasting nightmare at the moment with some intense model disagreement about a major nor'easter that is going to be impacting our weather for tomorrow. I can pretty much guarantee a major impact of some kind...but exactly what kind remains to be seen. The GFS and CMC models are saying almost all rain, with only a few sloppy inches (1-3") in the northwest hills, the European model is saying 3-6" for everyone north of the immediate shoreline, and the NAM (which has been the most accurate in recent years) is showing 6-12" for parts of far northern Connecticut, with 2-5" totals commonplace south of there. That helps...how? Well it does allow me to establish this- I think a reasonable figure for interior portions of the southern counties is 2-5". The real trick here is going to be forecasting for the Litchfield Hills and parts of the northeastern hilltops as well- essentially the good old "along and north of 84" type deal...I will begin with 4-8"...which is in close agreement with the National Weather Service as well.
That said, there is no looming significant precipitation beyond this storm until Tuesday, though some mixed precip is possible right around midnight on New Year's Eve (how wonderful!)...and the Tuesday system *should* be a primarily rain event. I will keep you posted if something changes with that though!
Today in weather history- December 28, 1955- Anchorage, AK is hit with a record breaking 17.7" of snow in 24 hours, which is probably not what you thought that record would be! The reason this is relatively low is their location on the immediate shoreline tends to produce more mixed precipitation than snow...in fact, the average snowfall for the area is just 75.5", which is a touch under twice more than what our typical season is...and we have had more snow than that on a handfull of occasions (most recently for most locations in 2012-13, when we had that one 40" storm and a few others, and for those that didn't, then everyone in CT did in the historic 2010-11 winter). By comparison...an area just to the northeast of there- Valdez, AK, is the snowiest city in the United States, averaging 297.7" of snow a year, 3 times...our all-time record(!!)
Tuesday, December 27, 2016
12/27- STORM WATCH- The joys of Forecasting Winter
Good Tuesday all-
Thursday has gotten more interesting overnight, which is bad news for those who have travel plans...or those who hate snow. We have intense model disagreement, with everything (and I mean everything) still on the table, except for no precipitation. From rain to 2 feet of snow though? There's a clear and distinct path to either possible outcome. I'll discuss below.
What we essentially have going on is two systems trying to merge together into a coastal low off the mid Atlantic coastline. This low appears to be tracking either just barely inside of...or directly over...the 40/70 benchmark. Ordinarily...this is a recipe for a historic snowstorm for Connecticut. The issues we have though are no blocking high to our north to keep the cold air locked in.
This is not necessarily fatal however- we simply have to have the storm be strong enough to create its' own cold air. That, my friends, is where the models are disagreeing.
The GFS and CMC models suggest the storm won't get its' act together until just past the 40/70, and in the Gulf of Maine. This would be a nightmare for that state...but be a chilly rain for us. On the other hand, the Euro(!) and the NAM, feature the storm intensifying just further south...but that's enough to keep it mostly...if not entirely...snow for the state except for the immediate shoreline. In such a scenario, I would call for a massive snowstorm with the potential to see well over a foot of snow....possibly two? In any case, the roof for this one is all-time top 10 range...so that means we really, really, really have to watch this one! For now...know that plans on Thursday and Friday look iffy at best. If the storm system does come together, the heaviest snow would fall Thursday late afternoon into Friday, which would then have to be spent shoveling.
The next name on WFSB's name list is Breanna. Note that this would be the first time since 2012 that two named storms have occurred before the New Year.
Thursday has gotten more interesting overnight, which is bad news for those who have travel plans...or those who hate snow. We have intense model disagreement, with everything (and I mean everything) still on the table, except for no precipitation. From rain to 2 feet of snow though? There's a clear and distinct path to either possible outcome. I'll discuss below.
What we essentially have going on is two systems trying to merge together into a coastal low off the mid Atlantic coastline. This low appears to be tracking either just barely inside of...or directly over...the 40/70 benchmark. Ordinarily...this is a recipe for a historic snowstorm for Connecticut. The issues we have though are no blocking high to our north to keep the cold air locked in.
This is not necessarily fatal however- we simply have to have the storm be strong enough to create its' own cold air. That, my friends, is where the models are disagreeing.
The GFS and CMC models suggest the storm won't get its' act together until just past the 40/70, and in the Gulf of Maine. This would be a nightmare for that state...but be a chilly rain for us. On the other hand, the Euro(!) and the NAM, feature the storm intensifying just further south...but that's enough to keep it mostly...if not entirely...snow for the state except for the immediate shoreline. In such a scenario, I would call for a massive snowstorm with the potential to see well over a foot of snow....possibly two? In any case, the roof for this one is all-time top 10 range...so that means we really, really, really have to watch this one! For now...know that plans on Thursday and Friday look iffy at best. If the storm system does come together, the heaviest snow would fall Thursday late afternoon into Friday, which would then have to be spent shoveling.
The next name on WFSB's name list is Breanna. Note that this would be the first time since 2012 that two named storms have occurred before the New Year.
Monday, December 26, 2016
12/26- Thursday Issues?
Good Monday all-
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY is up for Hartford & Litchfield Counties beginning at 1 PM today.
Christmas is over- can you believe it? Now as we head into the final week of 2016 we have a few things to keep our eyes on. The big one is Thursday, but we also have to get through some showers tonight and tomorrow as a cold front moves through the region. The freezing rain advisory for northern Connecticut is because temps will be either at or just above freezing, but the ground will be below and thus you have a problem! Highs will be seasonable for much of the week with temperatures almost exclusively in the mid 30s...but tomorrow will be exceptionally warm, and New Year's Day may hit 40 as well. For revelers in Times Square on Saturday, it looks like a very typical night- it should be about 30 degrees at the stroke of midnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies as we ring in 2017.
The major question in the next week is exactly what a storm system will do on Thursday. We have some divergence on computer models. The Euro is forecasting a major snowstorm for all of New England on Thursday- such a scenario could produce double-digit snowfall for most of Connecticut. Right now, however, I have doubts about the extent of the cold air in place and the timing of the transfer of energy from a clipper to a nor'easter. The GFS is a bit too late for anything significant in our area. Right now, I'll take the safer middle road with steady, moderate mixed precipitation for Thursday. If it is all snow...then we have a really big problem (don't panic, but a pure snowstorm could produce upwards of 20"). I will be watching it closely...as I said, it's early...but at least some travel impacts are likely in that timeframe. The next name on the WFSB name list is Breanna, and this has a pretty decent chance of being just that.
Today in weather history- December 26, 2010- Blizzard Adrianne strikes Connecticut, with intense winds and producing over a foot of snow in portions of the region. My house in Wallingford picked up 9", but the wind is what made it memorable as I couldn't see the house across the street from me for much of the event! This storm is also remembered as the beginning of the epic winter of 2010-11...the second snowiest winter ever recorded in Connecticut. Over 60" of snow would fall in the next five weeks!
Note that I will be out of town quite a bit the next few weeks, from January 2-8, and again from January 13-19. I will update when I can but it will almost certainly be spotty in that time period. Of course, if a big storm is likely...this is the place you can come for information!
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY is up for Hartford & Litchfield Counties beginning at 1 PM today.
Christmas is over- can you believe it? Now as we head into the final week of 2016 we have a few things to keep our eyes on. The big one is Thursday, but we also have to get through some showers tonight and tomorrow as a cold front moves through the region. The freezing rain advisory for northern Connecticut is because temps will be either at or just above freezing, but the ground will be below and thus you have a problem! Highs will be seasonable for much of the week with temperatures almost exclusively in the mid 30s...but tomorrow will be exceptionally warm, and New Year's Day may hit 40 as well. For revelers in Times Square on Saturday, it looks like a very typical night- it should be about 30 degrees at the stroke of midnight with partly to mostly cloudy skies as we ring in 2017.
The major question in the next week is exactly what a storm system will do on Thursday. We have some divergence on computer models. The Euro is forecasting a major snowstorm for all of New England on Thursday- such a scenario could produce double-digit snowfall for most of Connecticut. Right now, however, I have doubts about the extent of the cold air in place and the timing of the transfer of energy from a clipper to a nor'easter. The GFS is a bit too late for anything significant in our area. Right now, I'll take the safer middle road with steady, moderate mixed precipitation for Thursday. If it is all snow...then we have a really big problem (don't panic, but a pure snowstorm could produce upwards of 20"). I will be watching it closely...as I said, it's early...but at least some travel impacts are likely in that timeframe. The next name on the WFSB name list is Breanna, and this has a pretty decent chance of being just that.
Today in weather history- December 26, 2010- Blizzard Adrianne strikes Connecticut, with intense winds and producing over a foot of snow in portions of the region. My house in Wallingford picked up 9", but the wind is what made it memorable as I couldn't see the house across the street from me for much of the event! This storm is also remembered as the beginning of the epic winter of 2010-11...the second snowiest winter ever recorded in Connecticut. Over 60" of snow would fall in the next five weeks!
Note that I will be out of town quite a bit the next few weeks, from January 2-8, and again from January 13-19. I will update when I can but it will almost certainly be spotty in that time period. Of course, if a big storm is likely...this is the place you can come for information!
Friday, December 23, 2016
12/23- No Change to Xmas, Active New Year's?
Happy FRIDAY everyone- and for many, the last day before Christmas Vacation!
Today is going to be fine, and the forecast remains entirely unchanged from yesterday (though I now think that tomorrow's storm will be all rain except in the far northwest hills). Otherwise, it will pour for much of the day but we will dry things out for Sunday, Christmas Day. As we head towards New Year's next weekend though, it does appear as though an active pattern will be developing with storm potentials of some kind on Friday...and New Year's Day (Sunday 1/1/17). I assure you I will be watching it as the time approaches. Any change to that forecast timing could cause issues for the revelers in Times Square!
Today in weather history- December 23, 1989- An arctic snap drops temperatures to record levels across much of the Central USA, with temperatures in New Orleans falling to 11 degrees(!!) and -4 at San Angelo, TX! To add insult to injury, a major storm develops along the southeast coast and when coupled with the major cold snap dropped 13.5" of snow on Cape Hatteras. Ouch. All of these are all time record figures for their area.
Today is going to be fine, and the forecast remains entirely unchanged from yesterday (though I now think that tomorrow's storm will be all rain except in the far northwest hills). Otherwise, it will pour for much of the day but we will dry things out for Sunday, Christmas Day. As we head towards New Year's next weekend though, it does appear as though an active pattern will be developing with storm potentials of some kind on Friday...and New Year's Day (Sunday 1/1/17). I assure you I will be watching it as the time approaches. Any change to that forecast timing could cause issues for the revelers in Times Square!
Today in weather history- December 23, 1989- An arctic snap drops temperatures to record levels across much of the Central USA, with temperatures in New Orleans falling to 11 degrees(!!) and -4 at San Angelo, TX! To add insult to injury, a major storm develops along the southeast coast and when coupled with the major cold snap dropped 13.5" of snow on Cape Hatteras. Ouch. All of these are all time record figures for their area.
Thursday, December 22, 2016
12/22- A Few Flurries, Messy Xmas Eve?
Good Thursday all-
Well, today will be pretty nice all in all, but we have to get through the morning first. It won't be that hard to do though- just a few scattered flurries and snow showers (or rain showers) will be moving through our state from west to east and I cannot rule out a dusting in areas along and north of I-84. By the afternoon though we should be left with at least partly cloudy skies and temps in the low 40s...we'll take that. Tomorrow looks like an average December day, but then Saturday, Christmas Eve, looks like a bit of a mess with a morning wintry mix changing to rain. Not that pleasant but...it's better than having it on Christmas Day- it appears that we will not have a 3rd straight warm and wet Christmas- this year, it's looking like sunshine with temperatures in the low 40s, which is not that uncommon. Also, as we look into next week, it doesn't appear that we will be dealing with any significant storms until 2017...we'll take this break!
Today in weather history- December 22, 1988- Fort Collins, CO, manages to deal with an extreme wind gust of 123mph- that's category 3 hurricane intensity. The mountain peaks and valleys can certainly help enhance wind, and they certainly did here!
Well, today will be pretty nice all in all, but we have to get through the morning first. It won't be that hard to do though- just a few scattered flurries and snow showers (or rain showers) will be moving through our state from west to east and I cannot rule out a dusting in areas along and north of I-84. By the afternoon though we should be left with at least partly cloudy skies and temps in the low 40s...we'll take that. Tomorrow looks like an average December day, but then Saturday, Christmas Eve, looks like a bit of a mess with a morning wintry mix changing to rain. Not that pleasant but...it's better than having it on Christmas Day- it appears that we will not have a 3rd straight warm and wet Christmas- this year, it's looking like sunshine with temperatures in the low 40s, which is not that uncommon. Also, as we look into next week, it doesn't appear that we will be dealing with any significant storms until 2017...we'll take this break!
Today in weather history- December 22, 1988- Fort Collins, CO, manages to deal with an extreme wind gust of 123mph- that's category 3 hurricane intensity. The mountain peaks and valleys can certainly help enhance wind, and they certainly did here!
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
12/21- WINTER SOLSTICE- Great Xmas Forecast
Good Wednesday all-
What a beautiful next several days we're going to have (well, at least for late December)...well, except for Christmas Eve (I know, but...hey it could be worse). Other than a scattered flurry or shower tomorrow, we're high and dry for all of the next 3 days (today, tomorrow, and Friday). Saturday is the trouble spot here, as a storm system moves in from the west with a wintry mix in the morning changing to rain in the afternoon. This will be gone before Christmas Day...which looks terrific. Temperatures look to peak in the 40s for the forseeable future...even beyond Christmas as we begin heading towards New Year's, which an early look at suggests it will likely be dry behind a storm system for Friday 12/30.
Today is the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year.
May your winter be excellent, warm, and filled with hot chocolate and snowmen!
What a beautiful next several days we're going to have (well, at least for late December)...well, except for Christmas Eve (I know, but...hey it could be worse). Other than a scattered flurry or shower tomorrow, we're high and dry for all of the next 3 days (today, tomorrow, and Friday). Saturday is the trouble spot here, as a storm system moves in from the west with a wintry mix in the morning changing to rain in the afternoon. This will be gone before Christmas Day...which looks terrific. Temperatures look to peak in the 40s for the forseeable future...even beyond Christmas as we begin heading towards New Year's, which an early look at suggests it will likely be dry behind a storm system for Friday 12/30.
Today is the Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year.
May your winter be excellent, warm, and filled with hot chocolate and snowmen!
Monday, December 19, 2016
12/19- Watching Thursday...here comes Xmas...
Good Monday all-
Today is going to be a rather chilly and nippy day, but nice overall, and the same can be said for each of the next three days. The only trouble spot in the immediate future is Thursday, where we have to keep our eyes on a potential interaction with a clipper system and a coastal system off to our southeast. If everything comes together...there is a small (<20% chance) of a major snowstorm...but the most likely scenario is some scattered flurries or a light period of snow. As we head into the Christmas weekend...there likely will be another storm nearby the day after Christmas, but we simply have to watch that one as it's far too early for details.
Today in weather history- December 19, 1924- Yellowstone National Park's Riverside Ranger Station drops to -59 degrees, the all-time December record for the United States...that's cold!
Today is going to be a rather chilly and nippy day, but nice overall, and the same can be said for each of the next three days. The only trouble spot in the immediate future is Thursday, where we have to keep our eyes on a potential interaction with a clipper system and a coastal system off to our southeast. If everything comes together...there is a small (<20% chance) of a major snowstorm...but the most likely scenario is some scattered flurries or a light period of snow. As we head into the Christmas weekend...there likely will be another storm nearby the day after Christmas, but we simply have to watch that one as it's far too early for details.
Today in weather history- December 19, 1924- Yellowstone National Park's Riverside Ranger Station drops to -59 degrees, the all-time December record for the United States...that's cold!
Saturday, December 17, 2016
A Snow Surprise- Goodbye to Albie
Well, I expected snow but...I cannot say I expected to be posting about....
So...well...yeah. Essentially, what happened here is a combination of things that prevented the snow from changing to rain until the very end of the storm- I don't think I lost any accumulation at all in Naugatuck. To my shock, I somehow ended up receiving 7" of snow...and well...so did most others. A very small secondary low developed off of Long Island, which allowed, not only the warm front to stay south...but allowed enough of a wind shift to the northeast that the cold air was allowed to remain throughout the morning. The end result was essentially a 5-8" snowfall (congrats to Winsted on 9", which appears to be the jackpot) across pretty much the entire state...and the first named storm of the 2016-17 winter. This comes over a month earlier than the first named storm last year (Jan. 29th's Blizzard Ana). Additionally...Albie is the first named storm to occur during the month of December since 2013's Winter Storm Ashford...that's quite a while as we can have a rather snowy finish to the year sometimes!
In any event, I hope you enjoyed it...because this means that, because we now have a deep snowpack instead of a medium snowpack...it won't all melt tomorrow...and you'll need to shovel it. Sorry!
The next name on the list is Breanna, and I am watching Thursday to see if we could find her there as there is a threat of a nor'easter on that day.
^^^ This is unlikely for now, but the 12z CMC is shown here indicating 10-15" of snow for Thursday night and Friday across northern areas. Ouch.
So...well...yeah. Essentially, what happened here is a combination of things that prevented the snow from changing to rain until the very end of the storm- I don't think I lost any accumulation at all in Naugatuck. To my shock, I somehow ended up receiving 7" of snow...and well...so did most others. A very small secondary low developed off of Long Island, which allowed, not only the warm front to stay south...but allowed enough of a wind shift to the northeast that the cold air was allowed to remain throughout the morning. The end result was essentially a 5-8" snowfall (congrats to Winsted on 9", which appears to be the jackpot) across pretty much the entire state...and the first named storm of the 2016-17 winter. This comes over a month earlier than the first named storm last year (Jan. 29th's Blizzard Ana). Additionally...Albie is the first named storm to occur during the month of December since 2013's Winter Storm Ashford...that's quite a while as we can have a rather snowy finish to the year sometimes!
In any event, I hope you enjoyed it...because this means that, because we now have a deep snowpack instead of a medium snowpack...it won't all melt tomorrow...and you'll need to shovel it. Sorry!
The next name on the list is Breanna, and I am watching Thursday to see if we could find her there as there is a threat of a nor'easter on that day.
^^^ This is unlikely for now, but the 12z CMC is shown here indicating 10-15" of snow for Thursday night and Friday across northern areas. Ouch.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
12/15- Snow for Saturday
Good Thursday all-
My finals are over, so I'm back! And I have some bad news- the first truly significant snowfall of the season is on the way for Saturday. It will feature snow changing to rain, but, unlike the last time, the temperatures will be much cooler at the beginning, allowing the snow to hang around for a very long time, and I am expecting pretty heavy accumulations. I am expecting roughly 2-5" for central CT, 1-3" southeast, and 4-6" along and north of I-84, including the Naugatuck Valley. These numbers, although they always could change, have higher confidence than normal as we have exceedingly good computer model agreement, and they pass the "is it reasonable" test very easily...so I'll roll with it and enjoy watching it fall.
There are two other major stories for the next couple of days- a rare HIGH WIND WARNING is up for the entire state today and tonight, where we can expect winds to gust as high as 60mph, causing some scattered power outages. Additionally, by tonight, we will have frigid temperatures...though they won't be as bad as we had been expecting- we will likely stay in the positive single digits...but the wind chill will be nasty and a WIND CHILL ADVISORY is up for northern CT- so stay warm tonight and tie down your loose objects!
I will have the latest on Winter Storm Decima (TWC has named the Saturday storm) tomorrow!
Today in weather history- December 15, 1945- Areas just south of Buffalo, NY, pick up 70" of snow thanks to an incredibly strong lake effect snow event...that's taller than most people...imagine trying to dig out of that!
My finals are over, so I'm back! And I have some bad news- the first truly significant snowfall of the season is on the way for Saturday. It will feature snow changing to rain, but, unlike the last time, the temperatures will be much cooler at the beginning, allowing the snow to hang around for a very long time, and I am expecting pretty heavy accumulations. I am expecting roughly 2-5" for central CT, 1-3" southeast, and 4-6" along and north of I-84, including the Naugatuck Valley. These numbers, although they always could change, have higher confidence than normal as we have exceedingly good computer model agreement, and they pass the "is it reasonable" test very easily...so I'll roll with it and enjoy watching it fall.
There are two other major stories for the next couple of days- a rare HIGH WIND WARNING is up for the entire state today and tonight, where we can expect winds to gust as high as 60mph, causing some scattered power outages. Additionally, by tonight, we will have frigid temperatures...though they won't be as bad as we had been expecting- we will likely stay in the positive single digits...but the wind chill will be nasty and a WIND CHILL ADVISORY is up for northern CT- so stay warm tonight and tie down your loose objects!
I will have the latest on Winter Storm Decima (TWC has named the Saturday storm) tomorrow!
Today in weather history- December 15, 1945- Areas just south of Buffalo, NY, pick up 70" of snow thanks to an incredibly strong lake effect snow event...that's taller than most people...imagine trying to dig out of that!
Sunday, December 11, 2016
12/11- Watching Tonight
Good Sunday all-
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for all of Northern CT except for southern Litchfield County...what the heck...that really needs to be included!
In any event, a decent statewide accumulating snow event is on the way for this evening. I think most of us see 1-4", with perhaps a scattered 5" total in the Litchfield Hills north of the Waterbury area. Elevation will be key here...as will just how quickly the warm air is able to filter down to the surface (that's especially key in the difference between ice and rain). As for school impacts...I expect most schools north of the immediate shoreline to delay. I believe that along the shoreline, schools will likely be totally open. That said, in Litchfield County, especially in northern zones, it wouldn't surprise me to see some schools completely close. This will occur in the areas that see 4" instead of 1"...and get a fair amount of icing.
All in all, this isn't the big snowstorm we once feared, but it's still an impactful event. Keep your eyes on the skies today as the flakes get ready to fall and take some extra time in the morning to get where you need to be!
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for all of Northern CT except for southern Litchfield County...what the heck...that really needs to be included!
In any event, a decent statewide accumulating snow event is on the way for this evening. I think most of us see 1-4", with perhaps a scattered 5" total in the Litchfield Hills north of the Waterbury area. Elevation will be key here...as will just how quickly the warm air is able to filter down to the surface (that's especially key in the difference between ice and rain). As for school impacts...I expect most schools north of the immediate shoreline to delay. I believe that along the shoreline, schools will likely be totally open. That said, in Litchfield County, especially in northern zones, it wouldn't surprise me to see some schools completely close. This will occur in the areas that see 4" instead of 1"...and get a fair amount of icing.
All in all, this isn't the big snowstorm we once feared, but it's still an impactful event. Keep your eyes on the skies today as the flakes get ready to fall and take some extra time in the morning to get where you need to be!
Saturday, December 10, 2016
12/10- STORM WATCH A bit better model agreement- Ice Ice Ice
Good Saturday everyone-
I'm here with the latest information on Winter Storm Caly for tomorrow evening. We're starting to get a bit better model agreement. The Euro has caved to the GFS, so we can begin to discuss totals with a great deal of higher confidence than we did last evening. And here's what we can expect, in terms of snow, ice, and school impacts.
On the immediate shoreline, from North Branford-Ridgefield-Deep River: 1-3" of snow is possible, with a bit of ice but plenty of rain as the morning moves on. I think that delays are likely in this region, but it will be very tough to get closings as the precipitation transitions to just plain rain through the morning hours.
Inland but SOUTH of the Litchfield Hills and northeastern CT, including greater Hartford and the I-91 corridor: 2-4" of snow is likely, with a transition to, potentially, a period of prolonged icing as the surface temperatures slowly rise to above freezing but not until about noon...so this could be a very serious issue. I do expect most schools here to be closed completely, but this is a very fragile forecast as, if it changes to rain more quickly than expected, delays would be the most widespread scenario.
Inland IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS and along and north of the I-84 corridor (and into the Naugatuck Valley, which tends to hold onto cold air longer than the surrounding areas), including Waterbury, Litchfield and Torrington- 3-6" of snow is possible, with the highest amounts in the far northwestern portions of the state (I'm looking at you, Norfolk!) but still a pretty decent snow event for this part of the state. Given a pretty decent amount of snow (the grass will be totally covered and with the cold air it will stick very willingly...followed by several hours of ice (it will be very tough to get surface temps above freezing here), it is very likely schools will totally close in this region.
As for WestConn...my final exams are Monday...which means this is a critical forecast for me. I do not even know what to think here...as we are going to be right on the very fringe. Danbury should get about 3" of snow followed by a decent amount of ice. I do think that the morning finals will be cancelled but...I have less confidence in the afternoon finals. This will be a brutal call for the president to make...so we'll see what happens!
I know I have many readers of this blog in New Haven- I am officially forecasting a 2-hour delay for you!
I'm here with the latest information on Winter Storm Caly for tomorrow evening. We're starting to get a bit better model agreement. The Euro has caved to the GFS, so we can begin to discuss totals with a great deal of higher confidence than we did last evening. And here's what we can expect, in terms of snow, ice, and school impacts.
On the immediate shoreline, from North Branford-Ridgefield-Deep River: 1-3" of snow is possible, with a bit of ice but plenty of rain as the morning moves on. I think that delays are likely in this region, but it will be very tough to get closings as the precipitation transitions to just plain rain through the morning hours.
Inland but SOUTH of the Litchfield Hills and northeastern CT, including greater Hartford and the I-91 corridor: 2-4" of snow is likely, with a transition to, potentially, a period of prolonged icing as the surface temperatures slowly rise to above freezing but not until about noon...so this could be a very serious issue. I do expect most schools here to be closed completely, but this is a very fragile forecast as, if it changes to rain more quickly than expected, delays would be the most widespread scenario.
Inland IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS and along and north of the I-84 corridor (and into the Naugatuck Valley, which tends to hold onto cold air longer than the surrounding areas), including Waterbury, Litchfield and Torrington- 3-6" of snow is possible, with the highest amounts in the far northwestern portions of the state (I'm looking at you, Norfolk!) but still a pretty decent snow event for this part of the state. Given a pretty decent amount of snow (the grass will be totally covered and with the cold air it will stick very willingly...followed by several hours of ice (it will be very tough to get surface temps above freezing here), it is very likely schools will totally close in this region.
As for WestConn...my final exams are Monday...which means this is a critical forecast for me. I do not even know what to think here...as we are going to be right on the very fringe. Danbury should get about 3" of snow followed by a decent amount of ice. I do think that the morning finals will be cancelled but...I have less confidence in the afternoon finals. This will be a brutal call for the president to make...so we'll see what happens!
I know I have many readers of this blog in New Haven- I am officially forecasting a 2-hour delay for you!
Friday, December 9, 2016
12/9- STORM WATCH- Snow or a Mess means Yucky Monday...Cold Also!
Happy Friday everyone!
Well, this will be very interesting this week. The overnight models are coming into a bit better agreement but...still, some noticeably big differences do exist. We're walking a very fine line here but...I will be able to make my first guess with numbers later on in this blog post. That said, the numbers that I show...especially along and south of 84...could go up if the storm more closely follows the CMC/Euro forecasts. I think the models are somewhat overdoing the amount of warm air in the system...especially if it passes weakly to our south. There is certainly an icing risk as well- in fact, it's a high one as the really cold air in place over CT this weekend will be really tough to get rid of! Highs today will only be in the mid-30s, and then the low 30s tomorrow(!!) before we do introduce snow to the forecast for your Monday. Another snow event is possible Tuesday/Wednesday, and still another Fri/Sat...we have an active time ahead!
Alright. Here is my initial forecast.
I am trouble uploading my map this morning. Hopefully this will be resolved by tomorrow (I will post again in the morning). That said, my general thinking *so far* is 1-3" on the shoreline, 3-6" inland between say exit 9 on I-91, Ridgefield, parts of Danbury, and the Connecticut River Valley. Everyone else is in more of a 5-10" range, which includes the northwest and northeast hills and the northern Naugatuck Valley, including Waterbury, as these areas tend to hold onto cold air for longer. This is, essentially, along and north of I-84.
That said, after this is done, the cold air will be very stubborn at the surface and I think a prolonged period of icing is possible. Also, keep the following in mind- a weaker, more southern track would actually increase these 5-10" totals in their coverage- it would stretch nearly to the shoreline in some computer guidance. Also, a more westward track and we're looking at 2-5" or 3-6" everywhere...with more concern about icing. Either way, a nasty and plowable event appears likely!
TWC has named the system Winter Storm Caly. Unless WFSB names the system...I will continue to refer to this one as Caly.
Well, this will be very interesting this week. The overnight models are coming into a bit better agreement but...still, some noticeably big differences do exist. We're walking a very fine line here but...I will be able to make my first guess with numbers later on in this blog post. That said, the numbers that I show...especially along and south of 84...could go up if the storm more closely follows the CMC/Euro forecasts. I think the models are somewhat overdoing the amount of warm air in the system...especially if it passes weakly to our south. There is certainly an icing risk as well- in fact, it's a high one as the really cold air in place over CT this weekend will be really tough to get rid of! Highs today will only be in the mid-30s, and then the low 30s tomorrow(!!) before we do introduce snow to the forecast for your Monday. Another snow event is possible Tuesday/Wednesday, and still another Fri/Sat...we have an active time ahead!
Alright. Here is my initial forecast.
That said, after this is done, the cold air will be very stubborn at the surface and I think a prolonged period of icing is possible. Also, keep the following in mind- a weaker, more southern track would actually increase these 5-10" totals in their coverage- it would stretch nearly to the shoreline in some computer guidance. Also, a more westward track and we're looking at 2-5" or 3-6" everywhere...with more concern about icing. Either way, a nasty and plowable event appears likely!
TWC has named the system Winter Storm Caly. Unless WFSB names the system...I will continue to refer to this one as Caly.
Thursday, December 8, 2016
12/8- STORM WATCH- Significant Snowstorm Monday?
Good Thursday all-
Fun times are ahead in the weather world for me and other meteorologists but maybe not for the majority of people. Models turned the corner last night and now instead of Sunday being a light event...it's now possible that it is our first truly 'major' snowstorm of the 2016-17 winter season. It appears that the clipper system now wants to intensify off the coast and act as a coastal low. All of the models are now showing this scenario, with the Euro being the last holdout to jump on board, which it did last night. In such a scenario...we would expect a decently large amount of snow, accompanied by gusty winds as well out of the northeast. A plausible worst case scenario would be something along the lines of 5-10" of snow with locally up to one foot. This is not the most likely scenario...but it's on the table. Right now, it's really early but if I had to guess...I think I'd say 4-8", which is still a significant event. The Weather Channel has named the system Winter Storm Caly...and it will be interesting towards school impacts Monday. As this is the first storm of the year, it's possible that most schools would be closed, but obviously a LOT remains up in the air with this system. We'll see what happens! Either way, it's not the biggest snowstorm we've had, but it's not the smallest either!
In the meantime, we can expect very cold temperatures- we are going to be hard pressed to get to freezing on Saturday...and snow showers possible from some of those Great Lakes streamers.
More snow is possible at the end of next week, but that is so far out it's not worth more than a brief mention at this time. This is an extremely active pattern to start the winter and it shows no sign of going anywhere before New Year's, so the fun has just begun!
Today in weather history- December 8 has not had any significant weather events worth mentioning in this slot today.
All eyes are on Caly...I will post the latest developments here tomorrow...and throughout the weekend as well. This one is especially important to me as I have two finals on Monday- it looks very iffy to say the least!!
Fun times are ahead in the weather world for me and other meteorologists but maybe not for the majority of people. Models turned the corner last night and now instead of Sunday being a light event...it's now possible that it is our first truly 'major' snowstorm of the 2016-17 winter season. It appears that the clipper system now wants to intensify off the coast and act as a coastal low. All of the models are now showing this scenario, with the Euro being the last holdout to jump on board, which it did last night. In such a scenario...we would expect a decently large amount of snow, accompanied by gusty winds as well out of the northeast. A plausible worst case scenario would be something along the lines of 5-10" of snow with locally up to one foot. This is not the most likely scenario...but it's on the table. Right now, it's really early but if I had to guess...I think I'd say 4-8", which is still a significant event. The Weather Channel has named the system Winter Storm Caly...and it will be interesting towards school impacts Monday. As this is the first storm of the year, it's possible that most schools would be closed, but obviously a LOT remains up in the air with this system. We'll see what happens! Either way, it's not the biggest snowstorm we've had, but it's not the smallest either!
In the meantime, we can expect very cold temperatures- we are going to be hard pressed to get to freezing on Saturday...and snow showers possible from some of those Great Lakes streamers.
More snow is possible at the end of next week, but that is so far out it's not worth more than a brief mention at this time. This is an extremely active pattern to start the winter and it shows no sign of going anywhere before New Year's, so the fun has just begun!
Today in weather history- December 8 has not had any significant weather events worth mentioning in this slot today.
All eyes are on Caly...I will post the latest developments here tomorrow...and throughout the weekend as well. This one is especially important to me as I have two finals on Monday- it looks very iffy to say the least!!
Wednesday, December 7, 2016
12/7- Drying out, Cold Weekend ending with Heavy Snow?
Good Wednesday all-
Oh boy is it going to be getting chilly out there in the very near future! In fact, although today will be nice. Saturday looks AWFUL with highs below freezing. and that's just an appetizer! Some of the next eight days or so look almost historically cold, with especial concern about next Thursday...where is it possible that some of us don't get above 20 all day?!?!?!
The other big concern in the next week is the *potential* of the first really significant snow event Sunday and Monday. Some models are indicating as much as a 5-10" snowfall in the northern half of our state, which would of course really snarl the roads up nicely. Let's watch that closely- I certainly will be as I have a bunch of final exams on Monday...right now, I have my doubts they will be occurring! The first named storm this year will be Albie...it's not out of the realm of possibility this is the one. In any event, the big story next week is clearly the big snowstorm and the cold.
^^ New GFS showing generally five to ten inches of snow for areas along and north of 81. Any colder air and this could extend to the rest of the state very easily.
Take care on the roads this morning- they are very icy and there have been dozens of accidents!
Oh boy is it going to be getting chilly out there in the very near future! In fact, although today will be nice. Saturday looks AWFUL with highs below freezing. and that's just an appetizer! Some of the next eight days or so look almost historically cold, with especial concern about next Thursday...where is it possible that some of us don't get above 20 all day?!?!?!
The other big concern in the next week is the *potential* of the first really significant snow event Sunday and Monday. Some models are indicating as much as a 5-10" snowfall in the northern half of our state, which would of course really snarl the roads up nicely. Let's watch that closely- I certainly will be as I have a bunch of final exams on Monday...right now, I have my doubts they will be occurring! The first named storm this year will be Albie...it's not out of the realm of possibility this is the one. In any event, the big story next week is clearly the big snowstorm and the cold.
^^ New GFS showing generally five to ten inches of snow for areas along and north of 81. Any colder air and this could extend to the rest of the state very easily.
Take care on the roads this morning- they are very icy and there have been dozens of accidents!
Tuesday, December 6, 2016
12/6- Chilly Today, More Snow
Good Tuesday all-
Well, I got a total of roughly 0.5" of snow yesterday morning, which is very close to what I expected and will gladly accept. Tonight, we get to do it all over again- in fact, tonight's system and yesterday's look remarkably similar and we can expect some snow and mixed precipitation tonight...and we will likely have the morning commute snarled once again with a wintry mix. I am very concerned about some icing tonight as well, and I do once again expect schools from around Meriden north to be delayed...and some areas to the south, particularly in the Naugatuck and CT river valleys, which tend to hold onto the cold air for longer than the areas not in that region...and have it arrive first, which is important tonight, because this will be one of those unusual situations where it is rain first, then changing to snow, which is the reverse of our typical weather! Granted, it won't accumulate much- it will be tough to even get 1" of snow out of this...but the timing is horrid. Highs today will be in the mid 40s...and unbelievably that will be the warmest temperature we get in the next week, with snow or mixed precipitation possible on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday...ouch. It certainly is an active start to winter- the exact opposite of last year!
Today in weather history- December 6, 1970- A windstorm strikes Washington, DC, and the Christmas Tree at the White House falls over!
Well, I got a total of roughly 0.5" of snow yesterday morning, which is very close to what I expected and will gladly accept. Tonight, we get to do it all over again- in fact, tonight's system and yesterday's look remarkably similar and we can expect some snow and mixed precipitation tonight...and we will likely have the morning commute snarled once again with a wintry mix. I am very concerned about some icing tonight as well, and I do once again expect schools from around Meriden north to be delayed...and some areas to the south, particularly in the Naugatuck and CT river valleys, which tend to hold onto the cold air for longer than the areas not in that region...and have it arrive first, which is important tonight, because this will be one of those unusual situations where it is rain first, then changing to snow, which is the reverse of our typical weather! Granted, it won't accumulate much- it will be tough to even get 1" of snow out of this...but the timing is horrid. Highs today will be in the mid 40s...and unbelievably that will be the warmest temperature we get in the next week, with snow or mixed precipitation possible on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday...ouch. It certainly is an active start to winter- the exact opposite of last year!
Today in weather history- December 6, 1970- A windstorm strikes Washington, DC, and the Christmas Tree at the White House falls over!
Monday, December 5, 2016
12/5- Snow to Start the Week
Good Monday all-
Here we go, a widespread accumulating snow for many people today- but not a significant accumulation. That said, the roads are a total mess, and most everyone north of the immediate shoreline and west of I-91 has picked up a 2-hour delay, which is probably the right call as the snow will change to rain around 9 and end completely around 10...so a delay certainly makes sense here. This is very similar to what I expected...so I'll give myself a victory here to move to 1-1 (I consider the foot of snow in the hills about two weeks ago a loss- I totally missed that!) on the young winter season. My thoughts have not changed much whatsoever since yesterday, but the roads are quite a bit messier than I expected they would be so please stay safe out there as you head to work and school- particularly if you have no delay. Thankfully, tomorrow looks significantly better...at least before the evening, when another wintry mix moves in. This one, however, should change to rain much quicker...well, except not in the hills, which may pickup another inch or two and thus see more school delays on Wednesday. Thursday's storm is a miss, so I'll go with scattered flurries, and add a chance of snow somewhere in the Sunday or Monday of next week timeframe...though that is, of course, not unexpected for December.
As for my winter predictions for this year- as what better time is there to give it than on the first statewide accumulation- is that this will be extra snowy with either average to slightly above average temperatures. For Bradley...I think I will go with 70", which is almost twice the average and would put this in the top 10 all time winters...while at Bridgeport, 40" would put this at about the Hartford average...and that should work quite nicely. Let's see how accurate this turns out to be!
Here we go, a widespread accumulating snow for many people today- but not a significant accumulation. That said, the roads are a total mess, and most everyone north of the immediate shoreline and west of I-91 has picked up a 2-hour delay, which is probably the right call as the snow will change to rain around 9 and end completely around 10...so a delay certainly makes sense here. This is very similar to what I expected...so I'll give myself a victory here to move to 1-1 (I consider the foot of snow in the hills about two weeks ago a loss- I totally missed that!) on the young winter season. My thoughts have not changed much whatsoever since yesterday, but the roads are quite a bit messier than I expected they would be so please stay safe out there as you head to work and school- particularly if you have no delay. Thankfully, tomorrow looks significantly better...at least before the evening, when another wintry mix moves in. This one, however, should change to rain much quicker...well, except not in the hills, which may pickup another inch or two and thus see more school delays on Wednesday. Thursday's storm is a miss, so I'll go with scattered flurries, and add a chance of snow somewhere in the Sunday or Monday of next week timeframe...though that is, of course, not unexpected for December.
As for my winter predictions for this year- as what better time is there to give it than on the first statewide accumulation- is that this will be extra snowy with either average to slightly above average temperatures. For Bradley...I think I will go with 70", which is almost twice the average and would put this in the top 10 all time winters...while at Bridgeport, 40" would put this at about the Hartford average...and that should work quite nicely. Let's see how accurate this turns out to be!
Sunday, December 4, 2016
12/4- Update on Tomorrow's Snow Event
Good Sunday all-
I just wanted to provide an update as to the snowfall that is on the way for tonight but especially tomorrow morning during the morning rush hour. Now this won't be a major snowstorm by any means- I think 1-2" is a good guess- but with the heaviest of the snow falling at like 8 this could still be an issue. In fact, I suspect that many schools tomorrow will have a delay tomorrow. Even past that though, the roads will still be a bit slick, so please stand by on the roads. The rest of the week looks interesting as well, with a mix to rain on Wednesday and then a very fragile situation indeed potentially for Thursday- that's the one we have to watch the closest as if everything comes together it could be a significant snowstorm- and we appear to be entering an extremely active pattern in general. It's one that if it lasts the entire winter would probably break records. Of course, this is not overly likely, but it's fun for snow lovers to dream :)
The odds of a delay for areas north of the immediate shoreline are 60%. The odds of one on the immediate shoreline are about 40%. I do not expect any closures tomorrow as the snow will either change to rain or end by the late morning.
I just wanted to provide an update as to the snowfall that is on the way for tonight but especially tomorrow morning during the morning rush hour. Now this won't be a major snowstorm by any means- I think 1-2" is a good guess- but with the heaviest of the snow falling at like 8 this could still be an issue. In fact, I suspect that many schools tomorrow will have a delay tomorrow. Even past that though, the roads will still be a bit slick, so please stand by on the roads. The rest of the week looks interesting as well, with a mix to rain on Wednesday and then a very fragile situation indeed potentially for Thursday- that's the one we have to watch the closest as if everything comes together it could be a significant snowstorm- and we appear to be entering an extremely active pattern in general. It's one that if it lasts the entire winter would probably break records. Of course, this is not overly likely, but it's fun for snow lovers to dream :)
The odds of a delay for areas north of the immediate shoreline are 60%. The odds of one on the immediate shoreline are about 40%. I do not expect any closures tomorrow as the snow will either change to rain or end by the late morning.
Friday, December 2, 2016
12/2- Active Pattern Begins Next Week, but Nice for Now
HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!
Well, it's a very nice day once again today, especially for December, with highs likely reaching the 50s with mostly sunny skies and light winds, so we should be golden for today. We drop the temperatures down by a significant amount tomorrow, however, and we will certainly be stuck in the 40s- likely the middle portion of that range. Sunday looks even cooler, and I would hedge a bet that some of the hill towns are stuck in the 30s, but we will have to see. Some complex setups could give us at least some snow next week, with a risk on three days- Monday (which would just be a few flurries here and there), Tuesday (where a complex storm system could drop several inches if everything comes together in a certain way) and Thursday (when a coastal storm forms just to our south). We certainly will be watching closely!
The odds of 1+" of snow in central CT per day are the following:
Monday- 5%
Tuesday- 25%
Thursday- 30%
Today in weather history- December 2, 1925- A bizarre late season tropical storm strikes western Florida, just south of Tampa Bay, before proceeding across the state and becoming a hurricane strength extratropical cyclone and striking the Outer Banks. 73 people are killed by the system- most of them offshore in ships caught off guard by the unusually late season storm.
Well, it's a very nice day once again today, especially for December, with highs likely reaching the 50s with mostly sunny skies and light winds, so we should be golden for today. We drop the temperatures down by a significant amount tomorrow, however, and we will certainly be stuck in the 40s- likely the middle portion of that range. Sunday looks even cooler, and I would hedge a bet that some of the hill towns are stuck in the 30s, but we will have to see. Some complex setups could give us at least some snow next week, with a risk on three days- Monday (which would just be a few flurries here and there), Tuesday (where a complex storm system could drop several inches if everything comes together in a certain way) and Thursday (when a coastal storm forms just to our south). We certainly will be watching closely!
The odds of 1+" of snow in central CT per day are the following:
Monday- 5%
Tuesday- 25%
Thursday- 30%
Today in weather history- December 2, 1925- A bizarre late season tropical storm strikes western Florida, just south of Tampa Bay, before proceeding across the state and becoming a hurricane strength extratropical cyclone and striking the Outer Banks. 73 people are killed by the system- most of them offshore in ships caught off guard by the unusually late season storm.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
12/1- December Starts Beautiful
Good Thursday all-
Wow, I've been awful at updating lately. My schedule has been a mess but it's clearing up a bit now and I should be back to typical five-day-a-week updating beginning today. In any event, we've got a wonderful day coming up today as the rain finally departs- but boy did we need it- so we can deal with it gladly and move on. We are heading to the mid 50s today- talk about a great start to the month of December! The next several days look dry, and get progressively cooler until we're stuck in the low 40s by Sunday. There is a slight chance for a wintry mix on Monday, but I am more interested in a storm system around the middle of next week, which looks to be primarily rain but it's fairly close...I will keep you posted.
Yesterday...November 30, 2016...marked the end of a very memorable Atlantic hurricane season, which produced 15 named storms...7 hurricanes...and 3 major hurricanes. This is significantly above normal and continues the active hurricane cycle. Notable storms included Hurricane Alex, which formed in January...Hurricane Hermine...which became the first hurricane to hit Florida in eleven years and impact us here in New England as a tropical storm...Hurricane Matthew, the first category five hurricane in nine years and the deadliest hurricane since 2005's Hurricane Stan, which gave us a scare before clobbering Florida and South Carolina...Hurricane Nicole, a category 4 which hit Bermuda...and Hurricane Otto, the southernmost landfalling Hurricane ever recorded in central America.
Can you believe we're here in the last month of the year? 31 days until 2017!
Wow, I've been awful at updating lately. My schedule has been a mess but it's clearing up a bit now and I should be back to typical five-day-a-week updating beginning today. In any event, we've got a wonderful day coming up today as the rain finally departs- but boy did we need it- so we can deal with it gladly and move on. We are heading to the mid 50s today- talk about a great start to the month of December! The next several days look dry, and get progressively cooler until we're stuck in the low 40s by Sunday. There is a slight chance for a wintry mix on Monday, but I am more interested in a storm system around the middle of next week, which looks to be primarily rain but it's fairly close...I will keep you posted.
Yesterday...November 30, 2016...marked the end of a very memorable Atlantic hurricane season, which produced 15 named storms...7 hurricanes...and 3 major hurricanes. This is significantly above normal and continues the active hurricane cycle. Notable storms included Hurricane Alex, which formed in January...Hurricane Hermine...which became the first hurricane to hit Florida in eleven years and impact us here in New England as a tropical storm...Hurricane Matthew, the first category five hurricane in nine years and the deadliest hurricane since 2005's Hurricane Stan, which gave us a scare before clobbering Florida and South Carolina...Hurricane Nicole, a category 4 which hit Bermuda...and Hurricane Otto, the southernmost landfalling Hurricane ever recorded in central America.
Can you believe we're here in the last month of the year? 31 days until 2017!
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