12/9- STORM WATCH- Snow or a Mess means Yucky Monday...Cold Also!

Happy Friday everyone!

Well, this will be very interesting this week. The overnight models are coming into a bit better agreement but...still, some noticeably big differences do exist. We're walking a very fine line here but...I will be able to make my first guess with numbers later on in this blog post. That said, the numbers that I show...especially along and south of 84...could go up if the storm more closely follows the CMC/Euro forecasts. I think the models are somewhat overdoing the amount of warm air in the system...especially if it passes weakly to our south. There is certainly an icing risk as well- in fact, it's a high one as the really cold air in place over CT this weekend will be really tough to get rid of! Highs today will only be in the mid-30s, and then the low 30s tomorrow(!!) before we do introduce snow to the forecast for your Monday. Another snow event is possible Tuesday/Wednesday, and still another Fri/Sat...we have an active time ahead!

Alright. Here is my initial forecast.

I am trouble uploading my map this morning. Hopefully this will be resolved by tomorrow (I will post again in the morning). That said, my general thinking *so far* is 1-3" on the shoreline, 3-6" inland between say exit 9 on I-91, Ridgefield, parts of Danbury, and the Connecticut River Valley. Everyone else is in more of a 5-10" range, which includes the northwest and northeast hills and the northern Naugatuck Valley, including Waterbury, as these areas tend to hold onto cold air for longer. This is, essentially, along and north of I-84.

That said, after this is done, the cold air will be very stubborn at the surface and I think a prolonged period of icing is possible. Also, keep the following in mind- a weaker, more southern track would actually increase these 5-10" totals in their coverage- it would stretch nearly to the shoreline in some computer guidance. Also, a more westward track and we're looking at 2-5" or 3-6" everywhere...with more concern about icing. Either way, a nasty and plowable event appears likely!

TWC has named the system Winter Storm Caly. Unless WFSB names the system...I will continue to refer to this one as Caly.