Good Tuesday all-
Thursday has gotten more interesting overnight, which is bad news for those who have travel plans...or those who hate snow. We have intense model disagreement, with everything (and I mean everything) still on the table, except for no precipitation. From rain to 2 feet of snow though? There's a clear and distinct path to either possible outcome. I'll discuss below.
What we essentially have going on is two systems trying to merge together into a coastal low off the mid Atlantic coastline. This low appears to be tracking either just barely inside of...or directly over...the 40/70 benchmark. Ordinarily...this is a recipe for a historic snowstorm for Connecticut. The issues we have though are no blocking high to our north to keep the cold air locked in.
This is not necessarily fatal however- we simply have to have the storm be strong enough to create its' own cold air. That, my friends, is where the models are disagreeing.
The GFS and CMC models suggest the storm won't get its' act together until just past the 40/70, and in the Gulf of Maine. This would be a nightmare for that state...but be a chilly rain for us. On the other hand, the Euro(!) and the NAM, feature the storm intensifying just further south...but that's enough to keep it mostly...if not entirely...snow for the state except for the immediate shoreline. In such a scenario, I would call for a massive snowstorm with the potential to see well over a foot of snow....possibly two? In any case, the roof for this one is all-time top 10 range...so that means we really, really, really have to watch this one! For now...know that plans on Thursday and Friday look iffy at best. If the storm system does come together, the heaviest snow would fall Thursday late afternoon into Friday, which would then have to be spent shoveling.
The next name on WFSB's name list is Breanna. Note that this would be the first time since 2012 that two named storms have occurred before the New Year.
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