12/10- STORM WATCH A bit better model agreement- Ice Ice Ice

Good Saturday everyone-

I'm here with the latest information on Winter Storm Caly for tomorrow evening. We're starting to get a bit better model agreement. The Euro has caved to the GFS, so we can begin to discuss totals with a great deal of higher confidence than we did last evening. And here's what we can expect, in terms of snow, ice, and school impacts.


On the immediate shoreline, from North Branford-Ridgefield-Deep River: 1-3" of snow is possible, with a bit of ice but plenty of rain as the morning moves on. I think that delays are likely in this region, but it will be very tough to get closings as the precipitation transitions to just plain rain through the morning hours.

Inland but SOUTH of the Litchfield Hills and northeastern CT, including greater Hartford and the I-91 corridor: 2-4" of snow is likely, with a transition to, potentially, a period of prolonged icing as the surface temperatures slowly rise to above freezing but not until about noon...so this could be a very serious issue. I do expect most schools here to be closed completely, but this is a very fragile forecast as, if it changes to rain more quickly than expected, delays would be the most widespread scenario.

Inland IN THE LITCHFIELD HILLS and along and north of the I-84 corridor (and into the Naugatuck Valley, which tends to hold onto cold air longer than the surrounding areas), including Waterbury, Litchfield and Torrington- 3-6" of snow is possible, with the highest amounts in the far northwestern portions of the state (I'm looking at you, Norfolk!) but still a pretty decent snow event for this part of the state. Given a pretty decent amount of snow (the grass will be totally covered and with the cold air it will stick very willingly...followed by several hours of ice (it will be very tough to get surface temps above freezing here), it is very likely schools will totally close in this region.

As for WestConn...my final exams are Monday...which means this is a critical forecast for me. I do not even know what to think here...as we are going to be right on the very fringe. Danbury should get about 3" of snow followed by a decent amount of ice. I do think that the morning finals will be cancelled but...I have less confidence in the afternoon finals. This will be a brutal call for the president to make...so we'll see what happens!

I know I have many readers of this blog in New Haven- I am officially forecasting a 2-hour delay for you!