8/5- Isaias Breaks Records...and the Heat

Good Wednesday all-

And a quiet Wednesday too! The next few days look very nice, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s, abundant sunshine, and light winds. It's a perfect day for storm cleanup, but please do so safely and RUN YOUR GENERATORS OUTSIDE...or else you're in big trouble. The next chance of rain comes Friday as a low pressure system moves up the East coast, but it doesn't look like anything especially widespread or more than a minor nuisance before a very nice weekend sets up as well.

I'll have a post on Isaias later tonight- including some pictures, so keep an eye out for that!!!

Irene, Sandy, Isaias- Today is One for the History Books

Good evening everyone-

Well, I was concerned about this storm early today as you know. I did not expect it to be necessarily this bad. As of 10:45 PM, this is the second biggest power outage event in Connecticut state history, trailing only the Halloween nor'easter of 2011. Roughly 700,000 people have lost power, and unfortunately when the numbers are that big, there is no way that these won't be prolonged. In fact, it is extremely likely that some will have no power for a week or more. 

The peak gust in Connecticut today was in West Haven, which measured a wind gust to 75mph- hurricane force! The storm in terms of wind was by far the worst since Gloria- Irene only had a peak gust of 50-60! But today was amazing for so many reasons that it's hard to begin to explain. 

In about a six hour timeframe, Connecticut has been ravaged by one of the worst storms in its' history. That is a fact. What contributed to this, and how so much damage occurred in essentially a 6-hour window, is something that will be studied relentlessly for years to come- there is no doubt about that. My thoughts and prayers go out to those who have lost family today in CT- which we know at least one person has died (in my hometown no less)- and to those who have severe damage to their houses, have no power, etc.

This has been an amazing day of weather for me personally as well. It's amazing what can happen when mother nature decides to unleash her wrath. 18 of 24 hours today were extremely ordinary, typical weather. 

But those other six hours will go down in history, and the memories of the events that took place in that timeframe will last for a lifetime. 700,000 is a number so high for power outages, it's truly hard to fathom. Hopefully the restoration goes smoothly and it's not too long, but I'm concerned.

Also, when paired with Fay earlier in the year, this is only the third time in history that multiple tropical cyclones have hit Connecticut in the same year- the others are 1954 (Carol and Edna) and 1985 (Henri and Gloria)

I'll write lots more tomorrow, but I leave you with this: today's storm had a maximum sustained wind of 70mph at its' closest approach to CT- barely below hurricane strength. It's nothing in the tropical world though. In 1938, a 120 mph sustained wind hurricane hit Connecticut directly. When that next happens- and it's not if but when- the damage we saw today will look like nothing. Let's hope it's a long way off.

And by the way, it's only very early August- barely the beginning of the season. We have a long few months to go. This is not going to be the last threat to the northeast this year. We'll be watching. 

Isaias To Pound CT Today, Biggest Storm in 8 Years

Good Tuesday all-

There are so many warnings, I could not list them all without taking up the entire page. The one that matters though is:

A **TROPICAL STORM WARNING** is up for all of Connecticut- an extremely rare event.

Well, that escalated quickly. Early yesterday, all the model tracks jumped about 50 miles west, which takes us out of the heaviest rain, but unfortunately that is very bad news as it puts us directly in line for the maximum wind of the storm. For now, Tropical Storm Isaias is a 70mph tropical storm, and it should be roughly that intensity when it arrives in New England later this afternoon. The worst of the weather today will occur between 1 and 9 PM, with winds gusting to 60-70 mph likely, especially along the shore. Expect widespread power outages, isolated downpours, and tornadoes. 

Folks, I cannot stress this enough- this is not Fay. This storm will be much more impactful- in fact, it is likely that the weather itself will be as bad, or worse than, it was during Irene and Sandy. Not to say the impact will necessarily be that bad, but the wind will be stronger. The good news is that the surge should be minimal, but that doesn't help if you lose power for an extended period inland, which some of you will. I know this isn't exactly the news you want to hear, but this is the truth.

This is a serious, serious event. Please prepare like you would for an Irene/Sandy type event. That's the level of trouble we are looking at here. Be safe all.

I'm Back...Tracking Isaias

Hi everyone-

First off, I cannot apologize enough for my year and a half absence from the blog. Life has been crazy for all of us for the last several months, and school has been busy...but still, that's no excuse. I promise I will update more often. Like, hopefully most days. 

Anyway, onto the main topic in the weather world right now, which is newly formed Tropical Storm Isaias (pronunced Ee-Sy-Ee-Us), currently located over Hispainola. Models are suggesting that this system will make a very close run on southern New England on Tuesday, and every possibility remains on the table from a few clouds, to a heavy rain and wind storm, to the biggest hurricane to hit New England since Bob in 1991. Hopefully we will have a better idea on the final result later today, but right now the center is very poorly defined as it is in the process of transitioning to an area north of the big islands. This is quite similar to what we saw Dorian do last year, but there are plenty of key differences to note: the first is that the environment is not quite as promising for strengthening due to shear, and it will move much faster. That said, a significant hurricane is likely to be over the Bahamas by Saturday. It will then be swept to the north and ultimately pass, most likely, within the 40/70 benchmark. This would result in at least a torrential rain event. The bigger problems, though, come if it can ride a bit farther west, which the Euro ensemble members are favoring, which would result in a Gloria-type track riding the coast all the way up and slamming the region as a category two hurricane. That's not exactly likely...but it's not impossible either, so we have to keep a very close eye on this. If nothing else, please review your hurricane plans as the already insanely active 2020 hurricane season continues to churn out storm after storm at record pace (we're nearly 3 weeks ahead of 2005, believe it or not!). In fact, Isaias is by far the earliest 9th named storm on record! It's actually quite likely that 2020 will go down as the second most active atlantic season ever recorded and exhaust the entire name list, requiring the use of the greek alphabet for only the second time ever. The 2005 record of 28 named storms, while unlikely, is not unreachable either considering the peak of the hurricane season is Aug/Sept/Oct. Should we get 5 named storms in each, then 2 in November, we would add another 17 named storms to the current 9...which is 26, and would get us to the fifth letter of the greek alphabet (Epsilon). That said, any of these months have had as many as 8 tropical systems form in them, so even if two have 6, we would tie the record...or if a third forms in November (there were 3 in November and 1 in December in 2005). So while a reach to be sure...not impossible!

At this time, the odds of the following in central Connecticut are as follows:

Nothing at all: 10%

A glancing blow, with showery weather and a few gusts: 20%

Heavy Rain, wind (like Hanna in 2008): 45%

A major strike that rivals Irene, Sandy, Gloria, etc: 25%

Why is the heavy rain and wind the most likely scenario? Because the wind field is huge! In fact, so big that even if it passed over the 40/70 benchmark (about 200 mi SE of Cape Cod)- we would still be feeling tropical storm force winds! So that suggests to me that at least some pretty gusty wind and rain is quite likely.

We have to watch this. It's the biggest threat to SNE from a hurricane since Sandy. But we'll see how it goes!

Major Winter Storm Likely This Weekend

Good FRIDAY everyone!

What a miserable day we have in store for Sunday. The entire state is under a WINTER STORM WATCH, which will be upgraded to a warning later today for the 2nd major winter storm of the 18-19 winter.

This is a very complicated forecast, I'm not going to lie to you. The difference of about 50-75 miles is going to be the difference between picking up 10-20" of snow or 0.4-1" of ice accretion. We all are hoping for the former, obviously, because that amount of ice would be absolutely ridiculous and cause numerous power outage issues and significant tree damage. Models do not agree on which is correct at the moment, so I'm going to play it safe and go with something in the middle of the road here, which most of our local TV stations seem to be doing as well. Therefore, my first call for central Connecticut is: 6-12" of snow, followed by 0.3-0.6" of ice accretion. The amount of either of these is highly variable, and should be monitored carefully over the next 24 hours to see if we trend in either direction. Monday is already a day off for the vast majority of school districts, but if you have school, you probably won't: I expect all districts that do have school in session to be closed completely on Monday to allow time to shovel and move the snow!

I'll update again after the mid-day model runs today. Let's see what happens!

1/16- Tracking the Weekend

Good Wednesday all-

A couple of interesting weather events are on the way here in Connecticut, with two winter events of note taking place in the next five days.

The first is Friday, as a quick moving coastal low brushes by our area and drops a light accumulating snow during the early morning hours. At the moment, inland areas can expect a general storm total of 2-4" inland, and 1-3" on the shoreline. Someone in the northwest hills has an outside chance of getting 6", but that total is unlikely for most of the state as it should change over to rain during the early morning hours (Around 8 AM). That said, considering the timing, many schools will be forced to delay away from the immediate shoreline. Some more cautious districts...or those in the hills, may even close completely if enough snow falls during that time.

The second, Saturday night into Sunday, has the *potential* to be much, much more significant as a MASSIVE storm is set to develop over our region. The track here means everything, and all events from mostly rain to two feet of snow remains in play. Right now, it looks like something in between- say 8-12" of snow followed by half an inch of ice followed by another 1-3" of snow...ouch. Any further south with the path would yield a snowstorm with multiple feet, and any further west/north would yield more ice and less snow. Let's just wait and see- I'll keep you posted as we approach the event that could well be Winter Storm Yoshi.

1/6- Slippery Commute Likely

Good evening everyone-

*A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* is up for Litchfield and interior Fairfield Counties*

Having said that, the conditions those two areas experience tonight will really be felt statewide as a minor area of low pressure passes through SNE from west to east. While no true accumulation is expected (someone that gets very unlucky in the hills could get 1"). That said, the timing of this, as well as an eventual changeover, is what makes this tricky- we should see the snow begin to mix and change to rain around 6 AM across the shoreline and a bit later inland. Thus, it is entirely possible that some schools end up delaying tomorrow, especially since very few have actually had any weather related problems so far in what has been a rather quiet winter.

There's not really a point in making an accumulation map, and as long as you take a bit of extra time on your morning ride tomorrow you'll have no problem.

Sunday has the potential to be a more significant issue, but that's a story for another time, as details as one would expect are iffy considering we are 6 days out still.

So ends the first week of 2019. That flew- the year is now 1/52nd over :P

1/5/19- It's Been Forever

Greetings to everyone-

First off, there are no words that I can use to explain my absence for ten months- frankly, it's been one thing after another after another, and many of them have been good- but the bottom line is that I should never have been gone for that long. It will not happen again, and I have no way to say sorry other than to give my word that I will continue to blog for the future. Perhaps not every day like it once was, but at minimum several times a week- especially if a major storm is on the horizon.

In any case, over the last year, a tornado hit my house and did serious damage on May 15, we experienced the 5th wettest year on record, and watched as Hurricanes Florence and Michael devastated areas south of us. After an early snowstorm on November 15th (the 3rd earliest 6" snowfall on record), we've largely had a quiet winter, and with the pattern we have at this moment, it looks like that should mostly continue for another week or so. Some icing is certainly possible Monday night into Tuesday, which could snarl up some commutes Tuesday morning for sure. Today, you can expect it to rain on and off all day! Ugh. Generally 0.5" of rain is expected, and although not nearly as bad as it looked like it would be a few days ago, a 37 degree rain is downright nasty for sure! Tomorrow we're looking at temperatures in the mid-40s, then a generally cool and seasonable week should follow with any issues being confined to the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.

For more information, feel free to follow me on twitter at @stevectweather!

Again, my deepest apologies for not updating for so, so long. Hope you all had a great holiday season!

Happy 2019- see you real soon!

3/22- I Don't Dream of Genny- Epic Fail

Good Thursday all-

I want to say, on behalf of all the meteorologists in Connecticut, sorry! This was an unusually difficult storm to forecast because of the presence of dry air. What happened yesterday was that the dry air line, which was forecasted by most models to be in Hartford, ended up in New Haven. The end result is that Long Island got the snow we were expecting, whilst we got the dreaded dry area and about half of my advertised minimum snowfall.

This is something that will teach me a lesson, as all busts are. This one, however, is more notable in the sense that it was a high impact forecast that occurred during the middle of the week and the school closures and early dismissals we had yesterday wound up being wholly unnecessary. That is something that we're always trying to improve on, and even if we don't get another chance to do it this winter, we'll be talking about heavy snow potential again in just eight short months- and more experience will be in the books for us.

One last note- I have seen many AWFUL posts directed towards our local TV meteorologists insulting them ruthlessly. I beg you- please refrain from doing that. We all do what we can, and I hope that people realize this is a much more difficult job than they think it is.

All the best.

3/14- Pi isn't Snowy, but Today is

Good Wednesday all-

Happy hump day!

There is a risk of snow this afternoon, I'm afraid- some squalls could drop 1-3" of snow in parts of Connecticut this afternoon. Timing of this would be around 4-5PM, though the exact timing will be vaired depending on exactly what squall you get into, etc. through the afternoon. On the heels of Winter Storm Ferris though, this will feel like nothing....so at least there is that. Unfortunately, there remain strong signs of a nor'easter for the middle of next week- we have to watch that closely. Otherwise the rest of the week looks dry with below average temperatures, with the exception of Sunday, when we will be near if not a bit above 50 degrees. Spring *is* coming, it's just taking a while to get here.

Well, that was Interesting

Greetings-

Oh my, well that was an interesting forecast today. Essentially, we had two bands that dropped heavy amounts of snow. One was, as expected, over the eastern sections of our state, and dropped about two feet of snow. The other set up shop essentially along and west of the Rt. 8 corridor in western Connecticut. In other areas, very little in the way of accumulation occurred. At my house in Naugatuck, I picked up between ten and twelve inches, as I was under the western band, but my grandmother in Branford got only 3", and New Haven (literally a 10 minute drive to my south) picked up a whopping total of...nothing. Yeesh. That this happened is not a surprise, but the placement of the western band was to some degree and yielded much higher totals than expected in western sections, while causing a forecast bust for many in the central area. Go figure.

Surely, after three massive nor'easter hits, this is over now right?...Sadly, no, there are several more threats for coastal storms and major snowfalls, the next of which is Tuesday of next week.

It is worth noting that today's snow has pushed my backyard's seasonal snowfall total over 70". That makes this winter the second snowiest of my lifetime, trailing only 2010-11, which produced about 85". Looking at the forecast for the next few weeks...it honestly is not impossible to get there. I'll be watching. Thankfully, unless the weather goes insane over the next few weeks, the all-time record of 115.2" is almost undoubtedly safe for another winter (Another 45" of snow seems more than a bit difficult). Additionally, this is only the second time in the last 22 years that we have used the 'F' name for a storm. The other, 2014-15, culminated with Winter Storm Gavin. The next name on the list is Genny...and we'll see if it comes Tuesday because there is a legitimate shot.

3.7- Winter Storm Elsa/Quinn Clobbers CT

Good Wednesday all-

As you know, the entire state is under a WINTER STORM WARNING...except for far southeastern areas.

Well, I apologize for not updating on this one before this, but things like school take up a lot more time now than they have in the past.

Having said that, this looks like the most significant snowstorm for much of our region since the Great Blizzard of 2013. Overall, expect ten to twenty inches of accumulation over the entire state, with locally as much as two feet possible. The snow will be heavy as a general rule, but probably will be around 10:1 ratios which is roughly average for our region. The main part of the snow will be between 2PM and 1AM, with snow accumulating at times as much as 4"/hr, strong winds, and thundersnow! We are also watching Monday closely for the risk of another very substantial snowstorm, but we'll have to see how exactly that plays out.

By the way, if you're interested in more weather, you can find me on the youtube channel "WCSU meteorology" Tuesday's at 4PM...and the channel "CTV192" on Thursday mornings at 11AM or so.

Stay warm & safe today!

2/17- Quick HItting but Very Intense Snowfall Tonight

Good Saturday everyone-

All of Connecticut is under a Winter Storm Warning

Well, we're getting agreement on the models, and it looks like the statewide average for snow will be around 6". Thus, 4-8" seems reasonable, but I wouldn't be shocked if some areas come close to a double-digit accumulation. This storm is moving very, very quickly and will only last about 8-10 horus, but the snowfall rates will be extremely, extremely impressive. Wind should be a non-factor with this thing, but the roads tomorrow morning will be tricky and plans should be made if you cannot get out during the morning hours tomorrow. Beyond that, though- we have temperatures near 70 possible by midweek before we have to watch another storm threat for Thursday, but this one looks to stay well out to sea. That could change though...so we'll wait and see as we get closer.

Stay warm & have those shovels ready tonight!!

2/16- WINTER STORM WATCH

Happy Friday all-

A WINTER STORM WATCH is up for the entire state.

A significant snow event is now likely tomorrow night. A clipper-like system is going to be moving through our region and rapidly intensifying off the coast, and spinning snow into southern New England. The snow accumulation forecast is a bit difficult, but at this time accumulations of four to eight inches appear to be reasonable. As for the timing of this, it would be hard to choose a time that would be less impactful- we're talking about 9 PM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday- which is great for commuters, and even better- it's going to be very warm beyond that, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday...so all in all, it's really not too bad, but we have tomorrow's snow to get through.

I'll have the latest on what will probably be Winter Storm Dakota either later tonight or tomorrow morning.

1/31- Tracking Sunday...and Oops

Good Wednesday all-

The egg is on all meteorologists faces this morning after yesterday's storm jogged way further west than indicated by any computer model, and as a result dropped a whopping seven inches of snow on New London county. Yikes! My apologies for missing that one- it just goes to show that nature will sometimes do what it wants, and we're all just passengers on the journey.

On another note, the next time period to watch for a significant event is Sunday into Monday. The Friday morning commute also looks kinda rough as we get a rather bizarre snow changing to rain changing back to snow event tomorrow and it could leave, say, two inches of snow in parts of the state for that time period, so we definitely want to be careful there.

The Sunday threat looks much more significant. A coastal low will develop along a frontal boundary and, of course, it all comes down to the track. The high end potential of this one would be something like one foot of snow, so we most definitely have to watch this. Needless to say, models are all over the place five days out, so it's simply something to watch as we head into this weekend. There is also a chance of a significant snow event around the middle of next week, but obviously it's way too early to even talk about that one.

^^^The threat for Monday morning.

STATUS QUO

Greetings-

With school starting again, it is more difficult for me to find time to blog. As a result, I will post when there is a >=30% chance of either two or more inches of snow or half an inch or more of rain in the next five days.

Right now, there are NO threats between now and the next five days. The next major threat appears to be Friday, which is just outside this window. Should the odds rise, I'll be here!

1/18- I'm Back- Quiet Weather...Emergency in Kent

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be the last in quite some time to be chilly, as we won't reach the freezing mark, but that will change tomorrow as we finally crack that mark and go above freezing. That will only continue through the weekend, where we likely will see highs in the 50s before a cold front on Monday produces some rain showers and knocks the temperatures back to below freezing once more. Unfortunately, this warmth is causing a potential catastrophe in northwest Connecticut in Kent, where an ice jam is blocking water from proceeding down a river into Long Island Sound. When the ice melts, this will likely result in severe flooding for that region as all the excess water builds up. The hope would be that, instead of melting per se, it simply is allowed to move further down the river. Keep those tiny communities off to our northwest in your thoughts as we move on this weekend. For reference to the severity, Jim Cantore is in Kent this morning. Yikes.


No major snowfalls are in sight anytime in the immediate future, however, the pattern does appear favorable for some white stuff to fall around the 25th.

1/6- Farewell to a Blizzard, Hello to Cold and a Mix

Good Saturday all-

This will be my last post until next weekend- I will be visiting Austin, TX from tomorrow to Friday for the 98th annual AMS meeting.

Today is going to be really, really cold. Highs will struggle to reach even ten degrees during the day today...ouch. In fact, if we end up falling short of double digits, this would be the coldest day in fourteen years. Seriously, bundle up and stay warm today. Thankfully, no precipitation is expected today or tomorrow, but some light snow or a wintry mix is likely Monday night, which could recoat the ground to the tune of an inch or two before we warm things up by the end of the week with highs in the 40s...finally. The next chance for a major snowstorm arrives on Saturday as a low pressure system develops on the trailing edge of a cold front- keep your eyes on it as I do in Texas, and should that become Winter Storm Clare, you'll know!

Looking back on Blizzard Brody, most of the state received between 8 and 12 inches of snow, but it was the jackpot location that was surprising as, instead of eastern Connecticut hitting it big like expected, the highest totals were found around the I-91 corridor. Staffordville hit the jackpot with 16" of snow but I came in a very close second with a snowfall of 15.5" or so in Naugatuck, which was about double what I was expecting to get...so I was delighted!

I hope all of you have a great week and I'll see you next weekend!!

SP

1/4- The Blizzard of '18

Good Thursday all-

A BLIZZARD WARNING is up for New London, New Haven, and Middlesex Counties. Everyone else is under a WINTER STORM WARNING.

So begins Blizzard Brody, and it'll really come down fast throughout the day today. I still like my statewide 7-14" forecast, but I think I may be a bit too low on the high end- an 8-16" may work a bit better especially in central areas, where the heaviest banding appears likely.

Snow has begun, and will be coming down heavily until around 4 PM, with lighter snow and flurries lasting well into the evening. As for school impacts, all schools in the state are CLOSED COMPLETELY today. Tomorrow is a much more difficult forecast. In areas where there are about 7"...at best a delay is likely, whereas areas where 14" occur, schools could well be CLOSED again tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see as this major storm hits our state. Be warm.

Also, a WIND CHILL WATCH is up for northern CT, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see that get expanded to the shoreline- wind chill values likely will be around -30 tomorrow night!

My flight to Texas for later tonight was cancelled, and I'm now leaving on Sunday. I'm sure I'm not the only one in this position!

1/3- Major Snowstorm Tomorrow

Good Wednesday all-

All of Connecticut is under a WINTER STORM WARNING. Do not be surprised, however, if these become BLIZZARD WARNINGS.

A major nor'easter is on the way to New England as a very strong area of low pressure will pass just barely east of the 40/70 benchmark. This is a highly complex forecast, but I am fairly confident in forecasting 7-14" of snow for the entire state, with the highest amounts in the eastern half, and the lowest amounts in extreme western areas. Also of concern will be the wind, which is likely to gust to 40mph inland and 50mph on the shore. This could lead to some isolated power outages, and that'll be miserable as we head into a weekend where overnight lows will be around minus 10 degrees. Yeah...ouch.

Due to slight track variations, the difference between who gets 7" and who gets 14" will not be known until tomorrow during the system. It's certainly possible someone gets a bit more than 14"- I wouldn't be surprised if the storm jackpot was around 20"- but I do not have high confidence that the area will be in Connecticut- in fact, I think it's unlikely (granted, not impossible!).

Stay safe & warm tonight. I'll update in the morning. If you get the chance to look at a satellite image tomorrow- DO IT. You will not be disappointed- this is a beautiful, powerful storm that shows exactly the beauty and strength that mother nature has.