9/30- Nor'easter misses Weds, but not Sat?

Good Tuesday everyone! :)

Today is going to be very nice indeed. I doubt greatly that we get any rain today, and the clouds are going to be really nice in that they should keep temps down as well. A cold front moved through overnight, and so temps may be trapped in the 60s today...and tomorrow...and in fact for the foreseeable future. Certainly we may see 70 again, and it may even happen in the next seven, but it is going to be just barely if we do make it there this week. Showers are possible today...and tomorrow...and Thursday...with then a torrential rainstorm possible Saturday in a combination cold front and nor'easter. Now that would be nice in terms of the fact that we really do need the rain, but the timing couldn't be much worse!

In the Atlantic- Development is not expected anytime soon

In the Pacific- Rachel weakened to a tropical storm and will likely die out today, but it is probably going to be replaced by Simon by Thursday.

Today in weather history- September 30, 1971- One of the oddest tracks in the history of the Atlantic basin as Hurricane Ginger reverses course completely and hits the outer banks as a category one hurricane after spending 20 days as a hurricane, the longest timeframe of any 'cane to spend at that intensity.

Is that not the strangest thing ever? Ginger's track in '71

image source: wikipedia.org

9/29- Like rain? If so, this is the forecast for you!

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be mostly cloudy predominantly, with some light rain possible in the afternoon. In fact, the feat will be repeated tomorrow...and then comes Wednesday. Although the forecast for that day is largely dependent on the track of a nor'easter, we can be reasonably certain that rain will come, but it will likely be only light. Thursday and Friday look nice, but it appears now (granted we are still a ways off) that Saturday will be a complete washout with torrential rain. That would be horrible timing, granted, but we could really use the rain for sure!

In the Atlantic- Wednesday's nor'easter has a 20% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Fay, but I don't really think it will. On the computer models, it looks to me to be a bit more of a cold-core non-tropical system. Otherwise, no threat for development.

In the Pacific- Rachel unexpectedly became the season's 11th hurricane in the Pacific, but it is no threat to land. However, we are far from in the clear, as I expect Tropical Storm Simon to form this week south of Mexico where it seems so many storms have formed this season.

Today in weather history- September 29, 1925- The next time that you think it's pouring outside...it probably isn't raining this hard as 1.75 inches of rain falls in Haughton Grove, Jamaica in a total of...3 minutes! Establishing the world record for three minute rainfall.

9/26- Clearing up!

Good Friday all-

Today is going to be a very nice day once we get rid of the last rain from the nor'easter that ruined the day yesterday. Otherwise, the big weather story is the heat on the way this weekend- mid 80s for some of the warmer spots, especially on Sunday! It is going to be fantastic, so make sure you do something outside, such as the Durham Fair or other activities. The next chance of rain is Tuesday and Wednesday.

In the Atlantic- Tropical Development is not expected anytime soon

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Rachel has 50mph winds this morning and is located 390 miles SSW of the Baja peninsula, and it poses no threat to land.

Today in weather history- September 26, 1936- The airport in Denver, Colorado records 21.3" of snow, establishing their all time record for September in a single storm.

9/25- Here comes the rain!

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be a rather nasty day with heavy rain and some pretty decent wind as a giant nor'easter actually misses us to the southeast, but it doesn't really matter as we will be on the outer fringe enough to still get a pretty darn good rainstorm today, which is really awful timing as it falls on Rosh Hashanah (happy new year to Jewish readers), and I know many people who have today off or at least shortened. The good news, however, is near-record warmth this weekend as temps may reach the 80s, but an early look at next week looks rather awful, as rain is likely on both Tuesday and Wednesday (not that that's a bad thing, as we really need the rain)... It is interesting to note that if this was even two months later, I would be forecasting 6-10 inches of snow with locally as much as one foot. Additionally, the GFS model is indicating several more nor'easters in the next few weeks. If this pattern continues, it could be a crazy winter.

In the Atlantic- There is a small chance of development east of the Antillies, but since it is in an area that is really unfavorable for development right now, I'd be shocked.

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Rachel formed yesterday afternoon and it is unbelievably heading for the Baja on a roundabout path. Fortunately, I don't think it will be particularly strong, maybe a 30-35mph tropical depression by the time it gets there, which would be a huge sigh of relief there after they are still reeling from the impacts of Hurricane Odile.

Today in weather history- September 25, 1939- In a true once in a lifetime event, a tropical storm manages to survive long enough to hit Long Beach, CA as a strong tropical storm, which dumps one foot of rain on Mount Wilson, CA and six inches of rain in LA. This remains the most recent tropical storm to hit California, and is the one of only two storms to ever hit California (the other is a hurricane in 1858).

9/24- Uh oh- what happened to our dry week?

Good Wednesday all-

Before anything else, I want to apologize for the forecast that wasn't so correct for Thursday, as it turns out. Tomorrow is going to be a massive rainstorm- I expect pouring rain all day, and as much as  1-3 or 2-4 inches of rain are possible. Otherwise, the big story is going to be record breaking heat on Sunday, as we may approach as high as 85! Thankfully, humidity will be low, but it will still be scorching for the Durham fair.

Just so everyone knows the quandary that I was put in by Thursday, allow me to explain. There was always going to be a massive storm, but until yesterday, the computer models were putting it offshore by such a great distance that it would be sunny here in Connecticut tomorrow. Instead, the models slowly started bringing it back to the west yesterday morning, and we are now highly confident that we are going to get a major rainstorm tomorrow. It is a truly winterlike system, and therefore should be treated like our giant snowstorms we don't know for sure about until 2-3 days out.


In the Atlantic- No tropical development is expected anytime soon.

In the Pacific- See yesterday's forecast here, there has been no change whatsoever.


Today in weather history- September 24, 1985- Hurricane Gloria reaches peak intensity in the western Atlantic of 919mb, which is among the most intense hurricanes on record at the time (I think it was 5th). The storm has the entire east coast in its' sightline, and remains the most recent hurricane to directly hit Connecticut (Yes, Irene was a Tropical Storm in Litchfield county, and Sandy hit North Jersey- which actually is a worse situation for us than a direct hit). This means we are still overdue for a hurricane, but I suspect that next year is more likely than this based on the horribly quiet season we have enjoyed so far.

9/23- Sudden forecast change

Good Tuesday all-


Sorry about this, but a major forecast change has occurred and now, quite honestly, Thursday has the potential to be a total and complete washout. There is a giant nor'easter that is trying to make it's way towards us, and it appears as though it's going to succeed. If it does come (probably 60-40% right now), several inches of soaking rain would be likely and, quite honestly, that would be very good news for a large number of plants in our area as we could certainly use the rain! Otherwise, 70s and partly cloudy all the way!


In the Atlantic- No development is coming anytime soon.

In the Pacific-  A low off Mexico is about to become Tropical Storm Rachel, but there is no threat to land from this one.


Today in weather history- September 23, 1998- Tropical Storms run amok, as a period of 35 days that end on this day, ten tropical cyclones form, half of which hit the United States. By comparison, the Atlantic has had 5 tropical storms this entire season!

9/22- Adios summer!

Good Monday all (if that's possible, I get it...)

You know what, though? The forecast for today is laughably easy, as it is for the next week...dry weather is going to prevail with temps in the mid-70s on most days (the lone exception is Wednesday, where we may not get to 70, my current thinking is something like 66-69 for most). There is no chance of any precip during the next week...and there is nothing else to say, so congrats!

In the Atlantic- In a highly bizarre event for September, no tropical activity is expected in the next 5 days.

In the Pacific- A low just off Mexico is probably going to become Tropical Storm Rachel tomorrow or Wednesday as it moves northwestward generally offshore and I don't think it poses any real threat to land.

Today in weather history- September 22, 2010- Hurricane Igor hits Newfoundland, bringing 80mph winds to the region as well as 5 inches of rain. Igor is tied with Gustav of 2008 for the closest we have come to having a category 5 over the Atlantic in the last 7 years (the last one is still 2007's Hurricane Felix).

Also...

image source: www.nauticahoa.com

9/19- The words nobody wants to hear

Good FRIDAY all- happy weekend!!

Today is going to be, in a word, really cold! Temps may not reach 60 in some of the colder areas of the state, but most of us should see high temperatures around 62-64 and sunshine for today, though there could be some fluffy cumulus clouds around here. Tomorrow looks mostly cloudy with a slim chance of some AM drizzle. Sunday afternoon and Monday becomes very tricky. Either a Tropical Storm or a regular nor'easter is going to make a run at us, and how close it gets changes a great deal about the forecast. Right now, I think that it passes just outside the 40/70 benchmark and gives us some light rain on Sunday night as it teams up with a cold front, but a slight jog to the west could change things significantly. If this was a few months later, by comparison, it would be one of those 2-5" deals that we get quite often in winter here. Beyond that, the weather looks boring, which is good for you!

In the Atlantic- Edouard has died out, but a new tropical storm is trying to form near the Cape Verdes, but I am inclined to doubt it will succeed. The feature off the southeast coast is far more interesting to me, not the least because of the impacts it will have here.

In the Pacific- Horrifyingly, Cabo has just gone under another Tropical Storm Watch, though, thankfully, the core of Tropical Storm Polo should miss them to the west.

Today in weather history- September 19, 1983- In just 7 hours, Denver goes from a sunny high of 86 degrees, to 36 degrees with heavy snow as a cold front moves through the region. Yikes! This kind of event, while highly unusual, does happen about once every two years for somebody, and goes to show just how powerful mother nature can be.

3 days to Autumn!

9/18- Not much more to be said

Good Thursday all-

Quite honestly, there is nothing more that needs to be said about today's weather- or tomorrow's. Patchy frost is likely tomorrow morning, so cover up those plants. Quite honestly, no change in the forecast has occurred, so no boring post today!

In the Atlantic- Same status as yesterday. Edouard is still out there as an 85-mph hurricane, but poses no threat to land except maybe the Azores of the far Eastern Atlantic. A new tropical wave poses some risk of development, but probably not until next week.

In the Pacific- Polo has become a hurricane and is moving in the same general direction as we just saw Odile do, but it shouldn't be anywhere near as impactful. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Odile was retired from the Pacific name list for its' impacts on the Baja.


Today in weather history- September 18, 2003- Hurricane Isabel makes landfall on the outer banks as a category 2 after being a cat 5 in the central Atlantic. Damage was $3.3 billion dollars, and 18 people were killed in one of the worst hurricanes to ever hit the Carolinas.

9/17- All's good!

Good Thursday everyone-

Today is going to be fantastic- temps in the low 70s and mostly sunny skies! In fact, most of the next 7 days look pleasant, with the possible exception of Sunday as it borders on hot (We may reach the low 80s before a cold front moves through overnight with rain into Monday and shaves 8-10 degrees off the temps). Otherwise, the next 7 days look very similar too this...so I won't bore you with some long discussion.

In the Pacific- A fascinating development could occur today- Tropical storm Odile strengthened a tad as it moved into the Gulf of California. Now for the real fun- can it actually get to Arizona as a full-blown Tropical Storm? I think it might, and if it does it would be only the third time in recorded history that this has ever occurred. Enjoy this anomaly- it probably only happens two or three times in a lifetime. Otherwise, Tropical Storm Polo is about to become a hurricane and it may have some impacts on the Mexican coast, and Tropical Storm watches are up from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes.

In the Atlantic- After becoming the first major hurricane in the Atlantic in two years yesterday for a few hours, Edouard has entered the ice cold waters of the North Atlantic as a category 1, and it won't be with us for much longer at all. A new tropical wave will try to develop this weekend, but it isn't especially likely.

Today in weather history- September 17, 1988- The head coach of the Alabama Football team declines to fly his team to Texas for their game against Texas A&M due to Hurricane Gilbert, so viewers on ESPN are treated to viewing announcers in an empty stadium...

5 days to Autumn!

9/16- Some rain

Good Tuesday all!

Today is going to be the only day in the next 7 that features rain. I do expect scattered showers this morning and, although not a washout by any means, it is going to be noticeably wet this morning. By the afternoon, however, we will clear it out and temps will get to the low 70s for highs, so it will be rather pleasant after about 10 or so. The other big question of the week is Friday morning- but it's the "How low can you go?" game with temps- I think most of us will probably reach the 30s! In fact, it is a distinct possibility that someone frosts rather significantly (For some of the colder parts of the state, it may even freeze and end the growing season!). The weekend looks spectacular with temps in the high 60s and low 70s with sunshine. The next day with a chance of rain is Monday.


In the Atlantic- Category 2 Hurricane Edouard is still at 110 mph, and is moving out to sea. A tropical wave does have some potential for development by this weekend, however. The next name on the list is Fay (You may remember this one from 2008- it hit Florida 4 times and dumped a huge amount of rain. In fact, there was debate that it may be retired though it ultimately was not).

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Odile is in the Gulf of California and moving northeast. In a fascinating event, it is possible (albeit somewhat unlikely- maybe 30% or so), that it reaches Arizona as a Tropical Storm. I am unaware of this event ever happening before. To make matters worse, Tropical Storm Polo formed this morning off the coast of Mexico, and is headed in generally the same direction. I think it should miss Cabo to the west, however.

Today in weather history- September 16, 1928- The San Felipe Hurricane hits Florida with 150mph winds at category 4 intensity- and kills 2000 migrant workers when the easternmost dike on Lake Okeechobee breaks, causing a flood about the same size as the state of Delaware!

COUNTDOWN TO FALL: 6

9/15- Cold!

Good Monday everyone-

Today is going to be an excellent preview of the weather that we can effectively expect all week. The temperature is going to be in the low 70s with partly cloudy conditions, though there is a solid chance of rain later tonight, but it won't effect anyone's plans as it comes in the overnight hours and only will amount to between 0.1 and 0.25 inches of rain. The rest of the week looks darn near identical, just getting slightly colder each day. The one thing to caution here is Thursday night, and that is because the temperatures are going to be ice cold...in some cases literally. Overnight lows will be in the high 30s or low 40s on average but...it isn't impossible that someone freezes that night. That would be an incredibly bizarrely early freeze for us here, but it looks likely at least for parts of Litchfield county.

In the Atlantic- Hurricane Edouard rapidly intensified into a 105 mph hurricane overnight, and it is on the brink of becoming the first major hurricane in the Atlantic in nearly two years! Fortunately, unlike like the last one (2012's Hurricane Sandy), it poses no threat to land.

In the Pacific- A major disaster is unfolding as Hurricane Odile has actually made a direct hit on Cabo San Lucas as a strong category 3/borderline category 4 with winds of 127 mph. This is the strongest hurricane to hit the Baja peninsula since...ever! YIKES! My thoughts go out to those effected this morning, but we are likely to hear about this one for a long time. Development with a system off the Mexican coast later this week is also considered likely.

Today in weather history- September 15, 1989- Hurricane Hugo intensified into a category 4 in the Caribbean on this date, but the biggest impacts were still a few days away when it hit South Carolina as a cat 3.

9/12- Happy fall, essentially

Good FRIDAY all- welcome to the weekend!

Today the weather is going to celebrate along with the rest of us, as it is going to be absolutely fantastic! Temperatures will climb into only the low to mid 70s, and with nothing but sunny skies today. Sadly, good things can't last, and tomorrow doesn't look great as rain is likely tomorrow afternoon. Sunday does look fantastic (perhaps the best day of the next 7, tied with Weds & Thurs), with temps in the high 60s/low 70s and bright sunshine. The only other chance of rain in the next seven days appears to be Tuesday with scattered AM showers.

If you don't like our weather, at least we aren't in parts of the northern plains, such as North Dakota, parts of which may receive one foot of snow in the next few days.

In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Edouard formed yesterday afternoon, and is located in the far eastern Atlantic, and poses no threat to land except for some high surf to Bermuda. Otherwise, we may have a more interesting storm to track next week, as it appears Tropical Storm Fay may form in the Gulf early next week. We shall see!

In the Pacific- TD #16E is not likely to become a tropical storm because it is so close to what is about to become Hurricane Odile, and in fact will probably get absorbed into the system before it can become Polo. There is, however, a risk of development of the Mexican coast early next week, but it's far too early for details...

Today in weather history- September 12, 1960- Hurricane Donna scores a direct hit on Connecticut. The damage, however, is surprisingly light, as the storm is fast moving and does not coincide with high tide (which Hurricane Sandy did), but still becomes the first hurricane to effect the east coast from Key West to Caribou, ME.

9/11

Good Thursday all-

First and foremost, I will be forgoing my 'weather history' fact today in honor of those lost on 9/11. There is no event in history of greater importance in our nation, and I want you all to remember that instead of some random weather event from so many years ago. That said...

Today is going to be a rather unpleasant day indeed. Highs are going to be near 80 with high humidity. To make matters worse, finish your outdoor plans early, as it is going to pour this afternoon with strong thunderstorms likely as we continue to move forward into fall with a cold front. In fact, we shan't reach 80 again...for a really long time, if we do again this year! We won't even be close over the next week and, on some days, temps will even struggle to reach 70! The best chances for rain come Saturday night, Monday, and Tuesday.

In the Atlantic- Two key areas to watch- one is located east of Florida, and another is a tropical wave near the Cape Verdes. The one near the Cape Verdes will almost certainly develop, but really it isn't going anywhere to concern ourselves with as it poses no threat to land whatsoever for now. Meanwhile, the one nearer to home is going to move west across Florida and enter the Gulf, where there is a 30% chance of it developing.

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Odile is located 240 miles S of Manzanillo, Mexico, and rapid intensification is forecast to bring Odile to near major hurricane status in a few days. To make matters worse, it is like that Tropical Storm Polo and Tropical Storm Rachel are also going to form quite soon in the next few days. Additionally, next week off the coast of Mexico, more development is possible, but by then it may be Tropical Storm Simon! Importantly, if Polo forms today, we would be on pace to tie or break the record for the all-time most active hurricane season here, established in 1992. Unlike the Atlantic, the Pacific list actually does have names for U, X, Y, and Z, they just alternate every two years instead of the usual six. If the name list is exhausted, we would go to the greek letters (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda, Mu, Nu, Xi, Omicron, Pi, Rho, Sigma, Tau, Upsilon, Phi, Chi, Psi, and Omega). This did happen in the Atlantic once (in 2005, when there was a Tropical Storm Zeta).

9/10- Still going strong...

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to start off cloudy, but clearing should occur and lead to an (at most) partly cloudy afternoon as the nor'easter pulls away from the northeast. Tomorrow, however, looks absolutely terrible with cloudy skies and ridiculously hot weather compared to what we have been experiencing...80! Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also very likely tomorrow afternoon, some of which may in fact be severe. Beyond that, however, it wouldn't shock me if we were done with 80 degree days as fall really takes hold by the weekend with lows in the 40s and highs struggling to reach 70 on most days. Quite honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see some towns in Litchfield county drop into the 30s. Fall is here, so enjoy the reprive from the heat before the snow season starts in a month or so.

Interestingly, today is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but there are no active tropical cyclones in the basin.

In the Atlantic- Development is quite likely with a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands, but it is probably going out to sea at this point. The bigger concern for the US lies in the Bahamas with a low crossing into the Gulf, but conditions aren't particularly favorable, though slow development is possible. The next two names are Edouard and Fay (you may remember 2008's Tropical Storm Fay, which had an erratic track across Florida, making landfall four times!)

In the Pacific- Tropical Depression 15-E is about to become Tropical Storm (and eventually Hurricane) Odile, and it poses a huge threat to the Baja peninsula, and the southwestern US in terms of rain- there has already been big flooding there from the remnants of Hurricane Norbert!

Today in weather history- September 10, 2008- Hurricane Ike emerges into the Gulf as a category 2 storm with 100mph winds and begins to move towards Galveston. While further strengthening was forecast, this never happened, but the storm was plenty bad enough as it was. The name was retired and replaced on this year's name list by Isaiah. Will we get there this year? Anybody's guess!

9/9- Nice again!

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be a highly pleasant day indeed- partly cloudy skies and mid-70s with low humidity sound like a deal to me! The only tradeoff is some scattered showers late tonight but especially early tomorrow morning. Not everyone is going to get these showers, but the threat is enough that I should mention it- a nor'easter (which is rather unusual for this time of year), misses us to the east, but moisture will be enough to send us some rain. The other good chance for rain this week is Thursday night with a cold front approaching, but, as it is likely to come in the overnight, it shouldn't be too much of an issue for our daily plans.

In the Atlantic & Pacific- Status quo from yesterday- please refer to yesterday's post for more info ;)

Today in weather history- September 9, 1821- The deadliest tornado in New Hampshire history kills six people and causes a 23-mile long path through Sullivan and Merrimack Counties.

Also, this is the latest date in the year where it has never snowed in Cheyanne, Wyoming.

9/8- Very nice at last!

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be very nice indeed as low humidity reigns, as does low temperatures. Today is likely to feature nothing but sunshine and around 75-80 degree temperatures. In fact, I find it highly likely that this will continue for most of the week. I can't rule out a scattered shower tomorrow as an off-season nor'easter passes by to our southeast. By Thursday, scattered storms become very possible. By Saturday, however, get those fall jackets ready! In fact, we may even fail to reach 70! It is the first few days of that crisp fall air that we all know and love, so be ready for it!

In the Atlantic- A tropical wave near the Cape Verde's is probably about to become Tropical Storm Edouard in the next 5 days, but the odds currently favor an out to sea track

In the Pacific- Norbert finally dissipated this morning, but a new disturbance is probably about to become Tropical Storm Odile (an odd name indeed)

Today in weather history- September 8, 1900- The unarguable worst weather disaster in American history occurs as a category 3 hurricane hits Galveston, Texas. The storm surge of over twenty feet trashes the entire city of over 100,000, and kills 7 to 10 thousand people. It really led into the storm surge aware era that we are in today.

9/5- Great today!

Good Friday everyone!

Today is going to be rather horrible as it will be sunny but very hot as temps soar to very near or exceeding 90 degrees today...yikes! Certainly not what we expect in September. To make matters worse, tomorrow we not only get to the same temperature, but a cold front comes in the late afternoon, which means it's severe weather time! In fact, there could be large hail, damaging winds, and I can't even rule out a tornado or two as the atmosphere will be very volatile. Rain and flooding will also be a concern, as the humidity should allow for torrential downpours in most of the storms. On the positive note, we are going to drop the temps to below 80 for the foreseeable future because of this cold front. We then appear dry until Wednesday, but then we are washed out for a day or so at the end of next week.

In the Atlantic- There is no change with the tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands, and there is still a 40% chance of development.

In the Pacific- Hurricane Norbert has 90mph wind and, because it is located just 100 miles WSW of Cabo San Lucas, has prompted hurricane warnings from Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro. It is going to generally weaken as it moves north and eventually east, and probably will hit California. We don't hear that every day, do we?

Today in weather history- September 5, 1950- Hurricane Easy loops two times off the west coast of Florida, dumping a copious amount of rain on Florida. In fact, 39 inches of rain fell on Yankeetown, FL, setting the state record and the #2 all time 24-hour rainfall in North America. As to the name, hurricanes began getting named in this year, but were named using the military phonetic alphabet, which at the time was Able, Baker, Charlie, Dog, Easy, etc..

9/4- Finally, no humidity

Hello everyone- happy Thursday!

Today is going to be a highly pleasant day with highs in the 80s but with exceedingly low humidity, so it will likely feel very nice for much of the day today. Sadly, the temps will increase tomorrow as a southerly breeze develops, and it will therefore be exceedingly hot, humid, and horrible tomorrow. By Saturday, a strong cold front is going to cause some very nasty thunderstorms on Saturday, some of which could be very strong to severe with large hail. For next week, we finally get our typical fallish early September weather with lows in the 50s and highs in the mid-70s. An offseason nor'easter threatens on Wednesday, and it (for now) does not appear to have too many impacts, but it isn't nearly certain, so that is something worth watching as we move forward.

In the Atlantic- A strong tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands is probably going to develop over the next several days as it moves towards the Lesser Antillies. For now there is only a 40% chance of development, but I expect that to increase. The next name on the list is Edouard.

In the Pacific- Hurricane Norbert, located 165 miles south of the Baja Peninsula, has 80 mph sustained winds and is moving northwest. After a few days, it will gradually weaken...and then do something extremely rare and hit south California as an extratropical cyclone. This probably only happens once every forty years or so, and it is something very fun to watch!

Today in weather history- September 4, 2007- Hurricane Felix makes landfall in Nicaragua as a category 5 hurricane, marking the first time that two category 5 hurricanes made landfall at that intensity in the same season (the other one that year was Hurricane Dean). Intriguingly, today therefore marks 7 years to the day since the last category 5 hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic. The closest we've come was 2010's Hurricane Igor, which had 155mph wind, but it needs to be >156 to be a cat 5.

9/2- Hot hot hot :(

Good Tuesday all- welcome back to the work and school week!

Today is going to be really, really hot sadly as temps are going to soar into the mid 80s once again with exceedingly high humidity. Tough luck here, particularly since this kind of weather is rather rare for early September (but far from unheard of). By next week, however, the exact opposite will occur- in fact, I would not be shocked at all if next Monday we didn't get out of the 60s. That is frequently the way weather in this month works though- a week of summer followed by a week of fall. This is technically, however, the first month of "meteorological fall", which consists of September, October, and November.

In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Dolly formed this morning as forecast in the Bay of Campeche- it is expected to strengthen somewhat (but not make hurricane strength) before making a final landfall in Mexico. Also, a tropical wave this weekend could develop near the Cape Verde Islands, but that is so far out that it is not worth worrying about at this time. Now that we've used Dolly, the next name on the list is Edouard

In the Pacific- A low 300 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico is about to become Tropical Storm Norbert as it parallels the coast of Mexico and the Baja Peninsula. There will likely be impacts of rain and wind on this one along the western Mexico coastline.

Today in weather history- September 2, 1935- In one of the biggest disasters in hurricane history, an extreme rarity occurs as a category 5 hurricane makes landfall at peak intensity in the Florida Keys, which experience 160 mph sustained winds with winds gusting over 200! More than 400 people are killed (the exact number is unknown). This is one of only three category 5 hurricanes to ever hit the US as a category 5. I think I'll leave you hanging on what the other two are until tomorrow. I'll give you a hint though- it's not Katrina.

9/1- Happy Labor Day!

Happy Labor Day everyone- and Happy September!

Today is going to actually be nicer than I thought it was going to be yesterday- the odds of thunderstorms are much lower. The atmosphere appears to have stabilized a bit after we got positively hammered yesterday- I am rather certain most areas picked up an inch or more of rain. Although it is unlikely, though, some of the area is likely to get doused by a storm or two this afternoon. Beyond that, though, it is going to be totally miserable with highs and the upper 80s and ridiculously humid to begin September.

In the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Dolly is likely about to form in the Southwest Gulf in an area called the Bay of Campeche, which separates the Yucatan Peninsula from mainland Mexico. It is notorious for supporting rapid intensification and formation of tropical cyclones, so this is one to watch as it heads off towards Mexico.

In the Pacific- A tropical storm is likely to form next week that will parallel the Mexican coast and move towards the Baja California Peninsula. The next name on the Pacific name list is Norbert (yes, like the dragon from Harry Potter).

Today in weather history- September 1, 1923- A major typhoon hits Japan...and then a powerful earthquake follows it on the exact same night, and the wind fanned the flames started by the earthquake leading to an enormous catastrophe that killed 143,000 people.