2/27- Nice weekend, complex setup next week

HAPPY FRIDAY- WE MADE IT!

First off, it's time for the "Why did I get the forecast wrong yesterday?" analysis. Essentially, what happened is that a weak secondary low formed around Trenton, and allowed a band of very heavy snow to set up shop yesterday morning on a line from about Danbury, along I-84 to Hamden and Wallingford. Some people in that area experienced near whiteout conditions for about 2 hours, and may have received as much as 2-3" of snow. I had about 2" in Wallingford. I almost got stranded on 84 it was so bad...what can you do. Hopefully next week I'll be more accurate, but I've got my work cut out for me. There's 3 things that I'm watching very closely.

#1- Monday morning- A moderate snowfall is all but certain in this time period as models have been in agreement for several days on this. A preliminary estimate of 3-6" seems reasonable, but that is almost certainly not going to be my final forecast. It wouldn't shock me at all if it ended up being 2-4" or 4-8" or anything in between. Regardless, expect an impactful snow event on Monday morning, along with school closings (yes, ANOTHER Monday!)

#2- Wednesday- This is when it really gets interesting. A large storm is currently modeled to track through Lake Michigan...which would mean a burst of 2-5 or 3-6" of snow...before it changes to 1-2" of rain. That would be a disaster for everyone with all the snow we have on our roofs at the moment. The thing to watch, however, is whether it can go far enough east to redevelop off the coast. If it succeeeds, then more frozen precip would be possible, but that's about a 25% chance at the moment.

#3- Thursday- Immediately following that, some models are indicating the development of a coastal low that could produce another round of mixed precipitation. This is probably going to be the least impactful of the three, but still, keep it in the back of your mind today.

I'll have more on all 3 threats tomorrow.

2/25- Cold still, some snow coming?

Good Wednesday all-

It's still cold, but not nearly as cold as it was yesterday. At least today we're in the positive single digits instead of the negative, and we dodged a coastal storm to our east today (though the cape will probably get 2-5" of snow today), and shall do so again on Friday. Granted, the primary reason for this is that it's going to be really cold, which means that we now will almost undoubtedly break the record for the all-time coldest month, which is remarkable considering that record keeping began in 1905! In any case, the next storm appears to be a moderate snowfall Sunday night and Monday morning, and something on the lines of 3-6" or 4-8" seems reasonable. Tuesday, another storm moves through, and it's a huge one, but the models currently have it as an inside runner bringing primarily rain. They're trending further east at the moment, though, and so I don't buy a rainstorm yet. Let's just see what happens. It'll be just fine today- sunny and low 30s- so enjoy it!

Today in weather history- February 25, 1914- Society Hill, SC, somehow gets dumped by a whopping 18" of snow, which is the all-time record for snowfall in a single storm in South Carolina.

2/24- Cold now, snow soon?

Good Tuesday all-

Well, it's absolutely frigid out there, generally between 0 and -15 this morning, but it's going to get slightly better as temps moderate to well, probably just the teens today, but the 20s are likely tomorrow. Just so you know, though, we should be around 40 this time of year, so this is still completely ridiculous! To make matters worse, an accumulating snow, perhaps a significant one, is likely now on either Sunday or Monday, so that bears watching, but we are way too far out for any details on that possibility, other than that models are in agreement that there will be at least some snow in that timeframe. Otherwise, it'll be 20s for highs, single digits for lows, and generally frigid weather, though light snow is possible tonight, and someone east of our region (New London/Windham county) could pick up an inch or two of snow.

Today in weather history- February 24, 2015- BDL breaks their record low for today with a temperature of -6, beating out -4 as the record. Not overly impressive, until you consider that the record was set in 1907, 108 years ago! Yikes!

2/21- More snow? Really?

Good Saturday all-

Everyone in Connecticut is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for 2-5" of snow. This is likely too low of a forecast from NOAA. I'm looking at the newest computer model runs, and I have to say I really don't get how people are saying it's going to be a mix at the end because, to be honest, I think that any mixing will be extremely late, and most of (if not all of) the precip will have already fallen. As a result, I'll go with a slightly more aggressive 3-7" of snow...with the least in New London county...and the most pretty much everywhere else. If it stays all snow for the duration, most of Connecticut should pick up around 5" from this. Expect snow to start falling around 3 this afternoon, and it will come down heavy at times and really make for dangerous travel late this afternoon. I'd recommend you cancel your evening plans tonight as you'll likely get snowed in. Regardless of that, it looks like we may actually get a full week in for a change without a huge snowstorm (though there's going to be another pesky 2-4" event on Tuesday probably). Remarkably, since this hasn't been named, this is now the longest we've gone without a named storm since January 23- one week!

Enjoy the snow today and tonight...let's see how much we get!

2/19- STORM WATCH- Did you really think it would rain?

Good Thursday all-

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY has been issued from midnight tonight until noon tomorrow for everyone in Connecticut. It certainly is warranted, as record-breaking cold is likely both tonight and tomorrow night, when temps could approach or exceed -10 in parts of Connecticut, especially north. The storm for the weekend just got a lot more interesting overnight tonight with the model runs. The models are showing a storm system that is much weaker than before...which ordinarily would be good, however...it allows the cold air near the surface to win out...and would lead to a primarily snow result, perhaps mixed with some sleet/freezing rain, but not plain rain. If this were to play out, we're looking at perhaps a 7-14" snowfall if everything played out right, but I'm not going to forecast that yet- rather, that's the worst case scenario (or best case- depending on how you feel)- that is realistic...which it certainly is...though I'd say a 4-8" snowfall mixed with sleet is probably the most likely option at this time.

The early part of next week looks dry, but another major snowstorm is possible next Wednesday.

The next name on WFSB's name list is Gavin. It's very possible Sunday's storm is going to get this name.

The model runs this afternoon are huge, since the storm is only about 50 hours away. Let's see what they do.

Today in weather history- February 19, 1979- In the early stages of computer models, surprises happen. That's exactly what happened here, as a forecast for sunny skies turned into a monster nor'easter that dumped 2 feet of snow in Delaware and massive amounts through the mid-Atlantic and northeast. This has happened a few times in recent years too (I can remember a day in 2010 when we were expecting 2-3" and got 13"), but is increasingly rare as technology advances.

2/18- Another weekend storm

Good Wednesday all-

Well, at least today looks fine, if not extremely cold. Highs today should be in the high teens/low 20s range, with increasing clouds through the day. Unfortunately, those clouds introduce a light but accumulating snow overnight tonight and perfectly during the morning commute tomorrow. Some of the unluckier areas could get as much as 2", so it could cause a few schools to delay tomorrow. There is a small chance that some would close, but I doubt it, quite honestly, because it should be easy to remove. If you have plans on Sunday, though, they're in big trouble as a major storm moves through...but again it's a tough forecast in many ways. Unfortunately, at the moment, it looks like mostly rain, not freezing rain, but actually regular rain. Let's hope not, because an inch of rain on the deep snowpack we currently have could be an absolute disaster for roofs! After that, the early part of next week looks good, the mid part...not so much as another nor'easter takes aim.

Today in weather history- February 18, 1959- A snowstorm that lasted 5 days continues in Mt. Shasta, CA (the snowiest place in North America). That in itself is not too rare but this is- the storm total ends up at one hundred eighty-nine inches of snow, or fifteen feet, 9 inches. This ends up as the single biggest snowfall in the history of North America.

2/15- Blizzard misses east...some snow midweek

Good Sunday all-

A WIND CHILL WARNING has been issued for everyone except the immediate shoreline for the first time in recent memory, a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the southern counties and Litchfield County, and a WINTER STORM WARNING remains for Hartford, Tolland, and Windham counties. The big stories today is that the Norlun trough missed us to the south- I was concerned about that last night at about 10- leaving many of us with less snow than predicted. My apologies, but this storm was probably the single hardest storm to forecast in the last five years. I went to bed last night unsure if I'd wake up to nothing or 8". In any event, what's done is done, and what happens tonight is now far more concerning than what's left of Blizzard Faith. The temperature will drop to about -8, which itself is bad, but the wind will be positively howling out of the north at 10-20mph. That means that the wind chill will approach -30 tomorrow morning. That's insanely hard to do here in Connecticut, but it's happening, so be prepared. In fact, it's so extreme that I think schools would close if it wasn't a federal holiday anyway. The storm threat midweek appears to  have been delayed 24hrs and now appears to be primarily Wednesday night and Thursday, so therefore we're too far out for any accumulation prediction, but it looks minor at the current time. Next Sunday does not look minor, however...that's worth watching.

Enjoy your day!

2/14- A true rarity

Good Saturday all-

Well, this might take a while to get through this morning- a WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for Hartford, Tolland, and Windham counties, a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for Fairfield county, a WIND CHILL WARNING has been issued for Litchfield, but most importantly a BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NEW HAVEN, MIDDLESEX, AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES.

This is the first time in my memory that we have received two blizzards in the same season, and is almost undoubtedly the shortest return period for a blizzard in Connecticut history (A little over two weeks). Accumulations will not be particularly harsh (not that 4-8" isn't significant) but the wind howling is going to be blowing the snow around so much this is certainly warranted. The second blizzard of 2015 is here, so enjoy it please, and keep an eye on Tuesday as the models have most definately returned the threat of a huge snowstorm (1ft+). Unsurprisingly, another nor'easter threat exists next weekend. The next name on WFSB's name list is Gavin, and I consider it highly likely Tuesday's storm will be that.

Have "Faith"? We do!

Good evening-

Well, we've done it. After a quiet start to the winter, and after so many people had given up...a month ago, who would have thought they'd be reading this.

Winter Storm Faith is the 6th named storm of the winter...and passes 2010-11 and 2013-14...and this winter has now seen the most named storms in twenty years. The record number of named storms in a winter is a two way tie between April 1, 1983's Blizzard Odile and April 7, 1996's Winter Storm Olivia...so there's still quite a way to go before we get the true all time record. With the pattern we have though, it appears possible that Gavin is a mere five days away as well. If we call March 31st the end of the snowy season...we are 9 short of tying an all time record...and there are 45 days until April 1st (from Sunday) so we would need to average a named snowstorm every five days between now and then. With the pattern we've been stuck in...it may not be impossible...but it's certainly highly unlikely. For the first time, though, I can appreciate how 1995-96 was possible...it was likely achieved by being in this (or a smilar) pattern the entire winter, including December and early January.

Snow lovers have certainly been rewarded this year for their long wait. Remember to always keep the "Faith" that winter will make an appearance. What a remarkable turnaround in pattern, one that will be talked about for years to come. .

2/13- A deeper dig yields a snowstorm for us...then watching brutal cold

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!! LONG WEEKEND!!

Well, let's start with the most important weather alert- a WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for everyone Middlesex county and east...a WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect until noon today...and a HIGH WIND WATCH for New Haven and Fairfield counties has been issued for Sunday. Based on the accumulation forecast, however, I expect that New Haven County and Hartford County will eventually get into the Winter Storm Watch...as NOAA currently expects 5-9" on their local forecast. (WSW criteria is 6) Additionally, it's not impossible that these get upgraded to Blizzard Warnings, though I am unsure that we meet the whiteout conditions necessary for this- the wind will certainly meet the criteria. As for accumulations...I'll go with 3-6" for Fairfield and Litchfield counties...5-10" for New Haven, Hartford, and western portions of Tolland and Middlesex counties...and 8-15" for everyone else. There's also a chance of a significant snowstorm in the middle of next week (around Tuesday night)...though it looks like we may have dodged that one for the time being.

In any event, strap in and enjoy this snowstorm!

2/12- Light snow today, big trouble Sat and next week

Good Thursday all-

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY is in effect for the northern half of New Haven and Fairfield counties and all of northern Connecticut, but really this impacts everyone, since the difference from one town to another is not that great, so let's just say it's really cold. Regardless, light snow should break out this afternoon around 2...and, although it won't be heavy at all...it'll be a pain to drive in and it could drop two inches by 8 tonight or so. The big problem though lies this weekend, as a HUGE coastal storm develops and likely drops Boston with another blizzard and 1-2ft of snow. Fortunately, it doesn't look like it'll be that bad in Connecticut, but it could certainly still be a 10-14" snowfall if everything comes together correctly...so it's worth watching.

I'm also concerned about a storm near the middle of next week. The fact that we'll get a storm is all but certain...though the precip is not. I was really disturbed by the Euro, which pretty much dropped several inches of ICE. That would be an absolute disaster...and we have to hope this does not happen, or most everyone would lose power. This is an absolute worst case scenario...but it's a severe one, so worth a mention.

Today in weather history- February 12, 2010- For the first (and thus far only) time on record...all 50 states have snow on the ground, with the white stuff covering 67% of the US. Even Florida had snow (1" in De Funiak Springs), and the summit of Mauna Kea, Hawaii has a trace.

SEVERE STORM WATCH FOR SAT PM/SUN

Good evening everyone-

Well, the models just made this weekend storm significantly more interesting for us here in Connecticut. The good news is we dodged the Norlun trough. The bad news...is that we didn't dodge the actual nor'easter and now some models are indicating a MONSTER snowstorm for New England on Sunday. The Euro, for example, is an all out blizzard for our region with 1-2ft of snow and winds gusting to 50-60mph. The GFS is much less significant, but still features a 3-6" snowfall or so. Obviously, this is worth watching...Let's see what happens. Yes, the 'b' word is possible once again.

2/11- Nor'easter misses, but major snowstorm possible Saturday. WHAT?

Good Wednesday all-

Well, the pattern developing is just plain odd, but Saturday's storm just got significantly more interesting. The storm itself misses east, which ordinarily means minimal impact. There's a problem though.

There's something in weather that probably only happens once every two years or so here called a Norlun Trough. What is it? It's a back-end line of snow that develops on the tailing end of a storm...and where it sets up can leave significant accumulation. The problem? Models appear to have decided that it will set up directly over or very near Connecticut. IF it sets up correctly, a major snowstorm would occur with as much as 20 inches in places. Oddly, that may be more than we would get if we actually got hit by the nor'easter as it would be a sustained, slow moving, heavy snow. There is absolutely no threat for mixing as well. Is it worth watching? Yes. At the moment. Expect to be snowed in this weekend. If trends continue, Winter Storm Watches are going up tomorrow. Keep in mind though that the trough can be anywhere from about NYC to Boston, and about 100 miles on either side of that gets dumped with a really tight gradient otherwise, so it's a very complex forecast...but it appears we're right in the bullseye this time. The next name on channel 3's name list (I think) is Fred (I could be wrong).

Tomorrow's storm is likely to drop 1-3", but directly on the evening commute. There is a small chance of early dismissals, but I think it's late enough that this won't be necessary.

Today in weather history- February 11, 1987- For just the third time on record during the month of February, a thunderstorm hits Denver. This is odd, considering how cold Denver usually is this time of year!

2/10- Close call Thursday, big weekend trouble

Good Tuesday all-

Well, today is going to be a very uninteresting weather day in terms of things falling from the sky, but it'll be more entertaining in the model world as the Euro and GFS duke out the Thursday storm. The 6z GFS appeared to be caving to the Euro, which would mean we dodge the worst of it, but it's still worth keeping an eye on just in case. The problem, though, is that arctic cold follows that, with temps below 0 and highs in the single digits if it comes together as we think it is. Finally, to add insult to injury, the models are also coming into agreement that Saturday afternoon we could be looking at a monster snowstorm...and the potential on that one is huge. Let's see what plays out. I'll update later tonight after the 18z GFS (around 6 or 6:30)

Today in weather history- February 10, 1983- A major nor'easter buries the East coast from Virginia to Connecticut, dropping 38" in parts of Virginia, 22" in New York, and 19" at BDL, putting it in the top 10 snowstorms on record for both locations. Let's see if we top that this weekend- not impossible.

2/9- Goodbye Ellie, hello more snow and bitter cold!

Good Monday all-

A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect for Hartford/Tolland/Windham/Litchfield, everyone else is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. Well, today we deal with the last stage (and unfortunately most significant) of Winter Storm Ellie- up to 6 inches of snow may fall during the day today, particularly in areas that do not mix. Those that do though, will be getting all ice, since the temps will not reach even the mid-20s! Yikes. To make matters worse, a clipper will bomb near the coast on Thursday. There's still some question with this, but a 4-8" snowfall seems like a reasonable place to start (though it could be much more or much less). Following that, the temperature drops like a rock, and we may not leave the single digits by Saturday, and lows could be negative double-digits if everything comes together. Naturally, there's a risk of a major snowstorm next Sunday and Monday as well. This pattern is here to stay, and most meteorologists seem to believe that we're stuck like this until at least the second week of March...ouch!

Today is the anniversary of the founding of the National Weather Bureau, which would later become the National Weather Service, and it is 145 years old as of today, providing accurate information and forecasts, as well as the body that issues Winter Storm Watches and Warnings, and other weather alerts.

2/7- Once again, a WSW

Good Saturday all-

Well, amazingly, for the third weekend in a row, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for everyone except the immediate shoreline, with NOAA generally forecasting 5 to 8 inches of snow. This may be a bit low...but it is not unreasonable. The majority of the snow, by far, will fall on Monday. Today and tomorrow should feature some snow, but it won't screw your plans up too much (if at all). Monday, however, will be a total loss, as either 6-10" of snow...or 0.2-0.4" of ice...will fall, depending entirely on your location (more ice the further south you go). For now, I think the primary rain/snow line will lie just north of New Haven, over about North Branford or so. Places north of that will see snow...and areas south of that will see ice. There certainly is, however, a chance that the line moves as far north as 84...and, if it does, totals are sliced in half but with more ice. It doesn't really matter, though, since ice is probably worse than snow, so it's very safe to say that, for the 3rd Monday in a row, I expect all schools to be closed completely. Delay are even possible on Tuesday. Amazing. To make matters worse, another nor'easter could be in the vicinity, yes, next Sunday into Monday. Unreal! For now, though, let's focus on Winter Storm Ellie/Marcus.

Today is also the 9th anniversary of Blizzard Carson (the blizzard of '06)- the 2nd largest snowstorm on record at BDL (January 11-13, 2011's Winter Storm Benedict is #1)- dropped 2 feet of snow on most of Connecticut with extremely strong wind.

Named!

Hey everyone-

Channel 3 has named Monday's storm Winter Storm Ellie...the fifth named storm of the winter...tying this year with 2010-11 and 2013-14 for the most named storms in the modern era (since 2000). The first forecast issued by them...6-12" statewide, with locally higher in the hills...seems highly reasonable.

Monday/Tues storm

Hey everyone-

Sorry that I haven't posted lately but I have been very busy indeed the last few days. Anyway, let's get to discussing a possible storm for Monday and Tuesday.

The models are really all over the place- the agreement from earlier is gone. Now it's the NAM and CMC vs the GFS and Euro. The previous 2 show only light snow...while the second pairing show a significant (8+") snowfall for Connecticut from Monday PM to Tuesday AM. What can I do with that? Make note...but not much else since either is possible. Otherwise, snow next Thursday is likely with a clipper, but that shouldn't be too big of a deal. It's really all about Monday...let's see what happens.

2/4- STORM WATCH- Incredible week developing

Good Wednesday night everyone-

First off, sorry that I didn't update this morning- I had other things to worry about. In other news, I have been accepted to WestConn for the fall term to major in meteorology, and I'm ecstatic!! Now, on to what you really came here for, the weather.

Sadly, those of you looking for me to tell you the snow is over will have to look elsewhere. In fact, I think next week will be even snowier than this week...and maybe even much snowier.

Here's the thing- one to three inches of snow are going to fall tomorrow, with most people getting about 1 inch. The problem- it's coming directly in the morning commute. Thus, I expect most schools to be delayed. The more cautious districts, however, may decide to close, but I doubt it because they'll see what you're about to see for next week.

Friday is fine. Saturday, light snow develops and perhaps eventually bursts down 1-3" in places. The snow should end by evening. Sunday looks to be the same, with yet another 1-3" likely. No big deal right? Wrong. The real trouble starts around 9 or so Sunday night. The next part of the forecast is highly speculative. Lots can change. But it's important to be prepared.

Sunday night into Monday looks like a done deal for a significant snowstorm in Connecticut. An arctic front is going to stall just south of Connecticut, with some lows moving around it. Therefore, although it won't be particularly hard, expect it to snow all day Monday, thus dropping 7-14" statewide (pretty similar to last Monday). Thus, most schools will be closed. Think it's over? Not yet.

After that, a low will develop along the tail end of the front and likely develop into a major nor'easter. The path of this is uncertain, but if everything comes together (which the GFS is very close to showing), another 14-20"-type snowfall is possible. Thus, I can't rule out seeing nearly fifty inches of snow in the next eight days. The pattern we are stuck in is truly unbelievable- I've never seen anything like it before.

In summary

Tomorrow - 1-3"

Saturday- 1-3"

Sunday- 1-3"

Monday- 7-14"

Tues PM/Weds/Thurs(?)- Uncertain, but let's say 10-17" as a possibility. It is by no means certain this far out.

Taking the minimum snowfall, it's a 20" week- remarkable. Take the upper end, and it's 50". Thus, expect around 3ft this week, if everything works out.

Beyond that, there's no end in sight to the pattern...many more storms are likely in the next few weeks. After two months of nothing, it looks like a winter for the ages.

2/3- Choo choo! More snow coming

Good Tuesday all-

Well, after the monster nor'easter yesterday that dropped generally 8-12" on Connecticut, the weather today is going to be downright pleasant...because it's dry. It's going to be absolutely frigid, however, so stay warm! This should once again be the case tomorrow. It's Thursday I'm concerned about, however. A powerful cold front will move through the reason and, at the moment, could dump as much as 2-4" on Thursday! The big question here is the path of a low that develops off the coast. Most models boot it out to sea but one...the Euro...is a coast hugger and dumps eastern New England with significantly more than the 2-4" from the front alone...it's worth watching, but I'm inclined to doubt it...for now...because of the trend on the models. Today's runs are (needless to say) critical, especially at 12z (noon). One thing there's little doubt of right now, however? A major nor'easter appears to be on the way for Sunday night, and that one could be very big. It's early, but I suspect that one will find it's way into Southern New England.

Today in weather history- February 3, 1917- Miami was shocked to wake up and discover the mercury reading of 17 degrees, comfortably their all-time record low temperature for the day.

2/2- Ice or snow?

Good Monday all-

A WINTER STORM WARNING expires at 6 at the shore and 1 AM inland...Winter Storm Darius made his presence felt quite strongly across the region this morning, dropping 6" at my house in Wallingford, and 7" in Danbury. The snow turned to ice at my house in Wallingford around 7 this morning, and it's been sleeting very hard since then. An additional inch or two of accumulation is possible as the storm pulls the cold air back through the upper atmosphere this afternoon. Tomorrow, fortunately, looks good, as does Wednesday, but accumulating snow appears very likely for Thursday. How much is up in the air for sure, but a 3-6" baseline for starters seems to be reasonable. It depends on how a clipper and coastal low interact...as well as how far west the low can track. The models currently do not agree, so I can't tell you more! More snow is also possible around Saturday, in a very similar situation to Thursday.


Today's storm takes precedence over weather history- so keep it coming and enjoy the snow and ice!

Ice ice ice

Update as of Sunday night-

MORE ICE- LESS SNOW LIKELY. The shoreline's new forecast from me is 4-7" with 0.33-0.66" ice. That would be a monstrous ice storm...while inland is going to mix some...but not nearly to that extent...and I'll go with 6-12" for everyone north of about Wallingford. That area itself (the borderline zone) will likely get about 8-9" from this one...with 0.2-0.4" of ice. YIKES.

2/1- WINTER STORM WARNING

Good Sunday all-

All of CT is under a WINTER STORM WARNING this morning, lasting from 7 PM tonight until 6 PM tomorrow. The storm should wait just barely long enough for most Super Bowl parties to proceed as normal...but be safe when driving home please! A monster storm is heading straight for Connecticut on this first day of February. The models came in colder last night...and I am now expecting all snow for everyone except the extreme shoreline. Even North Haven stays 90% snow I think...so I'll go with generally 7-14" statewide...with higher amounts inland...and lower amounts on the beaches. Some beach areas will likely get less than the 7", so I'll go with 4-8" there. Lastly, I expect all schools to be closed tomorrow. Some schools may delay or even close again on Tuesday as the storm will be with us until late tomorrow evening. Consider tomorrow a snow day!