Wednesday, February 4, 2015

2/4- STORM WATCH- Incredible week developing

Good Wednesday night everyone-

First off, sorry that I didn't update this morning- I had other things to worry about. In other news, I have been accepted to WestConn for the fall term to major in meteorology, and I'm ecstatic!! Now, on to what you really came here for, the weather.

Sadly, those of you looking for me to tell you the snow is over will have to look elsewhere. In fact, I think next week will be even snowier than this week...and maybe even much snowier.

Here's the thing- one to three inches of snow are going to fall tomorrow, with most people getting about 1 inch. The problem- it's coming directly in the morning commute. Thus, I expect most schools to be delayed. The more cautious districts, however, may decide to close, but I doubt it because they'll see what you're about to see for next week.

Friday is fine. Saturday, light snow develops and perhaps eventually bursts down 1-3" in places. The snow should end by evening. Sunday looks to be the same, with yet another 1-3" likely. No big deal right? Wrong. The real trouble starts around 9 or so Sunday night. The next part of the forecast is highly speculative. Lots can change. But it's important to be prepared.

Sunday night into Monday looks like a done deal for a significant snowstorm in Connecticut. An arctic front is going to stall just south of Connecticut, with some lows moving around it. Therefore, although it won't be particularly hard, expect it to snow all day Monday, thus dropping 7-14" statewide (pretty similar to last Monday). Thus, most schools will be closed. Think it's over? Not yet.

After that, a low will develop along the tail end of the front and likely develop into a major nor'easter. The path of this is uncertain, but if everything comes together (which the GFS is very close to showing), another 14-20"-type snowfall is possible. Thus, I can't rule out seeing nearly fifty inches of snow in the next eight days. The pattern we are stuck in is truly unbelievable- I've never seen anything like it before.

In summary

Tomorrow - 1-3"

Saturday- 1-3"

Sunday- 1-3"

Monday- 7-14"

Tues PM/Weds/Thurs(?)- Uncertain, but let's say 10-17" as a possibility. It is by no means certain this far out.

Taking the minimum snowfall, it's a 20" week- remarkable. Take the upper end, and it's 50". Thus, expect around 3ft this week, if everything works out.

Beyond that, there's no end in sight to the pattern...many more storms are likely in the next few weeks. After two months of nothing, it looks like a winter for the ages.










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