Wednesday, February 11, 2015

2/11- Nor'easter misses, but major snowstorm possible Saturday. WHAT?

Good Wednesday all-

Well, the pattern developing is just plain odd, but Saturday's storm just got significantly more interesting. The storm itself misses east, which ordinarily means minimal impact. There's a problem though.

There's something in weather that probably only happens once every two years or so here called a Norlun Trough. What is it? It's a back-end line of snow that develops on the tailing end of a storm...and where it sets up can leave significant accumulation. The problem? Models appear to have decided that it will set up directly over or very near Connecticut. IF it sets up correctly, a major snowstorm would occur with as much as 20 inches in places. Oddly, that may be more than we would get if we actually got hit by the nor'easter as it would be a sustained, slow moving, heavy snow. There is absolutely no threat for mixing as well. Is it worth watching? Yes. At the moment. Expect to be snowed in this weekend. If trends continue, Winter Storm Watches are going up tomorrow. Keep in mind though that the trough can be anywhere from about NYC to Boston, and about 100 miles on either side of that gets dumped with a really tight gradient otherwise, so it's a very complex forecast...but it appears we're right in the bullseye this time. The next name on channel 3's name list (I think) is Fred (I could be wrong).

Tomorrow's storm is likely to drop 1-3", but directly on the evening commute. There is a small chance of early dismissals, but I think it's late enough that this won't be necessary.

Today in weather history- February 11, 1987- For just the third time on record during the month of February, a thunderstorm hits Denver. This is odd, considering how cold Denver usually is this time of year!

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