7/24- STORM WATCH- Trouble from the Southeast

Happy Friday-

First off, I am really sorry for the late update--but a- I forgot and b- I'm tracking something very important (potentially) to our weather for the end of next week or weekend. That would be somewhere in the 7/30-8/2 range...

First off, I expect some showers and storms today, but not too many as most should stay to the north. The forecast remains largely unchanged from yesterday. Here's where the fun starts--

In the Atlantic- The cold front that is moving through on Sunday is going to stall off the shoreline of the US and a low pressure area is likely to form along, and eventually seperate from, the parent front. Models are certainly hinting at this becoming Tropical Storm Danny, and the last few runs of the Euro are quite concerning for Connecticut. The 00z run literally put a category 2 right over our heads in 10 days, and the newer 12z run has it inside the 40/70 benchmark at hurricane intensity. Needless to say, that would have a significant impact on us anyway...and certainly could still become a direct hit just 8-10 days out from the storm. You'll hear some hype over this undoubtedly, but here's what I am going to say-

Odds of multiple inches of rain from a storm somewhere between 7/30 and 8/2- 85-90%

Odds of Tropical Storm Danny forming next week- 75%

Odds of Danny reaching hurricane intensity- 50%

Odds of Danny having some kind of impact on us- 30%

Odds of Danny being a redux of Irene and Sandy and causing hurricane conditions in CT- 10-15%

Obviously, those are quite high...but still hardly certain. The GFS, for one, doesn't even develop the storm (well, it does but over land, which is just a plain rainstorm).

When you hear the media mention it, the hype will be massive. I promise that I will continue to update these percentages as time goes on, but it's certainly worth watching- this is the most significant hurricane threat since Arthur last year.

Remember that under a storm watch I will update here even this weekend- so check back in daily as this situation unfolds. Naturally, I'll update if anything significant happens as needed.