Weekend Special- HAPPY HALLOWEEN

Happy Howl-O-Ween everyone

I just wanted to update this because, naturally, everyone cares about what our forecast will be this evening as we go trick-or-treating with the kids. The answer? Rather brisk (high 40s-low 50s), but nothing too terrible, and partly cloudy skies. All in all, that's really not too bad for the last day of October, so I hope everyone gets out there and has a memorable and special Halloween.






This means that Thanksgiving is 3 weeks from Thursday...unreal!

10/29- Storm ends, pretty nice

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be a better day than yesterday, especially with regards to temperatures, which will be near record-breaking as 70 is possible today. Unfortunately, it comes with the general nastiness that follows the end of a 2-4" rainstorm, which is what most of the state is winding down right now. As that moves out, there are no serious rain chances for the foreseeable future and temps way above average for the first week of November, though chillier weather looks likely for the second week of the month.

In both the Atlantic and Pacific- Development is nowhere to be found.

Today in weather history- double special-

Today is a day that lives in infamy for CT weather

October 29, 2011- An incredibly rare early season nor'easter pummels Connecticut, dropping as much as a foot and a half of heavy wet snow on the state, giving 5+" to nearly everyone, and knocking out power to a record 830,000 people. The tree damage was as severe as what the state had experienced during Hurricane Irene just two months prior.

October 29, 2012- Just one year later, Hurricane Sandy makes its' final landfall in New Jersey, which puts Connecticut on the windy side and causing another severe and crippling blow to the region. Many houses along the shoreline are destroyed, winds gust as high as 85mph. Some people lose power for two weeks for the third time in 14 months.

Compared to those two, today's storm feels like nothing!

10/28- Horrid evening ahead

Good Wednesday all-

I know it's not a good morning for Mets fans, who lost in horrible fashion last night...ouch.

Today, mother nature will weep with them as well, as clouds increase and eventually begin to precipitate copious amounts this afternoon. Wind, rain, and even thunderstorms are possible as the remnants of Hurricane Patricia move through the great lakes. All in all, expect 1-3" of rain. Beyond that, Halloween looks nice with temps in the mid-50s, while the first week of November appears much warmer than usual. Use caution though- hints of an accumulating snow between 11/7 and 11/11 do exist.

In the Atlantic & Pacific- No development

Today in weather history- October 28, 1988- Estes Park, CO, climbs from a record breaking 15 to 45 degrees in a grand total of just 30 minutes. This can happen...but is highly unusual, and is almost always the result of an extremely powerful front moving through

10/27- Soaker tomorrow

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be a very average day for late October- low 60s and partly sunny skies. Unfortunately, our fun ends tomorrow afternoon as rain moves in, and tomorrow will become generally a miserable day with pouring rain developing in the afternoon. As much as 2-3" of rain will likely fall between noon tomorrow and noon Thursday...yikes! We do need it, however, and it clears things out nicely for Halloween weekend, which looks cold but dry, fortunately. The first week of November looks mild, but there are some indications that the weekend of 11/7 and 11/8 could feature a significant snowstorm if everything comes together. Naturally, things will change, as we're over 11 days out, and it takes a perfect setup this early to produce an accumulating snow. That said, it's not impossible (note 11/7/2012)...so anything's fair game.

In the Atlantic and Pacific- No development is expected. You would be better spent watching pen ink dry.

Today in weather history- October 27, 1764- Somehow, Rutland, MA receives 22 inches of snow. That happens probably about once a century in New England at this time of year (we experienced the 21st century's already on 10/29/11)

Today also marks Game 1 of the 2015 World Series between the Royals and Mets. The weather in Kansas City tonight will feature scattered showers and cold weather, so you'll see long sleeves for sure, and likely a pitching-dominated game. Since neither team relies on the longball, I'd say there is no advantage...but would probably give the Mets a slim edge based on weather.

10/26- Wednesday washout, cold Halloween

Good Monday all-

Today and tomorrow will be very similar- highs in the low to mid 60s and sunshine, average for this time of year. Unfortunately, what the real news is this week comes Wednesday afternoon, as the remnants of Hurricane Patricia move into New England, bringing with it a much-needed soaking rainstorm, primarily overnight Weds/Thurs. Halloween looks cold. I'm running short on time this morning, but those are the key points of the week.

No development is expected in either basin this week.


Today in weather history- October 26, 1859- New York, NY receives 4" of snow, the earliest 1+" snowfall on record. It's likely this is similar to the event of 10/29/11

10/23- History in the Pacific- nothing much here

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE!!! WE MADE IT!!

Today and tomorrow look amazing, albeit a bit on the frisky side, with temps in the 50s and bright sunshine both days. Sunday will be a bit warmer, but it'll come at the price of some rain, There will likely be a freeze overnight tonight into tomorrow, so cover up those plants as lows will go into the mid-20s. The early part of next week looks fine, but then the remnants of Hurricane Patricia will effect us in the middle of next week, bringing a colossal rainstorm with several inches of rain likely by Weds/Thurs.

In the Atlantic- Nothing's going on.

In the Pacific- History has been made this morning, as Patricia has become the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere at 880mb, surpassing 2005's Hurricane Wilma. Max winds are near 200mph, which could be the world record for the highest wind ever recorded in a Tropical Cyclone. That in itself is amazing. What's horrifying as all heck, though, is that intensification is possible through the day today...until a FINAL LANDFALL IN MEXICO AT PEAK INTENSITY. My lord. Thoughts and prayers go out to those in Manzanillo and surrounding areas as they are about to experience the strongest hurricane to make landfall, in any basin, in recorded history.

Patricia is today's weather history entry. I can't begin to describe how amazing that storm is. Keep your fingers crossed for areas just south of Puerto Vallarta.

10/22- Slight Shower Risk

Good Thursday all-

The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday, so scattered PM showers today are the only thing to worry about. I'm in a bit of a rush right now, though, so I've gotta keep this short- highs in the mid-70s likely today, cooler tomorrow, some showers hanging around on Monday.

In the Atlantic- Zzzz....

In the Pacific- Major Hurricane Patricia is shaping up to be an absolute disaster for Mexico, as it's undergoing rapid intensification, and is likely to make landfall as a high end cat 3/low end cat 4 this weekend. My thoughts go to those who are about to be impacted by this devastating storm.

Today in weather history-- October 22, 1988- A major nor'easter strikes New England, bringing as much as a foot of snow to northeastern New York state. The story of the day for the rest of New England, however, was the wind, which gusted to hurricane force in places.

10/21- Warm!

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a beautiful, beautiful day, featuring highs in the 70s and bright sunshine. That's amazing for this time of year! Even better, we get to do it again tomorrow...though tomorrow has the potential to feature a few isolated showers in the late afternoon/early evening hours in association with a cold front that is moving on through. The weekend, as a result, will be seasonably cool with highs in the 60s. Additionally, Sunday morning has the potential of including a few rain showers. The early part of next week looks like very typical October weather- low 60s and sunshine.

A large storm of some kind now looks rather likely very near or on Halloween...of course, forecasting it more than a mention is a guessing game 10 days out.

In the Atlantic- There are far better ways to spend this beautiful day than watching the Atlantic, so enjoy it (No development anytime soon)

In the Pacific- Mexico is in trouble from newly formed Tropical Storm Patricia, as the storm will intensify while paralleling the coast, then make an abnormal turn north to lead to a rather rare direct landfall, likely as an intense hurricane. Hopefully, this doesn't pan out, but it sure looks likely.

Today in weather history- October 21, 1988- Hurricane Joan makes its' final landfall in Nicaragua at peak intensity with 145mph winds, a highly unusual landfall location, especially this late in October. Not only that, the storm never, in its' lifespan, passes above 12 degrees north. This is a hugely abnormal storm, and one that would be very hard to duplicate, especially in late October!!


Marty McFly will be arriving in slightly over ten hours. I hope he enjoys the pleasant weather!

10/20- Getting much warmer

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be significantly warmer than the other recent days, with temperatures in the mid-60s and bright sunshine. Happily, this pattern change for the better will last for three days, as similar conditions will be prevalent through Thursday afternoon- when we will likely hit 70. Thursday night, a few scattered showers are possible as a cold front moves through, but I expect most people will stay dry at the present time. Unfortunately, you will feel the effect- Friday looks to feature highs in the mid-50s, which is slightly below average for this time of year. 60s look to dominate this weekend, but it looks as though somewhere between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon will feature some rain showers.

How unusual was the snow Sunday? It's just the fifth time in the last 110 years that snow was recorded at BDL...and that's saying something. That correlates to about one October snowfall every 22 years...so to have had now 2 in 4 years is something (we all remember the ridiculous 10/29/11 storm, I'm sure).

In the Atlantic- A low right on the Yucatan has a tiny chance of developing, but it's so unlikely it is barely worth mentioning. For the most part, then, the Atlantic remains quiet.

In the Pacific- A new tropical storm is developing off the coast of Mexico, but it poses no direct threat to land (though surf will surely be kicked up). Additionally, Olaf has rapidly intensified into a category 4 hurricane, and it could become a category 5, but thankfully poses no threat to Hawaii or any other land areas.

Today in weather history- October 20- Today is one of those days that nothing of any significance has happened in the weather world, unfortunately.

10/19- Getting warmer...

Good Monday all-

Many towns in Connecticut recieved the first flakes of snow for 2015 yesterday, including my house in Naugatuck. This is unusually early to see the first snow, and is just a week later than the record earliest, which occurred on October 10. The good news is that our cold snap is over, and temps will climb into the upper 50s to near 60 today. We'll be in the mid-60s much of the week until a cold front moves through dry on Thursday night, dropping the temps back into the 50s. The next chance of any rain looks to come Sunday as a cold front moves through Connecticut, and there are indications of another cold blast in the early portions of next week. A very early look at Halloween looks rather wet.

In the Atlantic- No development anytime soon

In the Pacific- As expected, the tropical depression in the middle of nowhere became Tropical Storm and now Hurricane Olaf, but it still poses no direct threat to land, though the surf will be kicked up in Hawaii (to the delight of the surfers). The bigger concern is that a low paralleling Mexico is probably going to be Tropical Storm Patricia in the next few days as it is very near.

Today in weather history- October 19, 1961- In West Virginia, a heavy rain changes to a thick and wet snow, and drops as much as two feet in parts of the state, leading to the worst forest disaster in the area since a fire in 1952 as the leaves were still on the trees, causing a similar event to what CT experienced on 10/29/11

10/15- Arctic blast & first flakes?

Good Thursday all-

The forecast remains almost identical to yesterday, with perhaps a somewhat increased risk of snow in the overnight on Sunday/Monday as a clipper system tries to move through the region. There would be no accumulation, but some towns, especially west of I-91, will likely see some flakes flying for the first time this season. The other question is how low the temps will go on Sunday night- some models are now indicating 25ish for the colder spots, but certainly everyone is getting a hard freeze!

Don't go to north New Hampshire this weekend, as they are expecting a major snowstorm.

In the Atlantic- Cold weather in the northeast is much more interesting than watching a dead quiet Atlantic basin (no development anytime soon)

In the Pacific- Tropical Depression #19-E has formed, and will become Tropical Storm Olaf later this afternoon. It should strengthen into a hurricane as well, but it poses no threat to any land mass.

Today in weather history- October 15, 1954- In a storm many up and down the east coast still remember, Hurricane Hazel makes its' final landfall on the border between North and South Carolina at peak intensity, a 130-mph cat 4. It survives as a storm with tropical storm-force winds all the way up the east coast and into Toronto, causing the modern equivalent of $3 billion in damage, killing between 500 and 1,000 people, and becoming one of the most notorious hurricanes in recorded history. Most people born before 1947 or so will likely have a strong memory of this unique event, so if you desire more info, most people will know what you are referring to if they are old enough to have experienced this remarkable event.

10/14- I won't bore you

Hey everyone-

The forecast is exactly the same as it was yesterday, so I won't bore you by typing it again. Just remember the countdown to the freezer on Saturday night is rapidly approaching, though the real killer will be the mid-20s night on Sunday evening. Get those plants ready!

In the Atlantic- zzzz...zzz...huh? Oh, no development is expected, now let me sleep...zzz...zzz

In the Pacific- See yesterday's post

Today in weather history- October 14, 1965- Ft. Lauderdale, FL manages to receive 25.28" of rain, causing significant flooding. This was highly localized though, as areas just ten miles away received only 4". Odd, but not that unusual, as weather has the tendency to be highly localized like that. Notice that this winter is highly likely to feature storms with highly local accumulations, not because of any atypical pattern, but because it happens every year.

10/13- Showery

Good Tuesday all-

The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday. It's going to be fairly warm today, but a cold front is moving through the northeast today, and a coastal low is quite nearby bringing some showery weather to us. This will last almost all day today as both are fairly slow moving, and effecting us one after the other. The next few days look seasonable, with partly sunny skies and temps in the mid-60s, which is near the normal temperatures for mid-October. This weekend, however, will feature the first freeze for all of Connecticut as temps plummet possibly into the 20s for lows both Saturday night and Sunday night, marking the official end of the 2015 growing season. Highs will likely struggle to even reach 50 on these days, and the extreme northwest hills could even see a few snowflakes flying around if everything comes together right. A warm up back to normal temperatures looks likely for the early part of next week.

In the Atlantic- Snooze on, there won't be any news here. (no development anytime soon)

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Nora remains weak and poses no threat to Hawaii despite its' relatively close proximity. Also, a low off Mexico will likely develop but move into the black hole of the Pacific between Mexico and Hawaii where the only ones effected will be fish.

Today in weather history- October 13- Sometimes, there are days in the universe that for whatever reason simply do not tend to produce interesting weather. This is one of them. Other than a relatively minor hurricane about 150 years ago, no other significant weather has happened on this date, as far as my research goes.

10/12- Not bad to start, frigid weekend

Good Monday all-

Happy Columbus Day, enjoy the day off-

Today is going to be absolutely stunning, and likely the last truly "warm" day of 2015. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to near 80 in some cases, with partly cloudy skies and generally beautiful conditions. As we move into tomorrow, however, changes begin. Although the temps will still be moderate, a cold front will move through, as might a few scattered showers from a coastal storm passing well to our southeast. This means that, generally, tomorrow's forecast will feature a significant chance of rain, as the cold front will also have showers with it. Although it won't be a total washout, I'd still recommend your umbrella. The rest of the week will feel distinctly cooler with mid-60s for highs on both Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will move through on Friday, producing what may be a round of heavier rain in the overnight. This will really knock temperatures down. Highs over the weekend may never touch 60, and some areas likely will see the first freeze of the season. It wouldn't even surprise me to see a snow flurry or two in the higher elevations of western Connecticut.

In the Atlantic- There are far, far better ways to spend this beautiful fall day over watching the Atlantic for development. This includes watching  paint dry. (no development anytime soon)

In the Pacific- A low off Mexico could will probably become a tropical storm, but it doesn't matter as it poses no threat to land. Tropical Storm Nora in the central Pacific may effect Hawaii, but its' doubtful it will be strong enough to have any noticeable impact on the islands.

Today in weather history- October 12, 1962- A major windstorm strikes the Pacific Northwest, bringing hurricane conditions to the region, with 100mph gusts and causing significant tree damage and power outages. 48 people are killed, and $210 million (1962 USD) is caused by the storm

10/8- Stormy tomorrow

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be delightful, and highs in the mid to upper 60s throughout the state today along with predominantly sunny skies. Unfortunately tomorrow, although it'll start well enough, could feature strong thunderstorms as a cold front moves through. Regardless of thunderstorms, rain is all but certain tomorrow afternoon...but it should be gone by Saturday, which is nice, except Saturday will be frigid, with highs barely making the 60s. The pick of the weekend is Monday, Columbus Day, as temps will be near 70, before they begin to drop back down into the lower 60s as the end of next week approaches.

In the Atlantic- Memorable Joaquin has finally died in the north Atlantic, but not before devastating the Bahamas and Bermuda, in addition to sinking that boat off the north coast of the Bahamas, yet the most significant way people will remember this storm is by how it gave everyone on the east coast a real fright for several days last week.

In the Pacific- A low will probably develop into a tropical storm this weekend, but it's really in the middle of nowhere and poses no threat to land. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for Hurricane Oho which, although it will become extratropical today, poses a very real threat to the shoreline of...ALASKA. Yeah, that's just...odd. In fact, I don't believe such a feat has ever happened before. Just bizarre! All that aside, it could be a very devastating storm for the hardy folks in AK, so my thoughts go out to them.

10/6- Beautiful night for Baseball...not much rain in sight

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be downright beautiful, as will tomorrow. Temperatures should manage to climb into the low 70s, accompanied by partly sunny skies and dry weather. Beyond that, although temps will cool down a bit, Thursday will still be dry. It's Friday afternoon that I'm concerned about in terms of rain though- a cold front will be moving through with a line of fairly heavy rain showers, and therefore plans for the late afternoon or evening on Friday could be in some jeopardy. Fortunately, it should be gone by Saturday morning and the weekend and early part of next week looks dry and seasonable with highs in the mid-60s, about average for this time of year.

In the Atlantic- Watching the Yankees tonight, even if they lose>>>>>watching the tropical Atlantic (No development anytime soon)

In the Pacific- Tropical Storm Oho formed in the Central Pacific and is near hurricane status, but it's quickly moving away from Hawaii, and the only threat could be to the Pacific Northwest or Alaska as an extratropical storm.

Today in weather history- October 6, 1836- Somehow, an early season storm system manages to drop 11" of snow on Wilkes Barre, PA. Even more remarkable is Auburn, NY, who picked up a whopping 26"!!!

Shoutout to the Yankees playing the Wild-Card Game tonight at Yankee Stadium. Good luck!

10/5- Autumn Finally Here

Good Monday all-

This week looks fall like in regards to temperatures- they'll be pretty cool and only nip at the heels of the 70s- some people will get there tomorrow and Wednesday- but for the most part we're going to be seeing 60s for this week. Fortunately, most of this week will be entirely dry, with the exception of Friday night and Saturday morning, but most of that should fall in the overnight hours, leading to a rather minimal impact on our weather.

The week after that, however, there are some signs of a major cool down (as in highs in the 40s and 50s) with the potential of some flakes flying. This would take place between say the 15th and 20th.

In the Atlantic- Joaquin pounded Bermuda as a cat 2 yesterday, but now has weakened to a category 1 and is no longer going to be an issue for anyone. Elsewhere, a Cape Verde tropical wave has some chance of development when it gets towards the Bahamas, but probably about a week from now. The next name on the list is Kate.

In the Pacific- The basin is sleeping (no development anytime soon)

Today in weather history- October 5, 1638- Apparently, a strong hurricane strikes New England as described by John Winthrop, knocking down many trees along its' path.

Thoughts and prayers go out to those effected by Joaquin in Bermuda as well as the victims of the devastating floods in South Carolina.

10/2- Saved by 0.3 degrees latitude

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-

Well, after a brief scare last night I am now able to say with 75-90% confidence that the storm will miss east. It's not "game over", but I think that the threat has diminished sufficiently for me to drop the severe storm watch. It's still going to be nasty on the Sound this weekend and feature strong rip currents, so please be wary if you're going to be boating or some other item. What's really fascinating is just how close this thing was to being a disaster. The storm is moving northwest at 3 mph at 74.7 degrees latitude. Had it made it to 75, it likely would have been captured by the trough and thrown into the coast. Thus, quite literally, the US has been saved by a mere 0.3 degrees latitude...or about 20 miles. SO close, and yet so far.

I hope that you'll forgive me for sounding the alarm for this one. Models have been (and honestly remain) all over the place, but we're finally settling on the ots solution. I am sure many of you are relieved, but perhaps annoyed at the false alarm, but I'll always say "better safe than sorry". Here's how close it is


That line that's closest to the center marks 75 degrees west latitude. THAT's how close

Elsewhere in the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Kate could be forming east of Bermuda, but it poses no threat to land whatsoever

In the Pacific- Marty became a hurricane briefly two days ago, but has now died out, and no further storm bears watching at the moment.

Today in weather history- October 2, 1959- Ivy, VA is struck by a somewhat strong tornado, but remarkably kills 11 people...including 10 from the same family, which is really incredibly coincidental.

SEVERE STORM WATCH- Threat lessens, but not gone

Good evening,

Models have been trending further and further east until now both major models show a total whiff of the US coast, a major trend in a good direction for us here in New England. There are, however, a few red flags that prevent me from dropping the watch at this time.

The main one is current observations. Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin is modeled to begin a northward motion soon...as in RIGHT NOW. No major model has shown a storm moving past 75.5 degrees west and sent it out to sea because that trough will cycle anything around it and shoot it somewhere into the east coast. The problem is that not only is Joaquin moving WEST, but also SOUTH, which is against the steering current. Any further westward movement, even if it's WNW, will be extremely close to being a capture. For what it's worth, even though the threat level is diminshed, I wish to show something to you





Similar much? Yeah, I thought so, and the same time frame out. Thus, we certainly can't write this thing off yet.

Please enjoy tonight. The model runs tonight will either cause me to upgrade this to a warning or drop it...unless we witness a capture, which would change everything.

SEVERE STORM WATCH- Out to sea?

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be alright, in fact, it'll be the dryest day this week, and temps will be in the mid-60s, adding to the pleasantness. Tomorrow, rain will develop from south to north...aah but you don't care about this stuff. On to Joaquin!

The forecast has pulled a fast one on us overnight, and the story has completely changed. I think we can rule out one of the options that we were discussing last night...the North Carolina landfall! Yes, what was the most likely path last night is now clearly the least likely. The 0z GFS gave everyone in New England a scare by sending Joaquin basically straight over New Haven as a high end cat 1/2 hurricane, but the 6z model sends it out to sea to the east, which the Euro has been showing for days. IF that is indeed the final solution, we REALLY will have to trust the Euro for these east coast storms (it nailed Sandy far before other models as well). It seems, then, that the only two options left are a direct hit for Connecticut, New Jersey, Long Island, etc., or a track out to sea to the east. Overall, the threat this morning is greater than it was last night...but due to the over 300 mile east track shift, the watch will stay a watch instead of becoming a warning. Any westward tick, however, will put Connecticut right in the crosshairs. Keep your eyes open and stay vigilant.

Today in weather history- October 1, 1893- A large hurricane hits the Mississippi Delta, resulting in the deaths of more than one thousand people.