Models have been trending further and further east until now both major models show a total whiff of the US coast, a major trend in a good direction for us here in New England. There are, however, a few red flags that prevent me from dropping the watch at this time.
The main one is current observations. Category 4 Hurricane Joaquin is modeled to begin a northward motion soon...as in RIGHT NOW. No major model has shown a storm moving past 75.5 degrees west and sent it out to sea because that trough will cycle anything around it and shoot it somewhere into the east coast. The problem is that not only is Joaquin moving WEST, but also SOUTH, which is against the steering current. Any further westward movement, even if it's WNW, will be extremely close to being a capture. For what it's worth, even though the threat level is diminshed, I wish to show something to you
Similar much? Yeah, I thought so, and the same time frame out. Thus, we certainly can't write this thing off yet.
Please enjoy tonight. The model runs tonight will either cause me to upgrade this to a warning or drop it...unless we witness a capture, which would change everything.
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