Today is going to be alright, in fact, it'll be the dryest day this week, and temps will be in the mid-60s, adding to the pleasantness. Tomorrow, rain will develop from south to north...aah but you don't care about this stuff. On to Joaquin!
The forecast has pulled a fast one on us overnight, and the story has completely changed. I think we can rule out one of the options that we were discussing last night...the North Carolina landfall! Yes, what was the most likely path last night is now clearly the least likely. The 0z GFS gave everyone in New England a scare by sending Joaquin basically straight over New Haven as a high end cat 1/2 hurricane, but the 6z model sends it out to sea to the east, which the Euro has been showing for days. IF that is indeed the final solution, we REALLY will have to trust the Euro for these east coast storms (it nailed Sandy far before other models as well). It seems, then, that the only two options left are a direct hit for Connecticut, New Jersey, Long Island, etc., or a track out to sea to the east. Overall, the threat this morning is greater than it was last night...but due to the over 300 mile east track shift, the watch will stay a watch instead of becoming a warning. Any westward tick, however, will put Connecticut right in the crosshairs. Keep your eyes open and stay vigilant.
Today in weather history- October 1, 1893- A large hurricane hits the Mississippi Delta, resulting in the deaths of more than one thousand people.
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