Well, after a brief scare last night I am now able to say with 75-90% confidence that the storm will miss east. It's not "game over", but I think that the threat has diminished sufficiently for me to drop the severe storm watch. It's still going to be nasty on the Sound this weekend and feature strong rip currents, so please be wary if you're going to be boating or some other item. What's really fascinating is just how close this thing was to being a disaster. The storm is moving northwest at 3 mph at 74.7 degrees latitude. Had it made it to 75, it likely would have been captured by the trough and thrown into the coast. Thus, quite literally, the US has been saved by a mere 0.3 degrees latitude...or about 20 miles. SO close, and yet so far.
I hope that you'll forgive me for sounding the alarm for this one. Models have been (and honestly remain) all over the place, but we're finally settling on the ots solution. I am sure many of you are relieved, but perhaps annoyed at the false alarm, but I'll always say "better safe than sorry". Here's how close it is
That line that's closest to the center marks 75 degrees west latitude. THAT's how close
Elsewhere in the Atlantic- Tropical Storm Kate could be forming east of Bermuda, but it poses no threat to land whatsoever
In the Pacific- Marty became a hurricane briefly two days ago, but has now died out, and no further storm bears watching at the moment.
Today in weather history- October 2, 1959- Ivy, VA is struck by a somewhat strong tornado, but remarkably kills 11 people...including 10 from the same family, which is really incredibly coincidental.
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