Tuesday, May 31, 2016

5/31- Big oopsie yesterday...but nicer now

Good Tuesday all-

First off, I flat out blew a high-stakes forecast yesterday and I sincerely apologize, the reason being that the afternoon batch of storms stayed well off to our north and west, a solution which was literally not indicated by even one computer model. The end result was that we had very little (if any) precip after 10 or 11, so I hope that you didn't cancel your outdoor plans based on my forecast. It just goes to show that even in a world with all the technology we have available to us...we can still be surprised, and that's exactly what we did yesterday. The next few days will be partly sunny and progressively cooler, as highs will range from the mid-80s today to the low 70s on Thursday. Showers look to move in by Friday night with a warm front. Saturday looks fine...but unfortunately Sunday afternoon and Monday look to include a significant rain event at this time. Take that with a grain of salt though- we all know what can happen now :( (shakes head)

In the Atlantic- Tropical Depression Bonnie has died over the Carolinas as of yesterday afternoon, but it will continue to produce rain over the region as a non-tropical low pressure system. Wind effects, however, will be extremely minimal. The Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins tomorrow.

In the Pacific- The low I was talking about yesterday now has an 80% chance of becoming Tropical Storm Agatha by the weekend, but even if it does it poses no threat to land whatsoever and the rest of the basin is quiet.

Today in weather history- May 31, 1889- The greatest flood disaster in American history occurs as a dam 22 miles north of Johnstown, PA bursts...unleashing a 22-foot wall of water onto the city, sweeping away everything in its' path. The flood kills 2,209 people and causes half a billion dollars (2016 USD) in damage. By comparison, Hurricane Katrina killed about 700 fewer people, but caused significantly more damage. Had Katrina occurred back in 1889...let's really not think about what would have happened.

Monday, May 30, 2016

5/30- Memorial Day Washout

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be one of the worst Memorial Days for weather in recent memory as it is going to pour for at least 3/4 of the day today, and even once it's gone it won't exactly be pleasant with all the water on the ground. This is in association with both a weak cold front and Tropical Depression Bonnie to our south. The saving grace is that highs will not reach 80 today, so we can at least get a break from the humidity. After today, we are going to have three nice days, with increasingly cool temps through the week- 80s tomorrow, high 70s Wednesday, and middle 70s Thursday. By Friday, clouds will be on the increase and it may be rainy...or it could come Saturday instead, depending on which model you believe. In any event, one of those days will be rather unpleasant!

In the Atlantic- Tropical Depression Bonnie sits just off the Carolina coastline today after making landfall early yesterday morning as a 35mph storm, but it's not exactly likely to re-intensify much as it moves to the east. Please note that the reason Bonnie is named now is because it briefly attained Tropical Storm status late Saturday afternoon, reaching its' peak intensity of 45mph at that time.

In the Pacific- A low about 1000 miles west of the Baja Peninsula has some development potential by the weekend, but it shouldn't post much of a risk to any land areas.

Today in weather history- May 30, 1988- A shocking turn of events for Yellowstone National Park, as they receive 8" of snow, forcing the closure of many roads within the park. Although such an event is for obvious reasons exceedingly rare, it's not as unusual as you would think as the same regions had a Winter Weather Advisory as recently as last weekend!




Have a very happy Memorial Day and remember all that paid the ultimate price for defending our country.




Friday, May 27, 2016

5/27- Heat Continues- some Storms

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-

It's a holiday weekend!

Unfortunately, though... it won't be all that pleasant of a day in the weather world as temps climb into the 90s for the third time in a row at BDL, which should result in the first heat wave of 2016. The problem with this is A- it'll feel completely miserable thanks to humidity and B- thunderstorms are possible tonight. Fortunately...they should not be too severe- the risk is only a SEE TEXT, so I'd be surprised if a single severe warning went up tonight- but they could be a nuisance with briefly torrential rain. As we move along, two of the three weekend days look great, but Monday...Memorial Day itself...looks like a total washout thanks to both a spot in the jet stream that enhances rising motion...and influence from what will by then be Tropical Storm Bonnie to our south. This will cause a very rare event for Memorial Day- I cannot personally remember the last time we had a consistent hard rain all day on this holiday- it's been quite a while!

In the Atlantic- That low off the southeast coast has become better defined overnight and probably is going to be named Tropical Storm Bonnie this afternoon as it meanders towards the SE coast. It'll likely make landfall in South Carolina on either Sunday or Monday as a weak tropical storm. When it becomes named, 2016 will join 2012 and 1951 as the only two seasons in recorded history with multiple named storms before the season begins on June 1. Both these seasons were quite active...but of course although we remember the 2012 season for Hurricane Sandy, 1951 was not particularly memorable- actually all of its' storms stayed out to sea. That being said, it only takes one!

No development is expected in the Pacific

Today in weather history- May 27, 1896- A massive tornado crushes the eastern part of St. Louis, MO and kills 306 people, making it one of the deadliest tornadoes on record. This is one of the few instances of a direct tornado strike to a major city...not because of any meteorological phenomenon (contrary to popular belief) but because there's just not that many cities in that part of the country...so to get a tornado to track right over one is hard! Other notable "downtown" tornadoes have hit Miami, Atlanta, and Salt Lake City in the past.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

5/25- Last dry one for a while...

Good Wednesday all-

Today is going to be a beautiful day- we're heading to the 80s with bright sunshine today- a true July-esque day...which will be occurring more frequently as June 1 is just a week away. For a statewide average...I'll go with an 83 and partly sunny skies. As we move ahead though...the weather will become downright hot...it'll be near 90 in parts of the region tomorrow. Unfortunately with these increased temperatures and high humidity...not only will it feel miserable...but those popup showers and storms are highly likely until at least Memorial Day and potentially even beyond. That said, there will be a great deal of enhancement over the first two days of the weekend from a low sitting off to our north.

High pressure will attempt to build in for the middle part of next week. Whether or not it does is very important to our weather. A tropical system is going to form to our south, and if the high is in place, we will be fine as it would deflect the system to our southeast. If it isn't, then the storm could attempt to climb the coast. At the moment...the first seems significantly more likely...so there is no need for any overreaction at this time. The models are still very much in disagreement...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016052500/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26.png
^ CMC model showing a tropical storm in New England on Tuesday

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052506/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_25.png
 ^ 12z GFS showing the tropical system in the Carolinas and our area being shielded by a high pressure off to the northwest

Thoughts and prayers go out to those effected by the tornadoes in Kansas.

In the Atlantic- The NHC gives the area described above a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days. If I lived in coastal SC, GA, or FL, I would keep a very close eye on this one.

In the Pacific- No development is expected anytime soon.

There are a measly 7 days...or one week...until the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today in weather history- May 25, 1987- Someone on a boat in northwestern Louisiana is struck and killed by lightning while on a boat while standing up and begging for lightning to strike him. To say this is absolutely moronic is an understatement...DO NOT DO IT.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

5/24- Close Encounters of the Wet Kind

Good Tuesday all-

Unfortunately, it appears today will be much wetter than originally expected, as it now appears as though we can expect a consistent light rain through much of the day today. By the afternoon, however, these showers will become thunderstorms, although they shouldn't be particularly strong- we only have a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather. As for temperatures...it's quite difficult to forecast today...but I will go with mid-60s and hope for the best. This is the medium solution of the models- one gives us low 70s, while another says high 50s. That 15 degree temperature difference is nasty for forecasters for sure! As the week progresses, we can surely expect a warmup as tomorrow we should reach the low 80s, followed by the mid 80s on Thursday. 80s can also be expected until Sunday. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out any day from Thursday on.

In the Atlantic- I'm still concerned about that low off the southeastern coast of the US. Most models are less aggressive than they were yesterday...but the Canadian model shows a category 1 hurricane hitting North Carolina on Tuesday. This is an extreme (not to mention extremely unlikely) solution, but certainly shows that some kind of development remains possible. Models are also picking up on a second storm forming in the same place by the end of next week, but that's still way out there.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016052400/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_31.png
 ^ The extremely unlikely solution of a hurricane in North Carolina, as shown by the 00z CMC model



There are now just 8 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season

In the Pacific- Development is not expected anytime soon

Today in weather history- May 24, 1990- In a perfect example of what not to do in a tornado, six people are injured in central Kansas whilst attempting to outrun a tornado in their cars. This strategy will not work...and is far too risky to even consider. A car is probably, in fact, the most dangerous place to be in a tornado...other than a mobile home...or standing outside. The lesson? If a tornado is coming...please go to the basement...not your car!








Monday, May 23, 2016

5/23- We Dodged a Bullet...hot Temps Arrive

Good Monday all-

You may have heard over the weekend that this week will be a scorcher...that is incorrect. Sure it'll be noticeably warmer than recent weeks (highs at least Wednesday and Thursday should be in the mid-80s) but there will be showers and thunderstorms around most days, and today is no exception to that rule. We're heading to the mid 70s with partly cloudy conditions today as a general rule though- the thunderstorms tonight should be scattered in nature. They'll be more widespread tomorrow though as they are associated with a low that is going to move very close to or directly over our area tomorrow (this is the system that briefly threatened to become tropical last week). Fortunately, any storms this week shouldn't be severe- the highest risk of any day this week is tomorrow, according to the NWS, and even that event is only classified as SEE TEXT (the least significant of the bunch).

As we get into the summer severe season here in New England, it's not a bad idea to familiarize yourselves with the severe risk categories. From the least to the most significant they are SEE TEXT (weak, scattered storms), MARGINAL (a few stronger cells possible), SLIGHT (many thunderstorms, several reaching severe levels), ENHANCED (widespread severe), MODERATE (threat of long lived tornadoes and/or extreme hail) and HIGH (historic tornado outbreak with numerous strong twisters and massive hail likely). Of these, I've only seen a moderate risk ever issued for Connecticut one time in my life...so if we get anything higher than ENHANCED...that really would need to be noted!

In the Atlantic- I am getting increasingly concerned for my friends along the southeast coast today as a tropical system appears highly likely to develop just south of the Carolinas and move either west or northwest into the region at some point about a week from now. It shouldn't be overly strong...but it could easily become Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second named storm of the season. If it forms before next Wednesday...it would be just the second time in the modern era there have been two named storms before June 1 (the other was 2012, which was highly active and produced Hurricane Sandy...ouch)

The GFS is pictured below for next Monday night...notice our tropical storm making landfall in Georgia...
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_31.png

In the Pacific- Development is not expected!

There are just 9 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Today in weather history- May 23, 1882- To the shock of the people of Iowa, parts of the state receive a half foot of snow! Having this occur in Iowa is extremely rare, but it is significantly easier to have that happen inland rather than here due to the warm influence of the gulf stream on our weather...along with more harsh intrusions of arctic air into the midwestern US. That said...this is still an extremely impressive event indeed!










Friday, May 20, 2016

5/20- STORM WARNING- Very Wet Tomorrow Night

HAPPY FRIDAY ALL-

Today is going to be absolutely stunning, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and bright sunshine. Unfortunately...it cannot last very long as extreme rain moves in tomorrow night. At least one inch of rain is probably going to fall in a fairly short timeframe focused from about 10PM tomorrow night to 10AM or so on Sunday morning...so enjoy the weather while we can! Much of next week looks cool and showery...so the fun begins and ends today. Do those outdoor activities today - it may be a while before you want to do them again. As for temperatures, expect the low 70s through the weekend with potentially somewhat chillier weather the further next week goes on.

In the Pacific- No development is likely anytime soon

There are 11 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which could have an active start if you believe some models. The GFS is below, but take it as a "kicks and giggles" type of thing as anything beyond a week is a fool's gambit at best.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016052000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

Today in weather history- May 20, 1894- Somehow, Lexington, KY manages to receive 6" of snow, which is almost undoubtedly the latest significant snowfall in Kentucky. Such an event would be a once in a century (at least- and probably even longer) type deal, and one we likely won't see again anytime soon!

Thursday, May 19, 2016

5/19- STORM WATCH- Tropical Threat dies...Insanely hard weekend forecast

Good Thursday all-

Today is going to be a decent day, although thunderstorms are very possible this afternoon. Temperatures will likely be in the low 70s- let's go with 71- which is going to be only one degree below average...which will probably feel nice as we've been far below average for much of the month of May. The weekend has a very difficult forecast with models in intense disagreement on the path of a low that has potential to give us several inches of rain or nothing at all. Thus...I'll just say that the potential of a total washout exists Sunday. Much of next week looks showery, but our threat from the hybrid low I discussed yesterday has greatly diminished through the last 24 hours, with most models not even forming the low to any substantial level.

In the Pacific- Development is not expected for 5 days.

There are 13 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today in weather history- May 19, 1780- In a bizarre meteorological phenomenon, the skies over New England are pitch-black at noon thanks to wildfires burning in New York. Naturally, this terrified people living here at that time as everyone was highly religious...and thus were terrified of having incited divine wrath.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

5/18- STORM WATCH- Next Week Could Be Interesting

Good Wednesday all-

Unfortunately, life has just gotten very interesting for us here in SNE as of the last few days. The GFS and Euro have now come into remarkable agreement for this far out on a significant storm for the Tues/Weds timeframe for next week (May 24-25). There's other issues between now and then- showers tomorrow night/Fri AM and rain on Sat PM/Sun AM are very likely. Fortunately, temps should be seasonable as well, with even above average temperatures (how refreshing!) in terms of the high 70s.

The big concern lies in next week though. It's a very interesting setup...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016051800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

See that low pressure near Cape Cod and moving NW? That's a system with very complex origins, but it's probably, if I had to guess, a Subtropical Storm ending up either extremely near or directly over Connecticut. In such a scenario, I would introduce tropical storm conditions into the forecast for this timeframe. Although it's not immediately likely, there is strong support for this solution from the Euro and the Canadian models. The next name on the Atlantic list is Bonnie, but whether the system gets a name or not is not particularly important in terms of impacts- we're almost definitely looking at a complete washout with gusty winds next Tuesday.

No development is expected in the Pacific anytime soon.

There are 2 weeks...14 days...until the official Atlantic hurricane season. However, if the system described above gets a name, we'd have already had 2 named storms this season- the only time in the satellite era that we have had multiple named storms before June 1 is 2012, which proved to be a very active season and produced Hurricane Sandy.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

5/17- Just a bit Warmer Today

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be an average day, featuring slightly below70 degree temperatures and increasing clouds. There is a slim chance of a shower or two later this afternoon, but I think that most of us stay dry. That said, you may want to rethink your plans if you're going further south than central New Jersey- it'll be pouring all day in those areas. The much stronger than forecasted winds from the last few days will die off slowly today, allowing us to really feel that warmth that we so dearly have missed the last couple of days. As for the rest of the week, it looks similar to today sans the showers, as it appears we could get to the weekend dry. Unfortunately, Saturday night and Sunday look like complete washouts at this time as a large nor'easter is likely going to be close enough to buffet the region with heavy rains and gusty wind.

In the Pacific- The season has just begun, but...it's not always exciting to look here when that is the case. Actually, watching paint dry is a better use of your time today. (Development is not expected in the next 5 days)

There are 15 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Today in weather history- May 17, 1983- A golfer in Memphis, TN has lightning travel down his neck and spine, through his pocket that contained his keys, and hits a nearby tree. Somehow he managed to survive relatively unharmed, but this is a very good teaching tool- please don't play golf in thunderstorms- take shelter in the clubhouse! Holding a metal rod in a location where you often are the tallest point is really not a good idea at all...

Monday, May 16, 2016

5/16- Pretty Dry Week Ahead, Moderate Temps...

Good Monday all-

Today is going to be another unseasonable cool day, with mostly sunny skies but temperatures again failing to reach 65, which means we are below average yet again. Fortunately, however, the weather looks to gradually improve through the upcoming week- by Saturday, we'll be downright hot with highs near 80. Even better, the only chances of rain are tomorrow afternoon (and that will not be a big deal at all- in fact, many towns will stay dry) and Sunday (when a coastal storm comes close to our area). Realistically, however, it's entirely possible some of us don't see a drop of rain all week, which is unfortunate because we really could use some as precip remains below average for the year.

In the Pacific- A low in the middle of nowhere has a slim chance at developing today or tomorrow before wind shear intervenes and kills the system- the NHC has a 20% chance at development, and I'm inclined to agree with that assessment.

There are 16 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today in weather history- May 16, 1874- A dam in Northampton, MA bursts, which causes the city to have a tremendous flood event which kills 143 people and causes a million dollars (1874 USD) in property damage.

Friday, May 13, 2016

5/13- Showery today, cool Sunday

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-

Today is going to be rather dank and moist, I'm afraid, with temps in the low 70s but showers in the morning followed by afternoon thunderstorms, and there is a SEE TEXT risk of severe weather today, and again tomorrow as another cold front moves through. The combination of consecutive cold fronts will knock us down so far we probably won't hit 60 on Sunday, and that could be problematic because Sunday night showers move into the region from the west, but temperatures will still fall to near freezing. In fact, in the extreme northern sections of Litchfield County, I cannot rule out a switch to snow showers, which would be the latest snowfall ever recorded in Connecticut(!!) Until Monday then, have a great weekend!!

Sunday...May 15, 2016...marks the beginning of the Pacific Hurricane Season, which will run until November 30. This year's list of names is Agatha, Blas, Celia, Darby, Estelle, Frank, Georgette, Howard, Ivette, Javier, Kay, Lester, Madeline, Newton, Orlene, Paine, Roslyn, Seymour, Tina, Virgil, Winifred, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke. I expect this season to be below average for the basin due to the emergence of La Nina conditions. This pattern...the opposite of El Nino...is an unseasonable cooling of the Pacific, which increases wind shear across the region and tends to inhibit development.

There are 19 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today in weather history- May 13, 1930- A man caught in an open field in Lubbock, TX during a hailstorm is killed, perhaps the only known death by hail in US history. Although such an event is extremely rare, it's entirely possible even today, but with improved warning systems it's a lot harder to get caught unaware in an empty field.

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

5/11- No Real Change to Thoughts...

Good Wednesday all-

Reading this is not going to take much of your time today, because my thoughts from yesterday are still my thoughts and I have no reason to change my opinion on anything stated...so I won't...and will leave it there. Seriously. For today though- expect low to mid 70s and bright sunshine, tomorrow will be even warmer, then rain Friday and a cooler weekend.

There are a paltry 4 days until the Pacific Hurricane Season.

There are 21 days...or 3 weeks...until the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today in weather history- May 11, 1966- Chicago takes their turn in recording the latest snowfall on record, by receiving 1.6". We will see if parts of Connecticut get their latest snowfall this Sunday night. It's a long shot, but not impossible!

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

5/10- Better until the Weekend, Sunday Surprise?

Good Tuesday all-

It's cold, really cold out there this morning. Parts of Connecticut have experienced a frost overnight, which is absolutely incredible for May 10, but hey that happens sometimes. Thankfully, it is not going to be cold during the days to come- by Thursday, we are likely to have highs in the 80s in at least parts of Connecticut- and until then we're looking at partly sunny skies and increases in temperature each day. The next chance of precipitation is Friday night, when thunderstorms are likely as a cold front moves through. I cannot even rule out severe weather from this system...but I am not particularly concerned at the current time. By and large, the weekend looks dry, albeit very cold (the GFS suggests we will be stuck in the 50s)...but one model, the GFS...on Sunday night...actually produces snow showers across the state. Although not very likely by any means...this would be the latest snowfall ever recorded at BDL if that occurs.

Thoughts & prayers go out to those effected by the tornadoes yesterday in Oklahoma.

There are just 5 days until the Pacific Hurricane Season, which begins on Sunday.

There are 22 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Today in weather history- May 10, 1905- A violent tornado strikes Snyder, OK, killing some 97 people while producing a roar that reports suggest could be heard twelve miles away from the storm. Although there are no official records by any means about how far off a tornado's roar could be heard...this has to be a pretty rare event in and of itself.

Monday, May 9, 2016

5/9- Finally Clearing, Decent Week Ahead

Good Monday all-

For me, it's final exam week! WOOHOO! (NOT!!!)

A FROST ADVISORY is up for all of Connecticut except for the immediate shoreline and Litchfield County.

Fortunately, the weather will not be an issue pretty much at all this week. Today looks very pleasant as highs will be in the upper 60s with bright sunshine. In fact, the sun will shine brightly for the next several days and temps will be on the rise...in fact, we could reach 80 by Thursday! The only day that could be a problem for the next week is Saturday, which could feature some rain in the morning. It will not be overly exciting for me, which means only good things for you!

There are just 6 days until the Pacific Hurricane Season

There are 22 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Today in weather history- May 9, 1977-  The Spring Equivalent of October 2011...a massive snowstorm crushes New England as a very bizarre nor'easter develops at exactly the right moment to produce heavy snowfall just inland over New England. Norfolk, CT- which lies very near the MA border in Litchfield County...manages to receive a whopping 20" of snow and Hartford records 1.3"...the latest snowfall ever recorded at BDL.

Friday, May 6, 2016

5/6- The Wettest Day Yet

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE-

Today is going to be the wettest of all the days we have experienced this week- highs will not reach 60, and we'll be dealing with widespread showers all day as a storm system stalls out to our south.For the weekend, tomorrow looks a bit better than recent days- showers are still possible, but not nearly to the extent we've had the last few days- it's even possible that the sun makes a brief appearance during the afternoon hours. We will surely see the sun on Sunday afternoon but...there's going to be a rather heavy rain event in the morning as an arctic front moves through the region from west to east...sending the temps through the floor to near freezing on Sunday night- don't be surprised to see a frost advisory- before we finally clear things out for Monday and Tuesday before rain returns to the forecast by Wednesday with gradually moderating temps...eventually reaching above average by midweek.

There are 9 days until the Pacific Hurricane Season.

There are 25 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today in weather history- May 6, 1965- The area around the twin cities of Minneapolis/St Paul gets blitzed with four F4 tornadoes...all of which in the same vicinity. One town...Fridley...gets hit by two of them (including the exact same trailer park, which took direct hits from both) Overall, 12 people are killed and $14.5 million (1965USD) in damage occurs.

Thursday, May 5, 2016

5/5- Clouds and Showers AGAIN...sigh

Good Thursday all-

Feliz Cinco de Mayo!

Today is going to be another awful day, with temps in the mid-50s and scattered showers...along with generally overcast conditions as the same system that has been dogging us the last few days rests just to our south. Tomorrow looks even wetter, and Saturday and Sunday look showery, but fortunately we may finally get out of the pattern by early next week. The reason for this miserable week is due to something called an "Omega Block", which occurs when the jet stream has a major ridge in the center part of the country, preventing the ususal west to east flow and causing a logjam in the weather. For us in New England, when this sets up, we typically get an easterly flow...which causes persistent precipitation as seen below.



There are 10 days until the Pacific Hurricane Season.

There are 27 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Today in weather history- May 5, 1964- The last F5 tornado to hit Nebraska destroys the town of Bradshaw, killing 4 and totally destroying a very large number of farms.



Wednesday, May 4, 2016

5/4- The Fourth is Weak with the Sun Today

Good Wednesday all-

Well, the news for today in the weather world is almost exactly the same as yesterday, although it will likely be at least somewhat dryer. That said, scattered shower activity is highly likely throughout the day, with the chances particularly increasing the longer we go, eventually developing into a brief period (2-4 hrs) of steady rain later on tonight into tomorrow morning. Beyond that, we look to finally bust out of this pattern by early next week, with highs potentially approaching 80 by midweek, but it's getting there that the problem is. The worst day appears to be Friday at this time, which has the potential to be a total washout as a low spins near the coastline of New Jersey. A deep trough will follow that, likely causing extremely cold temperatures Sunday night- some areas in the higher elevations will probably freeze! A pretty interesting week continues today, so let's go on!

 Today in weather history- May 4, 1812- The worst nightmare for us New Englanders- a perfectly timed nor'easter with frigid air in place yields a horrifically late season snowstorm from Philly to Maine, dropping as much as ten inches on Boston. Oof. The only storm comparable to this would be 5/12/77- which is the latest snowfall ever recorded at BDL.

There are 11 days until the Pacific Hurricane Season

There are 28 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

May the fourth be with you today, and always.













Tuesday, May 3, 2016

5/3- The Misery Continues...

Good Tuesday all-

Today is going to be a day where we improve conditions dramatically the longer we wait- it's pouring out there this morning, and it will continue to do so for several more hours, but I think that by 9 or 10 we should be getting dryer, and thus it's quite likely that the majority of the day is dry. That said, the temps will not be all that warm- we're probably looking at temps in the 50s at best- one model says we could have trouble even getting that balmy- so be sure to wear either your sweatshirt or layers- you will not regret it.

As we move along, this week continues to look absolutely miserable with highs generally below average and chances of rain each day. Some will be wetter than others- much of tomorrow looks decent, rain tomorrow night, Thursday should be pretty alright, but Friday may be a total washout...you get the idea.

There are 12 days until the beginning of the Pacific Hurricane Season

There are 29 days until the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Today in weather history- May 3, 1999- The strongest tornado ever recorded, packing winds of 318mph, strikes Bridge Creek and Moore, OK, killing 36 people, injuring 600, and causing $1 billion in damage, remarkable for a single tornado. Despite all that, it could have been much worse- had the tornado continued for another ten minutes, it would have gone through downtown Oklahoma City, causing untold fatalities. Unfortunately, Moore has itself been hit by 3 EF5 tornadoes in the last 17 years...which is absolutely ridiculous for any location.

Monday, May 2, 2016

5/2- The Start of May and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Week of Weather

Good Monday all-

Although the weather this week is going to certainly make your life worse, unless, that is, you like cold and rainy weather, which I suspect that nobody actually does. The bottom line is that we may not see the sun until next weekend. I mean, the pattern we are currently in is absolutely ridiculous, as a cool ocean flow is going to cause showers today...and tomorrow...and Wednesday...and Thursday...and Friday...and Saturday...and Sunday...yeah you get the idea...ouch. As for temperatures...it appears like we are never going to sniff 70, and we'll have a hard time even reaching 65 on many days, which is downright ridiculous for early May Fortunately, next week does look quite a bit better, but we have to get there first, and it will be a long, painful ride.

There are 13 days until the beginning of the Pacific Hurricane Season

There are 30 days until the beginning of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Today in weather history- May 2, 1989- A strange occurrance indeed as Juneau, AK records its'  record high of 72...whilst Honolulu matches their monthly record low of 60. Something to keep in mind however is that Hawaii...thanks to its' location in the tropics and in the middle of the ocean...has very little temperature variation through the year. It's likely a bit warmer in summer but the difference is likely practically unnoticeable (2-4 degrees).