You may have heard over the weekend that this week will be a scorcher...that is incorrect. Sure it'll be noticeably warmer than recent weeks (highs at least Wednesday and Thursday should be in the mid-80s) but there will be showers and thunderstorms around most days, and today is no exception to that rule. We're heading to the mid 70s with partly cloudy conditions today as a general rule though- the thunderstorms tonight should be scattered in nature. They'll be more widespread tomorrow though as they are associated with a low that is going to move very close to or directly over our area tomorrow (this is the system that briefly threatened to become tropical last week). Fortunately, any storms this week shouldn't be severe- the highest risk of any day this week is tomorrow, according to the NWS, and even that event is only classified as SEE TEXT (the least significant of the bunch).
As we get into the summer severe season here in New England, it's not a bad idea to familiarize yourselves with the severe risk categories. From the least to the most significant they are SEE TEXT (weak, scattered storms), MARGINAL (a few stronger cells possible), SLIGHT (many thunderstorms, several reaching severe levels), ENHANCED (widespread severe), MODERATE (threat of long lived tornadoes and/or extreme hail) and HIGH (historic tornado outbreak with numerous strong twisters and massive hail likely). Of these, I've only seen a moderate risk ever issued for Connecticut one time in my life...so if we get anything higher than ENHANCED...that really would need to be noted!
In the Atlantic- I am getting increasingly concerned for my friends along the southeast coast today as a tropical system appears highly likely to develop just south of the Carolinas and move either west or northwest into the region at some point about a week from now. It shouldn't be overly strong...but it could easily become Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second named storm of the season. If it forms before next Wednesday...it would be just the second time in the modern era there have been two named storms before June 1 (the other was 2012, which was highly active and produced Hurricane Sandy...ouch)
The GFS is pictured below for next Monday night...notice our tropical storm making landfall in Georgia...
In the Pacific- Development is not expected!
There are just 9 days until the Atlantic Hurricane Season!
Today in weather history- May 23, 1882- To the shock of the people of Iowa, parts of the state receive a half foot of snow! Having this occur in Iowa is extremely rare, but it is significantly easier to have that happen inland rather than here due to the warm influence of the gulf stream on our weather...along with more harsh intrusions of arctic air into the midwestern US. That said...this is still an extremely impressive event indeed!
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