Greetings everyone-
Wow, this is going to be an adventure. First, a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is up for the northern 4 counties, but just to the north of that there is a WINTER STORM WARNING.
This is one of the toughest calls you can have as a meteorologist. Right now...the best guess is a 34 degree rain. That is insanely painful to see...because just 2 degrees colder would yield an ice storm for the ages...but that seems rather unlikely for now. The bottom line is that we can expect about 1.5" of rain/snow/sleet/fzg rain out of this. How much of each is very up in the air. For snow, anything from rain to a double-digit snowfall in northern CT is on the table. For ice, anything from nothing to up to 0.25-0.75" is on the table as well.
Thus, all I can say is to remain very aware of conditions tomorrow. As of the moment, the most likely scenario is a very, very cold rain, with temperatures just barely above the freezing mark. A two degree drop in temperature would dramatically change the ballgame, so stay tuned..
I will have an update in the morning. It's a fitting end to what has been a remarkable month of weather.
Thursday, March 30, 2017
Wednesday, March 29, 2017
3/29- March Going Out Like a Lion
Good Wednesday all-
Well, here we go once again with a snow potential. Fortunately, this one does not appear to be all that significant, with just an inch or so likely in most of the state on Friday morning. That said...the GFS throws all this out the window and drops epic amounts of snow on the region. I do not buy it, but I cannot simply ignore it at this stage in the game. Currently though, the five big models are outputting 2-2-2-2-1-20. Obviously, you can see that this seems excessively high, and is very unlikely, but let's keep our eyes out just in case. The majority of models thankfully change the precipitation to a cold rain during the day on Friday, which looks utterly dreadful regardless of precip type. By the time we are finished, we can expect an inch or more of rain. This will be nearly a drought-ender, so we can be thankful for that, but it has been a really wet week to finish March, and it shows no signs of slowing down moving into April. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. Whatever happens Friday, the best choice for the weekend is Sunday.
Unfortunately, weather history was made yesterday when the second fatal incident with storm chasers involved occurred, with three killed, including TWC's Kelley Williamson and RandyYarnall. As a meteorologist this is tough to stomach, but storm chasing remains a dangerous job. They were not impacted by a tornado- one of the cars ran a stop sign and the collision that ensued killed all 3 people involved.
Well, here we go once again with a snow potential. Fortunately, this one does not appear to be all that significant, with just an inch or so likely in most of the state on Friday morning. That said...the GFS throws all this out the window and drops epic amounts of snow on the region. I do not buy it, but I cannot simply ignore it at this stage in the game. Currently though, the five big models are outputting 2-2-2-2-1-20. Obviously, you can see that this seems excessively high, and is very unlikely, but let's keep our eyes out just in case. The majority of models thankfully change the precipitation to a cold rain during the day on Friday, which looks utterly dreadful regardless of precip type. By the time we are finished, we can expect an inch or more of rain. This will be nearly a drought-ender, so we can be thankful for that, but it has been a really wet week to finish March, and it shows no signs of slowing down moving into April. We'll just have to wait and see what happens. Whatever happens Friday, the best choice for the weekend is Sunday.
Unfortunately, weather history was made yesterday when the second fatal incident with storm chasers involved occurred, with three killed, including TWC's Kelley Williamson and RandyYarnall. As a meteorologist this is tough to stomach, but storm chasing remains a dangerous job. They were not impacted by a tornado- one of the cars ran a stop sign and the collision that ensued killed all 3 people involved.
Monday, March 27, 2017
3/27- A Rainy Week Ahead
Good Monday all-
I have been really sick for the last week- so my apologies for the lack of updates! We're heading for a period of pretty wet weather over the next several days, with temperatures generally remaining below average. Today, I expect it to rain all day with highs in the 40s...ouch...up to 1" of rain is possible...not a great day by any means. Tomorrow, the rain tapers off quite a bit and we'll be left with showers but they certainly shouldn't be a big deal. The best news is that temperatures will actually be slightly above average (not by much, but still...) with mid-50s. More 50s are likely Wednesday and Thursday before we cool things back into the 40s by Friday, setting up more pouring rain over the weekend. At the moment, Saturday looks like a cold day (potentially in the mid-30s!)and a total washout...and maybe even feature some mixed precipitation, especially in northern areas. For the last day of March, that's pretty painful. At least it's not a big snowstorm like we saw a few weeks ago.
Thoughts go out to those effected by the midwest tornadoes yesterday, and those that will be in the coming days
Today in weather history- March 27, 1984- Cotulla, TX records the all time March high temperature for the United States by reaching an incredible 108 degrees. Additionally...
March 27, 1890- A major tornado strikes downtown Louisville, KY, and kills 78 people and does $4 million (1890USD) in damage.
I have been really sick for the last week- so my apologies for the lack of updates! We're heading for a period of pretty wet weather over the next several days, with temperatures generally remaining below average. Today, I expect it to rain all day with highs in the 40s...ouch...up to 1" of rain is possible...not a great day by any means. Tomorrow, the rain tapers off quite a bit and we'll be left with showers but they certainly shouldn't be a big deal. The best news is that temperatures will actually be slightly above average (not by much, but still...) with mid-50s. More 50s are likely Wednesday and Thursday before we cool things back into the 40s by Friday, setting up more pouring rain over the weekend. At the moment, Saturday looks like a cold day (potentially in the mid-30s!)and a total washout...and maybe even feature some mixed precipitation, especially in northern areas. For the last day of March, that's pretty painful. At least it's not a big snowstorm like we saw a few weeks ago.
Thoughts go out to those effected by the midwest tornadoes yesterday, and those that will be in the coming days
Today in weather history- March 27, 1984- Cotulla, TX records the all time March high temperature for the United States by reaching an incredible 108 degrees. Additionally...
March 27, 1890- A major tornado strikes downtown Louisville, KY, and kills 78 people and does $4 million (1890USD) in damage.
Monday, March 20, 2017
3/20- Still Cool For March
Good Monday all-
Happy Spring! It arrived at 6:29 this morning, and today that means we have 12 hours each of day and night. As for the weather...it's going to be feeling more like winter for much of the week, especially Wednesday, when I think that most of us actually manage to stay below freezing!! That's almost ludicrous for this late in March, and lows will likely be in the single digits on Thursday morning...ouch. Otherwise, much of the week looks like it will be in the 40s to 50s, with the only chance of 60s coming on Saturday, but just when you think you have it made, there is a threat for a winter storm of a decent size for the later part of this weekend. At the moment, it would most likely be an icy mix...but that can be worse than snow...so let's keep our eyes on it- but that's all we can do for now as it is a week away!
Happy Spring! It arrived at 6:29 this morning, and today that means we have 12 hours each of day and night. As for the weather...it's going to be feeling more like winter for much of the week, especially Wednesday, when I think that most of us actually manage to stay below freezing!! That's almost ludicrous for this late in March, and lows will likely be in the single digits on Thursday morning...ouch. Otherwise, much of the week looks like it will be in the 40s to 50s, with the only chance of 60s coming on Saturday, but just when you think you have it made, there is a threat for a winter storm of a decent size for the later part of this weekend. At the moment, it would most likely be an icy mix...but that can be worse than snow...so let's keep our eyes on it- but that's all we can do for now as it is a week away!
Friday, March 17, 2017
3/17- A Bit Clearer Forecast
Happy FRIDAY and St. Patrick's Day everyone!
Today is going to be just fine, albeit cold, but the big story is of course the snow for the weekend. The models are coming into a bit better agreement, with a general range of 0-5". I'll take the middle road here and say that most areas can expect 1-3" of snow. This could very much change, as this type of system- called a Norlun Trough- is notoriously difficult to forecast. It's happened a few times with these things where the forecast was 2-4" and I got 15"...so that's how finnicky these can be. In any case, early next week looks fine, with some showers possible on Tuesday. This busts us out of the pattern we've been in, and tomorrow night *could* be the last significant snowfall of the season but...we shall see!
Today in weather history- March 17, 1990- Record flooding occurs in the deep south, with as much as 10.63" of rain falling in Mobile, AL in a 24 hour period. In the end, 22 people are killed, with 13 of them in Alabama.
Today is going to be just fine, albeit cold, but the big story is of course the snow for the weekend. The models are coming into a bit better agreement, with a general range of 0-5". I'll take the middle road here and say that most areas can expect 1-3" of snow. This could very much change, as this type of system- called a Norlun Trough- is notoriously difficult to forecast. It's happened a few times with these things where the forecast was 2-4" and I got 15"...so that's how finnicky these can be. In any case, early next week looks fine, with some showers possible on Tuesday. This busts us out of the pattern we've been in, and tomorrow night *could* be the last significant snowfall of the season but...we shall see!
Today in weather history- March 17, 1990- Record flooding occurs in the deep south, with as much as 10.63" of rain falling in Mobile, AL in a 24 hour period. In the end, 22 people are killed, with 13 of them in Alabama.
Thursday, March 16, 2017
3/16- STORM WATCH- Vast Disagreement
Good Thursday all-
We have model disagreement in the extreme for a storm coming just two days from now, which is a change from yesterday. In a bizarre twist, the GFS model has developed Saturday's system off the coast and just near enough to deliver a moderate to major snowfall on Saturday afternoon and Sunday on the order of a statewide 4 to 8 inches or so, while the Euro has decided to go with about 2-4" south of I-84 and 1-2" north of there. The most likely result is probably somewhere in between...so for now I will go with 3-6" of snow with locally higher amounts possible in the southern third or so of the state. That said, I would absolutely love model agreement so...the high end of a 5-10" snowfall statewide...and the low end of a 1-2" type situation for everyone...both remain on the table as about one-in-four chances. Hmm...we'll just have to wait and see.
Thankfully, we have no weather worries until then (unless you hate cold weather) with highs in the 30s, lows in the low 20s, and mostly sunny skies both today and tomorrow. The early part of next week looks dry, but we should watch Tuesday for the risk of some mixed precipitation.
The next name on the winter storm list is Frank. It is noteworthy that we have only used the "F" name one time in the last 21 years...so it would be quite an unusual event!
Today in weather history- March 16, 1975- The biggest single snowstorm in Oregon state history drops 119" on Crater Lake.
Additionally, March 16, 1986- A rare tornado very nearly hits Disneyland, CA...but manages to blow off roofs as near as one and a half miles away. Nearly a disaster, but fortunately averted.
We have model disagreement in the extreme for a storm coming just two days from now, which is a change from yesterday. In a bizarre twist, the GFS model has developed Saturday's system off the coast and just near enough to deliver a moderate to major snowfall on Saturday afternoon and Sunday on the order of a statewide 4 to 8 inches or so, while the Euro has decided to go with about 2-4" south of I-84 and 1-2" north of there. The most likely result is probably somewhere in between...so for now I will go with 3-6" of snow with locally higher amounts possible in the southern third or so of the state. That said, I would absolutely love model agreement so...the high end of a 5-10" snowfall statewide...and the low end of a 1-2" type situation for everyone...both remain on the table as about one-in-four chances. Hmm...we'll just have to wait and see.
Thankfully, we have no weather worries until then (unless you hate cold weather) with highs in the 30s, lows in the low 20s, and mostly sunny skies both today and tomorrow. The early part of next week looks dry, but we should watch Tuesday for the risk of some mixed precipitation.
The next name on the winter storm list is Frank. It is noteworthy that we have only used the "F" name one time in the last 21 years...so it would be quite an unusual event!
Today in weather history- March 16, 1975- The biggest single snowstorm in Oregon state history drops 119" on Crater Lake.
Additionally, March 16, 1986- A rare tornado very nearly hits Disneyland, CA...but manages to blow off roofs as near as one and a half miles away. Nearly a disaster, but fortunately averted.
Wednesday, March 15, 2017
3/15- Looking Back on Eugene, Ahead to the Weekend
Good Wednesday all-
Depending on where you are, Eugene was everything from a bust to a historic storm. The mix line made its' way inland much further than anticipated, but that didn't matter as portions of Litchfield County picked up some 23" of snow, while the shoreline it mattered greatly as New Haven wound up with a paltry 5". Of all the towns in Connecticut, only Waterbury came close to verifying blizzard conditions, missing out by about 2mph at 12PM from doing so. That said, the storm was memorable indeed, and we'll be digging out today!
The upcoming weeks looks cold (temps primarily in the 30s) and dry except Saturday, which looks a bit snowy, especially in the morning, when a light accumulation of 2" or so of snow is possible. No major storms in sight for the time being.
Today in weather history- March 15, 1941- A massive blizzard strikes the northern plains, with winds gusting to over 85mph in North Dakota. Drifts were as high as 12ft, and 71 people were killed in the storm, most of them travelling home on a Saturday night.
Depending on where you are, Eugene was everything from a bust to a historic storm. The mix line made its' way inland much further than anticipated, but that didn't matter as portions of Litchfield County picked up some 23" of snow, while the shoreline it mattered greatly as New Haven wound up with a paltry 5". Of all the towns in Connecticut, only Waterbury came close to verifying blizzard conditions, missing out by about 2mph at 12PM from doing so. That said, the storm was memorable indeed, and we'll be digging out today!
The upcoming weeks looks cold (temps primarily in the 30s) and dry except Saturday, which looks a bit snowy, especially in the morning, when a light accumulation of 2" or so of snow is possible. No major storms in sight for the time being.
Today in weather history- March 15, 1941- A massive blizzard strikes the northern plains, with winds gusting to over 85mph in North Dakota. Drifts were as high as 12ft, and 71 people were killed in the storm, most of them travelling home on a Saturday night.
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
3/14- Eat Some Pi as You Watch Blizzard Eugene
Good Tuesday all-
Eugene is here, enjoy the show! I am fine with the forecast I issued last night with one exception. I now expect even northeastern CT to mix, so northeast CT sees their totals lowered to 8-14". Otherwise, a historic blizzard for everyone west of 91 for sure, so enjoy the show as we head for history. Someone in CT probably will get 30" today...and it could be anybody that doesn't mix.
Eugene is here, enjoy the show! I am fine with the forecast I issued last night with one exception. I now expect even northeastern CT to mix, so northeast CT sees their totals lowered to 8-14". Otherwise, a historic blizzard for everyone west of 91 for sure, so enjoy the show as we head for history. Someone in CT probably will get 30" today...and it could be anybody that doesn't mix.
Monday, March 13, 2017
Afternoon Update on Blizzard Eugene
Greetings everyone-
A BLIZZARD WARNING is up for the entire state except for the shoreline of Middlesex and New London Counties
Get ready for SNOW! The second biggest snowstorm ever recorded in the month of March is on the way to Connecticut today, and it's nearly here! The trend for today has been to bring the storm west. What this means is that more mixing is introduced to immediate shoreline locations and areas east of I-91. While it is possible the mix line could cross further than that, but by the time it arrives in western areas, the storm will be practically if not entirely over, so it would be very brief. The other trend on the models has been to increase totals with widespread totals of around 2ft. Thus, for areas that remain all or 4/5 snow, which are areas that are west of I-91 or in the northern counties, with the exception of literally the first two towns from the shoreline- I am forced to increase my totals to 20-30" with locally a 32" or so total not out of the question. For other areas, I will reduce totals slightly with shoreline communities and southeast Connecticut being able to expect 8 to 14 inches southeast...and 12 to 18 inches southwest.
Wow. This is one for the ages...stay safe everyone.
A BLIZZARD WARNING is up for the entire state except for the shoreline of Middlesex and New London Counties
Get ready for SNOW! The second biggest snowstorm ever recorded in the month of March is on the way to Connecticut today, and it's nearly here! The trend for today has been to bring the storm west. What this means is that more mixing is introduced to immediate shoreline locations and areas east of I-91. While it is possible the mix line could cross further than that, but by the time it arrives in western areas, the storm will be practically if not entirely over, so it would be very brief. The other trend on the models has been to increase totals with widespread totals of around 2ft. Thus, for areas that remain all or 4/5 snow, which are areas that are west of I-91 or in the northern counties, with the exception of literally the first two towns from the shoreline- I am forced to increase my totals to 20-30" with locally a 32" or so total not out of the question. For other areas, I will reduce totals slightly with shoreline communities and southeast Connecticut being able to expect 8 to 14 inches southeast...and 12 to 18 inches southwest.
Wow. This is one for the ages...stay safe everyone.
3/13- I Dream of Eugene- Storm for the Ages Hits Tonight
Good Monday all-
All of southern CT, except for the immediate shoreline of Middlesex & New London Counties, are under a BLIZZARD WARNING. Everyone else is under a WINTER STORM WARNING.
History is in the making folks, and I do not say that easily. A truly epic blizzard is on the way for Connecticut. Two storms appear to phase perfectly, and the end result will be something that we have only seen a handful of times in the history of our state. Winds will gust to nearly 60mph tomorrow, whiteout conditions will occur, the worst of the storm will be from 8-8. So what do I think for accumulations? Well, it won't be pretty for all of you!
For the immediate shoreline (within 4-5 miles, and perhaps a bit more in SE CT)- 6-14". The big change from yesterday is that the threat of mixing is being introduced with a more westward track. Thus, totals could be limited in this area, but still nothing to sneeze at.
For everyone else that lives EAST of I-91- 12-20" with locally up to 2ft possible. All snow for this region, but you'll get slightly less than your friends to the west due to the new track of the system.
For everyone else that lives WEST of I-91- 18-25" totals widespread, with locally as high as 30". This is the jackpot area for this storm as it takes a perfect track for the region. People living here can expect gusts to 60mph and tons of snow.
It doesn't matter where you live. This storm is truly one for the history books. A few notable records in jeopardy are this:
In Hartford, the all-time biggest snowstorm is 24" set on January 11, 2011. Certainly it will be a top 5, but could this record fall? Not impossible!
There has never been, at any location in our state, two blizzards in the same winter. This will almost certainly fall, as we will almost certainly verify blizzard for the entire region.
Complete preparations today- the snow won't begin until 2 AM or so- and then...it will come down hard until about 7 PM. There are no longer any ways around the system, and the Euro and GFS are now out of range. We're in the NAM and short range models wheelhouse now, and after today even they will be irrelevant. Then tomorrow, sit back, relax, and watch the record breaking flakes fly.
No need for today in weather history today as today IS weather history. Stay safe folks.
All of southern CT, except for the immediate shoreline of Middlesex & New London Counties, are under a BLIZZARD WARNING. Everyone else is under a WINTER STORM WARNING.
History is in the making folks, and I do not say that easily. A truly epic blizzard is on the way for Connecticut. Two storms appear to phase perfectly, and the end result will be something that we have only seen a handful of times in the history of our state. Winds will gust to nearly 60mph tomorrow, whiteout conditions will occur, the worst of the storm will be from 8-8. So what do I think for accumulations? Well, it won't be pretty for all of you!
For the immediate shoreline (within 4-5 miles, and perhaps a bit more in SE CT)- 6-14". The big change from yesterday is that the threat of mixing is being introduced with a more westward track. Thus, totals could be limited in this area, but still nothing to sneeze at.
For everyone else that lives EAST of I-91- 12-20" with locally up to 2ft possible. All snow for this region, but you'll get slightly less than your friends to the west due to the new track of the system.
For everyone else that lives WEST of I-91- 18-25" totals widespread, with locally as high as 30". This is the jackpot area for this storm as it takes a perfect track for the region. People living here can expect gusts to 60mph and tons of snow.
It doesn't matter where you live. This storm is truly one for the history books. A few notable records in jeopardy are this:
In Hartford, the all-time biggest snowstorm is 24" set on January 11, 2011. Certainly it will be a top 5, but could this record fall? Not impossible!
There has never been, at any location in our state, two blizzards in the same winter. This will almost certainly fall, as we will almost certainly verify blizzard for the entire region.
Complete preparations today- the snow won't begin until 2 AM or so- and then...it will come down hard until about 7 PM. There are no longer any ways around the system, and the Euro and GFS are now out of range. We're in the NAM and short range models wheelhouse now, and after today even they will be irrelevant. Then tomorrow, sit back, relax, and watch the record breaking flakes fly.
No need for today in weather history today as today IS weather history. Stay safe folks.
Sunday, March 12, 2017
SEVERE STORM WARNING- Historic March Blizzard Eugene
Good Sunday all-
Here we go- a BLIZZARD WATCH is up for southern CT, and a WINTER STORM WATCH is up for everyone else.
Well, here we go- a historic blizzard is on the way to our region with monster snow totals and very strong winds. I expect scattered power outages, well over a foot of snow, and whiteout conditions all day Tuesday. The east trend yesterday has stopped, and in fact has come back to the west a little. This is close to the worst possible scenario for us here in Connecticut. One model...the euro...is showing 2ft+ for pretty much the entire state. Although I do not necessarily buy that solution quite yet as the GFS is showing something else, it's entirely possible. That said, a reasonable forecast at this time of 15-30" with locally higher amounts is not unreasonable. To play it safe...I will go 16-25", which is about halfway between the GFS and Euro solutions. If the Euro is right...I would be going 2 to 3 feet...and if the GFS is right, I would be going 1 to 2 feet. Either way, it's an epic amount of snow for this time of year, and will be one that we remember for a long, long, long time. Eugene will be one to remember!!
^^^0z Euro which shows essentially the worst possible outcome for the storm in CT. Snowfall maps are finnicky, so you can add a few inches to these, and doing so would put a bullseye of over 2 feet in western CT. This model is putting out about 2" of liquid. Using a 10:1 ratio (which looks to be about right here), that is 20", but with banding, higher amounts are very possible.
What is really going to be a crucial factor here is where heavier bands set up. Someone could get 3-5" hour snowfall bands...and that will really cause them to fly by the snow forecasts.
As for timing, it's essentially an all day Tuesday type deal from about 2 AM to 2 AM Wednesday. We'll see what happens. I'll have the latest on Blizzard Eugene tomorrow morning.
Here we go- a BLIZZARD WATCH is up for southern CT, and a WINTER STORM WATCH is up for everyone else.
Well, here we go- a historic blizzard is on the way to our region with monster snow totals and very strong winds. I expect scattered power outages, well over a foot of snow, and whiteout conditions all day Tuesday. The east trend yesterday has stopped, and in fact has come back to the west a little. This is close to the worst possible scenario for us here in Connecticut. One model...the euro...is showing 2ft+ for pretty much the entire state. Although I do not necessarily buy that solution quite yet as the GFS is showing something else, it's entirely possible. That said, a reasonable forecast at this time of 15-30" with locally higher amounts is not unreasonable. To play it safe...I will go 16-25", which is about halfway between the GFS and Euro solutions. If the Euro is right...I would be going 2 to 3 feet...and if the GFS is right, I would be going 1 to 2 feet. Either way, it's an epic amount of snow for this time of year, and will be one that we remember for a long, long, long time. Eugene will be one to remember!!
^^^0z Euro which shows essentially the worst possible outcome for the storm in CT. Snowfall maps are finnicky, so you can add a few inches to these, and doing so would put a bullseye of over 2 feet in western CT. This model is putting out about 2" of liquid. Using a 10:1 ratio (which looks to be about right here), that is 20", but with banding, higher amounts are very possible.
What is really going to be a crucial factor here is where heavier bands set up. Someone could get 3-5" hour snowfall bands...and that will really cause them to fly by the snow forecasts.
As for timing, it's essentially an all day Tuesday type deal from about 2 AM to 2 AM Wednesday. We'll see what happens. I'll have the latest on Blizzard Eugene tomorrow morning.
Saturday, March 11, 2017
3/11- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Frigid Weather to a Historic Blizzard
Good Saturday all-
Oh my goodness- is this going to be one to remember. Yes, it's cold this morning (and it will be tomorrow too). This is remarkable for mid-March, but it's nothing we haven't dealt with in January.
The models are coming into agreement on a path of the Tuesday system- and it's directly over the 40/70 benchmark. What does this mean for our area? Well...it's literally the worst possible path the storm could take. A track over the benchmark by a storm that will be the pressure equivalent of a category 2 hurricane will mean blizzard conditions and snow that will be measured in feet...and since this is currently suggested by the Euro and GFS and CMC models.
The result of this? A 24-30 hour long blizzard here in CT, with snowfall totals of generally 15-30" with locally 40" possible...in a scenario not unlike the Blizzard of 2013. Ouch, This looks like truly one for the ages, and I encourage people to be ready. By tomorrow, Blizzard Watches will likely go up for our area. I beg everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast. My thinking for my accumulation forecast is to expect around 2" as an average amount of liquid equivalent. Using a 10:1 ratio, this suggests 20 inches of snow. However, based on the dynamics of the storm, I am thinking more of a 12:1 ratio is possible. Which nets me 2ft...which is exactly in the middle of my forecast range. The problem with using this though is that models tend to not account for banding. In fact, they look similar to what they looked leading up to 2013, and the evolution is nearly identical. Thus, I think someone in New England could end up with 3.5" of liquid...or roughly 3.5 feet of snow (which would be 42"). Thus, forecasting 15-30" with up to 40" seems perfectly reasonable at this stage in the game, and I shall do so. Please keep an eye on this forecast- it could be one for the record books.
Hartford's all time record snowfall is 24" from the January 12-13, 2011 storm (WS Benedict), as they got dry slotted in 2013. This one could be very close indeed. Be prepared to be snowed in for several days as the clean up from this system is going to be very difficult and long.
Oh my goodness- is this going to be one to remember. Yes, it's cold this morning (and it will be tomorrow too). This is remarkable for mid-March, but it's nothing we haven't dealt with in January.
The models are coming into agreement on a path of the Tuesday system- and it's directly over the 40/70 benchmark. What does this mean for our area? Well...it's literally the worst possible path the storm could take. A track over the benchmark by a storm that will be the pressure equivalent of a category 2 hurricane will mean blizzard conditions and snow that will be measured in feet...and since this is currently suggested by the Euro and GFS and CMC models.
The result of this? A 24-30 hour long blizzard here in CT, with snowfall totals of generally 15-30" with locally 40" possible...in a scenario not unlike the Blizzard of 2013. Ouch, This looks like truly one for the ages, and I encourage people to be ready. By tomorrow, Blizzard Watches will likely go up for our area. I beg everyone to keep a close eye on the forecast. My thinking for my accumulation forecast is to expect around 2" as an average amount of liquid equivalent. Using a 10:1 ratio, this suggests 20 inches of snow. However, based on the dynamics of the storm, I am thinking more of a 12:1 ratio is possible. Which nets me 2ft...which is exactly in the middle of my forecast range. The problem with using this though is that models tend to not account for banding. In fact, they look similar to what they looked leading up to 2013, and the evolution is nearly identical. Thus, I think someone in New England could end up with 3.5" of liquid...or roughly 3.5 feet of snow (which would be 42"). Thus, forecasting 15-30" with up to 40" seems perfectly reasonable at this stage in the game, and I shall do so. Please keep an eye on this forecast- it could be one for the record books.
Hartford's all time record snowfall is 24" from the January 12-13, 2011 storm (WS Benedict), as they got dry slotted in 2013. This one could be very close indeed. Be prepared to be snowed in for several days as the clean up from this system is going to be very difficult and long.
Friday, March 10, 2017
3/10- SEVERE STORM WATCH- Extreme Snowstorm Possible
Happy Friday all-
I think it's safe to say we are in big trouble now for Tuesday as the models continue to show pretty much exactly the same thing they showed two days ago in the morning, which is close to the worst possible scenario for Tuesday. Let's talk about today's snow first and then...we'll have some fun.
First off, the entire state is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, except for New London County, which has a WINTER STORM WARNING. My thoughts have not changed since yesterday whatsoever. I think 2-5" is a fine call for areas south of I-84, with 1-3" north of there. This is highly variable as higher totals are possible with a slightly different track, as are lower ones, etc. but I have moderate confidence in these figures as they fall closely into line with what the models have shown for several days. Most schools in Connecticut are closed- and that's probably the right call with the snow expected to continue until 2 or so this afternoon.
Now onto the bigger issue- Tuesday. I cannot stress enough how big the potential of this system is. There's a path to this being the #1 snowstorm all time in Hartford...and a top 5 snowstorm all time for everyone in CT since at least 1800. I don't say this lightly, but that's the kind of potential we're looking at. The models are now all in agreement on- let's say it straight- a historic blizzard for Tuesday and Wednesday. There are a number of things that are worrisome. To have some fun, I will compare recent model runs to another storm, and you will see the similarities. See if you can guess which one it is...First off, it's a combination of two storms, which will cause the storm to be very powerful indeed.
^^^0z European Model
^^A similar storm to the current evolution
Secondly the storm is likely to take an ideal path, either directly over or very near the dreaded 40/70 benchmark
^^Satellite image of the same storm over the benchmark
Finally, there is what we call a "blocking high" to the east, which cause the storm to move reallly slllooooow, and cause it to last for greater than 24 hours- the storm pictured lasted for about 27 hours.
If you haven't guessed it, the answer is...
which produced scenes like
February 8-9. 2013, which of course is the legendary storm that dropped 40" of snow on the I-91 corridor. The potential, and I stress potential, as everything has to go right for this to happen, but the potential does exist for a storm that produces a very similar result indeed for much of Connecticut. Please, please, please watch the system very closely as we appear to be heading for a historic blizzard by the middle of next week. Things can change, but with the models having been in agreement for days...time is running out.
Remember that Sunday is daylight savings time- please set your clocks forward one hour. I will be watching the forecast over the weekend and do daily updates as we head towards a day that we may remember for a long, long time.
I think it's safe to say we are in big trouble now for Tuesday as the models continue to show pretty much exactly the same thing they showed two days ago in the morning, which is close to the worst possible scenario for Tuesday. Let's talk about today's snow first and then...we'll have some fun.
First off, the entire state is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, except for New London County, which has a WINTER STORM WARNING. My thoughts have not changed since yesterday whatsoever. I think 2-5" is a fine call for areas south of I-84, with 1-3" north of there. This is highly variable as higher totals are possible with a slightly different track, as are lower ones, etc. but I have moderate confidence in these figures as they fall closely into line with what the models have shown for several days. Most schools in Connecticut are closed- and that's probably the right call with the snow expected to continue until 2 or so this afternoon.
Now onto the bigger issue- Tuesday. I cannot stress enough how big the potential of this system is. There's a path to this being the #1 snowstorm all time in Hartford...and a top 5 snowstorm all time for everyone in CT since at least 1800. I don't say this lightly, but that's the kind of potential we're looking at. The models are now all in agreement on- let's say it straight- a historic blizzard for Tuesday and Wednesday. There are a number of things that are worrisome. To have some fun, I will compare recent model runs to another storm, and you will see the similarities. See if you can guess which one it is...First off, it's a combination of two storms, which will cause the storm to be very powerful indeed.
^^^0z European Model
^^A similar storm to the current evolution
Secondly the storm is likely to take an ideal path, either directly over or very near the dreaded 40/70 benchmark
^^Satellite image of the same storm over the benchmark
Finally, there is what we call a "blocking high" to the east, which cause the storm to move reallly slllooooow, and cause it to last for greater than 24 hours- the storm pictured lasted for about 27 hours.
If you haven't guessed it, the answer is...
which produced scenes like
February 8-9. 2013, which of course is the legendary storm that dropped 40" of snow on the I-91 corridor. The potential, and I stress potential, as everything has to go right for this to happen, but the potential does exist for a storm that produces a very similar result indeed for much of Connecticut. Please, please, please watch the system very closely as we appear to be heading for a historic blizzard by the middle of next week. Things can change, but with the models having been in agreement for days...time is running out.
Remember that Sunday is daylight savings time- please set your clocks forward one hour. I will be watching the forecast over the weekend and do daily updates as we head towards a day that we may remember for a long, long time.
Thursday, March 9, 2017
3/9- STORM WATCH- Medium Tomorrow, Big Tuesday
Good Thursday all-
All of CT is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
Oh boy, are things about to get interesting. Let's start with tonight, where I am increasing the totals from yesterday. I am now going with 3 to 6 inches of snow south of I-84, with 2-4" north of there. Thus, it's going to be quite a disruptive system as the bulk of it will fall directly during the AM commute. Thus, I predict that all schools south of I-84 and most north of there will be completely closed tomorrow, as the timing is just horrendous.
The weekend looks cold & dry, but then we have a close call for Tuesday. My thoughts have not changed- all the pieces for something historic are in place, and we have to watch it very closely. Models are a bit less aggressive this morning...by only giving 1-2 feet of snow instead of 2-4 feet. Who cares, really...that's still a very disruptive event! We will be watching very closely indeed over the next several days, as things can and will change, and everything from partly cloudy to a blizzard remains on the table and I expect this to remain the case until Sunday at least.
All of CT is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
Oh boy, are things about to get interesting. Let's start with tonight, where I am increasing the totals from yesterday. I am now going with 3 to 6 inches of snow south of I-84, with 2-4" north of there. Thus, it's going to be quite a disruptive system as the bulk of it will fall directly during the AM commute. Thus, I predict that all schools south of I-84 and most north of there will be completely closed tomorrow, as the timing is just horrendous.
The weekend looks cold & dry, but then we have a close call for Tuesday. My thoughts have not changed- all the pieces for something historic are in place, and we have to watch it very closely. Models are a bit less aggressive this morning...by only giving 1-2 feet of snow instead of 2-4 feet. Who cares, really...that's still a very disruptive event! We will be watching very closely indeed over the next several days, as things can and will change, and everything from partly cloudy to a blizzard remains on the table and I expect this to remain the case until Sunday at least.
Wednesday, March 8, 2017
3/8- STORM WATCH- Think We Were Done With Snow? Mwahahahaha!
Good Wednesday all-
Well, did someone pray for snow? We are, remarkably, heading for what now appears to be the snowiest pattern of the season...and I'm not kidding...in mid-March. This is more than a bit strange, but there's lots to talk about.
First things first though- today looks absolutely beautiful, despite some showers through the morning, with highs of 60 or so. Unfortunately, this is the end of the warmth for a long, long time. Tomorrow looks significantly cooler before we run into problem #1- Friday.
The models have begun to be quite a bit more aggressive with the snow on Friday. What looked like a narrow miss to the south now looks like a narrow hit instead, which would drop a solid 2-5" snowfall on southern Connecticut. This seems like a very reasonable solution, and will be my going forecast for now. We'll go with 2-4" south of Waterbury as an average...and 1-2" north of there. Not a big deal, but it's going to happen perfectly during the day, so expect some schools to close in southern CT as the roads will be snarled up for most of the day.
The weekend looks good, but cold, as does Monday. By Tuesday however...oh my is this going to be a long week. A clipper system and a storm developing off the southeast coast appear to come together off the east coast somewhere. At the moment, it appears this will occur just off the coast of New Jersey. If, and this is a big if, this occurs, the end result would be something that we would never forget- an absolutely monster blizzard with multiple feet of snow and howling winds out of the northeast. Things CAN AND WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN but...seriously...be aware that all the pieces could be coming together. The pattern is pretty similar to what spawned the Blizzard of '13...and the high end potential of the storm...I hate to say this so far out...is something not at all dissimilar. See below...
^^^06z GFS showing a historic Blizzard for our area from Tuesday at noon to Wednesday night. Such a storm would produce a general 20-40" of snow with locally up to 4 feet, 30-50mph sustained winds...ouch
There's loads of time to watch this but...be careful and watch this as this would also likely be a fluffy, powdery snow- which is tough to do on March 14. That said, the freaky thing? The single greatest snowstorm in Connecticut history (by far) was March 11-14, 1888...so it is possible!
Well, did someone pray for snow? We are, remarkably, heading for what now appears to be the snowiest pattern of the season...and I'm not kidding...in mid-March. This is more than a bit strange, but there's lots to talk about.
First things first though- today looks absolutely beautiful, despite some showers through the morning, with highs of 60 or so. Unfortunately, this is the end of the warmth for a long, long time. Tomorrow looks significantly cooler before we run into problem #1- Friday.
The models have begun to be quite a bit more aggressive with the snow on Friday. What looked like a narrow miss to the south now looks like a narrow hit instead, which would drop a solid 2-5" snowfall on southern Connecticut. This seems like a very reasonable solution, and will be my going forecast for now. We'll go with 2-4" south of Waterbury as an average...and 1-2" north of there. Not a big deal, but it's going to happen perfectly during the day, so expect some schools to close in southern CT as the roads will be snarled up for most of the day.
The weekend looks good, but cold, as does Monday. By Tuesday however...oh my is this going to be a long week. A clipper system and a storm developing off the southeast coast appear to come together off the east coast somewhere. At the moment, it appears this will occur just off the coast of New Jersey. If, and this is a big if, this occurs, the end result would be something that we would never forget- an absolutely monster blizzard with multiple feet of snow and howling winds out of the northeast. Things CAN AND WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN but...seriously...be aware that all the pieces could be coming together. The pattern is pretty similar to what spawned the Blizzard of '13...and the high end potential of the storm...I hate to say this so far out...is something not at all dissimilar. See below...
^^^06z GFS showing a historic Blizzard for our area from Tuesday at noon to Wednesday night. Such a storm would produce a general 20-40" of snow with locally up to 4 feet, 30-50mph sustained winds...ouch
There's loads of time to watch this but...be careful and watch this as this would also likely be a fluffy, powdery snow- which is tough to do on March 14. That said, the freaky thing? The single greatest snowstorm in Connecticut history (by far) was March 11-14, 1888...so it is possible!
Tuesday, March 7, 2017
3/7- Snowy Pattern Ahead
Good Tuesday all-
No change to my thoughts from yesterday so...I shan't bore you except by typing this quick update. Rain on and off until about noon tomorrow, followed by a quiet Thursday & maybe some light snow Friday. Weekend for now looks dry unless a coastal storm comes a bit further north than currently expected on Sunday. The biggest storm threat in the next week is one week from today- next Tuesday the 14th.
Monday, March 6, 2017
3/6- Sorry for Missing So Long...Beautiful Start to the Week
Good Monday all-
We have a very, very interesting week of weather ahead of us this week and it's going to be a wild ride for the next week or so. Today is a wonderful, wonderful day with highs in the mid 50s and bright sunshine, but enjoy it while it lasts. Tomorrow will be even warmer, but rain is likely from about tomorrow morning until Wednesday at about noon. Beyond that, thankfully, we clear things out, but see temperatures plummet, which sets up a very interesting scenario for the weekend. First off, a clipper system is going to come close to Connecticut on Friday. Models disagree on the extent that this will bother us- one model says nothing, another says 2-5" of snow for Friday. I believe each option is roughly equally likely...so I won't officially forecast anything yet. A bigger concern potentially lies on Sunday or Monday, when a monster coastal storm is going to make a run at us. At the moment...it appears that New Jersey could get absolutely crushed by this system with up to a foot of snow. Exactly how far north the system makes it makes a large impact as to whether our state receives 2-4" or a foot or more of snow...so we'll be watching it closely. It's a very active time here in CT...so let's see what happens!
Today in weather history- March 6, 1954- Milton, FL picks up the state record snowfall of 4". Additionally, Tallahassee ties their daily record of 2.1"- yes, it's absolutely possible (very unusual and tough to do, but not impossible!!)
We have a very, very interesting week of weather ahead of us this week and it's going to be a wild ride for the next week or so. Today is a wonderful, wonderful day with highs in the mid 50s and bright sunshine, but enjoy it while it lasts. Tomorrow will be even warmer, but rain is likely from about tomorrow morning until Wednesday at about noon. Beyond that, thankfully, we clear things out, but see temperatures plummet, which sets up a very interesting scenario for the weekend. First off, a clipper system is going to come close to Connecticut on Friday. Models disagree on the extent that this will bother us- one model says nothing, another says 2-5" of snow for Friday. I believe each option is roughly equally likely...so I won't officially forecast anything yet. A bigger concern potentially lies on Sunday or Monday, when a monster coastal storm is going to make a run at us. At the moment...it appears that New Jersey could get absolutely crushed by this system with up to a foot of snow. Exactly how far north the system makes it makes a large impact as to whether our state receives 2-4" or a foot or more of snow...so we'll be watching it closely. It's a very active time here in CT...so let's see what happens!
Today in weather history- March 6, 1954- Milton, FL picks up the state record snowfall of 4". Additionally, Tallahassee ties their daily record of 2.1"- yes, it's absolutely possible (very unusual and tough to do, but not impossible!!)
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
3/1- March Begins With Severe Weather
Good Wednesday all-
A WIND ADVISORY is up for the entire state. Also, the SPC has placed all of CT in a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, which is relatively rare- even in the summer!
The risk of thunderstorms is remarkably high for the first day of March. Truly. There is a risk of every item you would expect in a severe weather outbreak, which includes large hail...damaging winds...frequent lightning...and even, yes, tornadoes. The worst of the severe weather will likely be in the late afternoon hours, which is very typical for these situations, but what is amazing is the time of year. Hopefully we can get through the day without much damage, but the situation is pretty darn volatile so we certainly need to keep eyes to the skies. This setup is far more impressive than the setup that spawned the Conway, MA tornado last weekend, so...be careful.
Otherwise, the snow threat for Friday has been reduced to a squall or two...but we are not done with snow, as the first half to two-thirds of March looks to feature significantly below average temperatures. Not today though!
'
Today is the first day of meteorological spring, which will last from now until May 31. This winter was the 4th warmest on record, but featured well above average snowfall...go figure.
Today in weather history- March 1, 1910- The deadliest avalanche in US history strikes a train near Wellington Station, WA, sending over a cliff into a canyon and burying it under snow, killing over 100 people.
A WIND ADVISORY is up for the entire state. Also, the SPC has placed all of CT in a SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, which is relatively rare- even in the summer!
The risk of thunderstorms is remarkably high for the first day of March. Truly. There is a risk of every item you would expect in a severe weather outbreak, which includes large hail...damaging winds...frequent lightning...and even, yes, tornadoes. The worst of the severe weather will likely be in the late afternoon hours, which is very typical for these situations, but what is amazing is the time of year. Hopefully we can get through the day without much damage, but the situation is pretty darn volatile so we certainly need to keep eyes to the skies. This setup is far more impressive than the setup that spawned the Conway, MA tornado last weekend, so...be careful.
Otherwise, the snow threat for Friday has been reduced to a squall or two...but we are not done with snow, as the first half to two-thirds of March looks to feature significantly below average temperatures. Not today though!
'Today is the first day of meteorological spring, which will last from now until May 31. This winter was the 4th warmest on record, but featured well above average snowfall...go figure.
Today in weather history- March 1, 1910- The deadliest avalanche in US history strikes a train near Wellington Station, WA, sending over a cliff into a canyon and burying it under snow, killing over 100 people.
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