I think it's safe to say we are in big trouble now for Tuesday as the models continue to show pretty much exactly the same thing they showed two days ago in the morning, which is close to the worst possible scenario for Tuesday. Let's talk about today's snow first and then...we'll have some fun.
First off, the entire state is under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, except for New London County, which has a WINTER STORM WARNING. My thoughts have not changed since yesterday whatsoever. I think 2-5" is a fine call for areas south of I-84, with 1-3" north of there. This is highly variable as higher totals are possible with a slightly different track, as are lower ones, etc. but I have moderate confidence in these figures as they fall closely into line with what the models have shown for several days. Most schools in Connecticut are closed- and that's probably the right call with the snow expected to continue until 2 or so this afternoon.
Now onto the bigger issue- Tuesday. I cannot stress enough how big the potential of this system is. There's a path to this being the #1 snowstorm all time in Hartford...and a top 5 snowstorm all time for everyone in CT since at least 1800. I don't say this lightly, but that's the kind of potential we're looking at. The models are now all in agreement on- let's say it straight- a historic blizzard for Tuesday and Wednesday. There are a number of things that are worrisome. To have some fun, I will compare recent model runs to another storm, and you will see the similarities. See if you can guess which one it is...First off, it's a combination of two storms, which will cause the storm to be very powerful indeed.
^^^0z European Model
^^A similar storm to the current evolution
Secondly the storm is likely to take an ideal path, either directly over or very near the dreaded 40/70 benchmark
^^Satellite image of the same storm over the benchmark
Finally, there is what we call a "blocking high" to the east, which cause the storm to move reallly slllooooow, and cause it to last for greater than 24 hours- the storm pictured lasted for about 27 hours.
If you haven't guessed it, the answer is...
which produced scenes like
February 8-9. 2013, which of course is the legendary storm that dropped 40" of snow on the I-91 corridor. The potential, and I stress potential, as everything has to go right for this to happen, but the potential does exist for a storm that produces a very similar result indeed for much of Connecticut. Please, please, please watch the system very closely as we appear to be heading for a historic blizzard by the middle of next week. Things can change, but with the models having been in agreement for days...time is running out.
Remember that Sunday is daylight savings time- please set your clocks forward one hour. I will be watching the forecast over the weekend and do daily updates as we head towards a day that we may remember for a long, long time.
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